- Anyone here have a successful and durable experience in forex trading ?
- What's techniques did you use ?
- With how much money did you begin ?
- Gives me advice for a beginner like me, please.
I am really sad when i read specialized forums in forex, why?
Because all the trading journal I read ends the same way :
They end up losing all their gains and have their account to 0 dollars, after 6 months or 1 year.
I need testimonials from people who really live forex successfully since several years.
http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/70214-truth-about-forex-you-cant-become-rich.html
I think this method is the best to learn forex or index cfd:
Depositing tiny amount less than € 200 and try to make it grow until 1000, once in 1000 reached 900 withdraw.
With the remaining € 100, try to grow them again to € 1,000, remove 900 ... etc.
Do it 10 times successfully
Instead of dropping € 50,000, losing after six months, redeposit € 20,000 and lose again after one week.
Warning : this thread is only for winner in forex market.
This method will work in forex:
Find some super simple and narrow strategy, stick to it with 0 human error and good money management. Never get cocky and stick to your rules at all times.
>Depositing tiny amount less than € 200 and try to make it grow until 1000, once in 1000 reached 900 withdraw.
Any proper forex strategy will never allow you to grow 200 to 1k in the short term because it involves so much risk that it's for sure not profitable in the long run. The cockyness needed to aim for even a doubling of your bankroll in the timespan of a year probably makes you unfit to trade the forex based on your personality.
Unless you're the best forex trader in the world avoid high variance at all costs. You're gonna have months where everything goes your way and you feel like the best forex trader in the world(while sticking to a narrow system), this is where people destroy their bottom line by getting cocky and deviating from their system. Don't be one of those guys. You can make good money knowing nothing outside of your own little narrow trading world in the forex, but it's down to your own discipline.
You could teach someone to be profitable trading forex in a day. See x - observe for y to happen - use z to put on limits. If you're in doubt avoid the trade. You're obviously not gonna get rich quickly doing this, but any get rich schemes on the forex is pure gambling super high variance >-1% roi strategies.
>>1208565
Institutional trader/dealer here, spot fx and derivatives.
You really have no idea what you are talking about.
I have been following these threads with morbid interests for a while, this shit is absurd. Between clinically braindead OP making these threads everyday instead of finding a job and the alaska guy trying to steal money from dumb neets giving him free stuff...well, what can i say.
You guys have no education whatsoever, never saw a single one of you compiling a shred of statistics, and yet here you are giving advices like you are hot stuff. If it's not you, it's going to be some other 12 yo kid claiming he is some high frequency trader guru using big words taken from investopedia, lmao.
Social darwinism at its finest. Your money is really better off in someone else's hands. Strategies like OP requested (that is, stable and robust strats) are usually worth millions. Really. I have seen people with proprietary strategies getting paid 6 zeroes sums just to manage money (big money) with their strats.
And yet, OP here requests them for free. Top kek
>as per me, turned a meager 750£ in well over 200k between 2011 and 2013, switched to lower risk and sent my track record to a bank. Strategy was easy and robust, i could write the rules on the back of a napkin. Still use it on a private account with a minor risk per trade, still works like a charm. Got hired on the spot
>>1208654
>750
>over 10,000% growth p.a.
cool story bro
>>1208654
trading fx being hard is pretty much a meme perpetuated by retards who lose all their money. There are very easy profitable systems for trading forex and so many people are trading profitable systems but losing money because they lack the discipline to follow it.
If you have experience from online poker or similar and you know that results oriented thinking is the devil and emotional control is key then trading forex is easy. I love people who say trading demo is so much different from trading real money. If that's the case for you then forex isn't for you. If you're used to 20 hour poker sessions with 15+k intraday swings in plo and still staying on top of your game the entire timeperiod then forex is for you.
Certain types of people are instant winners on forex if someone shows them the correct way because they understand the mindset needed. And you do not need to be intelligent in the slightest to understand the right way. The less you know about the market as a whole, more likely are you to stick religiously to the system that you know and understand fully why works. I could train a monkey to earn money trading while the market is in trend if he had no free will and stuck to the strategy.
Nice of you to write down your dreams for us at the end of the post btw
>>1208685
>ITS MUH PSYCHOLOGY
>ITS MUH MINDSET
Hey, that's exactly what people with a gambling addiction keep telling themselves, gj
>>1208696
first you say
>Strategy was easy and robust, i could write the rules on the back of a napkin
yet you have no understanding of my position saying there's so many profitable trading strategies and for the most part the reason people who put in the work are losing money is purely because of discipline issues.
Finding a profitable strategy is easy. I feel like you agree with that from the above quote, but then you downplay the importance of psychology/mindset.
You're grasping at straws dude, you're just trying to argue for the sake of it because you're a nobody /biz/ troll who just want his opinion heard by someone.
What I can tell you though is that no gambling addict has ever talked about psychology or mindset ever, what the fuck are you talking about? Absolutely no correlation between those two things. Gambling addicts are either delusional and think they have the winning strategy(be it poker or markets) or they know they're losing but are addicted to the feeling they get. I've played poker for years and gambling addicts are not new to me, they seem to be for you though.
PSYCHOLOGY, PATIENCE & MINDSET
FIBONACCI & ELLIOT WAVE
>>1208685
>There are very easy profitable systems for trading forex and so many people are trading profitable systems but losing money because they lack the discipline to follow it.
jesus christ
>>1208711
>Finding a profitable strategy is easy
The strategy is simple, not easy. Doesn't mean it didn't take me one year and half to develop it.
And yes, you are talking like a degenerate gambler. Your "psychology" works against you because you don't have an edge. Your subconscious mind is smarter than you, and her warnings are ruled under "muh psychology and muh greed" by course sellers.
>>1208716
You forgot lunar cycles. Not kidding, there are people actually doing this
>>1208716
>>1208717
this guy is the person perpetuating the meme that forex trading is hard/impossible.
>muh market makers
>muh hft and algo traders are the only people making money
>no way to compete
I know multiple people trading simple strategies for a profit 3 years in a row now. Low variance strategies that are 99.999...% certain to be profitable at this point considering the sample size. Strategies that complete numbskulls could easily learn and execute in a short amount of time. Have lived with one of these traders and tried it out for a couple of months for fun, it was easy. I quit because I made more money elsewhere and it wasn't my passion though.
>>1208721
I have a proven edge and the entire point i'm trying to get across is how fucking easy it is to have an edge. Are you seriously sitting here assuming i'm trying to tell you that you don't need an edge to trade forex? like how stupid are you? fucking christ you're a moron.
>>1208724
>and the entire point i'm trying to get across is how fucking easy it is to have an edge
Lmao, 95% of traders fail in the spot fx, 2% stay afloat on breakeven, the other 3% make money more or less consistently. Building a strat is insanely hard, extracting an edge out of it has been the most difficult thing i've ever have to do in my life. Just because it can be summed in a few lines of code, it doesn't mean it's "easy".
And i still use it as a tool along with fundamental analysis and order flow reading. On its own, every single strategy is worth jackshit
>I quit because I made more money elsewhere and it wasn't my passion though.
Sure you did sweetcheeks. Gotta love how you don't even know what variance is
>let's pretend we make money trading and argue about things we don't know anything about
get a job you slobs. especially you, OP.
>>1208737
I have close friends trading practically the same system to this day and they've been trading forex for a living for 3+ years :)
Way less than 2% are winning poker players, doesn't mean poker isn't easy. (obviously way harder than forex though). Less than 0.0001% of poker players are winning at midstakes+.
Poker is incomparable to forex though as in poker you cannot have a system that ignores the complexity of the game when you start playing midstakes. Learning the complexities of the game takes a lot of time and effort, but it's not hard. In forex you can literally learn strategies that ignores 99% of the complexities of the market and you can make money knowing nothing but your own little bubble world.
Just because only 1% succeeds doesn't make something hard, surely you must understand that.
>>1208724
bwhahaha =D
>>1208556
The problem with you retard is that you daytrade forex and get anally devestated by algorithms.
Your positions should typically be between 1-3 months if you want to have any lasting success, which by the way is not in your best interest if you're a poorfag retail trader.
how many times are you going to autisticly make this fucking thread you fucking autist
>>1208685
nah it is all about having an edge and exploiting an edge generally isn't 'easy' - edges are eroded when they're traded and as a result finding and exploiting them (whether by speed, better analysis) is inherently competitive
people who don't grasp this like to put forth the notion that it is all very simple, people could stick to some very simple rules and it is muh psychology, muh risk management that screws it up for them - those can be factors but the main issue is lack of an edge... if it were simple to find and exploit one any idiot could just automate said strategy and leave it to it - in the real world that doesn't happen - unless they're using a speed advantage automated strategies need constant refinement and generally aren't simple
>>1208711
>for the most part the reason people who put in the work are losing money is purely because of discipline issues.
this is nonsense, mostly people are losing money because they have no edge
forex is dangerous.
>>1209598
I remember that it was a fuck off a decade
>>1209598
not if you hedge correctly
which is the entire point of the forex
to hedge
and what is it that's being hedged against?
currency fluctuations
mostly for big corporations who have to do large currency exchanges to continue doing business in the way they are accustomed to
and the key is
FUTURES
instead of currency pairs
>>1208556
Can you stop making these threads you autistic brown fuck
>>1209627
you have lost a lot of money ?
>>1209650
no in the context of these threads the posters are generally speculators, the aim for them isn't to hedge exposure to currencies but take on exposure to currencies in order to (speculatively) make a profit
multinational corporations use FX for hedging purposes (mostly to reduce the variance in future cashflows overseas when repatriating to their base currency)
if you're claiming retail trader's 'hedge' then what exactly are they hedging against?
unless you're one of these muppets who things two simultaneous opposing trades is somehow different to simply closing a position
>>1209855
I have lost money at forex - more of an overall leverage-issue. Never traded that pair. Man I feel bad for those how did
>>1208654
Any tips you can give someone trying to learn? Books or anything of that sort to get into?
>>1210509
>i have no idea how to use google
The core concept is to 1)Identify a big trend on the high TF 2)Understand the macro reasons behind it 3)Switch to a lower tf, to make sure the trend on this tf is aligned with the bigger tf 4)Switch to a lower tf and fade the rallies/rips in the direction of the main trend 5)Enjoy the ride, learn where to place protective stops
Part 4 will require a strategy with rigid rules to entry and place stops. Make sure you backtest a large enough sample to define some valid entry rules.Part 5 will require lots of experience, hundreds of hours glued in front of a computer screen, and a decent understanding of the fundamentals in play.
Your win rate should be pretty low (mine is less than 24%) but you will be left with a lot of small losses and monster like wins.
You will see very few people using such a strategy, because the average retail is adamant in his convinction that high win rate=success. It's the main reason why ALGOMASTAPROINDIANSUPER 3.0 and similars get flushed out quickly after making a killing. Long tail distribution,you see. And psychologically speaking, it can be demanding soaking a lot of losses, holding your positions for weeks, losing months, and handling huge price swings in your PnL.
As per the rules, figure them out yourself. Intelligent people reading this simple post will understand and find a way.Shouldn't take longer than a few months if you do your homework. The others will keep begging for rules, falling for memes such as technical analysis,elliott waves and psychology.
Or making the same thread for months.
>>1210551
Thanks for the info. I'm well aware of Google but I like to ask what people personally recommend instead of me flailing about aimlessly without any real direction. I can extract a lot from this. Thanks.
>>1210564
Anything from Nassim Taleb
Anything from Stanley Kroll
Anything from Jack Schwager
Mind over Markets
Inside the house of money
More money than god
But only because you asked nicely
>>1210426
>buy eur/usd
>sell eur/usd
Can't do this in America.
>>1210572
>Anything from Nassim Taleb
This.
>>1210705
ah so it is the very confused retail FX 'trader' version of 'hedging' you're talking about
what exactly do you expect to achieve from being able to open two opposing positions simultaneously - aside from having to cross the spread more often (i.e. give away money) it is the same as being completely flat
>>1210771
You can't do a proper hedge with currency pairs. I never said you could. I said in America, you can't open a long and a short on the same pair. If you try to hedge pairs, you're fucking retarded.
How is everyone fucking stupid today?
>>1210806
I don't know, why are you so fucking stupid today?
Why would you even want to do that? What the fuck are you even talking about in the first place re: hedging?
>>1210722
this might be more practical
>>1210818
Foreign exchange is dominated by big players doing actual hedging. Foreign exchange doesn't make money. (unless you can push things around)
You can realize appreciation, but you're forgoing risk management doing so. You never want to expose capital in the forex for the purpose of appreciation.
>>1210828
no it is dominated by big banks who act as market makers
some of their customers use them to hedge - mostly the treasury departments of large companies
other customers use them to speculate
trading in foreign exchange can make money, plenty of large CTAs make rather a lot of money from it... and they're following rather than pushing around
another poster pointed out, quite correctly, that trading forex is risky... you then posted a slightly incoherent post where you made a very vague claim about 'hedging' which you're seemingly unable to explain
forex can be your worst nightmare.
>>1210837
Without the need to hedge, there would be no forex.
>CTA's make a lot of money
>they're following, not pushing
Can you cite this claim?
The point is that the forex is a risk reducing tool. You don't get income from currencies. Betting on currency appreciation is throwing risk management out the window.
Risk management is the first thing you want to have for your capital. Then, after that, you go for income. You wouldn't be focusing on betting for currency appreciation if you were getting income from your exposed capital.
The people who make any sort of consistent money in the forex get fucked hard when they take losses. You can listen in on this when you listen in on conference calls of your bucket shop if they happen to be public.
>>1210849
>Without the need to hedge, there would be no forex.
you can say that about most futures and options exchanges too... actual hedgers/end users make up a small amount of volume
it is still completely as the thread is about trading FX not using it to hedge - I doubt the posters in here have a variety of foreign currency cashflows they need to hedge their exposure to. So in the context of the other poster who pointed out quite rightly that trading FX is risky you're still making no sense at all
>Can you cite this claim?
perhaps you haven't heard about trend followers - they're quite passive and aim to minimize market impact - see Aspect, Winton, AHL, Systematica etc..
>You don't get income from currencies
Yes you do - it is called interest and has been around since biblical times
>>1210862
>
The point I'm making is that people have entirely no clue what they are doing. You have a better shot in the equities market.
>can you cite this claim
>"you haven't heard of x?"
Nice citations.
>he buys a currency pair for the interest
The thing is, is that it's not the currency that's producing interest.
>>1210872
>The point I'm making is that people have entirely no clue what they are doing. You have a better shot in the equities market.
well I wouldn't dispute that, however that is the first time you've made that statement
>The thing is, is that it's not the currency that's producing interest
yes it is - at a basic level an FX trade is the combination of a loan and a deposit
>Nice citations.
they're reasonable enough examples of big trend followers, they are proven track records making money trading futures and FX forwards, their returns are correlated enough that their strategies are fairly similar (in fact some of them share common founders- the founder of winton and two founders of aspect originally founded AHL) They're all essentially following the same passive trend following model (albeit with slight tweaks to it) and they've consistently made money with it, managing billions in capital, for years...
and no they don't get 'fucked hard' when they take losses, they're not very leveraged at all, if anything they're oversubscribed and have too much capital
>>1210887
>the point of forex is to hedge
Currencies don't produce income. If I held your currency, you wouldn't magically get interest in your account. I'd have to personally pay it. At which rate, I'd choose.
>proven track records
>doesn't provide a source for it
I stopped reading at proven track record. Either provide some links or kill yourself.
>>1210887
okay so i read the last sentence
the reason why retail forex traders who make a lot of small wins get fucked hard when they make a loss is because of expected value. If you have a 90% win rate, the 10% you lose will eat your 90% win rate. This is because of your "risk reward" stop loss. The math is right there.
>>1210896
>Currencies don't produce income. If I held your currency, you wouldn't magically get interest in your account. I'd have to personally pay it. At which rate, I'd choose.
no, you don't get to chose the market collectively does... if you don't want to trade then don't
>I stopped reading at proven track record. Either provide some links or kill yourself.
like I said you're seemingly unaware of their existence
here is one of the firms mentioned above:
http://ctaperformance.com/wntn
you've still not explained your hedging nonsense that started this exchange...
>>1210904
wow your link literally proved me right
it's about the futures
not about currency pairs
read your own fucking link dude
>>1210899
>the reason why retail forex traders who make a lot of small wins get fucked hard when they make a loss is because of expected value. If you have a 90% win rate, the 10% you lose will eat your 90% win rate. This is because of your "risk reward" stop loss. The math is right there.
citation needed re: the distribution of returns for retail traders - I doubt very many of them are 90% wins 10% losses... most will be all over the place
the main reasons you'll get fucked hard on a single trade are too much leverage or a big big move (such as the CHF one) whether your overall strategy is +ev or -ev is beside the point
>>1210908
>confused by title of the fund
they're one of the world's biggest CTAs - they trade futures and FX forwards systematically as I've already pointed out... you're absolutely clueless
>>1210913
It's literally the risk reward that quantifies your expected value, which always ends up the same.
You can't actually quantify your chances of making 25 pips from price x on date y.
>>1210914
Dude, it's not currency pairs they are trading. They aren't fucking around with lots of eur/usd. they are playing with FUTURES
>>1210915
I'll use your own quote here
>Either provide some links or kill yourself.
re: your claimed distribution of returns for retail traders
I'm not disputing that they mostly lose I'm disputing the 90% wins 10% losses... being typical of them
>>1210918
you'd never even heard of them until I posted... and no they trade both futures and FX forwards - they've done this for years...
>>1210915
>It's literally the risk reward that quantifies your expected value
no, that can affect your EV but your actual edge is the important bit
2015 at 13 may I stared with 100pln, two months after I had over 17k pln. Traded on xm.com with 888:1 laverage. Lost all money just befor wedding day.. To much on head tried to tarade adhoc... Now I know that its all possible. I used fibs and price action. Prof on myfxbook.com
>>1210921
currency forwards are still future contracts they aren't currency pairs
>>1210920
the math is literally
literally
the risk reward
like
if you ahve a stop loss of 10 pips to win and 100 to lose, you'll always break even in the long run, minus the fees.
>>1210923
quantify your edge in the forex. go ahead. i want to see it.
>>1210929
so you've got nothing to back up your claim for retail traders making 90% wins and 10% losses... good going
>currency forwards are still future contracts they aren't currency pairs
no, they're not - they're traded OTC just like spot albeit settling at 3 months, 6 months etc.. rather than 2 days
>quantify your edge in the forex. go ahead. i want to see it.
I develop futures trading strategies actually but supposing I did work on FX why would I post any models here?
>>1210938
The math is literally within the risk reward. 90 + 10 = 100
no edge
>still can't quantify an edge using currency pairs
>this means that advisors using futures contracts is the same thing
>>1210952
so you're not able to provide a citation for your claim... I'm not disputing that someone could trade with a target of 10 and a stop of 100 pips... that is totally irrelevant, but since you're being deliberately obtuse there is little point in carrying on this conversation
though just FYI you seem to be misunderstanding the concept of an edge, the way you structure your trades mostly affects the variance of your returns rather than the edge - for example there is no edge on a roulette table regardless of how you structure your bets... you might change the nature of the payoffs/the variance of your returns by doubling up with some martingale system for example but each bet still has the same -EV regardless
there is no reason in theory why you couldn't have a system with a target of 10 pips and a stop at 100 pips if you did have an edge, sufficient to beat costs (clearing fees + spread) then. Sure if you entered trades at random then such a system might well end up with the payoff you describe for retail traders (actually thanks to the spread there would be far fewer than 90% wins) but that is assuming no edge in the first place and therefore no business trading. Whether you appreciate that or not who knows but the claims you've currently made re: ev are rather misguided.
>>1210974
It's literally math. If you're ten pips away from your limit loss, you're 90% more likely to hit the limit loss than a stop loss that's 90 pips away. You'll only have a 10% chance to hit the stop loss.
For every nine times you win, you win 90 pip, but for the tenth time you roll the dice, you lose 90.
This is how you literally have to treat the forex for face value. If you have no other means to quantify, then you simply don't have means to quantify. You don't have the money for the research and the connections to get the information to perform analysis on. If you did, you wouldn't be sitting here on a fucking Indian Designated Shitting Board.
>>1211121
you don't seem to understand the concept of an edge
yes what you say would hold true if we assume random entries and exits, zero costs and zero spread...
it is totally irrelevant to the discussion, you're being completely obtuse again - you made a claim about how retail traders trade and you're unable to provide evidence for it... obviously we know most of them lose money but you've provided nothing to support that they mostly make lots of small winning trades and a few big losing trades other than simply stating that they do and that 'it's math'
>>1211166
quantify your edge with currency pairs
go ahead
do it
>>1211257
I've not claimed I personally have an edge trading FX, you seem to suffer from short term memory loss
>>1210938
>I develop futures trading strategies actually but supposing I did work on FX why would I post any models here?
any evidence for your claim that retail traders typically make 90% winning trades yet? Why not 80% or 70%? you've dodged the question a few times
>>1211287
exactly
you can't quantify your edge
get outta here kid
nothing personel
>>1211287
> typically make 90% winning trades yet? Why not 80% or 70%? you've dodged the question a few times
I've never said anything about this. How are people so bad at reading comprehension.
>>1211292
it was your explanation for retail traders getting fucked...
in reality it is use of leverage and/or extreme moves that fucks them... and that CHF move was extreme enough that stops are irrelevant and would be slipped massively at most bucketshops
as for reading comprehension:
>>1211289
>you can't quantify your edge
no... I've stated I don't trade FX not that I can't quantify my edge which can be estimated empirically
you seem to think an edge is simply some function of where you chose to exit trades, if that were the case you could simply enter trades at random
>>1210572
Can't believe you left out the millionaire maker, Mark Fisher's books.
Don't forget pic related. Key to day trading is on page 31.
>>1211314
good book but getting a bit old
Euan Sinclair's books are well worth a read
>>1211304
>I can't quantify my edge
Edge is easy to calculate: Winning trades divided by all trades. You can do it on your phone.
Odds are probability of success. Use your own definition of success.
It's the Kelly Criterion.
Edge X Odds tells you how much to risk on the trade. You can add additional inputs for additional safety.
I'm not so worried about how much my traders make. I'm more worried how much they will lose within approved loss limits.
>>1211317
>good book but getting a bit old
Which one is getting old? If Fisher's he's had some additions to the original.
>>1208556
@trader1sz made a million in 2 years trading. He started with 2K. Fucking kills it. Loads of us do and we all use The Inner Circle Traders free course of his website. All free, so just watch them all over and over while taking notes and practise.
>>1208654
How come you never went prop with such a good strategy?
>>1211335
>The Inner Circle Trader
>>1211121
>>1211166
It's incredible. You two have been literally arguing for a whole day about pure nothing. You two cocks know nothing about statistics, you just make shit up on the go. Lmaoed at Kelly Criterion and the cuck who tried to calculate odds.
For the record, edge=expectancy per trade, and cannot be calculated without knowing the risk reward ratio.
And if you are actually making money, and not just making shit up you shouldn't be able to give an exact estimate of it, just one empirically based on your previous trades (good trading systems usually leave room for the right side of the tail aka unlimited profits made by catching the whole trend).
For everyone else out there wondering why 95% of traders lose money and/or go bankrupt, there you go.
>>1208654
>You guys have no education whatsoever, never saw a single one of you compiling a shred of statistics
ironic comma splice
Lol that's what OP gets for posting this thread for the millionth time; two retarded idiots arguing for an entire day.
Ok so I told you guys is update my experience with forex broker inc. I deposited 400$ and quickly traded it up to 2300 dollars just placed a withdrawl it should be here by weds I'll keep you guys posted also just opened an account with Sandton direct they offer 1000:1 leverage I'm going to deposits 600$ and try them out next wish me luck
>>1212083
hi can i give you money so i can become forex milionarrie in a few time :) u look very good with forex trading god bless
>>1212020
>know nothing of statistics
>am a professional poker player
>>1210841
You guys keep posting my bedroom your a bunch of goofs XD
>>1212086
Sure I'm the [email protected] guy in this chart it was an easy win I would have been dumb not to buy. It was an obviOus head and shoulders market reversal in play
>>1212096
>obvious head and shoulders market reversal
>>1212101
But it was.... And I made over 409% in less than a day from one trade. Granted it was 500:1 leverage but I'm still a good forex trader it's all I do and play Dota.
>>1212101
See the chart see that I was right remember a month ago I posted in one of these threads telling you guys I know how to do this. Idk how but I always win I just know what to do I see it all visually and I know where it's going to go it's just instinct for me. You could say I have IT whatever IT is but I'll enjoy the new Cessna 185 I'm bout to buy. Still don't have a nice car but in Alaska airplanes are king!
>>1212106
>he doesn't talk to someone directly when negotiating a price
>CALLS HIMSELF A FUCKING TRADER
>>1210952
>The math is literally within the risk reward. 90 + 10 = 100
>no edge
>IMA PROFESSIONAL POKER PLAYER
Playing for a few pennies with your autistic cousin on sunday afternoon doesn't exactly qualifies as PROFESSIUNAL POKER PLAYA XD but eh
In case you want to ever get serious and stop memeing
>Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) – (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)
Which tells you how much money you can make ON AVERAGE and ON A LARGE ENOUGH SAMPLE from a single trade.
This formula will be not 100% reliable if you are doing things right. Why? Because you can have from time to time a few outliers yielding outsized profits.
Now stop making shit up before people actually take you seriously and put money on the line
>>1211325
Kelly Criterion is unreliable in trading because unlike fixed odds betting, prices do not exhibit a normal distribution (aka predictable in terms of standard deviation from the mean).
But you had to pull something out of your ass to sound important on 4chinz, so hey
>>1212112
>i just know where price is headed
>idk how but im the best trader around bruuuuu
>>1212112
ah yes thank you for the email, i will now send you all of my rupees so i can become forex millionaire like you allah bless :)))))))
>>1212113
Why would I talk to someone directly? And negotiate a price? It's much faster to just close a position when I'm in profit it can be done quicker than any conversation + I'm in Alaska . Who would I talk to?
>>1212120
Maybe idk I can't trade for to many people
>>1212127
nono how much can i send u then if it is too few i can send you 10k dolla to become rich thanks yo you :)))))
>>1212115
>a few pennies
If that's what you call a few hundreds, sure.
As a poker player, I'm able to actually quantify the probability of winning with cards. In the markets? I don't have the data nor the ability to analyze such data. That's why I just build a risk neutral dividend portfolio.
>normal distribution meme
Fat tails are accounted for in many models. Even then, it's not something that people like you and I would put in our risk models. The chances are just too low and we don't hold enough money.
The current quote is the last trade to go through. The next quote is the next trade that goes through, regardless of the current quote.
>>1212121
You do know how the forex was played for the majority of it's lifetime? Through people calling each other working at the banks.
Like, if you don't know this, you NEED to literally study the market history in the 80s and 90s. Go watch some fucking tudor videos or the nick leeson movie.
It's like flipping a house: the money isn't made in the sell, but the buy. When you can negotiate a price under current market value, you can easily sell for market value!
Too bad you can't negotiate with a fucking computer screen.
>>1212130
I wouldn't recommend 10k
I'd recommend 10% if you really wanna make $ why don't you just buy Trumpcoin ??? ;)
>>1212131
You are amusingly oblivious to how autistic you sound.
You need to cover your ignorance of basic concepts with verbose posts.
Shoo shoo retard, be gone and take your stupidity with you while the grown ups talk
>>1212135
>wahh i don't know what im talking about
>so im just gonna call some anon an autist and complain that he's shitposting
>The Post
>>1212132
Is that legal? Also I was still like 2 years old in the 90 s but I can't play video games while talking to people. I can't alt tab to a chart if I'm busy talking to some guy trying to negotiate a price that seams kinda a waste because the markets so volatile. It's easier and takes less time to just move 100,000 in a trade play a couple games of Dota then exit the trade with 140,000 no human contact... Just the way I like it in my lil autistic NEET life paradise
>>1212137
>LOOK MOM I POSTED MEME ARROWS NOW I AM FOREX MASTA TRADER PRO XD
>>1212137
You guys the autism jokes arnt funny. I really am autistic because my grandpa was poisoned from agent orange and it affected my mom and gave me autism. But I'm still better at forex tradeing than most.... Idk how tho I just keep making money
>>1212138
nigga they didn't have charts back in the day
>>1212139
>MOMMY SOMEONES OUTSHITPOSTING ME
>I WAS LIKE "NOW THIS IS SHITPOSTING"
>AND THEN I REALIZED I WASN'T ACTUALLY A SITH LORD
>>1212143
I don't care about back in the day then my whole thing is visual. I'm very sensitive to geometry. I can play any instrument to without even practicing just by triangles I see visually. It's the same when I trade forex I just see the triangles and I complete it and it makes me lots of money. I'm really antisocial and have horrible people skills I don't think I could negotiate a price with a real human.
>>1212143
Aren't you supposed to be playing professional poker now kid?
>>1212142
>I really am autistic because my grandpa was poisoned from agent orange and it affected my mom and gave me autism
Why am i laughing so hard
>>1212147
NICK
LEESON
YOU'LL BECOME A PRO
LOL
>>1212149
It's Sunday...
>>1212152
Idk who that is I started playing the game second life and was selling avatars for second life lindens then I traded those for like 1200 Bitcoin then I started tradeing bitcoin on btc-e and then someone there on the trollbox told me about forex so it's easier to give my mom grandpa family some money through forex. I'm not emotionally attached to money I don't really need it in my life. I have masterd any control it might have had over me. At this point it comes to me in waves. In and out in a rythmic pattern until I have a sea of overwhelming wealth that means nothing to me
>>1212176
Where is your track record?
>>1212180
My forex track record? Like my history statements all my brokers email me that I print out at the end of every month and then give to my mom to do my taxes?
>>1212186
no, he means how many times were you such a good boy that you racked up enough Good Boy Points that you were able to buy Tendies
>>1212221
I have a lifetime supply of good boy points since I paid off my moms house so I get as many Chikun tendies as I want! I also spend some of my weekends inside making the Chikuns arise.
>>1212233
It's like some russian scammer gave himself a quick rundown of 2012 memes to blend in so he could better rip off people on 4chinz with a such a cheap scam
Well done mister, their money is better off in your hands
>>1212176
you said your grandpa was rich why the hell does he need your neetbux
>>1212271
I'm not a scammer. Please don't send me money that's not how it works you have to list me as a trader on your account I'm not legally allowed to take money from anyone
>>1212273
He just asked me for like 100$ here and there.
>>1212274
you're not legally allowed to make investments for anyone either
you think if you lose someone's money you can just say "oops, sorry" and that's it? sure it's their fault as well for trusting some random guy on the internet but still.
>>1212186
you pay how many tax on your forex benefice ?
>>1212280
But he cannot lose, he is hedged on a demo account.
In case he gets busted, he can always show his profitable trades here claiming he is good.
Notice the absence of a track record, risk management or a fixed methodology. He just says he makes money thanks to his autismo lmao
>>1212286
Not true I have many real accounts with lots of real $$ in them I trade demo accounts for people interested in letting me trade real accounts that's all. I'm not here now letting you know I traded w forexbrokerinc and I'm placing a withdrawl I'll let you know if they are legit and if I got my money
Real account
Real account on this one to
Account for btc and nmc
A demo account for a guy
Bitcoin forex account also real and I have many many more real accounts o just don't want to share the numbers or the balances I feel like it would be unwise
>>1212280
Yes I can you can list me as a proffesional trader with gain capital group on forex.com I only trade for U.S. residents and 50:1 leverage I will not trade for other people with some of the other brokers I use because if I trade for other people I have to use US regulated broker
>>1208654
>>1208716
>>1208717
>>1208743
>>1212020
>>1212101
>>1212113
>>1212150
>>1212271
>>1212280
>>1212286
I'm Just so fucking glad 4chinz still has some senses in them, I had been lurking his thread for quite some time especially the alaskan fag posted Star Trek's Quark with quotes of "a little bit of greed is gud" Seriously fuck off mate! OP could be also the alaskan fag with his DOTA shit.
>>1212352
I'm not op and someone else took my bedroom and did the greed is good shit not me. Also the rules of acquisition are key to being a good forex trader. You need to swim in the great river of commerce
>>1212367
See that shit!!!! I didn't do that that's my bedroom but I didn't edit that shit
Forex opens in 4 hours and I'll be playin Dota 2 and winning trades till Friday I can't wait :)
>>1212282
I don't pay much tax I take almost all my profits and put it into Bitcoin and just leave it there :/
>>1212367
>check IDs
>OP actually edited the bedroom with that autistic shit
The absolute madman
>>1212425
Bitcoiner cope.
>>1212441
I had Bitcoin before it was even a dollar so I'm not worried I'm sure it will be fine.
If not I always have forex I can buy a house or build one I'm not worried I'm not emotionally attached to money and I live in Alaska so I don't need money to live here.
>>1212427
Omg your right it is OP!!!! OP your a nut!
>>1210841
He's posting pictures of my room telling me forex will be my worst nightmare lmao. So far it's been a good excuse not to get a real job so :)
>>1212020
>It's incredible. You two have been literally arguing for a whole day about pure nothing.
looks like, since this post, you've done the same ting and just started arguing with the guy yourself now...
>And if you are actually making money, and not just making shit up you shouldn't be able to give an exact estimate of it, just one empirically based on your previous trades
yes, I know, see below - it is the other muppet who seems to misunderstand this
>>1211304
>no... I've stated I don't trade FX not that I can't quantify my edge which can be estimated empirically
>>1212480
tell me more
>>1212096
It was an obviOus head and shoulders market reversal in play
>>1212995
Build a house for under 1% oF my net worth out of bags of dirt
SELL SELL SELL AUD/CHF
>>1212277
is this the same grandpa who taught you forex and is now so broke he's begging for spare change like some kind of fucking hobo?
does he also live in a house made out of dirt?
do you invite him to your vip homosexual foam parties in your yurt?
why did i make so much money selling eur/usd last week?
answer now please
thank you
>>1213395
No grandpa ever taught me about forex I have 2 grandpas in Alaska. 1 was the ceo chairman of doyon cooperation he teaches me about good money management and investing he is very well off financially.The grandpa I live with is horrible with money but still semi well off from running a fly in fishing biz in Alaska. (He's the one who asks me for grocery money) no they do not come to the dj girl parties the girls dj it's easy and I'm sure some gay guys are there there are straight guys to and lots of college and teenage bikini girls but the Djs are always girls no guys ever. You probably made money tradeing eur/usd because you were disciplined and focused and was up to date with what was happening with that pair. I was focusing on Bitcoin and usd/jpy and I also made a lot of money as Bitcoin whent to 450+ and usd/jpy fucking mooooooooooooned after that head and shoulders pattern. But I think it will continue on a bearish trend either late this week or next week. Idk I'll just play Dota 2 watch Star Trek and keep an eye on it.
>>1213395
Earth bag homes ( houses made of dirtbags) are fairly modern and lots of people around the world who want to be financially free from debt and mortgage are building them in rural places where there are no building codes. Alaska is great for this. And they look really nice when done. I don't think my grandpas would want to build one or have one it's kind of a newer concept and better for a young person. They are old and already own a house ( that took them half there life's to pay off.) where I can build a earthbag home for 1/50th of the price not owe money to a bank and have lots of cash left over to play with. Earthbag homes are earthquake proof fire resistant and flood resistant they are great economical homes to build for someone who is young and wants a nice permanent home for dirt cheap (literally)
>>1213395
>make so much money
how many pips ?
what's your capital ?
>>1213676
>how many pips ?
170
>what's your capital ?
enough
>Odds of beating the stock market are against you
>People still think the can statistically be profitable in the long-term in a market as volatile as forex
the truth about forex and profitable trader.
>>1213713
>170
with scalping method ?
i read "CFD are forbidden for US resident" ? this is true ?
>>1213743
>with scalping method ?
depends on what the market is doing
>>1213740
good post
the other interesting question is how long the unprofitable accounts have been open for... if they're anything like the UK spread betting firms (basically the same thing - bucket shops but with equities and commodities thrown in too) then at least half of those accounts 'in profit' will simply be relatively new accounts experiencing some luck over a short time frame... actual consistently profitable accounts over a few years are much rarer - there are a small percentage that are marked to be always hedged in the underlying futures market - they're consistently making money and trading in a size equivalent to or greater than one lot in the underlying.
>>1212115
hey can i pretty plz have your napkin of success plz and thank you x
>>1213750
sort of, trading FX with a bucket shop isn't forbidden in the US but more tightly regulated than the rest of the world, trading equities or commodities with a bucket shop is illegal and has been for around a hundred years or so
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucket_shop_(stock_market)
"[a]n establishment, nominally for the transaction of a stock exchange business, or business of similar character, but really for the registration of bets, or wagers, usually for small amounts, on the rise or fall of the prices of stocks, grain, oil, etc., there being no transfer or delivery of the stock or commodities nominally dealt in."
>>1212142
holy fucking /thread
>>1213869
I should add that it shouldn't really matter for US citizens, you've got plenty of low cost FCMs available for trading indices and commodities and you've got no stamp duty to pay on stock transactions plus plenty of brokers offering margin trading, direct market access, access to stock borrowing for shorting etc..
it actually protects US consumers in some ways as leverage trading via some bucket shop comes with the same added costs and conflicts of interest as trading FX with one - much better to have some transparency on a public exchange
in the UK there aren't many good solitions for non professionals to actively trade equities - one of the few is interactive brokers CFD solution that allows for direct market access rather than being quote driven by them acting as a market maker.
