How are Consensus EPS estimates made?
They are often very accurate and if they aren't the stock goes crazy.
>>1091490
So there is this thing called I/B/E/S (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institutional_Brokers'_Estimate_System) where analysts submit their analysis for different forecast periods and then monthly they publish the average and deviation of various measures like EPS.
So the mean EPS from IBES is the typical consensus estimate that is probably being talked about.
The numbers have been widely studied in academia. Both the mean and the standard deviation, as well as, changes and misses. Pretty much everything.
>>1091640
Thanks, this helps and let me google more in depth.
So for like a restaurant they would take the monthly same store sales estimates, plug them in a model and out comes the analyst eps.
Now the I/B/E/S puts that number into another model weighted with other analysts (on the basis of success and newness of knowledge), then out pops the final estimated eps.
Complex, but neat!
