Hold on to your ass. Opec meets on December 4th. This will be "the big one". There will be many "rumors" this week. Probably not a good idea to trade off any of them.
Traders want to sell a lot of oil "short" but are scared of Opec (read Saudis) making a counter intuitive decision in that regard. So price action might be flat up to that date.
If they, Opec/Saudis, announce no change in policy, oil begins descent to a $20 handle. If they announce "cooperation" (their definition is different than yours) price goes to $50 ish handle where shale oil producers will hedge sell an ocean of forward crude oil as fast as their masters tell them to.
Producers should have hedged for more years than they did but some engineers told them oil had to come back to $100/bbl because of their "social programs". Engineers should stick to drilling and let traders run the hedging. Live and learn.
I trade oil (among other futures). Been doing pretty good. I always take days off every Wednesday for inventories and OPEC meetings. Trying to trade them is gambling.
>>978332
I honestly don't know what the fuck to do, coming from an upcoming oil and gas engineer here, I really think I've fucked up. I'm finishing a 2 year extended diploma and trying to get an internship with a degree tied into in, just for the experience. How fucked am I? What should I do instead of oil and gas (there's still time to turn my shit around)
>>978337
Chem engineering. That way you can work even if oil and gas goes down the tubes
>>978332
so shorting $100 or so on some public oil company is a smart investment?
oil $15 a barrel by 2016
Should I get into trading oil? If so, how do I start?
>>978340
My dad is a chemical engineer, although he took off in the educational route after being in industry for a few years (as most do), I might do a ChE degree then specialize if shit starts to pick up in oil and gas.
>>978337
Utility companies need engineers all the time. Also, get an MBA to go with that engineering degree and you'll always have a job if you work for a company that doesn't use 80% of its cash flow to pay debt.
>>978344
What is your VaR on that $100?
>>978352
I see a shimmer of hope, I will look into the MBA thing later, thanks anon
>>978349
That's the beauty of the degree. It's a general enough program that you can do almost anything with it. (Not as general as ME or EE, but you get the picture).
It's all about not pigeonholing yourself into a very specific sector. I'm working in plastics right now. As soon as oil is back up, if it ever comes back, I'm doing my best to jump ship.
