How does the Black Swan theory explain top investors like Soros and Dalio?
How does one average 20% returns by chance?
>>1220233
a black swan, in finance, is simply an extreme unpredictable event
'black swan theory' is mostly Taleb explaining why they're more common than expected and how some assumptions of financial modelling/statistics applied to finance are dubious
in any case it has nothing to do with explaining the existence of top investors
>>1220233
>how does one average 20% returns on average
Soros got his start as an investor because he's a Jew and the director of the bank that hired him was a Jew.
>>1220250
The implication is that it's not possible to predict markets and other low validity environments, because of such rare events and their effects.
For example one could not have predicted WW2 because if Hitler hadn't been born it wouldn't have happened.
Therefore investors can not possibly make money year to year even with all the knowledge in the world.
I understand the theory, the conclusion is that top investors are either 1) extremely lucky or 2) cheating. Soros is a progressive liberal so either of those two might be true.
>>1220253
About 90% of the richest investors are also Jews. Not NEWS.
>>1220258
>Therefore investors can not possibly make money year to year even with all the knowledge in the world.
You can if you're the one making the black swan events.
>>1220258
Dude got caught insider trading already. Imagine how much he's gotten away with.
>>1220262
Just pointing out that the answer to OP's question is essentially 'be Jewish'.
>>1220250
Kurtosis bro!
>>1220233
Insider trading, basically.
Easy to make, and control markets when you have so many connections.
>>1221460
Even more than that. Soros, Rothchild et al. are Khazar Illuminati, the ultimate Juden.
>>1220233
You realise there's no actual evidence that people like Soros/Dalio/Icahn/Cohen etc. made these astonishing returns.
Just because you read a hedge fund made huge returns doesn't make it actually true. You should take things with a pinch of salt.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-10-07/how-investors-lose-89-percent-of-gains-from-futures-funds
>>1220233
Have you read the book? These people are rich precisely because they are black swans.
>>1220233
There's a confluence of networking/connections, some small amount of luck, a large amount of insider information, and after one or two breaks go in their favor, they become famous, begin to collect lots of OPM, and through that, they become "market makers" whose moves in & of themselves drive markets. If you're sweeping up 4% of a market with a buy, and announcing a sale dumps a stock 3-5% immediately (like Icahn's announcement about aapl yesterday), you have to be a moron to not make money.
>>1220258
>WW2 was dependent on Hitler existing
Anyone else think hitler gets a lot more credit than he deserves?
>>1220233
IMO, the truly impressive guy is pic related.
71.8% returns for 20 years.
>>1221789
Yeah, Hitler was far from unique among German politician in wanting to violently retake lost territory.
