If you flip a coin 3 times and it lands on tails each time, is the chance of getting tails again 50% or 6.25%?
>>7688709
50%
>>7688709
It's a 50/50 chance, so you average 50 and 6.25 to get 28.125.
>>7688709
What if the previous owner of the coin flipped it tails 100 times in a row? Would you expect the chances of flipping it tails again would be incredibly low? Of course not, which is why starting the probability count when you flipped it 3 times ago is ridiculous. It's always heads or tails is always 1/1
>>7690021
Without flipping it that would be a 6.25% chance to get trips. After flipping it twice already, regardless of the outcome, you still have a 50% chance of getting tails. For example if you flipped a coin ten times and got heads every time then the next time you flip it you will still have one of two outcomes meaning a 50% chance.
>babby's first bayesian updating
If you have a set of all 16 coin flip possibilities and you randomly pick one of the possibilities and look at three of the coins at random and see they're all tails, what is the probability that the last one is tails?
>>7688709
In the perspective of the universe there is nothing special about three tails in a row compared to all the other combinations, each flip is 50/50,
It is a queastion about conditional propability. Let A be "4 tails" and B be "the first three are tails". Then P(A|B)=((1/2)^4)/((1/2)^3)=1/2.
You also have a prior probability of the coin being fair, which will be reduced slightly by the three tails in a row, in turn increasing the probability of another tail above 50%
>>7690255
Not if the prior is 1
>>7690272
OP never stated the coin was fair, so you can't be 100% certain.
>>7688709
The chance of "I'm going to get all tails in a row" is 6%.
The chance of "I'm going to get a tails next" is 50%.
