Bayesian is the way?
>>8187193
Answer cannot be A because if the answer were A then it would also be D which is a contradiction. With only B and C there is no way for it to be 60% this B is the correct answer
Ill-defined problem, the space you are trying to define a probablity on is non-measurable.
>>8187200
But how can be 50% chance to answer randomly right if there are 4 answers, and only b) is right?
1- There is 25% chance to answer randomly right a 4 question test
2- In this case there are 2 "correct" answers, so 50%
3- If 50% is correct, there is only 25% to answer this question right at random
4- Go to 1
>>8187193
It's self-referential, so you'll end up with a paradox of sorts. You can easily see this, assume that a.) is the right answer, then 2/4 of the answers are correct, which means that b.) is the correct answer, but if b.) is the correct answer then you'll have a 1/4 chance of picking it at random, so a.) is the correct answer.... So you might be tempted to say that C must be the correct answer, but you'd be wrong since if C was the correct answer then there would be a 1/4 chance of picking C at random, which then leads us back to the above problem.
What this shows is that there is no answer that isn't contradictory.
Assume the answer is 25%. which is a 1/4 chance to get the answer correct, but notice that 25% appears twice, so this is 50%. But wait, we assumed the answer was 25% and not 50% so contradiction.
Assume the answer is 50%. This means there is a 2/4 chance you'll get the answer but there is actually a 1/4 chance, which is a contradiction. Answer is not 50%.
Assume the answer is 60%, but there is a 25% chance you'll get 60% which is a contradiction.
i thought this was a frequentist vs bayesian inference thread, how naive of me
>>8187193
No answer
>>8187193
Why not quickly write a script that picks 1,000,000 answers at random and compare the results?
>>8187193
These stupid fucking threads need to be banned from this board
>>8187443
That decides nothing, it's just white noise.
0%
>>8187208
Choices A and D were eliminated. It is now a question with 2 answer choices. No where does it state you have to consider all choices when picking an answer at random.
BAYE'S IS BAE
