Always switch

INB4
> but I want a goat
> I'm Muslim
> the other door has the goats ass
> one other I can't remember

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Guessing blind out of three doors gives you a 1 out of 3 chance to choose the correct one.

After he tells you which one it isn't. Now you can guess 1 out of 2.

How is this hard you dumb niggers.

>>690296824
This anon is not retarded.
Enjoy the incoming shitstorm of retardation anon

>>690296970
Because you're a nigger so you're too dumb to understand it.

>>690296970
Fucks sake faggot...
Why post that image?

It's not a "dirty sluts wearing clothes" thread.

>>690297176
Uhh my response was correct. Please explain mr. smartypants mc autism.

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For all you idiots who don't understand why switching is better.

>>690297534
Your response was wrong Mr Dumbpants.

The OP says the truth.
Switching doubles your chance to win .

What is even the point of this? It doesn't even tell me what I'm trying to acchieve. For what it's worth I may as well turn around and leave instead of opening random doors.

>>690297773
>being this fucking retarded.

>>690296648

1st door, stay, wrong. 1/4
1st door, stay, right. 1/4
1st door, switch to second door, wrong. 1/4
1st door, switch to second door, right. 1/4
1/4 + 1/4 = im 100% right

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>>690297711

I think the reason this is hard to understand is because the problem is always framed as a game show in which case it is more complicated than simple math statistics.

>>690297534
Sorry, I'm used.to morons, not people asking...

You.choose 1/3, you have 2/3 chance of being wrong.
Host opens a wrong door, now you have a 2/3 chance of being wrong, and you know one door is wrong.

If you have a 2/3 chance being wrong, and you KNOW another door is wrong, theres a 2/3 chance you now know where both wrong doors are.

If there's a 2/3 chance.you know where both wrong doors are, then switching is 2/3 to win.

> am.am . drunk forgive shit explanation .

>>690298527
lol

>>690298020
But that's right, so.you are the retard...
Congratulations on your potato future

>>690298527
ey im drunk too.
and u wrote what i was gonna. learned that in the decision theory course i took at uni

>>690296648
you dont double you chance, you increase it from 33% to 50%

>>690297472
gay

>>690298193
You're retarded on 2 levels.
Not only do you not understand the problem, but you posted 4 potential outcomes, each with a 1/4 chance to be correct, but you said 2 of them are right.

I will never be able to understand this shit. why would you switch? the chance would be 50/50 either way.

>>690298486
No, it's because people sperg out and refuse to accept any answer other than the one they thought of.

If they were open to the possibility of being wrong, they'd see many counts of proof in this thread, but they ARE NOT WRONG, so they are destined to be retards.

what if there are 2 people picking doors, should both switch when there is only 2 doors left?

>>690297534
>>690298020
You're switching your 33% odds for 66% odds, its not just picking between 1/2 for 50%

>>690298645
>>690298957
Yeah, but I'm OP, so I'm too drunk to it plain to dummies fact I've lyrics

At least I can laugh it them tho.

>>690299049
> choose 1/3
> 50%
Surely you see the problem there?

can we turn this thread into a drinking game

>>690299101
I agree, it's gay.

>>690299271
But it's not

What was your chance of choosing correctly on your first Choice?

>>690299484
If each h individual wants to win for themselves, then yes.

Extra players in a game doesn't mean extra winners.

>>690300708
Sound good.
Everytime someone says something g retarded, or you see 50, you take a shot.

You'll be dead within an hour of 404 unless you have a friend to call the amber lamps for you

>>690301386
i got a half gal of vodka and a fifth of some viniq to get pumped out of my stomach Let's go.

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Think this is the pic I meant to post to start with.

it is 50/50

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>>690301775
No it isnt

How can any choice out of three ever be 50/50?

Sorry, random image, because browser went sperg and wouldn't let me post without an image.

>>690301663
its always a 50% chance to get a car, it doesnt matter if you switch or not. all these fucking retards need to kill themselves and stop adding to the gene pool.

>HEY GUYS MY FIRST GUESS WAS 1/3 BUT SOMEHOW THE HOST PICKING A GOAT OUT OF THE OTHER TWO CHANGES THIS TO 50%

because the chance of any event happening is 50%

So why would I switch if the goat door being opened has made both 1 and 2 a 50% chance of winning? Can't I stay with door 1 and still have 50% winning chance?

>>690303023
You should kill yourself because you're the retard...

If you think it's 50/50, explain how a choice out of three can have a result of 50/50...

Awaiting explanation of impossible mathematics, or admission of fault.

>>690303611
That is so wrong that you can't even understand it.

>>690296648
I am muslim I take goat. Keep the other doors.

>>690301508
I got a half bottle of vodka and 8-9 7% cans in me....

Let's play

>>690302823
Because only retard like you would still think over choosing the opened door

>>690304086
why? It is just obvious.

>>690304181
You got inb4'd faggot.

Take.your shitty expected jokes elsewhere...

For fucks sake, you don't lurk, it was the Seco d or third post that inb4'd your faggotry

>>690300663
If you're not a muslim then your're not taking the third option into account so its 1/2

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>>690303962
show me my fault please, fucking faggot

>>690304377
You chose before that door was open.

If you choose 1/3, you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the winner.

Anything that happens after that cannot change those odds (except every door being opened).

You suffer from the curse of the stupid person. ..

You.thi K you're smarter than everyone else.

Don't feel bad, every stupid person suffers from this.

>>690296648
select one at random and your chances of wining are 1/3

after he opens a door any door you choose will have a 1/2 probability of being the right one. the fact that you picked a door before does not influence the second scenario

>>690303962
So, the host opened the door, revealed the goat and you're still taking this door into account? It's still a choice out of three for you?

>>690304912
/thread

>>690304912
The X's aren't possible because the host knows not to reveal the door with the goat.

>>690305240
Looking at those trolling faggots they still would think over that

>>690304435
You.chose 1 door out of 3.

That means there's a 2/3 chance you didn't choose the winner.

So there's do u less chance.you DO NOT have the winner.

Host open a loser door.
Now there's only 2 doors left, but there's still a 2/3 chance you're door is a loser.
Swith WI

>>690305240
you are on /b/. good thing i explained it to you.

>>690304932
Because I AM smarter than everyone else

>>690296824
Thats a valid point, But I don't agree with you
goatrolling

>>690304435
Sorry anon, I'm drunk K as fuck..

Think like thus and ignore the other reply....

You have a 2/3 chance of choosing wrong.

Host opens opens a wrong door

Now you have a 2/3 chance of being wrong, but there's only one other door that could be right.

Your door is 2/3 chance.of being wrong, so the other door HAS to be 2/3 chance to be right.

Just read the image here>>690301663
And think about it.

If you.choose a goat and switch, you win.
If you choose the car and switch, you lose.

You have double the chance of choosing a goat, so switching doubles your chances.to win..

>>690305971
see >>690304912
you waste of human existence

>>690304976
Well if the host revealed the goat, the game would be over...

Good thing the text in the OP image makes sure that can't happen.

You.did read the words right?
You didn't just look at the picture and grunt?

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Here's a chart I made to explain it

>>690306249
Are you drunk too?

>>690304912
Hahaha. .. you got rekt by somone linking my drunken explanation...

You are actually so fucking dumb, that a ridiculously drunk person could explain it in a way that makes what you just scribbled look stupid.

Well played faggot.
Hope you're not aiming for a math or science degree once you finish highschool

>>690298445
yeah, whoever made that graph is fucked in the head. It's a bit more complicated than that, more reason you fucks will never understand

>>690305682
OK Timmy.
Where's your nurse?
Call out for your carer, you need help right now, and she's the only one that can give it to you.

>>690305839
Doesn't matter if you agree or not.
Fact is indisputable

>>690299049
to 66%

>>690306139
That poorly scribbled chart is wrong.
I'm sure linking it to me made you feel good, but it's blatantly wrong

>>690306902
That table is great. It clearly shows the outcomes, without having to delve into the statistics.

>>690306941
I'm smarter than my nurse, so i'll be okay

>>690306624
> too?
In comparison to who?

>>690307312
explain why
protip: you can't

>>690307448
>>690305971
to this babbling faggot

Imagine 100 doors. You choose one.
Host opens 98 doors with goat.
Stay or change?
Think you got correct door at first try?

Holy shit, we'll know I know the truth about the threads where people brag about their IQ..
I'm a math/stats major, this was an actually problem we spent a lecture on and had to create a proof on, I'll see if I can explain this in a way this near illiterate board can get. The correct answer is 'SWITCH'.
To start every given has a probability of 0.33 of winning, opening all three doors is guaranteed so it has a chance of 1, and so any combination of two door together have a probability of 0.67.
So the door you pick has 0.33, and the two doors you don't pick sum to 0.67. After you pick, one door of the set of two is opened, while that particular door falls to 0, the set of both door stays constant, meaning that the other door in this set of two has a probability of 0.67 and therefore you have a better chance of winning if you switch.

I think this is easier to see if you have say 10 doors. First you select, say, door 1. This single door has a chance of success of 0.1, just like every other individual door. But together all the other doors have a collective probability of containing the prize of 0.9. Now we open 8 doors, with no prize behind them, these 8 that get opened cant include your original door or the door with the prize/one random door in the 0.1 chance event that you originally selected the right door. Knowing that, do you think you are so lucky that your original pick was right or do recognize that there is 90% you picked the wrong door to start and now the only other that wasn't able to be opened has the prize? Obviously you switch.

Also the mythbusters experimentally proved that 'Switch' is the correct answer by actually getting people to play the game.

So let's put this to bed.

>>690306902
Nope not at all more complicated

>>690306902
There's nothing g complicated about this.

> pick 1/3
> 2/3 chance to be wrong
> host removes a wrong
> host let's you change your choice.
> only one choice left.

Your door still has 2/3 to be wrong, that means the only other door left must have 2/3 to be right...

I already said, read the image, and think this.

You have a 2/3 chance of choosing a wrong door.
Host opens a wrong door.
Now there's a 2/3 chance you.know where BOTH wrong doors are.

Switching wins 2/3

>>690307406
Assuming your 13, statistically you have 67 years to live, and trust me, each h year goes faster than the last.
You won't be ok..

You'll spend the next 15-20 years telling yourself you'll be ok, then you'll. Wake up and ask yourself what the fuck.you were doing all those years.

>>690307368
Except. It doesn't show all the outcomes.

>>690296970
The door that he shows you depends on which door you initially picked so the first choice and second choice are not statistically uncorrelated. If there is a 2/3 chance you chose the goat there is still a 2/3 chance you are wrong after he shows you the goat.

>>690305402
Agree

>>690307646
Well you linked to the post you replied to, so I'm wondering if maybe you've had a few.

And yes, both you linked were me, so no drunk "too", just drunk...

Doesn't make you any less of a retard for not understanding math

>>690306376
That makes sense

>>690309398
Thanks anon....
Mostly because you could follow my drunken typng

Not so hard when you understand the concept and is jot retarded.

>>690309691
It shouldn't considering there's six choices for each door.

>>690296824
Correct answer.

>>690298486
The problem is that people use heuristic reasoning and answer a different question than the one presented. The question they answer is about two uncorrelated statistical events. This question is quite a bit easier but unfortunately gives the wrong answer. If the uncorrelated question were harder people would have to do this type of thing
>>690306376
And they would be much less likely to make the incorrect choice. If you are interested read thinking fast and slow which is the book that popularised this problem.

To clear this up (with facts), both popular answers are actually correct. It can either be 2/3 chance of wining by switching or 1/2 chance of winning by switching! The determining factor is the assumed host behaviour, and that is not well defined hence the confusion.

IF we assume the host ALWAYS reveals a goat (so he knows where the car is), then by switching you ALWAYS achieve 2/3 chance of winning - FACT! This is logical - take a moment to think through this scenario. Let's say you pick door one - we all agree you have a 1/3 chance of winning. By switching in this scenario, you essentially guarantee to cover doors two and three (2/3 chance), as the host has just done you the favour of taking out one goat option from doors 2 & 3 (but critically his informed decision to remove a goat does not including door 1)! Take a moment to work this out, it makes perfect sense.

IF we assume the host has to GUESS a door (so there's a 1/3 chance he picks the car by chance), then by staying or switching you ALWAYS achieve 1/2 chance of winning where the host has randomly guessed a goat door (obviously 0 chance if he picks the car door). The host choice impacts the odds on the two remaining doors equally, as he hasn't given us any additional information in this scenario unlike when he made an informed decision in the previous scenario.

I hope this helps clear this one up! For what it's worth these are facts above, so rather then debating with me take a moment to think it through - it really does make sense!

>>690310507
OK author Joe.
What's the answer then?

You seem happy to write a novel, but never actually answer the question.

>>690310556
There is no assumed host behaviour.
Host behaviour is clearly outlined in the OP image.

You've chosen the door so you've got 1/3 chance you're right. Then the host open the wrong door. Now it's like a new game. The third door magically disappear. You have 2 options. You can either choose the first one or the second one.

>>690310507
I'll check out the book if I have time. A lot of people have trouble wrapping their mind around the concept that switching actually does improve their chance of winning.

>>690310768
Switching gives you a .66 chance of winning that was proven in the post I quoted.

>>690310958
Nope the events are correlated because the door the host opens depends on your first choice.

>>690310958
It doesn't magically dissappear.
You chose 1/3.
Your odds are 1/3
Nothing can change that.

>>690310958
you are a retard

>>690300907

33%...

>>690310145
While picking either goat results in a loss regardless of which you get, they are still two separate entities when it comes to mapping out all the possible outcomes of the problem.

>>690311077
Don't listen to this faggot. The book he's advertising was published in 2011, the monty hall problem (THE THREAD), started in 1975

>>690311331
Holy crap... you're right. Now I get it somehow.

>>690310958
No. Its based on your first fucking choice

If you have 1 in 3 chance of landing on a car... and he opens 1 door. It doesnt magically increases your chance of being correct. There are always 2 goats. Obviously you can only land on 1 goat... there will always be a second goat that he can show you, but it doesnt increase your odds

>>690310927
Unfortunately it's not explicit, hence a lot of the confusion (and also the reason there was much confusion when this problem was first presented to the public).

The example given tells us the host reveals a goat. It does not tell us if the host knowingly chose to reveal that goat because he knows where the car is (in which case switching = 2/3 chance) or if the host just happened to pick a door by chance that had a goat behind it (in which case switching = 1/2 chance).

Does that make sense?

>>690311226
Which post?
Better not be the one that had 6 outcomes per choice.

>>690311357
wrong. you should change your chance is 2/3 that door 2 is right. sounds stupid, but try it out. btw, video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

>>690311460
Which mean 66% the winner is behind behind a door you didn't choose right?

>>690310958
This guy gets it

can someone explain to me how the fuck your second door still has 0.33 chance, when the host has shown that the door you opened is not the correct door?

how does this new information not instantly bring your chances for the remaining two doors to 0.5 each, given that you now know the car is behind one of the two remaining doors. why do you not just completely discount the first door?

are these hypothetical people just incapable of absorbing information?

>>690312074
It can never become a 1/2 chance.

There is a 2/3 chance you chose a goat. A 1/3 chance you chose a car. If 1 door is revealed and shows a goat. You can switch and double your odds. This is because now... there is only 1 goat hidden, and 3 doors. So if you ignore the open door, and chose the new door. There is a 2/3 chance it has a car

>>690296648
You don't double your chance. It goes from a 33% chance to get it right to a 50% chance.
When you choose the first door there is a 1 in 3 chance you are correct. When the door is revealed it goes from a 1 in 3 to a 1 in 2 chance you picked correctly if and ONLY IF you switch.

>>690311562
That is correct.
Which means...
> goat
> goat
> car

3, not 6.

There's can't ever be 6 anything. ...
It's It's a choice out of three for fucks sake.

>>690312061
Actually, if we assume the host has knowingly revealed a door with a goat, then it does change the odds significantly. Think of it this way;

If you're going to follow a switching strategy, and the host is always going to reveal one of the two goats, you can essentially ALWAYS cover 2/3 of the doors.

If you're choosing a switching strategy, by picking door one (1/3 chance) you've actually just chosen the only door you WON'T be covering. The host now is limited to pulling out a goat between doors two and three, leaving you with the car door to switch to providing the car was in either door two or three to begin with (2/3 chance). The only way you can lose in this switching scenario is if you happened to guess the correct door at the start (1/3 chance).

All this assumes the host knows where the car is and chooses to reveal the goat. If the host is guessing at random, the logic doesn't hold.

>>690312074
It does. ...
It literally says...
> the host will open one of the doors ypu DID NOT select TO REVEAL a goat

Maybe you have comprehension issues, but don't take your problems and spread them as gospel when your as wrong as a cocksucking priest.

>>690312254
It has six outcomes because there are six possible arrangements of the things behind the door.

What is wrong with you guys? It's so bloody simple. There's 1/3 chance the car is behind the door you picked, and 2/3 chance it's behind the other 2 doors. The host reveals a goat behind one of the other 2 doors, but that doesn't change the fact that it's 2/3 chance behind the other two doors. So now the unrevealed door you didn't pick has a 2/3 chance of having the car, while the door you picked originally still has a 1/3 chance. Switch!

>>690312515(You)
i'll take your avoidant silence to mean i'm right.

>>690312679

Please read my previous post linked below which explains, it all comes down to assumed host behaviour. All will become clear. Just to clarify, this is a well known problem with a definitive answer, I'm not making this up. Google "Monty Hall problem".

>>690310556

>>690312727
No.
When you chose the first door you have a 1/3, that can't change.

You have a 1/3 chance to be right, a 2/3 chance that a door you DIDNT choose is the winner.

now the host opens a door.

Now there's still a 2/3 the prize is behind a door you didn't choose, but there's only one door left you didn't choose.

You should switch to that door, because it had a 2/3 chance.

>>690312727
Thats fucking retarded. Its always out of 3

Look lets make an exampe

1. 2. 3.

One of those doors has a car. The other 2 have goats (lets pretend door 2 has the goat)
If you choose door 1, then you have a 1/3 chance of being right. And a 2/3chance of being wrong

(1.) 2. 3.

Now the hose reveals thar door 3 had a goat, he then gives you the option to change your answer.

(1.) 2. X

knowing that door 1 has a 33%chance of being correct and that door 2 and 3 had a 66% chance.... you will want to pick door 2... because door 2 is essentially letting you pick 2 doors. Door 2 comes with whatever is behind it, plus the knowledge that door 3 had a goat. So, it is less likely that 2 and 3 have a goat. So you choose door 2

>>690313114
I was talking to someone who said that door 1 bow has a 50% chance. Im not retarded. They are

>>690313743
>>690313731

These guys get it.

>>690313198
Not explicitly clear if that is describing what happened (the host did this, and the result was he revealed a goat) or if it is implying the host made an informed decision to pick a goat door.

For what it's worth I would interpret it the same way you have, but evidently a lot of people on this thread have either interpreted it differently or don't understand the problem presented.

>>690296648
> first pick 1/3 chance of being right, call this group A
> the other two doors combined have 2/3, group B
> after the goat is revealed group B consists of one door, and it is logically the better choice.
> selection A still has 1/3 chance of being the optimal choice.

This has been established mathematically, and you can even do your own simulations of it on numerous interactive websites.

>>690314017
THANK YOU. these people are fucking retarded. They fail to comprehend. In fact they dont even listen. They swear its 50%

>>690313226
But there's 3 of them.

He fucked up.
There's 3 outcomes for each door.

There's is so much wrong with what your saying it's clear that you don't understand it which explains why his bullshit seems to make sense to you.

> 6 possible arrangements of things behind the door.
There are 3 doors, and if there was 6 arrangements behind each that would make 18....

It's wrong.

>>690313743
>knowing that door 1 has a 33%chance

but it no longer has a 33% chance. it now has a 50% chance, because we know there is a goat behind door 3.

just because you chose the door before the emergence of now information does not make that information redundant. as soon as the host reveals the goat your chances go up to 50%, without you doing anything.

>>690312374
I'm OP you Moron.

>>690314013
Well interestingly it still depends on assumed host behaviour. If you assume the host doesn't know where the goats are, and has just picked door 3 at random which happens to be a goat, then door 1 and door 2 both DO have a 50% chance of having the car.

However the generally accepted interpretation is the host is consciously choosing a door with a goat, hence 67% chance with switching.

>>690312515
It brings it to 0.66
Now suck my silence you pretentious fuck.

>>690314480
Youre not entirely wrong. Door 1 will increase to 50%. But door 2 has 66% chance.... but what we are all talking about is door 2 becoming 66%

>>690312515
>>690314480

anybody?

>>690314789
Nom you're retarded.
If you chose door 1
And the host randomly reveals or consciously reveals door 3 to show a goat, then technically door 1 has a 33% chance, while door 2 has a 66% chance. Because door 1 was chosen before the goat was revealed

>>690314881
so much stupidity

>>690314881
door 1 increases to 50% but door 2 has 66%? so there is a 133% chance there is a car?

fucking hell...

Everytime this thread is posted many people get trolled and still believe that people really think that the two door are both 50%.
It's hilarious to see so many people baited in a thread.

>>690314881
>116%

First of all lets just clarify this:
The host always knows behind which door the car is and will never open that one after you made your first guess, otherwise the show wouldn't work.
But now to the explanation:
As mentioned by someone else before you have to imagine that you have to choose 1 from 100 doors.
There is only one car so the chance to get the right door on the first guess is 1 in 100.
After you chose one door, there are 99 others left and the host will open 98 of them.
Now you just have to ask yourself:
Which is higher; the chance that you got the right door at the first try(1/100), or the chance that the host can open 98 doors with just one left andd theres one door he definitely can't open (the one with the car behind it).

>>690314150
Yes, explicitly clear in the sense of it LITERALLY SAYS THIS WORDS

you still didn't look at or read the fucking OP image you dumb faggot.

>>690314480
Assuming the host has knowingly chosen to reveal a goat (rather than randomly guessing), this isn't the case. Your odds from switching go up to 66%.

Think of it this way, when you initially pick a door in this given scenario with a switching strategy, you are in fact picking the only door you won't ultimately be covering. So that 1/3 chance to win you initially have is actually the 1/3 chance to lose you end up with - as if you happened to pick the correct door first time around, you will lose by switching.

So say you pick door one (1/3 chance). The host now does you the favour of eliminating a goat from the population of door two + three (but critically not including door one), and it's that action that shifts the odds. By switching now to the remaining door, you are in essence covering both door two and three through the hosts action. The only way you can lose is if the initial 1/3 decision you made turns out to have been the car after all. The key here is to understand the host is making an informed decision to remove a goat out of the remaining unpicked doors specifically, not out of the entire population of three doors. Make sense?

>>690314324
But that's why I make these threads.
Sure it's painful seeing this level of retardation, but you gotta admit, it's pretty entertaining at the same time.

One of the main issues people have with this problem is that they dont understand how probabilities can be changing as a result of a door being taken away. But the probabilities dont really change.

Visualize it this way. Sort into 2 groups. Group 1 has only door 1. Group 2 has doors 2 and 3. Group 1 obviously only has a 33% chance of winning, while group 2 has a 67% chance of winning. If you take away a door from group 2, group 1 and 2 still retain a 33% and 67% chance of winning, respectively. However, that 67% chance of winning for group 2 is no longer being divided by multiple doors. Just the one remaining door. So, it makes more sense to switch your pick to group 2.

>>690314480
Door 1 has a 33% because there are still 3 doors. Door 1 is the door you chose. 2 and 3 were not chosen. There is a 66%chance that the car is in one of those doors. If one door is revealed as a goat door. The othet door then has 66%chance. You are a retard

>>690314881
He is entirely wrong, and you are just as retarded as he is

>>690315507
>First of all lets just clarify this:
The host always knows behind which door the car is and will never open that one after you made your first guess, otherwise the show wouldn't work.

this just made me get it. there is a higher chance that they first door you picked will have a goat, and the host will ALWAYS open a goat door that is NOT the door which you picked. so chances are the remaning door is the car.

thanks anon! i've been one of those people who gets really rarked up about this question. hopefully now i can explain it clearly to other dumbasses like me.

>>690315260
I'm afraid you're mistaken.

Look up the Monty Hall problem, and more specifically "Monty Fall" or "Ignorant Monty", where the host does not know what lies behind the doors, and opens one at random that happens not to reveal the car. It's explained in detail there if my previous explanation didn't work for you.

If you don't understand why the random vs concious host decision makes a difference, you simply don't understand the puzzle in either instance. You've been told the answer is 66% and you've found a way to justify that to yourself without truly understanding it - else you'd know the concious decisioning by host is the key aspect to shifting the odds in your favour by switching.

>>690312733
Yes, only of those 3 things can be behind one the door. The 6 options I listed were the 6 possible combinations of those 3 things behind 3 doors at the begin of the game.

D1 D2 D3
1. Car G1 G2
2. Car G2 G1
3. G1 Car G2
4. G1 G2 Car
5. G2 Car G1
6. G2 G1 Car

>>690315518
Either you're trolling or dumb, either way I can't be bothered to explain to you again that your interpretation of the words in the OP image are not the only possible interpretation of those same words. I literally spelt it out to you in the previous post for fuck sake.

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>>690314789
There's is no ASSUMED HOST BEHAVIOUR

Host behaviour is clearly fucking outlined you dumb fucking faggots.

Pic related you moron....
It's not ambiguous, it's directly factual
Read the red words and either explain or admit.admit . your faggotry

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I made a program to test it out.
Switching is the only option.

>>690316060
Im not the 116% idiot... but im gonna respond to you. Whether his decision was conscious or not, the door you chose (door 1) will always have a 33% chance
Leaving a 66%chance among door 2 and 3. Once a goat door is removed from 2 or 3.... the odds of the left over door. Double. Leaving door 2 with 66%, compared to door 1 with 33%

>>690316572
if there's no assumed host behaviour then that means it is ambiguous. we are not told whether he knows he is opening a goat door or not, and that makes a big difference to the stats.

>>690315463
If you think they don't actually believe it's 50%, you're trolling yourself, which makes you the dumbest cunt in this thread so far.

>>690316572
Please see below:
>>690316411

Also please note this is a incredibly well known problem ("Monty Hall") and the incredibly well known misinterpretation that goes along with that problem and caused many people far smarter than you or I to incorrectly assumed 50/50 odds is exactly the issue I've eluded to.

But congratulations on understanding it correctly first time. I do apologise for explaining it to others on this thread.

Oh no wait this is the internet... I mean fuck off.

>>690316833
It says in OP's post that the Host with open a door you didn't pick with a goat behind it. Since there are 2 goats and you can only pic one door there will always be a goat behind another door after you make your first pick

>>690316306
Each goat is not an individual prize. Infact, ignore the goats. Pretend the doors are empty except for the door with the car

1.car empty empty
2.empty car empty
3. Empty empty car

This is why the game is always x/3

And never x/2

Philosophically, even if you don't switch doors you're still choosing a door. Just ponder on that a second; it's important. So if you have two door and you need to select one of them, you got a 50/50 shot regardless of if you switch or not. So in reality it doesn't matter what you do because the lizard people always win.

>>690316823
This isn't up for debate friend. It's a well know problem with a definitive answer. If in doubt, consult wikipedia, find the page on "Monty Hall problem", search for the phrase "ignorant monty" on that page and read the information available.

If you still have questions, come back to me.

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>>690316788
Shitty frame rate while recording but here's it in action

>>690317582
This guy gets it.

>>690317582
The lizard person (who I assume is the host) is eliminating a goat door from you, but specifically from the population of doors you didn't originally pick. Ergo, the odds move in your favour if you switch. Fact bro, fact.

>>690315011
Manybody's have already said this is wrong.
What are you asking for?

>>690317253
yeah, but of the host is not aware of which door he is picking there is a chance he will open the car door, which fucks the whole thought experiment / game show.

so do we assume he in conscious of the door he is opening? because that is the only way that switching betters your chances.

>>690317635
It's always x/3

It's never x/2

>>690296648
i'm starving to death and i can't eat a car

>>690296648
Someone has been watching numberphile on youtube you're awesome OP

>>690317835
But you still chose a door by not switching. When presented with 2 options you have 50% chance of being right. No matter what you do you have a 50/50.

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>>690296648
If the show always plays out the same way, then the first door pick is irrelevant: you have a 100% chance of the host revealing a goat and asking if you want to change your choice.

The only choice that matters is between the last two doors; the revealed goat does not factor in. Your odds are 50/50.

>>690318186
NUMBERPHILE RUINED MY LIFE!

>>690315011
Anybody what?

Explain that it's wrong, again...
Read the fucking thread Timmy.

>>690297711
I wish I had this display when I was first seeing this problem explained to me. because it really does break your intuition on first glance.

>>690296648
Does your mother have autism as well?

>>690315260
But the host didn't choose randomly you dumb fuck.

What made you think the host chose randomly?

>>690318291
No they're fucking not.
see
>>690317657
If you change you have a 66% chance of winning, if you stay you have a 33% chance of winning.

Is a 21,638 play sample size not big enough for you?