> INB4
I'm Muslim
But I want a goat
The other door has a goats ass

Also OP is correct.
Switching wins 2/3.

If you disagree, you are wrong

>>693626198
This.
/thread

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>>693625820

h-how?

>>693626339
R - Reality
If you didn't pretend to stutter I'd bother explaining it

>>693626339
Why are you a f - f - faggot?
Stop being a m -m - moron and posting like an a - a - autist

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>>693626451

If i choose door 1 and the car is behind door 1, it will still be behind door 1 even after the host open door 3. Are you crazy?

>>693626716
> if
What if the car isnt behind door 1?

>>693626716
But if you chose door 2 or 3 and the car is on door 1 you win the car if you switch.

>>693626885


you're just trolling me 'cause i'm italian

>>693626716
> If i choose door 1 and the car is behind door 1
Then you win 100% by staying
> If i choose door 1 and the car isnt behind door 1
You win 100% by switching.

What were the odds of you choosing the correct door?

>>693626964
Nobody trolls Italians.
All your body hair fucks up our trolling machines.

>>693626964
> Italian
Don't you have an opposite direction to run?

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This is the famous Monte Hall problem

Here is where the numbers work:
the host had to choose a goat-door.
working out all the possible outcomes you get better odds by switching your choice because chances are the host left the car behind the door he did not choose


Deadpool approves

>>693625820
Endless ways to explain this.

You have a 1/3 chance of a correct guess, therefore there's a 2/3 chance of it being behind the other doors. They don't move about. You knowing where the car is doesn't change the odds (maybe somebody did this 5 minutes ago, does them having looked change your odds? No).

Out of the two remaining doors there will *always* be a goat, therefore it doesn't matter that he shows you a goat, he can *always* show you one. That's the trick. You think you're being given special information, but you are not. Being shown a goat behind one of the other doors changes absolutely nothing, because one is always going to be there.

Could go on, give examples with more doors, etc.

It's pretty reasonable to find this hard to grasp but it's still reality, so don't give up on getting your head around it, if you're new to it.

>>693627522
For somebody who got the answer right, you're pretty fucking dumb.
> chances are the host left the car behind the door he did not choose
There's no chances, the host can't open the car door, so the chances of the "host left the car behind the door he did not choose" is 100%

>>693627612
This anon gets it.

You COULD give examples with more doors, but we both know that would just confuse them even more.

>>693625820
It's 50/50 you dum dum
2 doors left, 50%

>>693627612
And out of 2 choices it will ALWAYS be 50/50.
Endlessly explain that

>>693629001
>>693628546
Bait

>look at me, I'm OP, I watched the movie "21" and I bet no one else has seen it!

The goats arse is behind door 2 so there's a goat behind door 2 and 3 so I'll stay with the door 1

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>>693627908
By choosing door X I have 1/3 chance to receive a car, leaving 2/3 chance that the car is behind either door Y or Z.

After the host reveals the got behind say door Z, the probability concentrates to 2/3s that the car is behind door Y.

example 2. If we were given 100 doors and could only pick door number 1 the the odds for are 1/100 and odds against are 99/100.

lets say the host eliminates 98 of those doors, leaving door 52 still closed. at this point the probability of a win concentrates to 99/100 that the prize is behind door 52.

>>693629001
>>693628546
If you pick a door and keep it, you have 1/3 chance to get the car.

If you pick a door and then switch you have 2/3 chance to get the car.

Always switch - double your chances.

>>693629115
You're the one b8ing saying it's b8.
It's 2 choices, so.its.50/50.

You're b8ing alright...
Master b8ing

>>693629492
This is all assuming that the host always opens a goat-door. I feel this was not overly stressed in OP's pic.

>>693629001
If I roll a 6 sided die with 5 ones on it and 1 two then I can either roll a one or a two, so its 50/50.

That's what you sound like.

>>693629409
Blatantly wrong
>host opens a door that you DID NOT pick, revealing a goat
this means that 1 of the doors is eliminated
the door you picked could be right, or the other door could be the winning one. There is no "concentrating your chances" bullshit

If you pick a door and keep it, the chance is 1/3 that you got a car, that's intuitive and simple right?

These are the three possible outcomes if you switch, each have a 1/3 chance of occurring:
1. You pick the car, and switch away from it, losing a car.
2. You pick a goat door, the host eliminates the other goat door, and you switch to the car. WIN!
3. You pick the other goat door, the host eliminates the goat door you didn't pick, and you switch to the car. WIN!

You win 2/3 times when you switch.

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>>693629971

your diagnosis is: blatant pedantic nonsense for purposes of bait. If this were periscope I would say you had a case of blockoma.

I'm also waiting for you to address example 2

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>>693629675
> I feel this was not overly stressed in OP's pic.

Did you look at the OP image?
Because here it is with a big yellow circle to focus your attention, and some blue underlining showing why you're retarded.

>>693629697
Nuh uh faggot.
Only if you roll the die, then remove 4 of it faces.
That's why you is dum and I r smrt

>>693630485
you pick door 1, host eliminates other 98 as wrong, says "the win could be behind door 1 or 52"
if its behind 1 and you switch, LOSE
if its behind 1 and you stay, WIN
if its behind 52 and you switch, WIN
if its behind 52 and you stay, LOSE
that makes 2 win and 2 lose, hence 50/50

>>693629971
And there's a 2/3 that the prize is behind one of the 2 doors you didn't pick.
> one is revealed as a goat.
Still a 2/3 chance the prize is not the door you.picked, but now there's only one door you didn't pick.

2/3

>>693630509
I'm just saying it can be read as "In this particular example, the door that the host opened happened to contain a goat" which might make people think that if you did this 100 times, the host would not always open a goat-door.

>>693630485
Periscope. Is for attention whores.
So you meant blackoma right?

>>693630951
when one door is proven wrong, the probability changes. You realize that's allowed to happen, right?

>>693631076
No it can't.
It's stated right there in the image..
Read all the text, it's not open to interpretation.

It makes more sense if you think about many more doors than 3. Consider 100 doors. You pick one door, then are shown one of the ones you don't pick and then are offered a chance to keep your door, or switch to ALL of the other 98 doors. Obviously you want to pick the 98 doors instead of the one you picked. The fact that you were shown an empty one doesn't even matter. Same if you had started with 99 doors, same with 50 doors, and the result is still the same if you had started with only 3 doors just like the OP problem. The host is basically asking, "Do you want your one door or both these doors? Oh and by the way one is empty (You already knew that. This information is useless) and it is this one."

>>693630856
address probability concentration


also state your age. I'll put 5:2 odds on your're not done with high school yet

>>693631097
Probability doesn't change.
There's a 1/3 the door you chose has the prize, theres a 2/3 you didn't.
That means there's a 2/3 chance you DIDN'T choose the prize, so the prize has a chance of 2/3 to be any other door.

Once there's only one door left you didn't choose, theres still only a 1/3 chance.you.chose the prize since you chose that ONE door out if THREE.
1/3 chosen door
2/3 all doors not chosen

You run to your door before the host gets a chance to open his, that way if both of the doors show goats, you're guaranteed a switch to look behind curtain 3.

>>693625820
Why am i on a game show?

Why do I want this car?

Do I have to pay the registration fees on this car?

Can I just leave and not do anything?

Honestly I'd just stay because I don't care. I don't lose anything by getting the question wrong. The way I see it, I'm in a clean slate position where I would neither win nor lose anything if the car were not behind the door I chose, so I don't care.

>>693631092

blockoma is when i block you for disrespect

Or you could just baaah like a goat and see which one talks back.

>>693631362
You fucked that up.
> pick one door out of 100
> host opens 98 doors leaving one
> keep.your door or switch?

>>693626198
But they know that so would they then put the prize in the other door?

>>693631513
And you'd lose your money, just like you are wrong here. college graduate. sounds like you need to go take a statistics class. There is no probability concentration. Asking my age doesn't prove me wrong. Address what I said

>>693625820
You have a 1/3 chance of being correct with your first choice. The host always opens an incorrect door. Therefore, your original choice has a 1/3 chance of winning, and the swap has a 2/3 chance of winning.

>>693630856
> 98?
There's inky 3 door anon.
You need to lay off the drugs and stop having arguments in your head that you finalize online

your choice: 1 or 2 or 3
hidden door: 1 or 2 or 3
if you opt with the no switch strategy, you will win when your choice lines up with the hidden door value, which will happen at random 1/3 of the time.

for example,
your choice: 1
hidden door: 1
is a win but,

your choice: 1
hidden door: 2
and
your choice: 1
hidden door: 3

are both losses

if you opt with always switching, you will win whenever your guess was wrong, or different from the hidden value

your choice: 1
hidden door: 1

is a loss

but

your choice: 1
hidden door: 2
and
your choice: 1
hidden door: 3

are both wins.

now u understand

>>693631097
No.
Probability cannot change, that's what probability means.

>>693631586
lmao you are so wrong. It DOES change. When you initially pick, you are correct in that you have a 1/3 chance of being correct. However, when you are shown that a door is wrong, that removes that option from the equation. Your door is now 1 out of 2 options. 50/50

>>693627612
This is technically right, but still is stupid.

>>693631748
I explained it differently than usual, but him giving you 98 doors vs. opening 98 doors does not make a difference because opening doors does not change the chances of it being behind one of the doors you didn't pick.

>>693631843
>But they know that so would they then put the prize in the other door?
How would they know which doorwould be picked before hand? And if you were to rig something like this, wouldn't you just move things around before the reveal?

>>693625820
>probability concentration
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-3-door-monty-hall-problem/

IT'S TIME TO STOP

>>693631736
i just.....
i can't.
the fucking racism here.
you people are ill
literally shaking right now.....
wow.....just. just wow. literally unbelievable.
ill never understand this......place.
it feels like
after the past 2 weeks i have been here it just seems to get worst and worst.....
blatant racism
child porn spam
animal abuse
anti semitism
holocaust denial
woman hating
homophobia
fat shaming
off topic adult cartoons
the list goes on and on.......
the n word literally hurled around like it was a casual insult......
are there even moderators to control this insane place??!!!
disgusting.....are you even "humans"? or just jaded pieces of SHIT??!!
i see why you people are callled the sewer of the internet...

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>>693631854
your stance is in fact incorrect. my rebuttal is that I am sad for your refusal to address the evidence with nothing more than a straw man argument.
You did not address probability concentration with a logical statement and therefore your debate skills are found wanting.

>>693631597
You could sell the car without spending anything on registration and such, so you're in a position to lose potential earnings.

Pretend the car is a box of $1000,000
You wouldn't make a choice that doubles your chance to win it?

>>693631641
Blackoma is when people think you're an idiot for saying dumb shit equivalent to the average black IQ level.

>>693632521
Time to go back to lereddit tiny 12 year old

It doesn't become fifty fifty though. The third door is still there, and is still a choice, but you would be guaranteed a goat.

>>693632365
Sorry, my.mistake.
I misread it because I assumed you were retard ranting. You threw me with the opening of a door, which isn't necessary in the example you're giving

You are correct.
OP gives you the thumbs up.
Now join me stirring up and laughing at ignorants

>>693632432
> post article agreeing with OP
> Tells OP to stop.

Go fuck yourself faggot

>>693632521
Fucks sake.
Little Timmy's babysitter fell asleep again

>>693625820
trolls gonna troll

the goat hasn't moved, odds are decreased the same with every removal.

1/3 becomes 1/2 then becomes 1