Anyone in economics or statistics?
Does this graph infer that we are in for an economic crash in late 2016/early 2017?
Interesting chart. Might be an indication of markets overheating. Thanks dude.
2017
October
Calling it now
What's the best way to prepare for a crash?
>>1163598
We are already in a bear market
>>1163661
Have as much of your assets in cash, or readily usable collateral. You then just buy everything and wait for it to double in a couple years.
>>1163598
no you are falling into correlation/casuation trap economics as science has got out of 50 years ago.You cant infer anything from a fucking graph because it only tells you 1 thing about the economy. People like shiff, robunini and that fat marxist proffesor i had all tried to pred dict "the bigest crash ever" since fucking 2010
>>1163661
u buy tvix and you hold on to it until October
This is a graph of unemployment. Even though we can't really make any assumptions about the economy from this graph, The graph is trending down meaning we have less unemployment. Full unemployment is generally a good thing and usually not indicative of a crash.
>>1163677
Doesn't inflation usually occur in a recession as to where holding assets in cash would be a bad idea? Not doubting you, I just have no clue and would like to learn how best to optimize myself in the event of a crash/boom - Thanks boys
didnt estimates from like 1-1.5 years ago suggest we'd start seeing a major decline around the end of the year? basically a smaller housing bubble, but it will still destroy confidence?
>>1164147
Source that the next bubble to burst is a housing one? I've heard the next one coming up is the student loan one that will make the economy kill.
>>1163685
>y-you can't time the market g-guys
>p-pay no attention to t-the regular sawtooth pattern
>>1164155
no source right now, i think the reasoning was that boomers are trying to sell of houses and no one can/will buy them. all it takes is a few scared boomers to sell at a minor loss to turn it into a run on the bank. home prices still dont reflect intrinsic value
>>1164171
Interesting thought, I'm weighing buying versus renting right now, mainly why I'm interested, no point of buying tomorrow and ending up underwater.
On an extremely micro level (my neighborhood with expensive home prices) I've been noticing more and more people trying to sell their homes because they couldn't do it a few years ago. They're bulldozing my local golf course for a McMansion farm of about 70 units. So I do see the possibility of a couple boomers just cashing out below their home value because they're just trying to retire.
>>1164182
my personal thought: ill be buying a home within 2 years, could right now but ill be waiting until the end of the year to make a decision whether ill do it in summer 2017 or later.
the end of the year will be very volatile, and like you said, buying now has a huge risk of being underwater immediately. its even hard for boomers to "buy down", like selling an expensive large house theyve had for a while and buying a cheaper house for retirement. we'll see this year if boomers can sell their houses and if millenials will buy anything.
its just a matter of how bad it will be, most likely not as bad as 2008.
>>1164186
Fair enough, I'm starting to lean 2017 at the earliest as well. I work for the government under the executive branch, so the presidential election is essentially voting for who's going to be my new boss, so I'm gonna wait on how stable my job will be.
I just hope my friend who is itching to move out of his parents house ASAP who believes the whole "renting is burning your money, owning is the only way to get equity" meme doesn't get burned too badly if there is a collapse.
>>1164192
its swings and roundabouts depending on how long you plan on owning for.
e.g. if you buy a home you plan to live in for an extended period of time and are able to make repayments - its not a bad idea even if a collapse takes place - because you're still in the green.
what's bad is buying something you have no need for and cannot afford repayments on.
that being said - buying a house and losing your job bites massive cock - so thats something to consider in the event you cannot rent it out and get something more viable for yourself.
>>1165130
i should clarify - im pretty keen on buying my own place reasonably soon; but i'm REALLY hoping theres a collapse in my country and I can buy a place at an offensively low cost. My job is pretty secure but my main concern is going into debt which even for a long term asset with good chance of appreciation - is still gay to think about risk wise.
>>1163748
It does but the rate of inflation is nowhere near the drop in value in asset classes such as stocks, so a given amount of wealth would devaluate less as cash than it would in stocks.
The best hedge against inflation would probably be in commodities (assuming you know where you're stepping), but the idea is not so much to avoid inflation (which remains moderate in first world economies.)
The point is to put yourself in a position to take advantage of the recovery following the crash. You need your assets to be as liquid as can be (hence, cash) so you can move fast when stocks/real estate/whatever are up for grabs.
A crash is double digit loss of value across the board, but double digit inflation isn't a risk outside of Zimbabwe-tier economies.
>>1164155
Depends on what country you live in, Australia and Canada have a lot of evidence of housing bubbles especially in there major cities. They are heavily dependent on emerging markets (China/India) and their foreign investments are starting to slow down. Lots of sources on that stuff but its all speculations of course. Pic related is what $1 Million gets you in Vancouver, Canada. http://www.vancouversun.com/Photos+Vancouver+million+dollar+homes/10897082/story.html?__lsa=086d-be5b
>>1165230
Vancouver is about to get hit really hard when the foreign roller-coaster money stops. China is starting to crack down internally on suit-case cash-outs. Without their Chinese owners no one is going to buy in that city and property values are going to collapse overnight. The Canadians can't even raise interest rates for a fear a complete housing collapse. It's fucking hilarious how 'by-the-balls' the housing market has their fed.
>>1165230
see also for comparison to other cities
>http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/01/house-1-million-vancouver-vs-25-cities/
>>1165240
Don't kid yourself Vancouver is ridiculously expensive compared to ANY city in the western Hemisphere. Certainly Oslo, Zurich, Tokyo or Monaco have it beat; but none in North America.
>Does this graph infer that we are in for an economic crash in late 2016/early 2017?
no
t. economics graduate
>>1163598
Your graph looks a little different then this
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
>>1163598
Since unemployment is what happens right AFTER market crash, then this chart is worthless.
Also nowadays figures on US unemployment rate are distorted and artificially adjusted.
>>1165249
>but none in North America.
Five words: New York
>>1164160
Sure, go into tradestation and learn how to backtest. See how well pattern matching does for future results.
Protip: It doesn't work
