>>677785298
if the chance to get a gold ball at first pick is 100% then it will be 50/50 chance obviously

66%

>>677785435
the fuck? why?

>>677785298
50%

bring on the hand jobs, OP

>>677785435
this

ok it's 33% lmao

>>677785435
The first gold ball is chosen at random

40%

about tree fiddy

>>677785435
>>677785622
it's 50% op now make good with the goat sacrificing

>>677785622
This. Your hand is either in the middle box and the next ball will certainly be silver, or the left box and certainly gold.
If the question was "if" you pull a gold first then it would change, but your question says you have, so that probability is resolved.

33% 1 in 3

Trick question, the gold balls are actually blue.
Zero percent.

2/3 chance

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>>677785298
2/3 you retards. Don't you know Bertrand's box paradox?

2/3
>inb4 lengthy debate with 50% idiots why they think they are right until after long time someone provides a link that explains why its 2/3

>>677785522

if you pick a gold ball initially the silver only box becomes irrelevant.

so its either box a (now with a 100% chance of a gold ball)

or box b (0% chance of a gold ball, as you've already taken that gold ball)

>>677786186
As someone who majored in Statistics, never heard of Bertrand's box paradox before.

Answer is clearly 2/3 though.

>>677786281
>a classic paradox of elementary probability theory.
>elementary

Anons are idiots.

>>677785435
>>677785622
>>677785638
>>677786093
>>677786378
These

If you picked a gold ball, that makes the "2 silver" box irrelevant.

Your hand is either in the "1 gold 1 silver" box, or the "2 gold" box.

So, 50/50.

>>677785837
But even if it's at random it states you get a golden ball. The only two scenarios now are:

You get a gold ball
You get a silver ball.

50/50.

The silver+silver box is ignored.

This is what everyone is thinking. But imo, it's more probable that you get a gold ball from the gold+gold box, than the gold+silver one.

3/6 are gold balls.

So you have 2/6 chances of picking the first box's gold ball, and 1/6 chances of picking the second box's gold ball.

I'd say 66% chances of getting another gold ball.

>>677785522
Well if it says that you have already picked a box and you already pulled a gold ball out then you have already started the probability game. You are either in the middle box where the next pick is a silver ball or you are in the left box where the next pick is a gold ball. One choice is gold, one is silver so 50/50. This is only if there is a 100% chance to pick a gold ball first.

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>>677786281

wrong

You pick a gold ball
There are 3 balls left for your second pick
1 is silver
2 are gold
There is a 2/3 chance of getting a gold ball

Simple

>>677785298
Monty Hall retread with the same careful wording to make the 'mathematical' answer and the 'logical' answer seem different to create debate.

Nigger tier thread detected.

>>677786616
Just because there are two poasible outcomes doesnt mean its 50%. The question is how likely one outcome is.

If i slap your face with a pillow you either live or die right? So pillow hits are 50% lethal?

>>677786649
No. You have to take the next ball out of the same box you took the first one out of.

You have already chosen the box, so now it's a 50/50 chance between the 2 boxes.

The amount of gold vs silver, is irrelevant.

>>677786826
You suck

>>677786779
Ebin troll :>)

>>677785298
2/3 because you only had one choice at the start.

>>677786826
There's only one ball left in the box, which is either a gold or silver ball - it's 50/50

The contents of the silver/silver box are irrelevant. We know we picked a box with at least one gold. The silver/silver box is no longer a probability, it's a certainty.

>>677786826
you need to pick the second ball from the same box as the first...

>>677786955
No. Because you don't know which box you chose. And considering the fact that you got a gold ball, it's twice as likely you chose the box with 2 gold balls, than the one with only one.


That probability adds up to the second "stage" of the puzzle.

If one box had 10 gold balls, and the other one only one, and you choose one box at random, and get a gold ball, which box would you say you got?

>>677786955
We arent determining the probability of which box is being taken out of, we're determining the chance of getting another gold ball. If we alresdy picked one, 2/3 remaining possible balls are gold.

>>677787085
Again, we arent determining the probability of which box it is.

>>677786921
There's a difference between 2 "possible" outcomes and 2 "EQUALLY" possible outcomes.

There's barely a chance at all you kill me with a pillow

There's exactly 2 boxes that your hand can be in.

From 2 boxes, you've chosen one at random. It's 50/50 which one you've chosen.

Fucking idiot.

>>677787169
Amd since you dont know if its box 1 or 2 there are 3 possible outcomes

Gold ball 1
Gold ball 2
Silver ball

>>677786616
2/3 because there are two possible outcomes that put you in the box of 2 gold balls where the other remaining ball is gold and 1 possibility that the remaining ball is silver. It matters which gold ball you draw from the box of 2 and it could either of them

Protip: everyone saying 50/50 is a troll

>>677787079
Sorry, I meant 1/3.

>>677785298
The answer of 2/3 is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. Using the obvious dud box to increase the probability makes it known that statistical analysis really panders to cheating out people who are bad at math.

>>677787344
There are only two, dummy. Think about it.

>>677787323
But you dont just choose between the boxes at random. U choose a box, then a ball. Then u look at the ball and see if its gold or not.

Imagine u have 1 million balls per box. In box 1 you have 1 million gold balls, in box two 1 gold ball. Now u pick a ball and its golden. U think its a 50% chance that ball came from the second box?

everyone who says other than 50/50 is just plain stupid.

>>677787527
>resorting to ad hominem because you csnt back up your claim
:^)

>>677786281
gotta bait.

>>677786281
I'll do it!

The following reasoning appears to give a probability of 1⁄2:
>Originally, all three boxes were equally likely to be chosen.

>The chosen box cannot be box SS.

>So it must be box GG or GS.

>The two remaining possibilities are equally likely. So the probability that the box is GG, and the other coin is also gold, is 1⁄2.
The flaw is in the last step. While those two cases were originally equally likely, the fact that you are certain to find a gold coin if you had chosen the GG box, but are only 50% sure of finding a gold coin if you had chosen the GS box, means they are no longer equally likely given that you have found a gold coin.

[...]

The correct answer of 2⁄3 can also be obtained as follows:'

>Originally, all six coins were equally likely to be chosen.

>The chosen coin cannot be from drawer S of box GS, or from either drawer of box SS.

>So it must come from the G drawer of box GS, or either drawer of box GG.

>The three remaining possibilities are equally likely, so the probability that the drawer is from box GG is 2⁄3.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

See? basic fucking math.

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>>677787507
Just imagine if one box had a million balls, and the other one only one. Really you think the chance of getting a gold ball from the one with only one is the same?

>>677787626
your an ad hominem m8

>>677785298
You pick one box from three and only one will give you two gold balls so it's 1/3

And if we have two green balls in our hand, we have Kermit's undivided attention.

its 50/50 because you could have the box with 2 gold balls or the box with 1 gold and 1 silver ball

Bertrands box paradox
Please google

The reason it's 2/3 is because picking randomly will result in the 2 gold box being selected as the gold coin provider more often.

If you do 100 draws 50 of them will be gold coins. There's a 2 gold box so it will provide more of those 50 occasions, hence the higher probability you will have selected that box.

Understand?

>>677788021
this tbh

>>677787344
I don't know if you're trolling but holy fuck.

we're assuming we've already pulled a gold ball, which means we've already made the "correct" decision that can lead us to at least one ball, and then also pulled that ball. From there, it's 50/50 whether you chose the more correct box.

If it was "what are my odds of reaching into a random box and pullling two gold balls" the chance would be 1/3, but we've already done most of the work in the first question

>>677787689
>>>677786281
>gotta bait.
>>>677786281
>I'll do it!
>The following reasoning appears to give a probability of 1⁄2:
>>Originally, all three boxes were equally likely to be chosen.
>>The chosen box cannot be box SS.
>>So it must be box GG or GS.
>>The two remaining possibilities are equally likely. So the probability that the box is GG, and the other coin is also gold, is 1⁄2.
>The flaw is in the last step. While those two cases were originally equally likely, the fact that you are certain to find a gold coin if you had chosen the GG box, but are only 50% sure of finding a gold coin if you had chosen the GS box, means they are no longer equally likely given that you have found a gold coin.
>[...]
>The correct answer of 2⁄3 can also be obtained as follows:'
>>Originally, all six balls were equally likely to be chosen.
>>The chosen ball cannot be from S of box GS, or from either ball of box SS.
>>So it must come from the G of box GS, or either G of box GG.
>>The three remaining possibilities are equally likely, so the probability that the drawer is from box GG is 2⁄3.

>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

Ftfy with balls instead of coins

>>677785298
2/3 chance

Everyone needs to stop thinking as box a and b as separate boxes

Box c is irrelevant

In box a and b there are 3 gold 1 silver

If he takes 1 gold there are 2 gold 1 silver making it a 2/3 or a 66% chance

>>677788155
Nigga you dumb somebody already proved this is correct

>>677788021
I don't think the odds are very good of reaching into a box with gold balls and pulling gold coins.

>>677788210
You didnt get the problem right. Read it again. Think very carefully about what is actually happening.

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also it doesnt fucking matter WHICH gold ball we pull, as long as the color is gold.
If we already have a gold in hand there are TWO possible outcomes. Either gold, or not gold.
It doesnt matter what ball is in the other box because we're not looking at what the possibility is of drawing a given ball, only the color

>>677785298
33.3333333333333%

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> The cucks who think the 2 silver balls box matters

>>677788287
Correction it is 50/50

If you take gold ball out of box a or box b it's a 50% chance the ball is silver or gold as there is only 2 outcomes

>>677788568
But you're twice as likely to have chosen A to begin with

>>677788287
That's just a coincidence. The probability that you choose box A is higher if you always get a gold ball first.

The answer is 2/3 indeed, but the logic is not correct. If you had 100 gold balls in one box, and 1 gold ball in the other, the chances you get another gold ball would not be 101/200.

It's 100 times more probable that you chose box A in the first place, so actually the chance is close to 99/100.

>>677788666
And this is what all the 50% fags dont get, because they didnt read and ubderstand the problem properly. Trips dubs trips confirm

>>677788444
we're assuming that we already have a gold ball in hand, and reaching into the same damn box.
It doesnt matter WHICH gold ball we have in had, just that we want another. The chances that we picked the box with two gold balls is only 1/3, but we obviously picked a box with one, so there are two outcomes. It doesnt matter WHICH ball, as long as it is gold.
We either picked GG or GS, so 50/50. Because they are seperate boxes, we will either pull a G or a S. Dont fucking number the balls like a shitty autist.
if it was starting from the beginning, it would be different. But practically, it's gonna be 50/50

>>677788666
Who cares? That's not part of the problem

Guys I think it is 50/50. I believe it is NOT a repeat to the Monty Hall problem. In the Monty Hall you get to choose the first door and then a door gets revealed that does not have the prize. You then get the option of switching doors. Staying with the original door gives a probability of 1/3 because it was a 1/3 chance of choosing the original door being the prize. The ability to switch is what increases the probability to 2/3 because switching from the two empty doors makes you switch to the prize door.

In this gold ball game you do not get to choose the first box, you just are assuming the first box you choose gave you a gold ball. An empty box does not get revealed here like in Monty but you can see that there is one box with no gold balls. Here you are NOT allowed to switch boxes and must take the second ball from the original box. You also aren't allowed to start with the all silver box because the problem already says you chose a gold ball. So since there is no switching boxes you can't increase your probability by switching from the middle box to the all gold box like you can in the Monty Hall problem. Since you can't switch boxes the answer must be 50/50.

lol this is great

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>>677788888

>>677788888
retard quints

>>677788888
amazing

>>677788888
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

>>677785298
Approx 40%

>>677788888
KYS FAGGOT, THIS COULD HAVE BEEN A DICK CUT OFF

>>677788888
checked faggot

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>>677788888
fuck you fam

>>677788888
hmmmmmmmm

>>677788888
/thread

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>>677788888
checked

>>677788888
THE FUCKENING

>>677788888
M8, if not u one guy could cut off his D, thanks to you thought that will not be happening

>>677789027
tru lmao

Roll>>677788886
Checked.

>>677788888
what a waste of quints

>>677788888
Noice

>>677788888
noic faggit

>>677788888
You fucking faggot, took a self-mutilation away from us

>>677788888
QUINNNNTS

Lmao
The answer is 1/3.
We start off with 2/3 chance that a box you pick would contain at least one gold ball. Now, we have a 1/3 chance that you picked a box with 2 gold balls.

(2/3)(1/3)= 2/6 = 1/3

>>677788946
The problem is that you dont have in mind how you got to the point of having a gold ball in hand. You are assuming the wrong things.

>>677788888
kill yourself

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>>677788888

trips and quints

>>677788888
YOU ARE A WASTE OF VERY GOOD QUINTS

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Are there people here who honestly believe it's 50/50?

>>677788888
You just stopped a man from chopping off his peen I hope ur happy

>>677785298
50/50

>>677789271
I like a good deed every once in a while. Self mutilation is haram

>>677787555
>>677788444
>>677788666
>>677788888

Stupid 50/50 retards, trips and even quints are proving you wrong. It's happening. /thread

>>677788444
>>677788666
>>677788888
You really think those numbers would lie?
2/3
A link to the 19th century proof has already been given in here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

FOR ALL THE 50% RETARDS

>>677785298
1/2 obviously. Basically you can skip all gibberish and start reading from that after gold ball is taken and you know you've got either box1 or box2 (as in picture).

>>677789167
you're only going to pick either box 50% of the time. You're assuming that im not gonna punch you in your nerd dick

>>677788888
ayy lmao

>>677788946
Not 1/3 chance, 1/2. Its impossible to have taken the gold ball from a box with 2 silver balls you fuck.

>>677789565
Probability of gold ball
Not probably of box 1 or 2
Fuckwit

>>677785298
66.666`%

>>677789498
That's a paradox.
Para- next to or contrary.
Dox- documents
Contrary document. Why would I trust that?

2/6 because you already picked out 1 gold one

>>677789613
yes at first u pick either box with same properbility. But then u have to disregard the ss box entirely and the gs box 50% of the time. But every pick of the gg box stays valid. The same logic that makes u get why the silver silver box diesbt matter can lead you the conclusion why its 2/3

>>677789684

Exactly - it eliminates the 2 silver ball box which leaves you with 2 gold balls and 1 silver one, thats not 1/2.

> The boxes are there to fuck with you.

tl;dr 66.66666666666666% its gold

>>677788888
The problem says you pick one golden ball first whatever happens.
Box C is irrelevant to the problem, so let's just remove it.
Since you'll pick one golden ball first, let's just remove these from the two remaining boxes. They are not part of the problem because you know you ARE going to pick them.
You now have one box with one silver ball, and one box with one golden ball. Which box will you choose ? It's 50/50

2/3 yesterday post

Gold is twice as dense as silver, and since they're the same size twice as heavy.
So you just feel for two balls the same weight, and you can't pull out a silver one since you're a werewolf, so the odds are 100%

>>677777777

>>677790258
While this seems intuitive it is incorrect mathematics. Thats the entire point of the 'paradox'. Did you even google the paradox where bayes formula was used to solve it?

>>677790258
You still dont get it. Just read the thread again and maybe you will see your error. Or read the links ppl posted

It's 50/50 cause the question states what's the probability that the next ball from the same box will be gold, the question isn't what's the chance of getting two gold balls. The question is what is the chance of getting a second gold ball in the same box as a box where one gold ball is found. And that probability is 50/50

>>677790573
I did, it's a load of faggot bullshit.

Actually this depends on whether we are taking into consideration the first pick at all

If we are, its more likely to be the box with two gold balls (in box 1 there is a 100% chance of picking gold on the first pick, while only 50% in box 2 therefore box 1 is more likely to be the box the chosen in the initial pick)

If we arent and we are pretending the first pick never happened at all but we have this mysterious gold ball out of nowhere and we ignore half the fucking problem then its 50/50. This answer relies on some philosophical jumping through hoops

>>677790528
almost right
all else being equal the 2 gold box would have a greater gravitational pull on your hand
cant b 50/50

Lets list this out.

You got a gold ball, so you obviously have either box one or two.

So lets list these balls as A, B, C, and D. A-C are gold, D is silver. You only know your first ball was an A, B, or C ball.

If your first ball was A, 2nd is B
If your first ball was B, 2nd is A
If your first ball was C, 2nd is D: silver.

2/3 chance faggots.

>>677785298
First 9 to get it wrong get their dicks sucked by me

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>>677789848
>Bertrand's box paradox
no handjob nor goat for me

>>677788888
WITNESSED!

2/3 is correct because math

Its a trick question because OP didnt specify if the first gold ball is forced or not.
The answer is either 50% or 66% depending on stuff that we havent been told about the problem.

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>>677788888
Congrats on the greatest achievement of your life, anon.

It's all downhill from here.

>>677789353
Kreygasm

>>677786911
>implying math and logic are two separate things

>>677791667
Please post a trigger warning before you talk about forced balls

>>677785939
>>677785622
>>677785435

OP probably just made you do his math homework.

Good job OP.

>>677791667
Nigger. It is more likely to have chosen a gold ball from the box with two of them.

>>677785298
Actuarial fag here.
Probability is my game.
It's 50%, let me explain why.
Once you draw that gold ball not only is the box with 2 silver balls out of the equation, but any probability that you chose a box with at least one gold ball is out as well.
You now know that you either will draw another gold ball or a silver one, both with equal odds, since only 2 boxes are a possibility.
To make this a more difficult question, you might ask what the probability is that someone would pick 2 gold balls.

>>677788888

I have seen everything now. Time to become an hero. Good-bye, cruel world.

33.3333333333%