>Odds of the 2008 financial crisis happening was 1 in 1.309e+135 years (or 1309000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 years)
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1103/1103.5672.pdf
If scientists can't even predict the probability when a recession will happen, could they be grossly underestimating the probability of intelligent Extra terrestrial life forms existing in our galaxy that have already achieved FTL travel?
>>8013405
>economics
>scientist
Pick one
>>8013405
>If scientists can't even predict the probability when a recession will happen
This doesn't follow from your link in two ways:
>1.) They clearly had predicted it, and predicted such movements were incredibly unlikely to happen.
>2.) It isn't talking about the the 2008 crash but a particular model a hedge fund was using.
That said, I doubt they developed their models to include the wider malaise that hit during 2008.
>could they be grossly underestimating the probability of intelligent Extra terrestrial life forms existing
There are no predictions like that. And muh Drake equation doesn't count, it's terrible and doesn't predict shit.
nothing can crash Faster Than Lehmann
>>8013405
>Goldmans and their Ilk are simply not competent at their job.
Moron academics
>>8013421
still get paid 10 times more than """"real"""" scientists
>>8013432
that was good
>>8013438
so?
>>8013438
real question here is do they get paid more than mathematicians starting wage of 300k.
>>8013443
Mathematicians earning 300k normally work in banks and hedge funds, and these are the same guys coming up with models that say there is only a 1 in 1.309e135 chance of the stock market crashing
>>8013405
I'm pretty sure that the data they were using was only decades old.
>>8013405
>a 7-sigma event is to be expected every 7.76e+11 days – the number of zero digits is so large that Excel now reports the number of days using scientific notation
The authors don't seem to be very intelligent people.
>>8013488
nah they come up with those models just so that regulatory bodies/the government will leave them alone
the ones coming up with option pricing and volatility arbitrage don't give a shit
>>8013405
These aren't "scientists" you fucking retard
Dowd and Woods: Centre for Risk and Insurance Stud
ies, Nottingham University Business School,
Jubilee Campus, Nottingham NG8 1BB, UK. Cotter: Cen
tre for Financial Markets, School of Business,
University College Dublin, Carysfort Avenue, Blackr
ock, Co. Dublin, Ireland. Humphrey: School of
Accounting and Finance, University of Manchester, C
rawford House, Oxford Road, Manchester M13
9PL, UK. Corresponding author: Kevin.Dowd@nottingha
m.ac.uk.
Protip: Not everyone who uploads a paper to arxiv knows what they're talking about
>odds of the financial crisis happening
you are acting like it was all probability based. It was due to a housing market built on awful, awful home loans which originally stemmed from the greed of big banks. Greed as a motivator makes something way more likely to happen. did you even watch The Big Short?
>>8013405
We don't know the probability of life beginning because it only happened once as far as we know. The planets out there much like our own could very well all be devoid of life. Until we come up with evidence that life started a second time, either on our planet or somewhere else there IS NO ODDS and anyone who tells you otherwise is leading you on.
