FOREX THREAD
Any traders on here?
Post strategies, questions, or anything related to currency trading etc
1st for anime money
>>967108
what?
I don't know anything about forex, but I heard bad things about FOREX. What and When do you recommend to start investing on FOREX? What skills or abilities might I need?
What are the best pairs (highest volatility) and best market times for scalping?
Afraid you will get no one posting strategies here. Seems that once you create the strat to beat the odds, it's hard to tell the world or even sell it for that matter.
I do know it's possible to develop a fully automated 24/7 trading strat. Friend of my has it and he will never share/sale... sigh
>>967748
>Seems that once you create the strat to beat the odds, it's hard to tell the world or even sell it for that matter
Actually trading is very easy. Any trend following system with a leveraged account will give you big returns every year, if you manage to come up with something that can quantitatively define a trend, a risk management module and a reasonable entry point.
That's what CTAs and the big names in the industry do. The problem is that the average retail is not willing to bust his ass off compiling statistics, and wants to quickly appease his ego by cutting profits and letting losses run. Maybe with some overfit EA piece of shit, shilled for 1000$ a pop by some sketchy indian scammer.
Even if you manage to build a trend following system, there is still the psychological hassle of having to deal with huge swings in the floating PnL, which is what ends up killing the average retail, even the one with a good strategy. And even when the technicals are lined up, you still need a good knowledge of the fundamentals to understand where the trend will stop and why.
And no, no such thing as an automated strategy. You still need to fine tune it every time that market condition changes, and keep your algos on a short leash so they don't rekt your account. Which kinda makes the point of an automated system useless
>>968134
>That's what CTAs and the big names in the industry do.
the thing is the big CTAs trade in something like 60 or so futures and forward contracts simultaneously - the edge is still relatively small and they still have quarters or occasionally years where they make a loss
you can do the same as a retail investor but you need a sufficiently large account to be able to do it properly - unless you're exercising the strategy in multiple markets then your returns are going to be subject to a lot of variance and could potentially blow your account
>>968152
>the thing is the big CTAs trade in something like 60 or so futures and forward contracts simultaneously
Hedging. When you manage big funds you are inevitably forced to hedge your positions and cut down on leverage, since investors prefer low DD and steady but little gains. Add the fact that big positions cannot be placed at market due to slippage and liquidity issues, and the pressure of having to perform above benchmark every year, along with the tendency to "freeze" the funds once a certain profit has been achieved.
Retails do not have the same problems, and honestly even a 40% drawdown on my account is no big deal (tho the odds are known of such an event, and they are extremely small, at least for my ts). And you can scale down your position so much to be able to do literally whatever the fuck you want. There are even micro accounts who offer 1cent/pip per contract. And the variance only regards your floating profits, if your risk management is sound
>>968134
the problem is how/how long does it take to git gud?
>>968739
I think they put the figure at around 5 years of atleast part time trading.
Algos, are so and so. The best ones are already coded and freely available. (Just check out the top myfxbook algos, they are basically the best we've come up with so far).
I don't believe Institutions/banks have secret algos that are any better, as if they did they wouldn't be celebrating over 5-10% returns a year.
The best money is in discretionary trading though. No algos, just pure intuition/wit/market knowledge. That's where the millionaires are made.
>>968977
It's risky as hell, but the payoffs are nuts. Banks hire discretionary traders and limit their risk etc. Just to diversify their strategies.
But you aren't responsible for some clients money, you've just got your own money, and there's no limit to the risk you can take with it.
You want to get $250, go 500:1 leverage (sorry US fags, not for you)... And make $1,000 in 10 minutes this december when the fed increases interest rates? You can do it.
Though you can also blow out your $250 in a split second.
>>968739
One year and half, at least for me. For what i know that's the average. Half of your learning process will revolve around you not being a greedy jew and fucking up your account, the other half around spending long nights in front of a screen compiling statistics or coding. And yes, it will be hard. Have fun
>>968981
>It's risky as hell, but the payoffs are nuts. Banks hire discretionary traders and limit their risk etc. Just to diversify their strategies.
>But you aren't responsible for some clients money, you've just got your own money, and there's no limit to the risk you can take with it.
no they don't - prop desks are no longer allowed
>>968195
yes getting the orders in without moving the market significantly is tricky for large CTAs but the principle is the same - forecasting trends is a bit hit and miss and only has a small edge... you're talking about a 40% drawdown being no big deal... well a 100% one is... you need to be trading a whole bunch of contracts simultaneously else this strategy doesn't work and you'll end up just kidding yourself that any positive returns are alpha when they're not
>>969872
how big of an order would affect the price of the major pairs?
>>969872
>you need to be trading a whole bunch of contracts simultaneously else this strategy doesn't work and you'll end up just kidding yourself that any positive returns are alpha when they're not
Nah, you have no idea what you are talking about, shut the fuck up and try to learn something instead of bullshitting
>>969976
Depends. Liquidity isn't constant all the time, and most of it it's just apparent liquidity, since large orders get routed through multiple ECNs so you get faster fills. This causes slippage and arbitrage opportunities (something that definitely is not something for retail).
I don't know the exact numbers, but we are talking about hundreds of lots, and even if you manage to get filled, you will get a huge slippage and stop hunting (since your counterparties for orders this big are usually market makers who can see where stops are clustered). Which is why as a retail you can easily get big returns (even 15-20% is less uncommon than you think), but eventually you will reach a ceiling above which trading becomes unprofitable, so you are forced to cut down on leverage and/or order size. Generally speaking, the bigger your orders are, the longer you want to keep your positions.
Which is why big firms are usually value investors or position traders.
>>970283
15-20% per month. Yeah you read that right. But it still doesn't mean you will become a trilionaire in a couple of years, for the reasons i've explained.
It's a paradox, but your returns in percentage will vastly outperform those of most CTAs but you won't make a third of the money they make.
One way to get the best of both world would be trading options, but i'm no expert anyway
>>970283
not bullshitting, I work in this filed... you're kidding yourself on the other hand - mistaking beta for alpha like most retail traders
