fuk off m8

>>691499666
Why you say that?
To dumb to figure it out?

>>691499666
> retarded Timmy
> Timmy say fuk off m8
> Timmy can't explain his retarded outburst

Good job Timmy...
Your very special and your carers love you very much....

And if i want the goat? Im gonna send your whole family ass to allah for being this stupid

>>691499602

OP is a faggot.

33% -> 50% is not doubling.

>>691500546
I.forgot about faggots like you..

Take your beastiality elsewhere...

>>691499602

Monty Hall Paradox

You don't double your chance to win by switching its an increase of 1 in 2 odds from 1 in 3 odds 50% as opposed to 33.333...%

IIRC, the logic behind this is that

>Odds of choosing the right door both times is (1/3) * (1/2) = (1/6)

>Odds of the other door being the right door after the change is (1/2)

>(1/2) obviously greater than (1/6) so you should switch

But that's fucking stupid, the choice you made in the first instance shouldn't have any effect on the probability of choosing the correct door at all once you knock one of the doors out so it should still be 50/50, no?

>>691500719
But you are the faggot...
It 33% to 66%

If you're so smart, explain how there can be a 50% outcome from a choice out of three

You won't, because you can't.

Monty Hall problem is poorly explained by Kevin Spacey. It's easier if you remove Monty and just think of it as an automated process.

1. 3 doors
2. You pick a door.
3. A door which you did not pick, and which is not the correct door, is opened.

>>691501195
> both times
Both?
Where did 2 choices come from?

>>691501199

The posterior probability of a correct choice is not 66% after switching. Lern2BayesRule

>>691501413

Sorry, I meant the first choice is your initial pick, the second is after one of the wrong doors is revealed and you have the option of changing your choice or not.

>>691499602
1/3, 1/3, 1/3
One is opened.
Now it must be on one of the two remaining. Your choice still has 1/3. Therefore the Other has 2/3 ( the rest) of having the prize.
Changing nets you 1/3 extra chance.

Fk dumb

>>691501241
I dont know who Kevin is, but your 1 2 3 steps are accurate.

>>691501195
no no,

The chance you choose the wrong door is 1/3. If you switch, the chance you get the wrong door is 1-(1/3)=2/3, namely you get the wrong door if you chose the correct door initially, which is 2/3 chance.

>>691501643
But thats wrong and you're fucking retarded

>>691501612
Almost everything you said was wrong, so first second or third, it's got nothing to do with me. ..
Except for giving me things to laugh about.

>>691501490
Bayes rule doesn't apply as the choice isn't unconditional. It's always a door with a goat which is opened.

The math is like this:
Initial chance of picking right door: 1/3
Game host will then remove one goat door from pool.
Since there's a 66% chance we also picked a goat door, the last door has a 66% chance to be the car.

>>691501490
But it is...
Learn to reality.

You start with a 2/3 chance of picking a goat

That means two out of three times, you pick one goat and Monty shows you the other goat

Therefore the car has a 2/3 chance of being behind the door neither of you selected, so you switch

Fucking retards

Also easier to see intutively if you imagine 10 doors. You choose one with 1/10 probability, then 8 incorrect doors are opened.

All the probability mass is shifted onto the closed door you didn't pick.

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242 KB, 937x960

Math time.

>>691502404
Trust me, it only gets better from here
Sit back and enjoy the ride.

>>691502765
Kill yourself...
Right now.

>>691502765
Go derail something worth derailing you moron.

>>691503273
>>691503094
Babies first contour integral is just too much.

>>691503558
It's funny because you're wrong.
Switching doubles your chance to win.

>>691503905
Of course it does. I think you're responding to the wrong person.

>>691503558
Pls explain contour integral.
Sounds like something a bricklayer or plasterer may use, but doesn't sound relevant to this at all

File: WP_20160626_001.jpg (2 MB, 3840x2160) Image search: [Google]

2 MB, 3840x2160

It's 50/50 for me
So it doesn't matter if you change or not

>>691504158
You are correct, it's not relevant to the Montey Hall problem. I just put it here to see if anyone can do it, because I'm an asshole.

The basic idea of a contour integral is that it extends the Riemann integral over R to the complex plane. They are useful in calculating results in physics and computing inverse Laplace and Mellin transforms.

>>691504100
I responded to the post that had 2 replies saying dumb shit.
Both you I'm assuming.

Maybe you should go back and read the posts you responded to, because they can't be dumber than your responses.

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62 KB, 339x268

>>691504632
What does integration have to do with this problem whatsoever

>>691504294
how is this not the correct answer? it doesn't matter how the problem started, you have 2 doors to choose from, 1 is good 1 is bad you have no indication of what is behind your door or the other unopened door.

>>691505080
he just said it wasn't relevant

>>691504632
Spouting irrelevant shit is how you fail your classes anon.
Do you want to fail you classes?

Oh, your not learning any classes, your self educated on basement standard.
Good for you Timmy

>>691504737
I'm not sure what you're getting at and this discussion isn't really going anywhere.

>>691505080
He's retarded.
He posted it so he could say it isn't relevant which serves no purpose other than to make him look foolish.

>>691505701
You're trying too hard.

>>691501195
This.

>>691499602
Either you pick the goat initially:
(G) G C <- 1/3 chance
- other goat is shown -
(G) C <- 1/2 chance

Or if you pick the car:
G G (C) <- 1/3 chance
- one of the goats is shown -
G (C) <- 1/2 chance

>>691505106
It matters

>>691505106
It actually does. See
>>69150268

>>691505736
I wasn't getting at anything.
I was saying your an idiot, because everything you said had nothing to do with anything that had been said.

>>691506054
Fuck I mean >>691502608

>>691505106
It matters because the game show host opening the door with a goat behind it didn't open a random door. The game show host knows which door is the winner and opened a non-winning door.
Thus part of the randomness has been removed.

>>691505932
> trying too hard
You said things irrelevant to anything relevant.
There was no trying there, you actually did that

>>691506365
No for fucks sake, you can't fucking "remove part of the randomness" if you still have two doors to choose from at the end.

>>691501195
The easiest way to understand the problem is to imagine there are a million doors instead of 3.
999999 of them contain goats, 1 contains a car.

You pick door #120743, host then reveals goats behind every door except #120743 (the one you picked) and say, #555319.

Now it should be obvious to anyone with half a brain that it's more likely that #555319 is the winning door, than that you randomly picked #120743 out of a million and got it right.

The fact that the host eliminates all the goats (except one, if you happened to pick the right one) is the key to understanding this problem

>>691505958
That's so much better than..
You are twice as likely to choose wrong.
If you chose wrong, switching wins.

But feel free to wrote another novel about it.

>>691506365
If you pick the right door he still chooses randomly

i can it explain better than you all did.
theres a chance of 66% you get the wrong door at first choice.

so after 1st choice, one wrong door is opened. your initial choice was(and is) wrong at a higher rate(66%) than having hit the right door(chance : 33%).

So when 1 wrong door is opened, and you probably have chosen a wrong door initially, you should switch to the other door now because you can only choose between 2 doors that are left now.

now you dont choose anymore 1 door of three, you choose 1 door out of three with one wrong door being granted open. so you basically chose 1 out of 2 -> bettter chances.

when you consider the chances as a whole, you choose one door out of 3 with 1 wrong door granted, so the chance you hit the right door out of three is 66%

>>691499666
Trips speak truth, Fuck off.

>>691506688
There is no randomness.
You should probably go back to the top and read all those words that are in the OP image...

>>691507028
See this
>>691506894
You . definitely explained it better with that novel you wrote.

>>691499602
Seen this,change door

>>691507786
This anon is a great anon.
No arguing, no right/wrong convoluted math equation, no bullshit at all.

He knows what right, and states it.

>>691506875
>Pick 2 doors out of 99999
>You know that one of them hides a car
>Pick one of these 2
What is the chance you pick the right one?

>>691507028
This is absolutely wrong.
Your initial choice doesn't influence your chance of winning at all. Regardless of whether you've chosen right or wrong, one wrong door is eliminated, leaving you with one right and one wrong door.
If you look at the stay/switch problem not as changing your previous selection, but as an entirely new selection (which it is), you're either selecting a right or a wrong door, thus resulting in a probability of 50%.

>>691507639
thank you

>>691508283
But there was only ever a choice to pick one door.

Rethink your shit now that you know that.

>>691508306
thats basically exactly what i said

>>691508283
yea, haha, just like lottery m8. either you win or you dont, kek

>>691508483
What are you thanking me for?

>>691508531
The other one is picked by the host

>>691508306
I know you're excited, but everything you said is wrong.

>>691508740
for your agreement that my long explanation explained it very well and better.

>>691508542
Sorry, that was meant for
>>691502404
>>691506365

>>691508903
But you didn't choose that door, and it happened AFTER you chose yours...

>>691508941
no problem

It's not about choosing anything
In probability it's just a random number

>>691505951
>>691501195
you guys don't get basic mathematics.

>>691508925
I said your explanation was longwinded and kind of crap, the linked to a much better, simpler, fee line explanation.

I'm happy you understand the concept, but you should lay of the drugs anon

>>691509547
oh well then
never mind

>>691499602
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dciSc2rPSjE
We done?

>>691509543
and you don't get practical statistics

You people suck (unless you got 66%).

Here's a simple generalization to make it clear why the probability increases when switching.

Lets say there are 99 doors instead of just 3. 1 door has a prize, the others don't. Everything else is the same. You pick a door and the host opens another. Do you switch? Are the odds of the prize being behind your door greater or smaller than the prize being behind one of the 97 other doors?

File: DICKS EVERYWHERE.gif (35 KB, 240x208) Image search: [Google]

35 KB, 240x208

>>691508283
kek

>Make it 100 doors: 99 goats, one car.
>You pick one.
>Then the host opens 98 goat doors.
>Only two doors remain.
>Yours, and 1 of 99 that you didn't pick
>You switch, because there was only a 1/100 chance you were right on your original pick.
>There was a 99/100 chance you were wrong initially.
>You WIN if you SWITCH after having been wrong initially.
>Same logic applies to the three-door case.

Then again on /b/ the goat is probably the better prize since none of you leave your basements anyway.

>>691509684
I wasnt/didn't...
You understand the concept though,
That's rare. Don't accept their lies anon.