MLB Bets July 9, 2016

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River (ID: !!usv17hLOnCX)
MLB Bets July 9, 2016 2016-07-09 04:53:00 Post No. 1370484
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MLB Bets July 9, 2016 River (ID: !!usv17hLOnCX) 2016-07-09 04:53:00 Post No. 1370484 [Report]

Hey there, /biz/.

Last night, I went ahead and decided to do some calculations. I looked at the odds provided by Sportsbetting on the upcoming MLB games (those played today, the 8th), and then looked at FiveThirtyEight's predictions for those games.

Using those predictions and odds, I calculated the Kelly criterion for all of them and found five games which gave a criterion to bet on the favoured team:
>Blue Jays/Tigers (63% chance of Jays win, 50/81 odds, bet 3.06% of money on Jays)
>Red Sox/Rays (54% chance of Sox win, 25/27 odds, bet 4.32% of money on Sox)
>Indians/Yankees (65% chance of Indians win, 100/177 odds, bet 3.05% of money on Indians)
>Rockies/Phillies (58% chance of Rockies win, 4/5 odds, bet 5.5% of money on Rockies)
>Giants/Diamondbacks (61% chance of Giants win, 25/38 odds, bet 1.72% of money on Giants)

I then started calculating the odds of various outcomes and determined that the probability of a profitable outcome (there were 13 possible outcomes which were profitable, out of 32 total possible outcomes) was 55.1%.

As of writing this (1am EST, July 9), three of the five games turned out as predicted (Jays, Sox, and Indians won), one turned out otherwise (Rockies lost), and the final one is turning out favourably (Giants lead 5-2 at the bottom of the 7th). At this point, it doesn't matter what happens, as the Rockies and Giants losing is one of the possible profitable outcomes, albeit a small profit. (Theoretically using a pool of $100, betting the above percentages would have resulted in $17.65 being bet, and Rockies and Giants losses would result in a 2.15% profit. If the Giants win, however, then the profit is 18.3%.)

As you can see, this kind of mathematical betting turned out to work well. Tonight, I will be doing something similar, for tomorrow's games.

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River (ID: !!usv17hLOnCX) 2016-07-09 04:55:43 Post No.1370489
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River (ID: !!usv17hLOnCX) 2016-07-09 04:55:43 Post No.1370489 [Report]

I'll be waiting until the Giants game is over to finish up calculations, but so far I found 3 games. Even though the Dodgers game is ongoing, for them to meet the Kelly criterion, their chance of winning, as per FiveThirtyEight, would have to be at least 69%, and I don't see that happening.

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River (ID: !!usv17hLOnCX) 2016-07-09 06:27:16 Post No.1370593
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River (ID: !!usv17hLOnCX) 2016-07-09 06:27:16 Post No.1370593 [Report]

>>1370489
With the Giants win, those bets would have made an 18.3% profit.

For tomorrow, the following seem like mathematically good bets:
>1.53% of money on Orioles (57% chance of win, 100/129 odds)
>4.54% of money on Red Sox (63% chance of win, 50/79 odds)
>3.48% of money on Indians (62% chance of win, 50/77 odds)
>3.28% of money on Giants (61% chance of win, 25/37 odds)

Out of 16 possible outcomes, 7 are profitable. They add up to a 61.64% chance of profitability.
(The outcomes which are profitable and are not all teams winning or all teams but one winning are the Red Sox and the Indians winning while the others lose along with the Red Sox and the Giants winning while the others lose.)

The expected outcome is a 2.34% profit. However, understand that this is merely an average of all of the statistical outcomes based on their probabilities, assuming FiveThirtyEight's probabilities are accurate.

The two most probable outcomes are all teams winning (13.58% chance, 66.4% profit) and all teams but the Orioles winning (10.25% chance, 45.4% profit).

Bet responsibly and with your own discretion, /biz/.

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Anonymous 2016-07-09 06:39:04 Post No.1370616
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Anonymous 2016-07-09 06:39:04 Post No.1370616 [Report]

538's ranking system is not accurate enough to beat vegas, nor is it intended to be. The results you got were just random chance, you don't actually have any edge betting this way.