Not invited: Keynesian economists
I'll start the thread off. Place your bets folks, when will the federal reserve collapse under its own weight?
within 2 years
>>1213870
You should take econ past 102 before speaking about macro economics as if you understand it wholly.
>>1213879
>needing to take a jewish propaganda class to understand that the federal reserve is a violent monopoly on the money supply and works to the detriment of the average citizen
>>1213899
Oh boy that's some spicy shitposting.
Alright, I'll bite. What's going to cause this unprecedented and monumental collapse of the world's most liquid and most traded currency?
>>1213870
Hayek guy here. To answer your question, never.
I love the Austrian school, classical liberalism, etc. but it ain't going to happen m8.
>>1213875
You can still buy it before it's 7 figures a coin.
>>1213918
Some say Treasuries, others say hyperinflation.
I think it will happen once the major banks start rolling out the MASSIVE reserves they amassed since QE started.
>>1213870
When will Germany and its faggot Hayek buttlicking faggots collapse under its own surplus?
>in 2 years
>>1213972
>hyperinflation
Get a load of this guy here. You still think QE will result in 6000000% inflation? Like Japan, EU, US hasn't been a lesson for you yet?
>hurrr hyperinflation guys
>calling it now
>any day now
>0.6% deflation
>>1214007
Explain this.
>>1214014
That's a chart of the federal reserves excess reserves. It doesn't explain inflation. You might try looking at a price index.
>>1214014
Fine, US it is. What are you trying to prove? It's sitting idle in banks because they're not lending to households and firms which is the main factor in generating inflation. And there is no motive for them to lend in the foreseeable future. Why? Because for banks to lend, firms need to have profitable investments, otherwise they stockpile on their shit loans. And investments aren't profitable when the aggregate demand is in shit and no one can afford your products.
What I'm trying to say is that currently monetary policy can't have any significant effect on inflation or output. Only fiscal stimulation can do that now - but that's from EU standpoint though.
>>1214014
"Another way the central bank can eliminate the tension between
its conflicting policy objectives
is to pay interest on reserves.
When banks earn interest on t
heir reserves, they have no incentive
to lend at interest rates lower than the rate paid by the central bank. The central bank can,
therefore, adjust the interest rate it pays on reserves to steer the market interest rate toward its
target level.
The Fed
eral Reserve began paying interest on reserves, for the first time in its
history, in October 2008. This
action
was taken to “
give the Federal Reserve greater scope to
use its lending programs to address conditions in credit markets while also maintaining
the
federal funds rate close to the target established by the Federal
Open Market Committee
”
(Federal Reserve Board, 2008)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr380.pdf
>>1214014
>>1214029
In short, the Fed is a better lendee/interest bearer for most banks than equivalent private loans in the current economy. This is largely because there are only so many sources of lending in any economy, and since the Fed is paying interest on cash reserves, banks would rather take that safe money than take the comparatively risky money they could get by issuing loans to private borrowers (companies, individuals, etc.).
>>1214024
Motherfucking faggot with his "price level hurrr duurrr". I hate you fuckers so much.
>>1214041
But why though?
>>1214041
>austrian loving moron in action
gets me every time
>>1214053
>inevitably
here's your problem, they won't.
>>1214062
Unload is a retarded term to use as well. It took them 6 or 7 years to aquire that many assets. A third of it being MBSs that have a scheduled buy back. The very act of the Fed selling reserves decreases money supply, so I don't know how he is getting an inflation increase.
>>1214071
If you want to understand the US banking system and it's macroeconomic effects I have a pdf of one of Mankiws banking books. The man is a god teir when it comes to macro econ.
>>1214071
Once you understand basic macro theory, get down to reading papers, analyses of the theory and where it fucks up in practice.
>>1213870
after europe
>>1214046
Because the defintions have been set to help the keynesian aka government and fed narrative.
Prices of homes used by people to live in themselves are defined as investments, which is ridicilious. Stock indicies rising by over a 100% in a couple years are absolutely NOT due to an inflated money supply.
And the absolutely "scientific" way to "measure" price levels by comparing good baskets does not factor in productivity rises, which lower prices.
Inflation is expansion in money supply and nothing else. This "price levels" are smoke bombs for idiots, so they can be robbed and believe, that the robber is rescueing them from certain death.
>>1214090
Where can I do this? Where do you find these papers and analyses?
>>1214133
National Bureau of Economic Research for starters
nber.org/papers
still have my excel file from macro though, here are some papers if you're interested. Don't take anything out of the papers as sure and certain. When you read a paper, look for critics etc. on it and see where some of them have fucked up.
>>1214077
I hate reading off of pdf's. Are Mankiw's books rare to find or something?
I'll try looking for him next time I'm in the bookstore.
>>1214158
No they arent hard to find. PDFs are free :)
>>1214148
Thanks a lot!
>>1214148
Am I missing something? It seems from here you have to buy these papers, I'm not studying at an American university either.
>>1214117
>Inflation is expansion in money supply and nothing else
Fucking lmao. Have you heard of something called money velocity?
Mises cucks need to fuck off back to /pol/.
>>1214165
>>1215666
You don't have to pay at all m8. Just insert the full title of a paper into Full Text Search window and search from there, and once you got the right one just click on adobe icon. If that doesn't work for you, just paste the title into google and click the first link with nber.org as a website
>>1213870
>Not invited: Keynesian economists.
Got to love a school of thought that won't even allow dissenting opinions at the table.
>>1213870
Monetarist school master race. Checking in.
>>1215711
Obviously debt expansion will also create price inflation in the short-run, but it should (if allowed to be discharged) contract again.
In that sense the only long-run form of inflation is currency debasement, either via the printing press or via debasing of coinage with increasingly lower cost alloys.
>>1213899
Actually my basic macroeconomics class covered Friedman
Before 2022
>>1215817
Considering M1 increased by over 100% and CPI only increased by 13% since the 2008 recession/crash.. there's no strong relationship between monetary expansion and inflation
When lots of countries start trading oil in something other than dollars, or when US gov debt is seen as too much to pay back.
>>1215853
>m1
>what is velocity of money
i never doubted that asutrians never get past 1st page of economic article. What do you expect the Fed to do? do monetary expansion as normal and go 50% or more into deflation? that would just be lovely wouldnt it?
>>1216314
>mfw i read that in his voice
>>1215711
>money velocity
in reserve banking system velocity of money directly creates expansion in money supply
>>1216588
*in fractional reserve banking system
Bought 200 grams of gold in January. Looks more and more like the value of dollars, euro, yen and yuan are going down and hard. Thinking of getting even more gold.
