My classmate took issue with my theory that Facebook will fall as quickly as it rose. He says
>"with Facebook advertising and with social media only growing higher and higher, I believe Facebook will be one of the largest and most profitable company by 2040. Facebook is always creating new ideas and is now focusing more on creating solutions and apps for businesses. "
I think he's a fucking moron, but what does /biz/ think? Are online businesses, especially those based on social media, as volatile as I think? I believe easy profits are also easily lost.
I don't think it will fail. It's like the new tv. Even if edgy people like us don't watch it, it's still going ot be around for ages.
Facebook as in the website will experience a significant downfall in popularity imo; the company however will remain prominent for a while due to investments outside its core business
He's wrong about Facebook being one of the largest and most profitable companies by 2040, but at the same time Facebook isn't Myspace.
It is widely used by most all age groups that the site allows, unlike Myspace which relied a bit too heavily on teenagers.
It's a heavily established brand at this point, and it has enough smart people in its upper ranks (helps that Zuckerberg isn't a retard, either) that they won't fuck it up on a stupid risk. It's the Google of social media at this point, it isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
About the only thing that could kill Facebook is if the US passes a law (and only the US; EU or the rest of the world couldn't do shit to hurt Facebook) establishing such extensive consumer privacy rights that online advertisers no longer have any data to work with and won't pay for ads. Of course, if that were to happen that would also kill Google and literally every other website that relies on advertising.
tl;dr you're both wrong on opposite ends of the spectrum
>>1094460
>my theory that Facebook will fall as quickly as it rose
Explain your theory. Why will it fall?
>"online businesses are volatile" isn't an acceptable answer btw.
As much as I dislike Facebook, the website, Facebook, the company is really, really solid.
Discounting the main property (I.e. let's say fb proper tanks as in your hypothesis) we have a technology business that is sitting on a treasure trove of user data, world class infrastructure, basically owns mobile ads, has tons of cash and knows how to acquire and make companies thrive.
Unless you get Steve Ballmer out of retirement and put him in charge, I think fb is safe for the foreseeable future.
Even if facebook the website dies, facebook has a lot of money diversified. They also own instagram, whatsapp and oculus if VR goes big. It's safe to say facebook isn't going anywhere
>>1094711
Can we at least hope Zuckerburg gets herpes?
>>1094460
facebook makes most it's money from it's mobile app now
facebook messenger
they transitioned to mobile excellently and they're raking it in people just love to talk to each other on facebook, it's a messenger app and like a homebase for you to access and collate all your other social apps like instagram
facebook is going to keep going up due properly leveraging their size and responsively adjusting to the demands of their users
>>1094460
The only reason most people use facebook is to look at pictures of their friends and read "news". The worst part about facebook is how creepy their sponsored content is and how obtrusive and unavoidable it is. The thing that keeps everyone from leaving is that all of their friends are on facebook (no one uses Google+, Myspace, etc.) and even if everyone were to switch to G+ it would be a pain in the ass to transfer all of your photographs (+tag information, likes, comments, etc.)
Here's your Facebook killer. All you have to do is rip them off and steal their ad money.
Simple promise:
News, Friends, Shopping. No tracking. No evil.
Simple website design. 3 tabs. Top and bottom banner ads.
>Friends
>News
>Shopping
"Link" to facebook
>rips all your photos including tag information
>rips every comment from your wall including likes on comments, etc.
Otherwise functions exactly like facebook but with less kikery. Somebody will do this at some point. It's completely possible to steal their ad money this way.
facebook is already unpopular, young people use snapchat, tumblr,instagram.
But even though its unpopular people will still use it, i give it a good 15 or 20 years.
Facebook use to be the cool hip place for kids to hang out but then the olds started using facebook and you cant be your cool le meme self when your grandma is lurking in the corner
>>1095072
>People using Instagram
>Facebook is hurting because of it.
top fucking kek
>The apocalypse is coming brother, facebook is unsustainable garbage, all of it's consumers will dissapear!
>Facebook is a VALUE driven company that's constantly improving to meet new markets!
both of these are meme perspectives and both of you are fucking morons.
>>1095053
That's what we all hoped google plus would be.
>>1094460
As other anons have stated, they don't rely entirely on the website (still heavily) so if that dies, which I'm sure most agree it will at some point, they have a ton of stuff to fall back on. Right now their worth is wonky af because they've been investing so much so in a few years we'll see for sure if they can survive.
>>1095072
Betting on tech used by children is extremely volatile especially when youre out of touch senpai
The longer Facebook is around, the more of a zombie it will be. Lots of people outright hate their cable company. But not even DirecTV, Dish, Netflix, etc together have killed Comcast yet. If Facebook ever goes down, it's going to be sudden.
>>1094727
>implying he didn't get it already from his nasty chink wife
m8...
>>1094460
2040 is a long time from now so a lot could happen .
Facebook right now has a lot of cash and has done a good job at buying up potential competitors (except Snapchat and Twitter, the latter is shrinking and is mostly redundant to what Facebook can offer now). They even bought the most advanced VR so they could be the first to cash in on that new ad space, despite the technology being years away from being commercially viable. The next phase of social media is messaging and Facebook has their messenger and recently bought WhatsApp so they have their cut of that technology.
Facebook is a dominant force in technology and they've made a lot of smart moves. This has translated to strong current growth despite a growing downturn in the tech industry. Facebook isn't going to collapse any time soon.
>>1095053
arent there already many of what you just described?
the only way i see to "make it" would be if a competitor had buko bucks
>>1094460
hes just regurgitating what the tv says, Ive been on fb more and more lately and only a see posts from a couple people on my friends list, i see more "anon liked this post from 1 year ago" than actual posting, fb is dead which is why zukerjew got the fuck out because im sure he knows its reached or is reaching its peek, and besides how many of those new users from 3rd world country's? I Just feel bad for the old folks who got suckerd in by this whole social media bullshit marketing
>>1094460
The only thing that could kill Facebook is a change in mentality coming from the the userbase. This is not something that can be predicted and nothing that needs to be indicated in quarterly reports.
Money will keep coming their way, they will keep investing, they will survive one way or another.
About 95% of Latin America internet users had an orkut account and were active there. Then, before 3 months, they migrated to Facebook.
That is how quickly a social network can fall, and you have to be pretty foolish to think that this can't happen again.
If any of you guys have invested into Facebook, get the fuck out right now.
It is only declining at this point.
Instagram, Snapchat, etc are what's "in."
>>1095966
Facebook owns Instagram. They have also made offers to Snapchat but have been rejected.
What's 'in' is messaging and they already bought WhatsApp and have their own messaging platform. I think the stock is overvalued but the company isn't going anywhere, even if people stop using the core service.
>>1094472
All of this x1000
>>1095371
>That's what we all hoped google plus would be.
>less kikery
>not tracking
>no evil
Yeah nah buddy.
Hip person here, deleted my facebook last week.
>>1094499
>and only the US; EU or the rest of the world couldn't do shit to hurt Facebook
I can't wait to hear your reasoning behind this.
>>1094460
Facebook isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Just like YouTube.
>>1094460
I agree.. Facebook is meme tier.
It's likely buoyed based on cashflows from information sharing. Ad. Revenue. Consumer info. Info to .gov.
When the consumers fully tap out and .gov goes apeshit (next year) Facebook will be hurting.
Definitely meme-tier.
Facebook is the Microsoft of the future
>>1094472
It won't be fucking Google though - their hierarchy is so shit.
>>1094460
They are less volatile now than say MySpace was. Corporations have gotten in and VC has bolstered a lot of companies that used to rely on shakier footing.
That said, yes it is still incredibly volatile. By nature, services are and especially services with practically no assets or means of generating ongoing revenue. Facebook relies on your friends keeping you interested. Read that again. So what happens if they jump ship?
Plus the sheer amount of VC money ramming these market caps up into space is worrying. At some point investors are going to want to know how the stock does without their cash propping it up. VC has genuinely helped manufacturers but service industries don't make a product. Not a tangible one anyway.
Don't misread that, I think service is the future. But I don't think the future is a bunch of services that either struggle to monetize or rely completely on advertising.
Im 23, I dont use it because my parents and family use it now and I dont want them seeing what I get upto.
Most people I know don't use it anymore.
Most people my age are dropping it anyway. Everyones on instagram though.
I met someone that was high up with Billabong the clothing company (cant remember their name). What they said is that kids dont like billabong anymore (when I was 14-16 it was a massive brand. Everyone wore it in Australia) because it's what their dads wear and it's not cool. So billabong has been spending fucking millions on buying out smaller trendier surf brands.
Same will happen with facebook take instagram as the prime example.
Only a matter of time when the facebook social media bubble pops, unless they pivot their role. I think they should pivot to online identification/geneaology. Think about it. 100 years from now, historians wont be trowling books or dig sites, they'll be reading wall posts, tweets and navigating through bilions of nude snapchat photos haha
everybody goes on facebook/instagram.
nobody in younger demographic really "uses" it. engaging in statuses ETC.
just a time sink- just like this stupid site.
>>1096373
fb is a us-based company
eu doesn't have jurisdiction over us based companies, nor does it have jurisdiction over the internet
all eu can realistically do is make fb jump through a few hoops, that's it. unless they plan on building something like chinas firewall that gives them direct control over their citicens internet access, they can't really mess with facebook.
>>1094460
>Facebook is always creating new ideas and is now focusing more on creating solutions and apps for businesses.
such as?
anyone can extrapolate, but the trend is your friend til the bend at the end
>>1094711
I forget they own Instagram.
I was looking at some shorts on Facebook the other day and I was like "how the fuck does Instagram know I like this brand"
I'm even more of an idiot because I have a paper due on network effects in the morning. Smh
>>1097712
I seriously cannot believe people post on this board with no clue what they're talking about. Do you even read the news ever? Do you know what the US is doing to Takata, a Japanese firm?
In case you feel like supplementing your high school degree with some googling, look up the long arm clause
>>1097727
Someone literally already posted about VR, if you can't see how drastically VR will change our world then you are a dense motherfucker
It's all about demographics and diversification. Facebook has a stranglehold over most of its users, but it's haemorrhaging teen users to instagram (which it owns) and snapchat (which it doesn't).
What >>1094472 said is largely correct, but facebook might be able to correct some of its management problems with a reshuffle, and strategic acquisitions have been working out well for it.
>>1094460
Actually doing a research project on Facebook right now...
The company goes much more in depth then social media. They keep coming out with all kinds of new and innovative products....
They're gonna keep going strong.
>>1094460
>>1094472
A lot of old companies turned into dinosaurs from not innovating or looking to always move forward. For example, IBM had both desktop computing and relation database before anyone else but decided to bin them. The new tech companies seemed to have learned from these mistakes and actively search for the next breakthroughs in their respective fields. Facebook's acquisition of Instagram has been absolutely fantastic for them and is a great example of this.
So, to answer your question, Facebook will probably remain a large company and the other tech giants will maintain their respective holds (Google and Amazon). I don't understand the appeal of Netflix because its range is limited and you can stream anything online for free. Apple's brand has always been about status and individuality but now everyone has one its difficult to see if they can maintain it.
>>1095006
how does it make money off messenger? blackmail?
>>1094460
>My classmate took issue with my theory that Facebook will fall as quickly as it rose.
Your classmate also still has an active MySpace account.
