Thread has potential. Bumping.

Always switch.
Any moron saying 50% should an hero

>>682123179
Explain? Cuz im a moron

>>682123412
You're first choice had 2/3 chance to be a goat.

Host reveals a goat.

Now 2/3 you.know where both goats are.

Bumping to upset USAsians

i get that it works, but it's seemingly stupid. In my head, if two different people were playing two different instances of the same permutation of the game and they both initially pick different doors initially, they would both still be encouraged to change doors when in reality they would just be swapping doors. In the end, why the fuck wouldn't it be the same if they stayed on their doors because in theory someone could have ended up on the door they picked after going through the motions anyways?

At this stage, post goat reveal, your chance of winning the car is 50% - one door has the car, the other doesn't. 1/2 chance aka 50% probability.

I don't see how switching would in any way increase your chances.

>>682124742
Because if 2 different people played this game, they would be playing separate individual games.

Why would you think 2 people would be playing overlapping games?

>>682124842
And what happened to the door you first chose?
It no longer exists?

>>682124842
Nope.
That's wrong.

>>682124842
Seems.to you doesn't mean it's right.

>>682125128
two people don't actually have to be playing the same game... it's hypothetical. The door you initially picked is just a door you could have ended up swapping to.

>>682122499
If a coin is flipped eight times, and comes up heads eight times, what are the odds it comes up heads on the next flip? 1 in 2. What are the odds it comes up heads 8 times in a row? 1:256

Then there is the discussion. Switching doors is the second of these questions, not the first. By including an automatic rejoinder that the host will reveal a goat door, you have turned the problem from a simple coin flip, to 3 coin flips.

>>682125802
No it isn't.

What's behind each door can't magically swap after you choose a door, that's not how reality works.

>>682124742
first what >>682125128 said and secondly, it might be more intuitive if you'd think it of differently and focus on the chance of picking a door with a goat behind it. When you first choose a door, there's a 2/3 chance of you picking a goat. The chance of you choosing a goat is TWO times higher than choosing the car.

>>682126059
Yes.
You wrote so much text to repeat OP.
Yet in a way retards are far lead likely to understand.

Well played anon.

>>682122499

anybody seen the movie 21, or having some math knowledge can answer this, always switch

>>682126164
What the fuck are you even talking about? It doesn't matter what's behind the door you dumb fuck.

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>>682122499
Choose 1 door
3 doors to pick from
>1/3
>33.333% chance

After host opens a door
Can: remain or stay = (Choose 1 door again)
2 doors to pick from
>1/2
>50% chance

___________________________
A fucking toddler could do this.
2 doors (1 car, 1 goat)
>50 / 50

>any other answer is J00-math tricks

>>682126849
are you really that fucking stupid?

>>682122499
Math says switch, but logic says stay.
I get the whole chance rada rada rada, but does anyone consider the perspective of "It's two steps: First, a 1/3 chance. If you aren't incorrect so far, the two doors remain. A 1/2 chance." Why still consider the first door?

There's a difference between the chances of "first door will be wrong and the second will be right" and "first attempt is wrong, second attempt has a higher chance of success."

Idk how well I explained that

>>682126729
> 3 doors
> each door has 1/3 chance

Retarded anon says...
> What the fuck are you even talking about? It doesn't matter what's behind the door you dumb fuck.

And that's why you're a dumb cunt.

>>682127155
Well he is a jew...

>>682126849
>>682126059
These two get it

>>682127226
You explained being wrong right.

You chose 1 out of 3...
Opening another door doesn't change those odds, because what's behind each door doesn't change because a door got opened.

If "logic" and "maths" say different things, you've failed at maths and logic.

>choose goat
>milk goat
>sell goat milk
>buy shiny new car
>now you get goat and car

>>682127477
But not OP?

he literally said it in the first post.

>>682127652
But after one is wrong, can it not be disregarded? I would, from there, think, "Okay, there are only two possibilities left now."

Could someone explain to me how it's not a 50% chance?

>>682127778
OP here...
Forgot to INB4.

INB4
> but I want a goat
> I'm Muslim
> the other door has a goats ass

>>682128013
OP's retarded

>>682127859
No.it cannot be disregarded.
You're. First choice was 1/3.
There can be no 50%, or 1/2 from that point on.
It's always ?/3 no matter what

>>682127778
Off by one dammit

Because they're all goats

>>682128245
Okay, thanks

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>>682127477
They are really going full psy-ops aren't they?
Goys can't even do percentages anymore...

>>682127155
>3 is already proven goat

_2 doors_
>1 goat remaining
>1 car remaining
>1/2 , 1/2

50 / 50 chance

>Can't wait to see you shift this one Shlomo
>pic related

>>682128013
Your first choice was 1/3.
Had 2/3 chance to be a goat.
Host reveals a goat.

You now have 2/3 chance of knowing where BOTH goats are.

>>682127226
math is logic anon

I'm achmed, and i don't even know how to drive so gimme one of those goats instead.
here i have three rooms, two with goats one with Lamborghini
-------------
| G | L | G |
--------------

now if I have to choose one room... there's a 2/3 chance of me picking a room with a goat. Those are pretty substantial odds. so now the host removes a room, the one with the other goat! Now the only room that is left must be the Lamborghini. Because with the other goat removed i now have a 5/6 chance of having chosen the first goat. so i'm not going to switch and i'm going to fuck this goat! Alluh Achkbar

So if you wanted the car... you should switch.

>>682128348
Autism pls go

Logically it's a 50% chance.

If it starts with a 1 in 3 chance, and one of the doors is removed, it becomes a 1 in 2 chance.

Only a tard would think it's different than that. Unless there was a pattern between where the goats are.

>>682122499
this youtube video explains it.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

>>682128808
> 1 in 3 = 1 in 2

Think about that for a minute.

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/thread

I can't believe this is even up for debate. This is simple math. You do not "double your chance to win" by switching. Your initial choice of door is in no way a variable that influences the odds of a car being in one door or the other. Its a blank slate and you are simply choosing between one of 2 doors, one of which has a car. The fact that you picked one door first, and you are "switching" your decision to the other door has absolutely no bearing on probability. Its exactly the same as just picking the other door initially.

Its 50/50, and the fact that there is even a debate on this shows an extreme lack of understanding in basic math concepts.

>>682129157
It's not a troll thread when it's true you moron.

Maybe I prefer winning a goat over a car.

>>682129093
I never said 1 in 3 is the same as 1 in 2.

If I had 1 green apple, and 2 red apples, I could say 1 in 3 of the apples are green. If I took one red apple away, I could say 1 in 2 of the apples are green.

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>>682129226
The lack of understanding is from you.
Her it is in picture form...
I know you love your cartoons.

>>682129345
You got inb4'd
Move along

Monte Hall paradox.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAljAvR3L4s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0

>>682128549
This doesn't make any fucking sense. Say I picked door 2(L), you're saying even then my chances are 5/6 that I picked the goat because some idiot opened door 3(G). You would then switch from the lambo to the goat. Why is this outcome less likely?

you have 66% chance to pick a goat first pick and a 33% chance of picking a car in the first pick. you have better odds of picking a goat then picking the car. By swapping out of the goat you change your odds from picking a goat 66% of the time to 66% picking the car.

>>682129418
IF you knew which apple was taken away.

That's not the same as picking an apple you.dont know is red or green, then someone shoes you one of the apples you didn't choose.

Completely different situations.
But you're retarded, so I dont expect you to get it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_djTy3G0pg

First choice = 1/3 chance of winning

Aggregate odds of unpicked doors being a winner = 2/3

One of two unpicked doors is revealed as loser.

Remaining odds:
Your initial choice 1/3 odds of winning
Other remaining door 2/3 odds of winning

You cannot disregard the initial odds and claim "it's now 1/2" ..you can simulate this thousands of times and the more times you do so the closer the data will point to a 1/3 chance of winning without changing your initial door choice and a 2/3 chance of winning if you do change doors free the reveal. This used to be in old game shows even..

>>682129959
You don't grasp that he was talking shit to make a Muslim bomb joke?

You are now the dumbest poster in this thread.

Dont feel bad, someone else will claim that title soon enough.

>>682130271
After* the reveal

>>682122499
This is retarded posting
Do you think you are a genius by knowing this shit?
Or do you want to result more intelligent than the average /b/?

In both cases you are a faggot OP

>>682128808
If there were a million doors, you picked one, and another 999,998 were opened and discarded, would you still stick to your guns and say that what was once a one-in-a-million chance is now only 50/50?

>>682130513
I think my intentions were clear.
To laugh at people that refuse to accept the truth even after its been shoved in there face.

What are you trying to prove by this post is the better question?

>>682127237
Different anon here. I understand what the other guy is saying I think. You have 3 doors, 1,2, and 3. If you choose 1 and 3 is revealed to have a got then to increase your chances of winning you switch. Let's say you win and 1 and 3 had goats. Let's have that same situation but instead you choose 2. Door 3 us revealed but when you switch you loose. It's 50% chance of winning.>>682127237

>>682130513
Nawwwww
Did babby get his trap thread streak broken.

Fuck you faggot.

>>682128549
Finally someone puts numbers to each chance. Allahu akbar my friend

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>>682130271
I challenge any idiot here who still refuses to believe the truth to simulate this at least 100 times and come out with odds of 45% or higher wins by remaining with their same door.

>>682129989
You know what

That actually makes a lot of sense.

It's a 2/3 chance, not a 1/2 chance.

>>682130662
Best way to explain this.

>>682131100
There is no 50% in a choice of 3.
That's not possible.

Your first choice had a 2/3 chance.to be a goat.
Host reveals a goat.

If there's a 2/3 your door is a goat, and now you know where a goat is, there's a 2/3 chance the only other door is the prize.

There is no argument on this, it's fact.

just imagine that there were 100 doors and not 3. the host opens all the doors except the one with the car and the one you chose. you had a 1/100 chance to pick the correct door so there's a 99/100 chance that switching will result in a win.

>>682131550
I understand that but if they're revealing one to be a goat, you could simply take it out of the equation. So now you have the choice of 2 doors

>>682129478
Actually you are right, i stand corrected. If you scale it up it you really see it... lets say you pick between 100 doors, 99 have a goat and one has a car. Then the host reveals the other 98 doors that have a goat and you can either stay or switch. You would have to be incredibly stupid not to switch.

Apparently I need to brush up on my basic math understanding. Who says 4chan can't be educational?

Ok guys look, youre saying 'there's a 50 percent chance the door I chose is a car since he showed one of the goats' but you need to look at it from the start of the game. There was a 2/3 chance you chose a goat from the start, regardless of the fact that one would eventually be revealed.

Again, it's a game of chance, so theres no way to know for certain where the car is, but you have a greater chance getting it if you switch. Mathematically.

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>>682129478
>>682129478
>2/10 for making me respond

Here's the correct answer, don't want you to hurt your brain anymore.
>BTFO

>>682130271
This.

Ok, think about it this way, I hope this well be a lot more intuitive.
Suppose there were 1 million doors to begin with in which 1 has a car and 999,999 have a goat.
You pick one door. Now the host opens 999,998 other doors which all have a goat inside them. So 2 doors remain in total
Would you switch?
Of course you would. It's so unlikely that you picked the door with the car originally. However, since the host knows where the car is, he opens 999,998 doors which have a goat. So it is VERY likely that the door which he didn't open has a car.

The crux of this argument is that the host KNOWS where the car is. If he didn't know where the car was, then switching and not switching would have the same odds.

Hope this helps.

>>682131895
i can't believe that you are such a big idiot

>>682122499
Seeing how the host didn't listen to me the first time around I'd just stop playing his silly game, walk up to the doors, open them both, get in the car and drive out of the studio.

>>682131710
You can't take it out of the equation, because there are, is, and always will be 3 doors.

Your first choice is 1/3 there can never be any 1/2 because you chose out of three.

If your first choice had 1/3 chance of being the car, then there's a 2/3 chance the car is ANY door DIDNT choose.

2/3 the car is a door.you didn't choose.

Open one of those doors.
STILL a 2/3 chance the car is a door you.didnt choose, but now there is only one door you didn't choose.

2/3 that door has the prize.
Unless you think the car and goats can magically change which door they are being just because one door got opened, but that doesn't make sense unless.you believe in magic.

>>682132271
Holy shit I finally actually understand this problem. Thanks man!

>>682132532
Yeah I understand it now.

>>682123638
this is only true if you assume the host would only switch away from you initial choice isn't a goat. If he just switches from goat to goat your logic will fail.

>>682131749
Congrats anon.
It's basic, but not intuitive, and that why people sperg out over it.

You are the 4th convert over MANY threads.

Just enjoy the seagulls squabbling next time you.see this thread.

>>682132271
This isn't how the probabilities work, and the host's knowledge doesn't change your chances.

The basic idea is that assuming the door chosen and door opened to reveal a goat are arbitrary, there are 3 total possible outcomes: 2 of which where you chose a goat first, and 1 where you chose the car first. So in 66% of cases, switching doors gives you the car, and in 33% of cases switching gives you the other goat.

>>682131895
This isn't YLYL
Get your comedy shit away from here.

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>>682132314

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>>682133122

>>682132891
>the host's knowledge doesn't change your chances.
That's incorrect. The host HAS to open the doors which have goats in them, he can't open the door which has a car.
Look at the table in the wikipedia page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_host_behaviors
Specifically, look at "The host does not know what lies behind the doors, and opens one at random that happens not to reveal the car"

>>682132369
> leave my basement lair
You're not fooling anyone you faggot.
Just shut the fuck up

>>682131895
that makes so little sense its incredible

>>682122499

OP is right and not a faggot this time. This is the so called "Monty Hall" problem.

First you have a 1/3 probability of winning since there are 3 possible events. The host opening the third door introduces one possible event that narrows down the probability to 1/2.

By switching you increase your conditional probability of winning to 2/3 since you have to account for all possible outcomes in the probability tree.

It's not like a coin flip, which has no memory. Choosing one door affects the hosts's opening another door. Hence, we have to account the conditional probability.

>>682132794
Go and read the text in the OP image you fucking moron.

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>>682133405

>>682133364
Yeah youre right, I don't know I said that, clearly the host has to be able to pick a goat door if you happen to not pick the car first time

thats an odd variant though, its not really the same question any more

>>682133329
Who's Internet are you stealing you stinky boong?

>>682133677

That table also has some other really interesting variants.

>>682133609
I don't know what side you're on, but I don't care, I saved that shit.

>>682131895
but you're only considering the possibility that you always pick the right door the first time which is a simple 1/3 chance of happening on any game.

So 1/3 times you should stay and the other 2 you have to switch.

>>682133677
The host picks a goat door no matter what.
There's 2 goat doors, you can't pick both.

Ok, i understand how you arrive at the conclusion of switching.

But what does prevent me from doing only 50 iterations of the game, when there are 100 doors and/or switching not only the choices made but the position of the car with each iteration?

>>682134109
There is 3 variants, each choosing different doors.

Are you legit retarded or something?

>>682122499

You stay with door 1 because the goat's butt is clearly behind door 2

>>682134378
The conditions of the question.

>>682134507
You got INB4'd faggot.
Try again next time.

Each door is an independent variable. Eliminating one doesn't magically increase your chances of becoming a goat. OP should consider suicide

>>682134684

lol if you actually read threads

>>682123412
Suppose instead of three doors you're presented with 100. You choose one, and then Bob barker removes 98 others are that are incorrect and you are to choose between the bone you picked and the one other that wasn't eliminated. You'd switch right? Same principle.

If you really want bro understand this stuff look up sample and event spaces and conditional probability

>>682134736
I see you are afflicted with the curse of the stupid person...

Believing they are smarter than everyone else.

An hero yourself.faggot, because.you are 100% wrong.

But you won't. ...
You'll stay alive and spread your stupidity.

>>682134863
Which newfriends don't do.
> can't even lurk 1 thread before posting
I guess your "lol" says it all

>>682135095
>the car is behind one of the two doors
>two doors
>one car
>50/50 chance
>HURR DURR 66% OF DA CAR IS BEHIND ONE DOOR

It's a ironic a retard like you has the nerve to talk about stupidity

>>682135350
You can't just make shit up and have it become real you know...

You have a 1/3 chance of picking the car first.

Thus, switching gives you a 2/3 chance of getting the car, since the car will never be revealed.

>>682122499
i legitimately wonder if people who think it is not 50/50 are retarded or just baiting.

since
>>682129478
increase your chances of getting the car only if you have more than 1 try and the car stays behind the same door.
but in that case you would automatically know the door where the car is after the first try so it's kinda pointless.

2/10 because made me reply

>>682135662
> 1/3 of this
> 2/3 of that
> but then 3/3 that 0/3 is the answer

Fucking genius

>>682135693
You do have more than one try, and the car does stay where it began.

You didn't read the rules did you?

>>682134581
But what proves the "switching hypothesis" is the number of games played. In reality you play only once. Not thrice, not a 100 times. What if there was an infinite number of doors and iterations? How does one conclude that switching is better then?

>>682122499
If I wanted a car I would switch, but I want a goat, so I won't switch.

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What fucked me over at first is that the game leader KNOWS what's behind the doors

>>682136453
Because you had double the chance of choosing a goat.
IF you chose a goat, switching wins.

As you.said, run it through infinite iterations.....

Nobody has done infinite yet, but all simulations of this has come out at 66% win by switching.

But if you have the means to calculate infinite iterations, get back to us when you're done....

I can't help but mention infinite iterations will take infinite time, so have fun with that you fucking moron.

>>682136633
> INB4'd

>>682136780
The only way that could've "fucked you over", was if you were too stupid to read the OP pic.

You got fucked over by your own stupidity.

>>682136780
You're an insult to the pic you're posting.

THIS IS A TROLL THREAD, THE PERCENTILE QUESTION WAS IMPLIED

YOU CAN LOOK AT IT ONCE AND SEE THE ONLY RESPONSES TO 50% ARE JUST INSULTS

THIS WHOLE FUCKING THING IS BAIT

OPENING ANOTHER DOOR AND ESTABLISHING A CONSTANT VARIABLE CHANGES THE QUESTION. THERE ARE ONLY TWO UNKNOWN VARIABLES, BECAUSE ONE OF THE DOORS IS 100% A GOAT. 1/2 = .50 = 50%

>>682135290

sorry i didn't realize i was supposed to take this so seriously

>>682137902
Fucks sake anon...
If your going to attempt trolling, don't do it in all caps.

IT MAKES.YOU LOOK LIKE A DUMB RETARD AND PEOPLE WILL JUST SKIM OVER YOUR SHIT WITHOUT READING IT.

>>682138123
You being a dumb cunt and saying LOL on here has nothing to do with seriousness....

What the fuck are you talking about?

>>682138267
PROOF

>FUCK
>DUMB
>RETARD

lame ass troll threads

>people will just skim over it
>but not me i'll read it then respond

10/10

>>682139001
Yeah man, that's exactly what I said about your post being retarded?

Is there some point you were trying to make with your spastic posting?

http://www.statschat.org.nz/2014/05/28/monty-hall-problem-and-data/

Already been done - results are there

The fact that one of the doors is opened is irrelevant. The question should be rephrased, "you are allowed to pick one door. The host tells you information that you already know (at least one of the doors you didn't pick has a goat). Do you switch to the possibility that the car is behind either of the other two doors or do you stay with one door only?" The fact that the door is opened and you see the goat is clouding your judgment.

Why do people keep repeating this shit and not just take a while and think for themselves. It doesn't matter if you switch or not, whatever choice you take, you already know one thing: One of the doors you didn't pick has a goat, the thing that will change is whether there are 2 goats, or 1 goat and 1 car in the doors you didn't picked, what you know FOR FUCKING SURE is that at least 1 goat will be in one of the doors you didn't pick, what difference does it make when that door is revealed to you? You are not gaining any new information, you already knew that, and the situation changes because you are not going to choose the 3rd door anymore, you either have 1 and 2, the 1/3 probability cannot be applied anymore because the situation changed, it is 1/2 for each door closed.

Its not about reading the hosts actions. You don't need to read the hosts actions, they are stated in the question. The host will remove one door from the 3. A computer simulation wouldn't take this into account during its original decision unless programmed to do so (not that it would effect the original decision since it is arbitrary anyways). This paradox isn't a math problem. It's a comprehension problem. The math is the easy part. You can label the doors whatever you want, and make neat little graphs, but if you fail to understand the question your math will always be wrong. You aren't choosing from door A, B, and C, you are choosing between the unopened goat door, or the car door.

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>>682139424
>implying anything humans can do can capture true randomness

>>682139274
Is there some point you're making here with your languorous posting?

>>682139814
this goy gets it

>>682139814
After typing all that text, I'm disheartened to present to you the "dumbest cunt in this thread" award...

Generally it wouldn't take long till some other idiot says something dumber, but you've really taken the cake on this one.

>>682140246
Do you want to take this outside you pompous pompous little faggot? Talk shit get hit, bitch.

>>682139981
Ah, I see.
You've resorted to samefagging.
Nah cunt, no room for a faggot like you anywhere in life.

Enjoy doing what you're doing, just know that it's all you'll ever do.

>>682139814

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vRUxbzJZ9Y

>>682140423
Sure thing samefag

Right outside right now.
If.your not ther in 2 minutes you're a bitch faggot.

>>682140495
I won't bother showing you the (YOU)s that don't exist, since the irony of being called a troll by someone who hasn't offered anything but insults doesn't escape me.

>pretty sneaky sis

>>682140882
> that don't exist
Sums it up nicely.

You need much more practice Timmy.

>>682122499
>it's like a 66% chance you will win if you switch doors.
>based on the fact the host has prior knowledge and choose which to open
>I took a game theory class and we studied this game for half a fucking semester.

>>682141106
10/10 please stop responding to me

>>682140500
So, you didn't read what I said then, just because a video says something doesn't mean shit if you fail to comprehend the situation changes and no mathematical ecuation will be correct if you're changing its values while maintaining the first rules

>>682132794
Kill yourself: rape the body

>>682141240
0.5/10
Stop thinking you did anything

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability

>>682141374
10/10
stop thinking about this conversation

>>682141695
> stop thinking about this
> I trolled you so hard

Doesn't work that way faggot
You really need some practice Timmy.

>>682141374
>gonna rate 0.5
>while still replying to him

What a faggot

>>682142179
You're the only one worried about who trolled who here. I'll even call myself Timmy if it'll stop your painful-to-watch tirade.

for your own sake, stop thinking about this conversation: i'm willing to admit I have nothing better to do today than lurk on this board, you're the only one here worried about being humiliated anonymously

>>682142322
Yet your still replying to me.

Hopefully you see the failure in your plan.

>>682142603
Still samefagging.
That's failure before you even start

Imagine doing this with more than 3 doors, then you can easily see how switching benefits you.

>>682141238
When I first heard about this, I did the math to see if it was bullshit or not and it took me about 30 mins to figure it out. But you spent half a semester on it? How stupid were the people in your class? It can't possibly be that hard

>>682142642
I'm going to screenshot the (YOU)s, and I'm doing it against my better judgement because there's only two likely outcomes: You'll go completely silent, or you'll just say "hurr durr you're both stupid then."

>>682142322
>>682140882
>>682140423
>>682139981
>>682139001
>>682137902
>>682142603

stay tuned for ass-demolishing truth

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>>682142917

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>>682142917
We're they these "yous" you referred to?

>>682122499
no, you don't "improve" your odds at winning by switching. The state of the game is set before you made your original choice.

This is just a logical trick to fool faggots like you

>>682142917
Well you've already proven yourself to be stupid, and I sure won't go silent.

So have fun with whatever you're attempting.

1/3 1/3 1/3

1/3 1/3 0 becouse the host opened that one door, now the trick is that the chance doubles on both other doors.

2/3 2/3 0

So it's a 66% chance its each of the other doors.

>>682142642
Who the fuck cares if I reply or not? You're the one rating others "hurr durr 0.5" and still replying to them, if it really was that low of a rating for you, you wouldn't even bother to reply, but you're such a fucking faggot you do it anyways, you're only hurting yourself with that argument, champ.

>>682123638
op wants the goat for muslim waifu fuckery

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>>682142917

>>682143439
alright bro thanks for the blessing have a good one

>>682143366
This. Can we put this to rest already? The question in the picture is about switching, unless the fucking goat switches places with the car behind the scenes then the chance of winning stays the same whether or not you switch. Two doors, one choice, 1/2 = .5 = 50%

fuck off already

Its a scam. The car is behind all three doors, and the two goats are trained to move to a new door, in accordance to what the presenter repeats from the competitor...."..So you want to stay with door one?.....". You always lose.

How the fuck is it not 50%. You know where one of the goats are and have two doors to choose from with zero clue where the new car is. That is fucking 50%. Where's the fucking logic in this puzzle

>>682143620
Internally repressed sexual frustration.
Make a lot of sense....

Cheers anon.
You helped me understand some random retarded moron that thinks he's King Troll master.

>>682143744
> thanks for the blessing
Proceeds to spit some thing so retarded it can only be a pathetic troll tonado.

So much samefag now

>>682144487
>167 replies
>60 posters

Wow, I don't know what we would do without you, thanks for pointing that out, captain fucking obvious

>>682144610
You don't even know what samefagging means you fucking moron.

> there was 60 people in that thread I didn't like
> must all be samefag

That's not how it works

>>682144984
Kek he's already shown he can't do math what do you expect

>>682144984
>>682145337
And this ladies and gentlement, is the prime example of samefag, for those who were looking for it.

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>>682144610
You can't screenshot
You can't crop

Give it up kid, you're just digging your own hole.

now it's just getting sad in this thread

prune plz

>>682145814
>updating
>having autoupdate on

Enjoying trackers inside your computer I see, cute.

Lets make it easier:
There are a 100 doors. One has a shiny new car behind it. You pick one. The game master now opens 98 doors. Do you switch to the other remaining door, or stay with your own door.

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>>682145711
I doubt anyone was looking for anything you had to offer, but since you put it out there, here it is...

PROOF of samefaggotry, or proof he's a fucking fucking idiot.
Let the evidence decide.

50%

I may be a retard but at least I'm right.

>>682146357
>look ma, I can use paint!

How fast they grow up.

>>682145878
Prune means 1 more trap/mlp/FBfap/rate me thread get on.

Do you really want that?

>>682122499
Monty hall problem.
Always switch.

>>682146647
Yes, because then a slot for a good thread would be open.

>good thread
look ma i'm a contradiction

>>682143744
Checked even though you're a retard.

>>682145952
> doesn't understand auto update.
You are legit retarded, it's not even a question at this point.

>>682146499
On mobile.
Yep, that's how stupid you are.

>>682146784
My thread started good.
It's just at the rail end some fag decided he was a master troll.

Even a shit thread is better than the cancer I listed, and you're good with that?

Well fuck you, you're cancer.

>>682147299
10/10 concept comprehension

>>682146812
If you "checked", you're the retard....
The specific labeled type of retard, as yo u all are these days..

You're autistic.
Congratulations.
Enjoy Al the random.number patterns that come up in 4chan posts for the rest of your life..
Hope there's a retirement plan for that.

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>>682145711
Try again buckaroo. on second thought just don't. You've already demonstrated your incompetence enough in this thread

>>682147590
> 10/10 faggot compression
Compressing their dick up your cornhole

This thread has been pure gold. Have to wonder how many are just trolls and how many are actually retarded

>>682148045
It took you that long to fake a mobile shot and shop it to say I said that?


Here's where your clever tricks collapse.
How can anything you post show that I posted anything?

So fucking dumb.

>>682146946
>theres no image editor on phone
Yep, that's how stupid you are.

>>682148803
Sure there is....
Give me an example of an image editor on mobile that could do the job you are talking about.

>>682149040
There's like a dozen I could name easily

>>682149040
>i buy smartphones without knowing what they actually can do

And here I thought you were just retarded, you're a mongoloid

>>682146274
Someone already explained it this way fag

>>682149129
But for some reason you didn't post a list of 12 like you were asked to do.

It's almost as if you are full of shit or something

New game same principal.
100 doors,1 Car, 99 Goats
You choose a door.
Host opens other 98 Doors revealing all goats.
You can stick with the one you chose which still is 1% chance or you can switch to the other which has a 99% chance.

>>682149217
/thread

>>682149573
two anons have already explained it this way fag

>>682149129
>>682149217
Fucks sake man, stop with the samefagging.

Or.if you're going
to samefag, at least wait out the post cooldown period a while to avert suspicion.

You know we can see the times of posts right?

>>682129093
This

Mathematically it is correct to say chances are 2/3 to win a car if you swap. Does it mean you should always swap? No, becouse it still a probability measure. In terms of logic, it doubles the chance of winning a car. But it's still 2/3 chance, not 100% guarantee. You can analyze it on pure probability base, to define which choice is better in means of more probable. But to say swapping gives you winning is wrong - it only gives you bigger chance of winning. Actualy there is whole another theory depicting this situation, called theory of risk or game. Think of those 1/92 situations in poker, how many times staying by your chances to get this one winning card paid off? It's about risk

>>682129478
All of you 50% tards need to see this and get rid of your extra chromosome

>>682150204
Nobody said that you idiot.
Swapping doubles you CHANCE to win.

>>682150419
It doesn't fucking retard, you're choosing between 2 doors now, not 3 anymore, it's 1/2 = 50% for each

>>682147299
Retards and people who can't think of being wrong got baited hard. The only 50% in this bread is the people who can't bother to open their eyes

>>682147692
Checked your dubs idiot, you're still the retard who can't comprehend simple probability.

>>682122499
What if I pick the goat?

>>682151087
Yeah, I know...
I'm OP.
why the fuck are you saying that shit in reply to me?

>>682151447
>hurr durr le dubssss le dubs!!!

Soo now you end up memeing? That's when people know you've failed an argument, sir.

>>682151447
> looked at post numbers
> calls others idiots

How's the autism. Working out for you?
TRIGGER WARNING
11 22 33 44 55 44 66 77 11 88 99 11 00
11 33 22 55 44 77 66 55 00 99 77 88 99

>>682122499
The catch here that reconciles why the correct answer (always switch) makes sense, but seems to defy conventional logic, is that the host does not select a random one of the two doors you didn't choose. The host ALWAYS picks a goat door. You only need to briefly consider the implications of that to wrap your head around the problem.

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>>682151673
>>682151673
How fucking dense are you? I'm clearly correct about the monty hall problem and correct about the context of checking your dubs so now you resort to insulting me can you're too proud to admit you're wrong?

>>682151500
Why not

>>682150419
I just explained this situation On wider field than just answering op's question. My post can be splitted in two parts. First sentence is answer to main probability qestion. Rest is simply adendum in spite of other things you should consider. But yeah, I'm the idiot here... ( irony used, smarty, in case you can't catch it)

So either you pick the car on your first pick or you pick a goat and the second goat is revealed and the other door has the car. Sounds like 50/50 to me

>>682151849
Do me the honor and explain how I'm autistic for checking his dubs even though he's an idiot who can't comprehend how probability works

>>682152358
You're not clearly correct about the monty hall shit, what the fuck is your problem? Just because normies spout the same shit over and over will never make it right, you cannot combine math and statistics to something if you're going to change it later (from choosing 3 doors, to only 2), you will have to make a new math/statistic with only choosing 2 doors now, how stupid can you be? Holy shit, fucking normies these days.

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>>682122499
keep and fuck the goat

>>682152702
Instead of looking like an idiot even further how about you take five fucking minutes to google "the monty hall problem" then come back to this thread? Or would you rather I explain the solution to you step by step?

>>682122499
Well, if the goats head is sticking out of door 3, the ass has to be sticking out of door 2.
Thereby, door 1 is the smart choice, so I would stay.

>>682152444
Because it made no sense.

If you saw some guy on the street shouting 1+1=2, you wouldn't argue with him, and that essentially what you did,
So your response of "why not", is pretty retarded...

>>682153130
This is the same thing I have been repeating this thread yet you're still eager to ask me that? Holy shit, I already said to stop spouting what normies say, you know which normies? Yeah, those you want me to google, I already stated you cannot apply the same math to the second part of the problem, that's something monty hall problem will never state and why you're so confused, it's not a problem about math, it's about comprehension, which clearly you don't understand, see >>682139814 for more details, I am clearly saving that pasta for future threads for faggots such like yourself.

>>682153335
I wasn't trying to argue with you, although I am pretty retarded so if it seemed like it my bad

>>682152536
Because this.
>Mathematically it is correct to say chances are 2/3 to win a car if you swap. Does it mean you should always swap? No

You ALWAYS swap. That's how statistics work

>>682122499
OP is correct. The host will never ever open the first door to reveal a shiny new car and ask if you'd like to switch.

>>682152685
You're autistic for checking dubs.
Anything else is irrelevant.

You don't think normal people actually look at post numbers do you?

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>>682153444
That's still wrong. The question is to be looked at as a whole, not two parts. If what you say is true and the math gets changed as soon as the door is opened, then in a simulator it would be 50/50. However it isn't 50/50 so you're just straight up wrong. Look at the picture in this post. Illustrated are all the possible positions of the goats and car. Assuming door 1 is always chosen, 2/3 times it's a goat. Since the host ALWAYS reveals a goat, a switch on the occasions when a goat was picked first results in the car being won. The chance of winning by switching, assuming that the host always reveals a goat and does not open your door, is 2/3 and not 50/50.

>>682153533
Fair enough.
But do you understand it yet?
Do yo agree that switching doubles your chance to win?

>>682154530
>still wrong

It is not 2/3, it is 1/2, because you're never, let me repeat, NEVER, going to choose the door the host opened for you, unless you're retarded.

What does that leave you with? That's right, 2 doors, a door with a car, and a door with a goat, the host is not doing anything beneficial or detrimental to you, since you already know a door will have a goat on your first choice, regardless if he opens it or not.

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>>682154068
>>682154068
Shit that's brutal, you've hurt me so deep with your off topic insult I may have developed PTSD. Is your simple mind satisfied now?

>>682154578
No, yeah I got this explained to me a long time ago. Btw, I wasn't the anon you were arguing with earlier

>>682155060
>le meme reaction faces

Yeah, your argument has been pretty much destroyed at this point.

>>682153131
You think you're being clever, but you were INB4'd

Even your shitty jokes were preemptively countered.

>>682153840
Probability is another form of equations that defines statistics. I can just say that I won't swap and whole absolute usage of statistics is wrong. Based on percentage i should swap, but i can also stay

>>682122499
>retard

Stop sucking dicks OP, even you got it wrong first time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

>>682154951
How are you still confused even after seeing the chart? There are three scenarios. In two of them switching wins the car. In one of them switching got a goat. It's as simple as that. It isn't a debate, this problem has already been solved by people much smarter than myself. If I cant convince you using words and a chart then maybe one of them, but honestly bro I don't understand how you can't understand.

>>682155370
What argument? You called me autistic for checking dubs thinking it was super clever and I remained unbothered. I presented no argument....

>>682129859
Man, that absolutely makes no sense.
If a door is opened, the chance is taken away, so it is written off. It is left out of the possibilities.

>>682156125
>chart

You're still relying on math instead of comprehension, there's not much I can do to help you anymore, you're on your own brah, go swim in your pool of retardation, I've had it.

>>682154951
>Referring to the Second choice
You will.mever never ever ever begever choose the door that you already chose.
So combined with all the never never that anon spouted, there should be a 100% win.

Fuck knows what it is, because he was retarded, but it was fun to play his game for a little bit.

Oldfag here. I started a thread just like this in 2009 and people freaked the fuck out and started accusing me of being part of a Zionist conspiracy to brainwash children. It was classic. I haven't been on /b/ in a couple years and I just checked today for the first time since. It brings back memories to see that /b/ is still shitting itself over the Monty Hall problem. Thank you for warming my heart.

>>682156393
Oh, really? glad we cleared that out of the way, now I can easily report you for shitposting and you're pretty much fucked.

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>>682123412
>>682124742
>>682124842
>>682126059
>>682126849
>>682127477
>>682128013

if you pick 1 door from 100 doors, host reveals goats in 98 doors, there's 2 doors left, then you would switch and the chance of winning would now be 99%. you'd only stay if you were severely retarded.

internet arguments won today: 100

>>682156623
Report me for shitposting? I've been having a discussion with the guy I originally replied to that's been relevant to the thread while all you've done is attempt to troll me. Good luck faggot

>>682156546
>You will.mever never ever ever begever choose the door that you already chose.

Except the host ask you if you want to stay or switch, which means you're pretty much choosing which door again, how can you not comprehend that is beyond me, it's 1/2 now, base your math and assumtions around that, instead of the 1/3 you clearly are not going to choose a goat that is already opened.

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>>682155060
Off topic?
Responded to a direct question you asked me.
In case you forgot, PIC RELATED..

You're not right in the head are you?

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all of the fucking retards in here'
this is why any other board is better than /b/

>>682156521
>>682156521
Your math isn't wrong but it doesn't apply here as you aren't properly comprehending the situation. This is a problem of both comprehension and math. One must be able to comprehend that the math creates a 2/3 probability of winning if one switched. That's the math. I know I can't convince you of your error but thanks for at least hearing me out. Peace

>>682156814
thread/

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The monty hall problem only works if behind the doors is a schrodinger void where a nebulous car/goat hybrid exists until the door is opened

the host will 100% of the time open a "wrong" door, reducing your choices to two- which literally means that no matter what you do, your choice will have a 50/50 outcome. This is assuming this is a real life scenario.

>>682156393
You dumb faggot, that wasn't him, it was me.
I called you autistic for checking dubs, and will.co to use to do so for any faggot that cares about post numbers.

But to shut you up, here you go...
I replied to your nonsense too >>682157124

>>682157747
I'll fucking kill you if you talk to him like that again