50%

>>679262758
50%

>>679262975
>>679262975
>>679262940
/thread

I feel dumb, how is it 50%

Can you please explain your logic.

Well now that it's solved how bout we turn this shit into a gore thread

>>679263168
There are only 2 boxes that have a gold ball. You take one gold ball out of there, and there's either a silver ball or a gold ball still inside.

>>679263168
Either g/g or g/s box.

>>679263168
its simple, since 2 boxes contain a gold ball in the 1st place. If you picked up a gold ball from one of the 2, that means it could be gold or silver. Therefore 50/50 chance of the other ball being gold.

>>679263168
It's not.

>>679262758
2/3

>>679263468
How?

>>679263468
Then what is it you fucking idiot?

>>679263457
>>679263434
>>679263419
>>679263468

Yeah now I feel really dumb, that was easy.

>>679262758
the answer is 33%

the question is worded very deceptively, but it is essentially asking the probability of selecting a box that will yield 2 gold balls.

>>679264031
How gay do you feel on a level of having a dick in your mouth all the way to having a dick in your ass?

>>679262758
there's a chance you just picked from the gold box, so the remaining chance is 100 %.

there's a chance you just picked from the mixed box, so the chance is 0 %

There's no chance you just picked from the silver box, so the chance is 0%

the overall chance is 40%, assuming non-replacement, and 50% assuming replacement

It would be 25% or 1/4 right

>>679264031
>what is the probability that the NEXT ball from the SAME box is gold?

Only two boxes have gold balls so obviously 50%

It's 2/3 google "Bertrand's box paradox"

Its not 50% guys. Just google bertrands box.

>>679264616
>>679264682
Yeah, no, some old guy with an outdated theory on why it's 2/3. It's 50% deal with it.

Briefly explained, there are three possibilities:
>The gold ball you chose is the first of two in the gold-gold box
>The gold ball you chose is the second of two in the gold-gold box
>The gold ball you chose was from the gold-silver box
2 of those 3 possibilities result in a gold ball being selected next.

There are three possibilities.
1. You pick Ball #1, then Ball #2 in Box #1 (gold ball)
2. You pick Ball #2, then Ball #1 in Box #1 (gold ball)
3. You pick Ball #1, then Ball #2 in Box #2 (silver ball)

2/3

>>679262758
Its actually 66% chance it has the second gold ball because the other 33% from the silver balls box carries over to the boxes left over

>>679265325
Same box fag, so if you've picked a gold one, automatically know it's not the 3rd box. so it's 50% cause you'll either pick up another gold 1 or a silver one.

>>679265474
omg yes that makes perfect sense how could I have been so stupid of course just carrying over things how dumb of me

>>679265541
But if you have a gold ball on your first draw, you're twice as likely to have gotten in from Box 1

>>679265325
It's not based on the probability of pulling the balls it's based on the probability of getting the right box so it is 2/3 but not because of what you said

The question is a retarded math trick and the answer is 66%.

>>679265541
>>679265855
Listen guys I googled this shit and read it up very briefly on Wikipedia.
Are you gonna look me in the eye and tell me to my face that our Lord and Savior Wikipedia is wrong?

>>679262758
3 possible remaining balls, 2 gold
2/3

>>679265093
I hope you're not serious right now. Since you have a gold ball you're either in box 1 or 2. If you're in 1, you get the gold ball next, if not, you don't. Simple as that. 50%

>>679266146
Nope, 50% you've already eliminated 2 boxes so you're either gonna get a gold ball 50% or a silver ball 50%

You guys are fucking stupid the odds are 1/3 I'm doing my masters in stats

>>679266306
literally retarded

9/11

It's worded differently.
If, like on OP the fag's post. You ALREADY have picked a Gold Ball, then It's either box 1 or box 2. 50%

In Bertrand's "paradox" you havent picked a box yet. So simply put, whats the chance BEFOREHAND of having picked the n'1 box if you found a Gold Ball first --> 66%

>>679265077
No it really is 2/3. Putting this problem through a computer yields that same result.

>>679266431
Underage ban. MODSSSS

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>>679266242
Here, shitty MS Paint explanation I threw together

>>679265325
the balls aren't numbered. there is no gold ball 1 and gold ball 2, they're both identical gold balls. it's a 1/2 chance

>>679265782
Look up the Monty hall problem faggot

It's only 66% chance if both boxes were available to pick, but since there's only 1 in there, the decision has already been made so therefore it's a 50/50 and not up to you

>>679266650
Yes and I suppose you've only got a 1/36 chance of rolling two different numbers on a die.
After all, the dice are identical.

>>679266879
they're gold balls, not die, you dumb shit

>>679266484

This guy figured it out

>>679267018
How about you go roll and die instead.

>>679267158
ladies first, faggot

You can analyze it by boxes or by balls.

Box analysis:
> 3 boxes: GG, GS, SS
> can't be box SS
> either GG or GS, at random
> 50% chance of being either
> if GG box, 100% chance of drawing another gold ball
> if GS, 0% of drawing another gold ball.
> so 0.5*1 + 0.5*0 = 0.5
> 50%

Ball analysis:
> 6 balls
> S1, S2 in box SS
> G1, G2 in bid GG
> S3, G3 in box GS
> draw a gold ball,
> can be ANY of the Gs. 1/3 chance for any.
> if G1, then next ball is G2. So 100% of a second gold
> if G2, then next ball is G1. So 100% of a second gold
> if G3, then next ball is S3. So 0% of a second gold
> 0.33*1 + 0.33*1 + 0.33*0 = 0.66
> 66.7%, or 2/3 chance

Which analysis is correct? Both of them are. Statistics is made up, probability is always either 100% or 0% in retrospect, based on if it did or did not happen. Both are valid.

Sincerely,
A mathematician.

>>679266484
what the fuck are you on about you cumchugging cockburgular? If you found a gold ball first you already picked a box you dimwitted dick shifter.

>>679267275

Read the Words, cunt. I wrote them for a reason .

>>679262758
20% fag

>>679264031
The questions has givens. It is a given that you have selected a gold ball already from one box and will guaranteed reach back into the same box. It asks what the probability of the NEXT ball will be, resulting in 50%, because you have eliminated any probability of drawing from the box with zero gold balls.

>>679267224
But if you do this experiment, you actually get a distribution of 2/3 gold and 1/3 silver.
Only the ball analysis is vaild.

Sincerely,
A physicist/mathematician

this isn't the monty hall thing... but it's 1/2.

learn to discrete math motherfucker. you don't even know how fucking stupid it gets when you have 20 unique balls into six generic boxes vs 20 generic balls into six unique boxes. that shit sucks my balls. i got a C and fucking hate it and have to take it again and i'll never use it in computer science and FUCK THAT FUCKING SHIT. 3 grand to learn faggot bullshit twice.

the monty hall thing is all stupid. it assumes that when you pick door number 1 and it's not it, he offers the wrong one on purpose every time. it's totally flawed.

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It's only a 2/3 chance if you count the two gold objects in the same box as being separate.

The question does not consider them separate. They are effectively the same object for the purpose of the question being asked.

You need to put the problem into the context of a statistics equation, which is probably where this question came from. Statistics has all kinds of dumb rules, such as "households" having "2.5" children. No household has half a child, ignoring edgey summerfags, people only exist as a whole person or they don't exist at all.

>>679267490
What reason was that? To prove that you're a mongoloid?

>>679267224
>>679267533
wrong

sincerely,
a numeral psychiatrist

>>679267533
"If you do this experiment"

Theory=/= Reality

Can you fucking "test" the prisonner's paradox ?

>>679262758
removing a gold ball out of the box gives you an extra 33.3% chance. so you're looking at roughly 66.9%. GTFO

>>679262758
50%

>>679262758
33.3333333...%

>>679267721
I don't think you're qualified to answer with a C queer. It has nothing to do with assuming that you were offered the wrong door first.

The problem is that the box with both a gold and silver ball is not equally likely to produce a gold ball on the first pick as the box with two gold balls. The fact that you pulled a gold ball on your fist go makes it slightly more likely that that ball came from the box with two gold balls than from the box with one of each.
The answer is 2/3

Why are you morons still debating when this guy just fucking showed you with pretty pictures the answer?

>>679266602

>>679264616
That doesn't work here because you aren't removing one of the options from an outside force you are getting extra information and then removing one of the options with this information. you can prove this by making a table that has all of the options on it and cross out the ones that don't work with this you can clearly see its a ℅50 or getting two gold

>>679267778
Do you have 3 nickels, 3 pennies and 3 envelopes? Then you can do this right now.

2/3

It you pick a Gold ball, it is more likely that you picked it from Box #1.

>>679267533

If you play Russian roulette with a 6 barelled revolver and lost.
What are the odds of you having lost ?

100% not fucking "1/6 because if you would test this, you'd test it from the beginning", cum-gurgler!

>>679268146
you have to take the boxes into account
its 500%

>>679267751
Actually they're both right and wrong at the same time.

Love,
A quantum particle engineer

>>679268146
Thanks anon

>>679265325
No because you have already selected the box and not picking balls out of a bag at random

>>679268146

He is answering another problem !

In this question there is no 1st pick.

You already have picked the Gold Ball.
So it's either from the first box or the second box. 50%

>>679267533

If you do the experiment, only the ball analysis is valid if you count the whole time.

> pick random box
> reach in and pick random ball
> if G, proceed
> if S, discard
> do stats on this approach on how many second G's were found over multiple trials

This is the ball approach.

> pick 'random' box
> be told first ball is gold
> in a single trial, the second ball will be either gold or silver.

The box approach is not statistical, but it is logical

>>679268309
No you don't. The question specified that you pulled a gold ball on the first try. He went through every permutation and eliminated the ones that don't fit the question. 2/3 deal with it.

>>679267737
niggers

>>679268677
he didnt take the boxes into account
draw some boxes then talk

>>679264263
This would depend on if you are 12 or not?

>>679268604
intuition != logic

>>679263586
not the other anon, but you are right if you are referring to change, in terms of probability, nope. Because you have already had a gold ball, the probability is something like 33% of getting another gold ball, much like the coin flipping dilemma, first flip 50/50 for heads, if you get heads again the odds are more so going to flip onto the side of tails. That's probability.

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>>679268986

>>679266602
that actually makes sense, thanks

50%

You guys saying 2/3, I see what you mean, but read the text again "You have picked a gold ball"

You just appeared in this room with a gold ball in your hand. There was no prior picking.

Which box has another gold ball ? Fuck if you know, it's 50:50

>>679267721
WHAT THE FUCK IT DOESNT ASSUME THAT AT ALL YOU ASS

>>679262758
odds are 2/3

You could be picking gold ball 1 in box 1 or gold ball 2 in box one or gold ball in box 2. you are left with 3 options you pick gold ball 2 in box one, you pick gold ball 1 in box one you pick silver ball in box two. 2/3 of the time you will be picking a gold ball

>>679263498
winrar

>>679269327
You are right and wrong, in terms of change, correct. Probability you are wrong. Ever learned chance and probability in school? i admit it made no sense to me at first but it was easy to understand. Basically, if you flip a coin heads 100 times, its not a 50% chance of heads, its waaay less, cbf doing maths so ima just sat 1%. So its more probable the coins rigged or you're going to hit tails.

>>679267721
The Monty Hall Problem literally boils down to:
>If you switch, you're betting on your initial choice being wrong

>>679268924
he specifies boxes with the brackets horsefucker.

>>679269592
lol you think gamblers fallacy is real

>>679268604
wrong.
even in a single trial, there are 3 possibilities that could lead to you picking a gold ball the first time, and two of those will mean a gold ball on the second pick

>>679269674
wrong

Scientific method bitches.

Create the scenaio at home with boxes and coloured balls see what happens.

OK EVERYONE CHILL THE FUCK OUT, I got you dawgs.

Lets ask the same question with heads&tails.

Like in Bertrand's paradox: If you flip a coin twice. What are the odds of getting 2 tails ? 1/4 right ?

Ok. Now, like in this poorly worded question: if you flip a coin twice and got tail on your first flip, what are the odds of getting two flips in a row ?
Well 50%

it's very obviously 2/3, are you dipshits seriously not getting this?

>>679269953
Yes, but those coin flips are independent. This situation isn't.

>>679269953
that's not what this is
you're misunderstanding the problem

>>679269953
Getting two tails*

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>>679270080
>

>>679269953
No man it's totally fucking different because in Bertrand's paradox the fact that you drew a gold ball adds the first time adds strength to the possibility of drawing another one

anyone saying it's 2/3 is being trolled by cumgoblins

>>679270344
Depending on which box you got there's either a 100% chance of drawing another gold or a 50% chance. The average of these values is 66.6% or 2/3. It's counter intuitive I know.

>>679270344

Well the fact that I dont have pocket change on me all day seriously adds strenght to me not getting 2 tails in a row

>>679269858
bong

>>679270555
Hum no, it's either 100% to get another gold, or 0%.
Like some anon said earlier it's : 0,5 x 1 + 0,5 × 0 = 0,5

>>679265093
You, sir, are mentally handicapped.

>>679270555
it's either 100% or 0%, not 50%
if you chose the mixed box, then your chance of pulling another gold ball is 0

>>679270771
ok I don't know where the math is coming from there (why are you multiplying them both by 0.5?), but what you're not getting is that the fact that you chose a gold ball the first time means that there is not an equal chance that it was chosen from the two possible boxes. it is more likely that it came from the box with two gold balls. this means it is more likely that the second pull will also be gold

>>679266602

But you already drew from one of the boxes. It's 2/3 chance if you're starting from scratch and assuming a gold ball on the first draw.

Since we know the first draw is a gold ball, we know 100% that we're either in the G/G box, or the G/S box.

The chance of it being one box vs the other is then 50/50, and one will guarantee a silver draw and one will guarantee a gold draw. 50%.

>>679270777
he's right

>>679270771
gum ho, it's either 66.6666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666...6% chance to get another gold, or 66.66666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666...6%. Like some anon said earlier it's 2 remaining gold balls and 1 remaining silver ball, 2 +1 = 3, odds of a gold ball is 2/3.

>>679271225
>The chance of it being one box vs the other is then 50/50
this is where you fucked up
the chance it came from the box with two gold balls is higher

These threads are so fucking gay, probability is gay. Math is gay. You're all gay

>>679265077
>>679263457
>>679263419
>>679262975
>>679262940

All these retards believing it's 50% didn't you have statistics and probability in school?

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>>679262758
OP successfully started a War between retards. Props OP. Also it's 50%

>>679271225
There are three gold balls, and your first ball has an equal chance of being any of them.
Therefore, you're twice as likely to be choosing from the GG box.

>>679271527
That's me samefagging so you sir are the retard.

>>679271225
the question is not "what is the chance that you picked the box with two gold balls?" it is "what is the chance that you pick another gold ball?" the chance of it being another gold ball is 2/3, and the chance that you're a dead pig fucker is 100%

There are six possible balls you can draw: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Balls 1, 2, and 3 are gold. If you draw 1 first, you must draw 2 next. If you draw 2 first, you must draw 1 next. etc

First ball, gold first y/n, second ball, gold second y/n:

1, y, 2, y
2, y, 1, y
3, y, 4, n
4, n, 3, y
5, n, 6, n
6, n, 5, n

It is known that you pulled out a gold ball on your first draw, so we can eliminate the last three draws straight off. In fact, box 3 is irrelevant. We could have had a million boxes of silver balls and nothing would change. They'd all be eliminated at this step.

1, y, 2, y
2, y, 1, y
3, y, 4, n
_______
_______
_______

Two scenarios exist where your second draw is gold. The chance of the second ball being gold is 2/3.

>>679262758
"once and for all"

That's the true answer.

>>679271766
>the question is not "what is the chance that you picked the box with two gold balls?"
actually that's essentially what the question is asking

>>679262940
>>679262975
>>679264274
>>679264413
>>679265077
>>679265474
>>679266087
>>679266306
>>679266423
>>679266484
>>679266650
>>679266850
>>679267224
>>679267498
>>679267721
>>679267874
>>679267960
>>679268175
>>679268309
>>679268583
>>679269097
>>679269327
>>679269528
>>679269953
>>679270504
>>679270771
>>679270836
>>679271225
found the cucks

People are mixing up independent and dependent results. It's not 2/3. The choice of the box doesn't affect the results at all. The fact that you already drew one gold ball means you either have box 1 or box 2 thus 50%.

>>679269097
That's not how probability works you fucking retard. That's called gambler's fallacy.

>>679271882
>st draw, so we can eliminate the last three draws straight off. In fact, box 3 is irrelevant. We could have had a million boxes of silver balls and nothing would change. They'd all be eliminated at this step.
You must draw the second ball from the same box.

OSHITOSHITOSHIT ur a retard. Congrats.

>>679272079
I don't think you know what that word means.

>>679271437
>>679271766
>>679271627

I do get where the 2/3 is coming from, but I see it more like this anon >>679269327

Furthermore, I'm watching that X Files episode where everyone gets all those boils and it all originated from that dead pig in the woods. Would not fuck.

>>679272025
actually that is not what it's actually asking actually.

>>679272111
you're fucking retarded

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>>679262758
90% because I am very lucky.

>>679269097
>not understanding that every flip is an independent event, each flip of a coin doesn't affect the next coin toss at all
Based on your reasoning flipping HTHT would have a higher probability that flipping TTTT even though they have the exact same probability of happening.

>>679272299
found the cuck

>>679272333
then you see it wrong and you don't get where the 2/3 is coming from

2/3, I thought it was 1/2 at first too.

Your chances of drawing a golden ball from the s/g box was 1/6, and 2/6 for the gg box. Since its 2x more likely that you drew the ball from the gg box, it's 2/3 probability you'll draw another gold

>>679272533
I don't think you know what those 3 words mean

>>679272428
it's exactly what the question is asking, dumbass

>>679262758
You're *the* smartest
Once AND for all

>>679272215
A+ for this guy. He actually knows wtf he's talking about.

>>679272679
discovered the cuckold

>>679262758
it's 50% this is easy as shit

>>679272845
Google the word and you'll now know why you have a black brother.

>>679265077
>>679270777
>>679272111
>>679272333
Confirmed 50%.

>>679265855
>>679267533
>>679268677
>>679270555
Confirmed 66.6%

I don't know guys, there's an awful lot of trips for 50%. Imma say 50%.

>>679272735
it's not exactly what the question is asking, illiterate.

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>>679272935
viddied the cuck

>>679273018
you picked a gold ball
asking:
"what is the chance that you will pick another gold ball?"
is the exact same thing as asking:
"what is the chance that the first ball came from the box with two gold balls?"
You're fucking stupid if you can't understand that.

>>679272111
The real question is what does this mean for humanity? A few observations:

The correct answer doesn't immediately rise to the top and the absurdities and illogical results get defeated.

In reality, the percentage of people on different sides of the fence is probably similar to any given presidential election.

There is no evolutionary selection for people that understand this simple problem.

>>679269798
No, because you're counting balls. There are two possibilities that have a chance of being gold: GG and GS.

>>679262758

I'd like to thank OP for providing the entertainment tonight. This is much better than fapping. Love it.

Sincerely,
A calculatorian

>>679273364
you picked a gold BALL
there are THREE gold balls

>>679273519

It doesn't matter. You're picking boxes first. There are two valid boxes. Once a valid box has been chosen at random of the two, it'll be half and half.

you have already picked a gold ball from the start. there's no initial choice, there's no possible scenarios before you got the gold ball, you have either box 1 or box 2. if you have box 1, you'll get gold next. if you have box 2, you'll get silver next. it's a 1/2 chance you fucking retards. i don't give a shit if you're a fucking mathematical bullshit universe engineer or something, it's a 1/2 chance

>>679262758
You fucking morons. Quantum mechanics has already answered this. Unless you know the velocity, the position even for you to be able to grab the ball in the first place is completely unknown.

>>679273263
"what is the chance that you will pick another gold ball?"
exact - not approximated in any way; precise.

>>679273691
No, because if the box you chose was the GS box, then there's a 50% chance that the first ball out of it would have been silver.
the fact that it WASN'T silver means it is more likely that the box was the GG box

>>679272448
>Hurr Durr i just say shit because i don't like it

Go back to fucking reddit you cesspool

>>679273867
Heisenberg principle! True.

>>679273879
you're too stupid to be having this conversation

>>679273826
Actually, weather or not you give a fuck about being a dumbass doesn't make you any more correct.

Regards,
God

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>>679273263
You're retarded
I'm in Statistics right now, there's this 'given' condition that the boxes you're choosing from already have at least one gold ball. Assuming it has at least one gold ball, what are the odds it has two? 50% isn't it...

This thread is ~50% retards

>>679274088
you're too stupid to not respond to.

>>679274122
exactly, because i couldn't possibly be more correct

>>679274122
*whether

-There is no God

>>679273826
there IS an initial choice, and according to the problem that initial choice resulted in a gold ball, which means it is more likely that you have selected the box with two gold balls than the mixed one. I don't care how much disregard for authority you have, you're still wrong.

>>679274253
You could if you said it was 2/3.

Yours Truly,
He-Man and the Masters of the Universe

>>679274360
How did it taste?

>>679274219
fight me in irl

>>679265325
4. You didn't pick Ball #2, then ball #1 in Box #2, but you could have ()

>>679274595
I make gloves, not sores.

>>679273867
Assuming the box needs to be within a millimeter of a certain position for you to pick it up,
you're fine as long as your certainty in velocity is less than 5 times h bar.
Pretty much, if you know the ball might be rolling like a ball does, you're solid.

>>679274401
there is no initial choice. you have a gold ball. there are 2 boxes with a gold ball. one of them has another gold ball. one of them has a silver ball. you'd think it would be a simple matter but apparently not. i have lots of regard for authority, but none for you people who choose to be ignorant. you can keep on being dumb, and i'll keep on being right

>>679274760
You make poop sex with male prostitutes is what you make

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is this the cuck thread?

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>>679262758
>once in for all.
>in

later on in the evening, during the silver ball, i was playing video games or something, and she didnt act like she was having a good time. i was like "bitch you aint no nerd? i coulda swore you was"

>>679273263
I am the first fifty percenter who understood the two thirdsers from this stupid post. You guys are basically all misinterpreting the question.

This is a question of state. What state are you in? Are you in the pre-1st pick state or the post-1st pick state? If you ask the probability question to the person who has not picked any balls, of course it is 2/3. If you ask it after your state has changed, (ie after picking the first ball) there can be only one answer... 1/2.

>>679274937
I'm done trying to teach you. Just fucking kill yourself.

>>679275130
ladies first, faggot

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50% Anybody who says otherwise is wrong. They can't read or are solving a different problem.

>>679268186
Only a fucking retard can't tell the weight difference between envelopes filled with pennies vs. nickels.

So literally half the people in this thread.

You fucking faggots are ruining my ability to fap. I hate you all.

>>679274953
Sounds like you've given that a lot of thought. I'd rather have a little shit on my dick than maggots and the smell of death, like you. (I'm calling you a necrophiliac, in case you didn't pick that up)

>>679275227
>3eyeballs
>creepy twink boy fuckdoll
>is human
lel
Tien isn't human and if he was, he wasn't even the strongest human in Dragon Ball, let alone Z.

>>679275091
it doesn't matter
you're looking at it like flipping a coin a bunch of times. If that was what we were dealing with, you'd be right. Previous flips doen't affect the outcome of future flips, that's gambler's fallacy.
But that's not what we're dealing with here. There ISN'T an equal chance that it could be either box once you're in the "picked" state. The fact that a gold ball was picked DOES have implications on the next pick because if you picked gold the first time, it is more likely that it came from the box with two golds. That is just simple probability. Three gold balls and two of them are in one box. If you picked gold then it's more likely that you're dealing with that box now.

>>679275196
clever

>>679262758
1/3x1 for first
add that to 1/3x1/2 for the g/s box to get 1/2

>>679263168

The graphic is misleading. Forget that the box with two silver balls exists. The rules tell you that you will always reach into a box that has at least 1 gold ball.

Now, you have 1:G/S and 2:G/G.

If you reach in and take a gold ball out of 1:G/S, you have 1:S and 2:G/G left over. Box 1:S has a 100% chance of Silver. Box 2:G/G has a 100% chance of Gold.

If you instead chose 2:G/G first, you are left with 2:G and 1:G/S.

Reaching into the same box (1:G), you have a 100% chance of getting a gold ball.

As the _only_ decision you can make determines which box you draw a gold ball from, that decision gives you a 50% probability of getting G/S and a 50% chance to get G/G. Since you _never_ change boxes once you draw from one, the probability never changes. It's the same chance from start to finish.

>>679268316
kek

I think we are debating an idea more than statistics.

There are people who can think of the problem without the 1st pick,"you have picked a gold ball"
And people who can't imagine this situation without having picked first, which in reality is what you'd have to go through before being at the stage of the problem.

What "we" 50% think is very computer-like:

>Is there a gold ball in the 1st box that I could've picked ? -> Yes

>Is there a gold ball in the 2nd box that I could've picked ? -> Yes

So I must have picked either the 1st box or the 2nd box

instead of picking a ball, pick a box which is essentially what you are doing.

So there's a 2/3 chance there will be a gold ball in it.

So, pick a ball. It's gold.

Now the numbers change. there's a 100% chance you picked a box with a gold ball in it.

So you picked one box or the other.
You can't change boxes so it's 50//50 you got the right box.

Next pick will either be gold or silver.

50%.

>>679275864
Jesus christ.

I literally concede.

I never thought I would.

You are right. If I consider that the chances that I picked the initial gold ball from the box with two gold balls is 2/3, then that's that.

>>679264274

Scenario 1 (50% chance): You take from the Gold-Gold box. You have 100% chance to get Gold again.

Scenario 2 (50% chance): You take from the Gold-Silver box. You have a 0% chance to get Gold on the second draw (as Silver is the only remaining ball.)

It's a 50/50. Where are you getting 40% with non-replacement? It's a binary choice. Drawing a gold ball from either box means nothing. It's _Either_ a gold or a silver. There are no other options, ergo it must be 50%/50%.

>>679276634
Samefag cont*

Anyways, we can forget about the 3rd box which is only misleading

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>>679265826
This explanation instantly converted me from 50% to 66%

Thank you anon, that is actually a very simple way to explain the issue

>>679276086
Nope, you don't know which of the two boxes you pulled from so you need to analyze it by looking at which possible balls remain, two golds and one silver, giving you 2/3 chance of pulling another gold ball.

>>679276634
>So I must have picked either the 1st box or the 2nd box
just because there are two possibilities doesn't make them equally likely. That's what you 50%ers can't wrap your head around.

>>679262758
5050 cause there are only 2 possible outcomes

>>679262758
I'd bet my money on 100% gold. I like those odds.

1/2 1/2

3/4 chance it's gold.
>the answer

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The problem doesn't state explicitly whether the balls you take are put back into the box or not.

It's 50% if they aren't put back and and 75% if they are put back.

>>679275871
more than you

Fucking easy 100% because my sniffer jew found the right box

>>679276731

>You are right. If I consider that the chances that I picked the initial gold ball from the box with two gold balls is 2/3, then that's that.


NO ! That is not the case ! In the problem here you dont consider a chance before the question's time.

What is the chance of flipping tails twice in a row ? 1/4
What is the chance of flipping tails twice in a row HAVING GOTTEN A TAIL ON YOUR FIRST FLIP ? ---> 50%

>>679276731
You have no idea how good this makes me feel.
Thank you for being an intelligent, open-minded person, anon.
You've restored a little of my faith in humanity.

It's 2/3 as you've got a higher chance of pulling the first gold ball out of the box with two gold balls in it.

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>>679277079
kek

>>679277133

Dont forget your fedora on you way to your new euphoric day my good sir / madam or xirxt-gendered human

>>679262758
The answer is that the gold and silva is minez now nigga, *pulls out the chopper (nigger slang for large gun) gimme dats nigga. Dis minez nigga honkies. It's a 100 pahcent my gold and silva now nigga.

>>679276907
He's right. I literally just converted from a 50%er like less than a minute ago and now I'm so convinced that this is right that I'm absolutely furious I ever got it wrong in the first place.

>>679276965
prove it to my face you little bish, are all of your responses cliche played out and standard?

>>679262758
2/3

>>679268130
the second pick has nothing to do with the first. its done. That's like saying you flipped a coin heads so the next flip is more likely to flip tails because there is only a 25% chance of flipping heads twice in a row. It is 50% and it will always be 50%

Fuck me how dumb some cunts are. You just pulled a gold, so your hand is in either the gold-gold box or in the gold-silver box, so A: you pull gold, B:you pull silver. 50%. Analyse my balls!

>>679262758
How goddamn hard is it to make an app to play this scenario????

>>679277421
yes it do tho, because there are two balls in each box and you are picking from that box again, the second choice is tied to the first choice.

>>679277421
no it's not like saying you flipped a coin blah blah blah
it's something completely different
There are 3 gold balls and 2 of them are in the same box. If the first pick is gold, it is more likely to have come from this box. What are you not understanding?

1000 people live in Village X and never go anywhere else
1000 other people live in village Y and go sometimes in Village X to buy meat.

You happen to be RIGHT NOW in village X ? What is your chance of being a Village X resident ?


50% !!!!!!

>>679277759
says the guy who is wrong

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>>679262758
it's 40%. With 1 missing, there are 5 balls left. 2 of which are gold. 2/5, 40%

fine example of amerifat education failing them.

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>>679278184

>>679276884

Okay, I would be able to agree to that if the whole choice was about the balls... but it's not. You are choosing between two boxes.

Initially there were 3 boxes. But, the S/S box is out. It cannot lead to drawing a gold ball.

Now, with the remaining two boxes, there is a 25% Silver, 75% Gold chance. Alas, this question doesn't care about that. It's not about the chances of drawing Silver. That chance doesn't matter, because it requires that you have drawn a gold ball.

Step 1: Random: G/G or G/S
>You drew a gold ball!

Step 2: Draw Again.
>If G/G, you drew a gold ball!
>If G/S, you drew a silver ball!

These are _only_ final outcomes.

While there is a 75% chance (at first draw) you will get a gold ball, there is a 50% chance that you drew it from the G/G box, and a 50% chance you drew it from the G/S box.

The instance where you reach in and get a Silver Ball _never_ happens in the microcosm of this problem. Likewise, you _never_ pick from the S/S box.

Looking at it that way, if you drew a silver ball, you simply restart. If you drew a gold ball, there's a 50% chance you have another gold ball in that box, and a 50% chance there's a gold ball in the other box.

>>679272503
No they don't you retard. Following that logic the probability of flipping 100 heads in a row is 50%. Which it isn't.

>>679278528
But there's a 2/3 chance you drew the gold ball from the G/G box

16.67% chance. 1/2 by 1/3

>>679278544
you dumb, nigga

>>679262758
2/3

>>679278528
>Step 2: Draw Again.
>>If G/G, you drew a gold ball!
>>If G/S, you drew a silver ball!
I'll say again: just because you are looking at two possible outcomes, that does not necessarily mean they are equally likely. This is where you simpletons are getting hung up. Because there are two boxes the gold ball could have come from, you are looking at it like a coin flip because that all your chicken brain can handle. YES once you have the gold ball picked, there are two possible outcomes, but one of them is more likely because the chance that the ball came from the GG box is greater

>>679278959

1,5/3*

>>679277875
that is implying that 50% of the time you pick box 2 (SG box) that you pull the silver instead. in the sense of probability you would be correct. However, were talking about the individual here, not the whole shabang of every person who has done this

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1/2

seeing one gold ball narrows it down to two boxes, coin flip odds

>>679278711

There is not a 2/3 chance. There is a 1/2 chance. The entire premise ignores the S/S box.

>>679279125
>that is implying that 50% of the time you pick box 2 (SG box) that you pull the silver instead
because that's true

>>679279232
But there are 3 gold balls, and 2 of them are in the G/G box, so there's a 2/3 chance

Haha real fecking funny, pick on the sop with no arms

>>679279232
because the problem states that the first ball picked is gold. So the SS box doesn't factor in

>>679279384
Why does the amount of gold balls matter without respect to the number of boxes?

>>679279223
why is it coin flip odds just because there are two choices? They are not equally likely just because there are two of them. You think like a child.

You fags sure like talking about balls.

>>679278711
>>679279075

My issue with this logic is simple.

The entire argument hinges on there being a chance that you picked the G/S box. Now, IF drawing Silver was a possibility, your logic is correct. However, any time you drew Silver, the problem would essentially be reset. As Silver is _not_ an option, you always have a 100% chance of a gold draw on the first pick.

There is no possibility of _not_ getting a gold ball, regardless of which of the two boxes you chose at first.

Since there is _no_ possibility of getting silver (meaning you will always draw gold first, regardless of which box you choose) this still leaves a 50% chance that your box has another gold ball.

It isn't about the initial choice's odds of being 1 gold or 2 gold. It's only about the final chance. There is no 2/3 chance, because you are only picking Box A or Box B.

>>679279627
Nice strawman, brah. Certainly two choices =/= 50/50, but in this case it does.

>>679279755
Why? Explain.

>>679275386
You sure it's not 2/3rds?

>>679279536
Because you're negating any possibilities involving choosing a silver first.
It negates all initial S/S choices, no initial G/G choices and half of initial G/S choices

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>>679278544
>following that logic the probability of flipping 100 heads in a row is 50%

>>679269097
That is completely not how probability works, dumbass. If you flip a coin, the chance you are going to get heads is 1/2 or 50%. If you flip that coin again, the chance you are going to get heads is still 1/2 or 50%. But if you were trying to find out the chance of you getting heads 3 times in a row, then you would do
(1/2) x (1/2) x (1/2) meaning that the chance of heads 3 times in a row is 1/8. THAT is how probability works

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>every single one of these threads ever

>>679279824
His strawman or why this problem is 50/50? His strawman is that two options = 50/50, which no one has argued. There could obviously be other factors that contribute to the outcome of two options (you flip a coin, but wind direction combined with other external forces, etc etc).

In the case of this problem, however, there is no room for random interaction. If you've drawn a golden ball, you have eliminated the box containing two silver balls. In this event, since you have drawn a golden ball, you are left with either drawing a golden or silver ball. This is because you are drawing from the same box. This is a 50/50.

>>679279727
that's a bingo

>>679279727
You're eliminating all S/S picks, but you're also eliminating half of all G/S picks, as half the time you'll choose silver first

>>679280212
but you guys literally are making that argument
You are saying that because the next ball can be either silver or gold, there is an equal chance of both (50/50). You have to say more than that

You 2/3 fags !


Imagine the sme problem with "what is the chance that you picked a gold ball while HAVING PICKED A GOLD BALL ?

Is it still fucking 2/3 ?

No, it's 100% even if the odds of picking a gold ball in the first place is not 100%

We dont care about earlier, in the existing problem, you have a golden ball in hand, where does it come from ? well either the G/S or the G/G, equally since the problem doesnt exist BEFORE you have a gold ball in hand

>>679280234
We just say 50%

>>679280404
Troll? Even if it were 99% of the time that you chose silver first, it would not affect this scenario. You've drawn a golden ball first. End of story.

>>679265093
this guy gets it.
50%? wtf are you talking about?

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>>679266602
This is exactly it. The same method can be used to explain other oddities like the Monty Hall problem. The answer is 2/3.