do you think the turkey coup will have any effects on the stock markets on monday, especially the german one?
What coup?
The short term stuff is just higher volatility in the market. Someone more knowledgeable about the specifics than me could tell you about that.
Long term? Expect capital flight from Turkey after Erdogan has purged the rest of his domestic rivals and begins to throw his weight around heavy handedly.
Watch what happens in Cyprus in particular and take your cues from that.
>>1385701
well actually i was just interested in the short term effects coz i went short on DAX yesterday evening, but i definitely agree with you on the long term effects.
but do you believe we will see something as 5 to 10%-drop of all major stock-indices like two weeks ago when Brexit happened?
>>1385699
read the news mate, the turkish military tried to overthrow it's president yesterday
>>1385718
I think his point was that the "coup" was so pathetic (or even a Erdogan scheme to consolidate power further) that is represented no real threat to Erdogan at any point.
>>1385715
Not that major since the coup seems to have been repelled. But it has major implications for Turkey's domestic politics, the region, oil prices, and thus the markets long term.
The small money is in the short term. The big money is in the long term trends.
Sell the fall
Then buy the dip
>>1385691
When you step on a roach, does the stock market crash?
>>1385691
There is the appearance of calm and order.
HOWEVER
Erdogan played his trump card........
He told the Imams to call the people to JIHAD
Uncontrollable Sunni mobs are being released in the country.
This will get fucking insane. If sunni militias form then they will continually try to one up eachother and eventually try to overthrow Erdogan.
>>1385783
totally agree with you. i bet like in like 6 months to max 2 years there'll be a civil war/ revolution in turkey.
and since turkey is such an important country for the EU and also NATO this will get fucking intense.
>>1385765
You can hope for a gap down at the Monday opening at 8:00. Then sell. At 9:00 Xetra opens and, if the situation stabilizes, the DAX will begin to rise sharply.
>>1385809
yeah already hoping for a nice big gap. but actually i can't really believe the dax will rise further next week, look how much it gained over the last 2 weeks.
>>1385817
It went to ~10350 pre-Brexit so I do believe it can still manage ~10400. What happens afterwards is up to speculation.
>>1385823
I'm saying this because next week there will be German economic surveys and the Producer Price Index which may influence the DAX
Check the dates here:
http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar
>>1385823
well theoretically it could rise to infinity so you're right.. i just mean that the current political and economic situation in europe and the fact that it rose almost over 1000 points during the last two weeks speak against a further rise.
however, i do agree that reaching 10400 points is not impossible in the next week.
>>1385831
yes i know about these dates, but honestly i don't expect them to be good.
>>1385723
>I think his point was that the "coup" was so pathetic (or even a Erdogan scheme to consolidate power further) that is represented no real threat to Erdogan at any point.
Yet Erdogan is still in Istanbul and as it seems Ankara the main city is not under his control as well as other parts of the country.
The military is by constitution the guardian of turkish secularism, they believed that the progressive liberal thinking turks in west turkey will support the progressive values they stand for rather than Erdogans islamistic policy, they were wrong, Turks love their islam.
>>1385845
from where do you know that some parts of the country and ankara are not anymore under Erdogan's control?
>>1385847
I am there, it is extremly tense. nobody knows shit.
>>1385899
ah okay.. well german news say everything's basically back to normal, interesting to know that that's not the case..
but anyway, good luck to u and stay safe!
Turkish Lira will drop further because of the uncertainties going on right now
Dax is at 10100 right now
GG
>>1385691
I don't think it would have effect on any other country (maybe except Jordan, Iraq or some countries that don't matter) than Turkey. But as the stock market goes down it would be best to buy from companies that are openly aligned with current government. Because I hardly think this attempt would have a long term effect. And since Turkish lira will also fall in short time it would be best to invest in Turkey.
