What is the probability that Trump will win the presidency by a landslide?
Would you use Baynesian or Frequentist statistics?
not enough data
>>8067186
>win the presidency by a landslide?
Historically, 49% of U.S. Presidential elections have been won by a man that did not receive a majority of the popular vote.
Taft was the first to break 60%.
Lindon Johnson has the all-time record of 63%.
Unless you count the electoral college, no-one has ever won a landslide in the POTUS election.
And the Donald *may* actually have a number of "faithless electors".
Besides, Hillary is the favorite to win so far.
0
Hillary will win over 320 Electoral Votes. So Trump will be lucky to replicate Romney's run in '12
-1/12
>>8067209
Also, no president has ever not been a Mayor, Senator, congressmen prior.
>>8067209
>Unless you count the electoral college
I believe OP is most likely asking about electoral college, not popular vote. The presidential race is not a popular vote contest.
>Historically, 49% of U.S. Presidential elections have been won by a man that did not receive a majority of the popular vote.
Misleading statement. Only 4 men became president after being runner-up in the popular vote.
>And the Donald *may* actually have a number of "faithless electors".
True, but could be said about any candidate.
>Besides, Hillary is the favorite to win so far.
Lots can happen in 6 months. Swing states are all in play.
https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2345
>>8067186
Vegas currently has Hillary at 1/3 and Trump at 5/2, so she's heavily favored. However I would say that a Trump bet right now has a fairly high EV and a Hillary bet has a low EV since the numbers are showing a much closer electoral race than those odds seem to imply.
To answer your question - winning by a landslide is an extremely unlikely possibility for Trump. If he wins it will be by an slim electoral margin, having won a few key swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
>>8068605
what were George Washington and Dwight Eisenhower?
>>8067186
who here
>>>/feelthebern/
>>8067186
Not enough data. Actually there are much more democrates than republicans in the USA, but some of people considering themselves as republicans just have not been giving a shit a lot about the elections all the time and voted just if they had some free time, not permanently. Trump has approximately 45%, but to make him win the elections each republican has to vote for him without any exceptions, each of them has to get up his ass and go and vote - they will get not by quality, but by quantity. So then Trump will have a real chance, but for now he doesn't have chances to win the elections.
>>8069007
not me because I'm not a faggot socialist freeloader welfare queen who thinks he's entitled to shit for free
Now that being said I don't care much for Trump either beyond the fact that he's tearing down the tyranny of political correctness. That part is fucking glorious.
>>8069295
>Sanders
>Socialist
That's literally the first thing I check when people discuss him. The guy has nothing to do with it, he just uses to words to try to rally youngins that dont know what it means beyond "free healthcare" and "free college". If they actually saw their consumeristic world crumble between them, they would die. That said, Bernie is the better candidate between the three to make America on par with Eastern Europe (dream small).
But on the subject of probability, no one can tell this early. Check historical predictions and they're all over the place. Anything can happen from now till November. If the US gets bombed/"terrorised", Trump's got it in the bag. If not, depends how well they shill their lies.
>>8068605
Those things are true untill they aren't.
No Democratic nominee won his party's nomination without Kansas. Untill this year when Bernie did win Kansas.
xkcd has a nice comic on this
>>8069007
>only candidate even remotely concerned with personal liberty and the right to privacy
>only candidate who would even consider dismantling the NSA and preventing similar abuses of power in the future
Yeah, I'm feelin' the Bern.
>Hilary
I'll watch the world burn.
>Bern
I'll watch the system bern.
>Trump
A great wall for a great nation.
>>>/pol/ is for political discussion.
