It's 33% right?
yes 1/3rd chance
It's 25% of 33%, so 16.66% chance both are crits.
>>29314211
25 percent i think, then again i am clinically retarded
>>29314211
2 hits.
1 is definitely crit. this is already decided.
1 hit remaining.
50% chance it is crit.
>50%
>>29314263
lol some dummy always takes the bait
>>29314211
twice.
At least one is a crit.
so its 50 percent that the second one is.
50 percent chance their both hits, as the first one is guaranteed.
>>29314278
is this seriously a meme? it's a weak-ass meme.
>>29314278
Show up with an answer or get out kiddo
Depends on the implementation.
>>29314303
>>29314263
>>29314288
learn to conditional probability
It's 0. It can only be 0.
>50% of shots are crits
>at least one of every two shots is a crit.
>therefore every two shots is pre-determined one crit one non-crit
It's 50%
If one of the hits is a crit, we can ignore it - it's literally always a fucking crit so we don't have to work that out. All that matters is the 1 hit that's left, which is a 50/50. It's 50%.
There's only 4 possible permutations. 00 01 10 11
25% no crit
50% 1 crit
25% 2 crit
However... with the wording of the question 50% is the correct answer.
A)First shot is a crit, second shot is a hit
B)First shot is a hit, second shot is a crit
C)Both shots are crits.
3 possible scenarios with 1 favorable outcome which is C, therefor P(C) = 1/3 = 33%
>>29314418
learn to english language
this is not conditional
since one is decided, the other one is not contingent.
it would be conditional if it was worded like this:
"you get to hit an enemy twice. The chances of a crit are 50%. If one of the hits is a crit, what are the chances that the other one is also?"
the "if" is what makes it conditional, dipshit. Otherwise, it's just a reading comprehension problem.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=go3xtDdsNQM
Original Sample Space
Crit, Crit
Crit, Not
Not, Crit
Not, Not
New Sample Space
Crit, Crit
Crit, Not
Not, Crit
So it's 1/3
C = crit, N = non-crit
Four possible combinations with equal probability
>NN, CN, NC, CC
1/4 or 25% chance for each, like flipping a coin twice
Solution must contain at least one crit so we eliminate NN
Remaining solutions are still equally likely
>CN, NC, CC
1/3 or 33% probability each
>>29314457
One shot is always guaranteed to be a crit, there are only 3 possible scenarios, the no crit scenario on both shots is none existant. see >>29314476
we have 4 possible outcomes at first:
crit + crit
crit + no crit
no crit + crit
no crit + no crit
we know the last scenario is false bc at least one must crit. this leaves us with 3 chances. 1 out of 3 of those is double crit. so that is 1/3rd chance or 33% chance to crit. thanks for your time plebs.
>>29314303
my answer fag
>>29314518
>fail to provide answer before it is actually explained 3 times
>say exactly what was said on those 3 times and call it ur answer
kek, ok "pleb"
>>29314555
well i was the first post in this thread. and i wasn't keeping up with it. you win? dumbass
>>29314485
>since one is decided
Neither one is decided.
>reading comprehension problem
>>29314211
Can't be determined from the information provided. If the two hits are independent (which is not mentioned in the pic), then the probability is indeed 1/3.
>>29314485
If one crit is guaranteed than this answer is correct
>>29314432
In your situation there are two equally likely possibilities
crit-crit, crit-no crit
that's a crit rate of 75%, not 50%. The problem says the crit rate is 50% and doesn't say it's conditionally 50%, it says it's just 50%. So either you're wrong and it's 1/3 or you're wrong and it's 0, but it's definitely not 1/2.
>>29314597
>at least one of the hits is a crit
They should have worded it as a first hit guaranteed crit.
>>29314612
>If one crit is guaranteed than this answer is correct
No it's not, you can guarantee a crit by giving the final hit a guaranteed crit if the previous roll failed, in which case it is indeed conditional.
>crit rate
OP doesn't mention the crit rate at all.
>>29314652
>They should have changed the wording to make my solution right
I pity anyone you ever write code for.
>>29314597
>at least one is a crit
one possibility has collapsed. any instance of 2 50% shots where one 50% shot is already over and has been decided leaves one remaining 50% shot.
>>29314675
>Implying someone who can't do middleschool problability is going to be coding for anyone
>>29314658
if you guarantee a crit on the second shot your probability is 25% (crit - crit, crit - no crit, no crit - crit x2) Still not 50%
>op doesn't mention crit rate at all
>"Assuming a 50% crit chance"
>op doesn't mention crit rate at all
any motherfucker still here that thinks this isn't 1/3 just kys
There are four outcomes with equally likely probabilities
crit and then crit
crit and then no crit
no crit and then crit
no crit and then no crit
out of all of these equally likely outcomes, the first 3 feature one or more crits. Those are the only ones that need to be focused on.
And the question is asking that out of these three outcomes, how many are both crits
One out of the three are both crits. 1/3
All that's important about the crit rate is that all the above mentioned outcomes are equally likely. We are not in the middle of a trial and asking what the next hit probability is. The question has nothing to do with conditional probability or anything like that. You are making it more complicated than it needs to be.
>>29314597
You are actually retarded
Simple explanation for dummies on why it's not 50%.
>The first hit is a crit. What are the odds the second one is a crit?
Answer: 50%.
Now, notice how this is not what the original problem is asking. Read it again until you understand the difference.
>>29314597
You are really fucking stupid buddy
stop putting up ambiguously worded problems to fish for replies.
Both interpretations are equally correct.
>>29315261
>Now, notice how this is not what the original problem is asking.
it is tho.
>>29315006
>crit and then crit
>crit and then no crit
>no crit and then crit
>no crit and then no crit
the third and the second are one and the same
>>29315363
This is what your financial overlords want you to think.
The question is worded perfectly. The odds are 33%. Free yourself from stupidity.
>>29315383
It is not. Are you being willfully obtuse? The original problem states that the first OR second hit is a crit.
Perhaps I'm reading the problem wrong, but it says at least one of the hits is a crit, right? If one of the hits is always a crit, wouldn't that just make it a 50% chance of both being a crit, since the two possible options are
[crit]+[not crit]
or
[crit]+[crit]?
>>29315440
It say the number of crits is greater than or equal to 1.
That means that HIT / NO HIT must be the same as NO HIT / HIT
>>29315440
it doesn't explicitly state that. it says "at least one." That's open to interpretation. It doesn't make it clear whether or not we know which one it is.
>>29314211
>50% crit chance
wow thats fuckin OP someone pls nerf
>>29315424
No.
The probability of both hitting only depends on the one that does not hit, because you know that one of the two hits.
And the probability of the uncertain one is 50%.
>>29314211
>assuming a 50% crit chance what are the chance it's going to be crit
lol 50%
Just so people know. There is no right or wrong answer. The problem is worded incorrectly rendering it unsolvable. Every single time someone posts some shit math problem or probability thing, it's always worded in a fucked up way. The true answer is that the problem is unsolvable--doesn't matter if there is a right or wrong answer.
>>29315567
That's the fucking point you mouthbreathing retard.
OP problem: hit 1 or hit 2 is a crit. We dunno which.
It's 100% clear and perfectly defined. All you morons who complain it's ambiguous are too stupid to live and should kys. This is middle school level.
>>29314211
Its 50% you fucking retards
one hit is already a crit, so 50%
>>29315567
There's still only a 50% chance holy fuck it's a trick question because it literally tells you the answer
>>29314237
>>29314236
>>29314211
>>29314251
Faggots can't into goat door math.
>>29314288
This
>>29315530
It has been explained multiple times already. Read the thread for why it's 33%.
it doesnt matter if the crit is first or last because he didnt say so.
so the first or second hit is either a crit or not a crit.
>>29315922
and theres a 50% chance of either one. kys >>29315914
>>29315852
If you're going to insult everyone's lack of math skill, you better make sure your own answer is correct first in order to avoid looking like a retard.
>>29315914
Its 50% tho. Like if you can't grasp that you should seek medical help because you might be mentally deficient
>>29314211 It can't be nocrit-nocrit, so it's crit-nocrit, crit-crit, or nocrit-crit, and 1/3 of those equally likely options is both crits so yes
It's a meme to claim that the answer is 33% while calling 50%fags retards even though it's the obvious answer. Stop falling for the bait boys you only frustrate yourself.
>>29315948
if one hit is guaranteed crit it would make sense to make it the first one unless its every consecutive attack is a crit that has a multiplier but that would be op af
>>29315933
>4 possible situations of equal probability at first
>problem narrows it down to 3 situations of equal probability
>1 of those 3 fulfills the actual criteria
>1 out of 3 is the answer
Can't really make it more clear than that. I'd love to hear you try to explain why the above is wrong.
>>29315960
crit and no crit, no crit and crit is the same shit the order doesnt matter dipshit holy cow
first one being 1/2 chance of crit, second one also 1/2 chance of crit it is 1/2 x 1/2 so 1/4.
%25
>>29315948
Show your math. We'll show you why you are wrong.
>>29315977
because the order in which the guaranteed crit occurs is redundant, idiot.
>>29315961
> the actual mathematical solution to the answer is a meme
>>29315982
Someone didn't pay attention in high school math.
>>29316008
You can't meme me into an argument. Have fun pretending to be retarded.
>>29315977
you dont specify your need for the order of the hits, leaving it open to interpretation as such crit + no crit and no crit + crit are the same.
you trolled yourself dont ask me for an explanation dumb ass
>>29314211
4 possibilities.
CC
CN
NC
NN
You know you crit atleast once; given this information NN is not an option.
CC
CN
NC
These are your possible combinations.
CC is what you want, which is a 1/3 chance.
>>29316016
nou
original commento
>>29315999
That's not how probabilities work. The idiot here is you.
>hurr it looks the same to me so I'll just change the situation
That's like saying that 2+2+1 is 3 because the second 2 is redundant so I'll just take it out.
>>29316023
mmm that a spicy meme anon-kun
>>29316028
Read up on combinations and permutations. You can't just throw out things at random because you don't understand them.
>>29316045
its not how probability works but its how you get the answer to the dumb fuck question you posted. get it?
Is it like tf2 and there are miniclits?
>>29316069
i can do whatever i like anon. theres absolutely nothing you can do about it.
>>29316028
You fail to explain how those are the same. And how you can just take out something out of the equation at random. You can't cheat math.
>>29316089
There is nothing I can do about you being a mental midget, true. Would have been nice to be able to educate you on math, but if you want to remain ignorant, well, your choice.
>>29316097
>>29316090
guaranteed crit you fucking imbeciles
like i said, youre only trolling yourselves
How can anyone think it's a 50/50 chance?
Think of it this way:
1) you roll and get a crit. In this single instance it was a 50/50 chance
2) here you roll again. You either do or don't get a crit. It is no longer a 50/50 chance.
Obviously a super basic way to think about it but it can help you wrap your head around it in a different way.
>>29316126
because one hit is guaranteed youre only asking the odds of the non guaranteed hit is and the answer is given to you fuck off
>>29316132
order doesnt matter youre all cheeky trolls, smarter than all of us, teach me how to math learned individuals 420 blaze it
>>29316109
You failed to explain again. That's not how math works. Throwing words around won't make it right even if you use "idiot".
Once again, the "situation scenario" which has been presented many times is correct. If you disagree, then point out the error in it.
>>29316097
youre not fooling anyone. you know what you're doing and it certainly doesn't fall under the category of trying to help. you're like a glass jar full of shit, hard to look at.
>>29316132
Oh I get it your just trolling me. Obvious from your other posts. No one could actually be this retarded, r-right?
>>29316141
The order matters a lot, actually.
If you know that one or both will be a crit, if that first hit isn't a crit then the second will be for sure.
Otherwise it's a straight 50/50
>>29314211
If 1 out of 2 hits is a guaranteed crit, we can remove this hit from equation. Now we have 1 hit that will or will not crit with a chance of 50%. The answer is 50%.
>>29316187
>we can remove this hit
No. You can't.
Roll 50/50 chance.
Probability 1 (50%) Get no-crit, next hit is crit.
Probability 2 (50%) Get crit. Now if the first hit was not guaranteed there is a one hundred percent chance that this one is a crit. If the first hit was guaranteed there is a 50/50 chance of this one being a crit. So the question is, what are the odds of the first hit being the guaranteed one? If it's fifty-fifty odds, then you've got 50% odds of N,C, 25% odds of C,C, and 25% odds of C,?. Since the ? is another 50/50, that subdivides the last 25% into two 12.5% possibilities, one of which is C,C, which gives us (25+12.5) a 37.5% chance of C,C, assuming that the guaranteed hit is a 50/50 chance.
>>29316341
I love it how people come up with more and more complicated statements and end up with a wrong answer, when the simple way to do it is correct.
>>29316396
Hey, I'm not one of the 50%ers. I'd unsarcastically love to hear why my answer's wrong.
Its clearly 50% stop this meme
>>29316423
The 2 probabilities you list at the very beginning are not 50-50 anymore because of the "at least one is a crit" condition.
A coin has two sides, heads and tails.
You flip the coin twice, one of the coin flips is guaranteed to come up heads. What is the probability both results are heads?
50%
>>29316515
>guaranteed to come up heads
How? Is it a trick coin? Or are you saying this after-the fact when it's already been tossed?
Case 1: First roll is a guaranteed crit. Second roll is 50/50. It misses.
Case 2: First roll is a guaranteed crit. Second roll is 50/50. It crits.
Case 3: First roll is 50/50. It lands as a crit. Second roll is 50/50. It misses.
Case 4: First roll is 50/50. It lands as a crit. Second roll is guaranteed crit, it crits.
Case 5: First roll is 50/50. It misses. Second roll is guaranteed crit.
Thinking about it in terms of permutations, the subset of possible solutions is divided into
{ (crit, miss), (miss, crit), (crit,crit) }. If all of these combinations had an equal chance of occurring, the solution would be 1/3. However that is not the case, as demonstrated above by looking at the cases procedurally.
(crit,crit) occurs 2/5 of the time, (miss,crit) occurs 1/5 of the time, and (crit,miss) occurs 2/5 of the time.
So the answer is 2/5, or 37.5%. The problem is a weighted permutation.
>>29316634
There aren't 5 possible cases. Your starting point is wrong. Where do you get your "guaranteed crit" from? No such thing.
>>29316634
>Atleast one of the hits is a crit
There can never be a guaranteed crit on the first roll, and if the first crits there can not be a guaranteed crit on the second
>>29316634
>2/5 = 37.5%
Had me there for a second.
>>29316685
There is guaranteed crits, just not in the way he says. If the first hit doesn't crit the second is guaranteed to within the premise of the question
Can never tell in these threads who is an actual retard and who is trolling.
>At least one of the hits is a crit
So there's a 50% chance of another crit hitting, the answer tells you this
>>29314211
Possibilities:
__
_C
C_
CC
All equally likely. As at least one must be crit...
C_
_C
CC
Are the only possibilities. Thus, 33%. OP is right.
>>29317339
Funny how this simple explanation appears at least 5 times and somehow people still ignore it.
>>29317339
the order doesn't matter
It's rather C or _
It is a 25% chance. Come on guys, this is simple binomial probability.
probability of crit on any given hit: 1/2
prob. of no crit: 1/2
the probability of any given outcome is
nCr*F^(n-r)*S^r
where n is the total number of hits (2),
r is the number of successes (crits, which is 2)
F is the probability of failure and
S is the probability of success
from the question we get:
2C2*(1/2)^(2-2)*(1/2)^2
2C2=1, and (1/2)^(2-2)=1, and (1/2)^2=1/4
therefore the probability of 2 crits is 1/4 or 25%
it's fucking simple
>>29317369
Funny how people the simple counter argument to that explanation came up at least 5 times and somehow people still ignore it.
>>29315985
this. fucking hell, is everyone retarded? It's 25%.
>>29317512
>>29314211
The probability is 100% because I have a high luck attribute due to equipment and weapon enchantments.
>>29317430
>order doesn't matter
Write down the correct probabilities of each scenario. They must add up to 100%.
>>29317512
Wrong. The odd of neither being critical is 0%. You need to readjust probabilities to reflect that.
>>29317543
Show me one example that proves it wrong. You can't. The "order doesn't matter" posters are retards who don't understand simple math.
WRITE. IT. DOWN. If you can't, you are wrong.
>>29317636
The only correct undisputable answer in this thread.
>>29317642
mate, i learnt binomial probability in extension maths earlier in the year. it's simple shit, and this is a simple question to which the answer is 25%. The odd of neither being a critical is 25%. Don't speak of things you do not know for sure, because i can assure you you are wrong.
Is it possible for the enemy to be revived?
>>29317755
Read the problem again. The probability of neither being crit is 0% because the problem fucking tells you so. That leaves only 3 out of the original 4 possibilities.
>>29317790
ah fuck, i didn't read it properly. You're right. In this case i would say a 50% chance then. Because it is already determined that one will definitely be a crit, so the only thing that can change is the 2nd hit, which is a 50/50 chance.
>>29317819
Nope, still wrong. The problem doesn't say the first hit was a crit.
>>29317819
the only thing you learned this year was fucking dicks apparently, gave the answer to this question 4 hours ago and it's been posted 10 times already, if you can't really understand it and keep saying its 50/50 just quit whatever the fuck u are doing and go work at mcdonalds seriously.
>>29317862
Yes it does. Read it again dumbfuck.
>>29314211
This is the funniest thing I've seen on here in days, people are seriously riled up.
By the way the answer is 33% you fucking retards
Multiple people in this thread have provided undeniable logic in that eliminating NN there leaves only the other three outcomes
Think of the goat -door problem, that worked in the same order of logic. If you can apply that to this, you'll understand why 33% right, not 50%
>>29317819
The first hit isn't guaranteed to crit, it could be the 2nd.
>>29317862
>>29317882
the order doesn't matter
>>29317932
Ofc it does.
hit-crit and crit-hit are two different outcomes
>>29317932
Then show your math and how it adds up to 50% or whatever you think is the right answer.
>>29314211
Solve it empirically
>>29317932
Order does matter in this question.
if the first hit isn't a crit the second one HAS to be and if the first hit does crit there is a 50% chance the second one will as well
>>29317954
Banned? What was it?
>>29317980
So 20% chance
>>29314709
>>29314288
Ayy some robots understand logic. It's weird how some people don't understand what "at least one is a crit" means
>>29314485
The probability space is
{(not crit, not crit), (crit, not crit), (not crit, crit), (crit, crit)}
As we see, if we know at least one is crit, there remain 3 possible options. One of those options is double crit, so it's 1/3.
>>29318038
Funny how someone who claims others don't understand logic is the one who doesn't understand the logic himself.
>>29318048
It's been posted over and over again. Some people are just immune to logic. I can't think of a simpler way to explain it.
>>29318198
He's right though. The question is what the probability of two crits are when one is guaranteed, which is 50%.
It's either:
1hit, 1 crit
OR
1crit, 1crit.
Two options, therefore 50/50.
>>29318237
Explain it with brute force.
http://codepad.org/DynYj7nI
>>29318255
It has been explained close to 10 times now why it's 33%. Show your calculations if you disagree.
>>29318255
3 options. You missed one.
>>29318255
If you're going the "order doesn't matter" route and combine two scenarios into one "1 hit, 1 crit" you need to remember its probability is not 50% but 66%.
>>29318297
>>29318310
Category A is defined as each hit returning a different value. Category B is each hit returning the same value.
1hit
1 crit
Falls under category A.
1crit
1hit
Falls under category A.
1 crit
1 crit
Falls under category B.
The question is whether or not both hits are critical, not the order of said crits.
>>29318327
show maths pls
>>29318378
You described 3 possible scenarios, each equally likely. Each has a 33% chance. Scenarios A therefore add up to 66% and scenario B is 33%.
>>29318378
>murder rape is the same as rape murder
>>29318437
>>29318492
It's not the order that matters though. If it were about the probability of the first hit being a critical strike you would be correct.
>>29318520
Order ALWAYS matters. It's only at the later stage when looking at your exact problem that you can combine the scenarios with different orders.
>>29318378
Show how you can add up those 3 possibilities so that scenario B's probability is 50%? Maths. So it adds up. All scenarios must have a total probability of 100%.
>>29318520
That doesn't mean you can arbitrarily throw out scenarios without adjusting the probabilities.
>>29318572
>>29318586
Evidently not. In this scenario, one hit, one crit and one crit, one hit equals the same shit.
>>29318674
Never fucking mind. I get it now.
Jesus.
It's a 50/50 chance if one is guaranteed, you tardettes.
The order never mattered, as the question is asking the probability of BOTH being a critical hit if ONE is guaranteed.
You're playing yourselves or trolling if you don't understand.
Solution: suicide
>>29318745
Just when I thought the thread was dying, another retard comes in with the wrong answer shouting. Never ceases to be funny.
>>29318823
(.5*.5)/(.25+.25) =.5 because p(a|b)=p(a &b)/p(b). Given a and b are Independent. If not its a bullshit question
It's 25% you fucking fags
>>29318948
Here we see a classic example of plugging numbers into a formula without understanding it. That formula doesn't reflect the situation described by the problem.
>>29319171
Someone tell why this isn't correct, this is the first answer I came to
It's 50, dingus.
if it was 2 unknown flips it would be 25% because .5*.5=.25, but we already know one of them is definitely heads no matter what. that makes to .5*1.0=.5
>>29319171
That's not how you draw a probability tree. You first do all the possible outcomes. Then apply conditions and restrictions. Alternatively, make sure your already restricted outcome weights are correct. Yours aren't. You are incorrectly assigning 50% to the bottom one and 25% to the top ones. All three are 33%.
>>29314211
At least one of the hits is a crit means its a guarantee of one being a crit, so we can ignore one and merely focus on the unknown hit. There's a 50% chance of the second one of being a crit so the chance is 50%
>>29319583
That would be right if we were told the first is a crit. But that's not the case. We don't know if the first is a crit or not.
>>29319642
What? On the first strike it's 50%/50%, then on the second strike it's 100% if the first was a regular, or again 50%/50% if the first was a crit.
Shut the fuck up if you don't know what you're talking about.
THERES ALWAYS A 50% CHANCE OF A HIT BEING A CRIT
IF THERES ONLY ONE HIT IN QUESTION ITS 50%
>>29319694
Funny how the more clueless someone is, the louder he shouts at everyone and calls them idiots. You don't know shit about probability. Anyway, let me try to explain why you are wrong. It's because you are changing the problem mid-run and not answering the original question.
Your probability tree illustrates "after your first hit, you know you are going to have at least one crit no matter what." If it was not a crit, you are now on the fly rigging it because you have a 100% chance of it being a crit before even hitting. You're cheating. The probability of a crit is always 50%, and now you have created a situation where that rule is violated.
The problem tells you what the situation is after the two hits have been done. It is telling you that one outcome is possible, and you have to adjust for it.
>>29316040
yeah but the guaranteed crit can be called C1 and the random crit C2, resulting in
C1N
NC1
C1C2
C2C1
Which is 50%
>>29319721
This problem has two hits. You have to analyze it in the context of both hits together and their probabilities.
>>29319821
>guaranteed crit
There is no such thing. The probability of a crit is always 50%.
>>29319823
We already know the outcome of one of them though. It's probability is 100% crit.
>>29319840
Reread the problem
>>29319840
>At least one is a crit
>>29319494
Because much like
>>29318823
You didn't understand the question
You guys do know that these threads are full of trolls, right? don't go blue in the face arguing this out with people here, that's a free ticket on the ruse cruise.
>>29319657
That literally doesn't matter.
We KNOW one is a crit, and the question is asking for the probability of the OTHER hit to be a crit
>>29319894
You realize that people are legitimately uneducated here, right? Most are dropouts.
>>29319859
>>29319871
The probability of a crit is always 50%. You are changing it by making a magical sky wizard appear and changing the probabilities in the middle of the battle.
>You got no crit? Okay! Your next is a guaranteed hit!
The problem tells us that after both hits are done, one of the possible outcomes is eliminated.
>>29319809
The problem isn't phrased in the past tense. The question wasn't "what was the chance of ..."
Especially since we're talking about cross, i.e. a mechanic in a fucking computer game, the implication is that if you strike twice, one will always be a crit, sort of like a shitty form of pRNG.
>>29319809
Read the question, dumbass.
If the first wasn't a crit, the second will be.
One of them is a crit.
This is too hard for you, huh?
>>>/out/ underageb&
>>29319910
>magical sky wizard
kys
We're talking about a fucking computer system. The question is about crits, not coin flips.
>>29319908
The less educated someone is, the louder they shout and insult everyone else. I'm actually a math grad student but stay out of these things because I don't want to catch stupid.
It's 50% you fucking idiots
There's a 50% chance there's a crit, EVERY TIME.
It doesn't matter what your last hit was
>>29319911
crits*
Fucking autocorrect
>>29319910
>The probability of a crit is always 50%. You are changing it by making a magical sky wizard appear and changing the probabilities in the middle of the battle.
No, the problem itself tells us that one of the hits goes on to crit. No additional wizard needed.
>>29319939
That's the simplest way of putting it, yes.
/thread
>>29319938
So then what's the answer so that you can get everyone to shut up
>>29319910
There are four outcomes
C/C
C/N
N/C
N/N
No crits at all is elminated which leaves
C/C
C/N
N/C
At least one is a crit which means that we eliminate one of the variables on the outcomes as its not relevant to chance at this point, which leaves two unique outcomes for the unknown hit
C
N
That's 50%
>le I use obscure grammer and circular logic argument xD
stop this, this makes me feel stupid, not as in "just ignorant about maths" but as in "really fucking stupid because its so simple"
if one if a crit, then there is a 50% chance both are crit since the next or prev one will be either a crit or a normal hit
>>29319911
In which case we would have 3 equal possible outcomes and the answer is 33%.
>>29319920
That's not what your probability tree is picturing.
>>29319938
Maybe if you got your head or if your ass (or learnt precise reading) you'd realise that we're not talking about your textbook math problems.
>>29318237
I'm a math major and my professor literally went over this type of problem.
>>29319995
We're only finding the probability of one hit, which is 50%, as stated in the OP.
Continuing to reply just shows how dumb you are.
>>29319995
>would have 3 equal possible outcomes
which ones?
crticial-normal hit is the same as normal-critical
>n-no its not
yes it is unless the damage multiplier is higher when health goes below a certain value, in which case, fuck your shitty RPG
>>29319995
I give up, go on being a dumbass and believing in your 33%.
>>29319968
Do you seriously believe it that even if Stephen Hawking posted a timestamped answer it would help? The correct answer has been posted. But those who are wrong are so fanatical about it no explanation will change their minds.
>>29314211
It doesn't say that one of them is a guaranteed crit. It just says that one of them and doesn't mention if it will always be a crit. It just says that one of them is a crit. Whether this means it had a 50% chance of being a crit or not is therefore up for debate. Since it is, people will solve the problem from their own interpretations of the text rather than from what's objectively there. And here we are.
>>29319998
>math students can't use their education to solve this problem because it's not in their textbooks
>highschool dropouts know the correct answer
Any first year math student will have had plenty of practice with problems like this. And much more complex ones.
>>29319998
Nigger this is a logic question and maths majors at the end of their education eventually are working on pure logic problems.
>>29314518
>>29316040
You fucking retards
no crit + crit is exactly the same as crit + no crit
The order which they happen is irrelevant.
So it's 50%
>>29316045
That's not how probability works.
You would be right if the problem required that the first hit, or second hit has to be a critical. But it's not specified, therefor irrelevant.
>>29320021
Show your math. How will you combine the two "they're the same" ? I am curious if you are going to post a formula like:
33% + HURR = 50%
C = Crit, N = Normal hit.
How much of the shaded area does CC take up?
Thats your answer.
(Hint: 33%)
You flip a coin two times. At least one of the flips is heads. What is the probability that both of the flips are heads?
>>29320078
Show your calculations. Show everyone how you apply "they are the same so it's irrelevant".
To me it seems like you are just arbitrarily removing something you shouldn't.
>>29320081
NC and CN are redundant as they're the same answer.
>>29320119
They're not. If you get N first time, and C second time, then that's a different even than C first time, N second time.
>>29320100
One is guaranteed so you do not include it in probability, it has a 100% chance. The second has a probability of 50%, which is the answer.
>>29320095
Do you suffer from actual brain damage? That's not the same question.
How can you even know that one will be guaranteed heads ahead of time in the real world?
But OP's question does not play in the real world, it plays in a fucking game, where the future can be controlled by a computer. So if you miss the first one (which you have a 50% chance of doing it), the computer will guaranteed grant you a crit on the second.
This is not the case when you flip coins.
>>29320100
>you shouldn't.
according to what?
>>29320079
>"they're the same"
let say a critical hit deals 50% damage and a normal hit deals 25%
they both deal 75% in total
unless for some reason your defense points go down when you go below 60% health or something, in which case that game is shit
>>29320134
>different even
different event
>>29320081
>at least one hit is a crit
the nn state doesn't exist here
>>29320140
>his game deals only in percentual damage
no, your game is shit
>>29314211
>50% crit
>at least one is a crit
epic.
>>29320119
No they're not.
There are 4 possible outcomes.
The first crit, second normal
The first crit, second crit
The first normal, second crit
The second normal, second crit
This is really basic first year probability at university, if you want I can link you to a textbook that explains it.
>>29320148
Exactly, the NN state doesn't exist, so the CC takes up 33% of the remaining space.
>>29320135
>guaranteed
There's that word again. There is no such thing. The chance of getting a crit is 50%. You can't change that.
>>29320134
That's not relevant to the question. What's relevant is the other one being a crit or not a crit, which is a 50% chance. There's always a 50% chance.
>>29320149
i rarely play RPGs I assume they worked that way
>>29320157
Er first normal second normal**
>>29320160
Reread the question
>>29320157
Not relevant. The only relevance is whether or not the non-guaranteed critical is a crit or not, which is a 50% chance.
>>29320140
Do you understand "show your math" ? You still haven't.
>>29320157
oh sorry, i misread that graph because i'm terminally retarded
you're exactly right
>>29320174
The chance of a crit is 50%. It can't be spelled out more clearly.
>>29319721
No. OP very clearly said that one hit would be a crit. Assuming the first hit is that crit, it will be 50/50, if not then it's guaranteed.
>>29320157
Not him but I would like the link, please. Because I have no doubt you're misapplying what you believe to know.
>The second normal, second crit
What?
>>29320165
Too many percent hp attacks gets pretty lame, they should be implemented sparingly as they remove the benefit from +hp items.
>>29320081
For further reading if anyone is still confused
http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/86797/whats-the-probability-of-2-head-given-at-least-1-head
>>29320100
In case order is irrelevant:
Option 1 - one is a crit, the other isn't.
Option 2 - one is a crit, the other is too.
In case order is relevant:
Option 1 - first is crit, second one isn't
Option 2 - first is crit, second one is too.
Option 3 - first doesn't crit, second one does.
In other words, the probability of having them both crit is 50%.
The probability of missing the second one is 33%.
The probability of the first one being a crit is 66%.
We were asked for the probability of having two critical hits, regardless of order which they occur.
One even has a 1.00 chance of occurring, the other has a 0.5 probability.
1.00 * 0.5 = 0.5, which is 50%.
>>29320174
>Not relevant
Explain how that graph does not exactly describe the possible outcomes and their probabilities?
>>29320053
Next time you decide to huff glue and shitpost, do us a favor and kill yourself my man
>>29320162
You don't get to make the rules here.
The probability space is defined as:
{ (C,C), (N,N), (C,N), (N,C) }
Now given that ONE OF THEM is crit, then we know that we can't get (N,N), so three possible outcomes left.
But I'm sure you know better than my professor who published a fuckton of research papers in probability theory.
>>29320202
I love it when uneducated high schoolers are adamantly going against uni educated people in the subject.
>>29314211
Is it pseudo-RNG?
>>29320196
At least one is a crit. Reread again
>>29320198
>>29320215
If at least one is a crit then its guaranteed in the probability that we'll have 1 as a crit. Reread the question
>>29320219
>Appealing to authority
wew lad
We're only concerning ourselves with one coin right now, which has a 50% chance of being a crit. The answer is 50%.
>>29320202
If you're actually serious in wanting to understand why the answer is 1/3, try going through the first chapter in this book
http://siva.bgk.uni-obuda.hu/jegyzetek/Matematika/Fejezetek_a_matematikabol/Erasmus/Probability/SpringerTextsinStatistics.pdf
It's a very good guide to probability. FWIW I've done 2 years of statistics at university, I can guarantee the answer is 33%.
If you'd like another explanation as to why see the link I posted previously
http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/86797/whats-the-probability-of-2-head-given-at-least-1-head
>>29320160
It is 50% conditionally, the condition being that one of two will be a sure thing.
The OP said this, I'm just repeating it.
>>29320174
you're dealing with events that can only manifest themselves in real time, one has to happen before the other and therefore they are dependent on each other, which means the order they take place is significant. therefore, nc and cn are two distinct events
when you roll a dice, rolling a 6 is always a 1/6 probability no matter what, but rolling two consecutive sixes has only a 1/36 chance for this exact reason. it's the combined probability of two independent events which is P(A) * P(B)
all yalls niggas is arguing over helping OP with his pokemon skills, lmao
>>29320232
I love it when you just enlisted to uni and think this makes you smarter than everyone on the internet.
Here's the thing, little fag, I have a degree in CS.
>hurr durr gobble gobble whatwstsijfg s
I don't care, kys fucking autist. If "I think I have more credentials than you" is the basis of your argument you should actually fucking kill yourself.
>>29320204
That's an entirely different situation though.
It discusses 3 coin tosses, where the first had been made, and the following two are completely random.
>>29320250
just realized i messed up my terminology in the first portion, they're probabilistically independent but the system is dependent
whoever named the terms in probability theory deserves to get shot
>>29320265
>computer """science""" babby thinks his degree is worth shit in the world of mathematics
TOP FUCKING LAUGHTER COMING OUT OF MY MOUTH RIGHT NOW, FAMILY
>>29320265
Are you a %50-er? Because then you are objectively wrong.
Also most CS majors on my faculty are fucking retarded anyway, they don't even do math beyond calculus and linear algebra.
>>29320210
Are you actually retarded?
The odds are 50/50 on hit one, and either 100% or 0% on the second depending on the outcome of the first.
Your numbers don't even add up to fucking 100 and would be wrong even if they did.
>>29320219
I hope someone proofread his research then, if a retard like you came outta his class.
We are finding whether or not the second hit that is not a guaranteed critical is a critical, for which the probability is stated for that in the OP.
Lrn 2 read, fucktard.
>>29320271
>It discusses 3 coin tosses, where the first had been made
No, there are two throws, we are given one is head, what is the probability the both are. Read the question again.
>>29320210
You have incorrect figures for your "order is not relevant" scenario. The probability of one hit one crit is 67%, not 33%.
Think about it this way: how the hell would order have any effect on crit+crit? How are you even determining that "order is irrelevant" in the first place? You're actually implying that the outcomes can be changed by your decisions.
>I care about order? It's 33.
>I changed my mind. Now I care about order. OMG the outcome probability magically changed!
>>29320204
>>29320244
I read the stackoverflow and it made sense to me while reading, but assuming we're talking about predicting the future in a game (the guy in the stack overflow also assumes that you just simply know that one will be heads from the get-go), what is this guy >>29319171 doing wrong?
>>29320271
If you'd like to see it phrased in it's most common form (including the way taught to me at university in my first year), see the following
http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/2731/very-simple-conditional-probability-question
>>29320279
>If "I think I have more credentials than you" is the basis of your argument you should actually fucking kill yourself.
>>29320290
Tell me, what the fuck is beyond Calculus that isn't needed for niche theoretical fields?
there are three possibilities all equally weighted so 1/3
>>29314211
1.0 * 0.5 = .5
The order of the crits doesn't matter. You have two probabilities. 100% and 50%. 100 * 50 = 50%
>one of which is guarunteed to crit
that leaves us with the other one, with 50% to crit
so it's 50/50?
someone correct me if i am incorrect, because it clearly states one is guarunteed to crit, while the other is 50%..
>>29320265
He's not appealing to authority, merely making a point. He actually posted math, pure facts, not women's studies. And all you can do is say hurr durr you entitled cunt the facts are wrong, my beliefs are right!
>>29320329
a lot of complexity theory in computer science (which is often practiced for large scale, high-load systems) is modeled using aspects developed in number theory and group theory
>>29320314
His probability tree weights are wrong. He is changing the problem after the first hit, where he makes a crit have a probability of 100% instead of 50%.
>>29320240
It's essentially just one roll.
Or it can be thought of as one roll of 50/50 and either 0 or 100% on the second roll determined by the first result.
>>29320301
no u
The question is about the odds of getting 2 heads, by flipping 2 coins, AFTER getting a 1 head start.
In other words, they ask for the probability of getting head a single time out of 2, without order relevance.
>>29320308
>How are you even determining that "order is irrelevant" in the first place?
Because they didn't ask what the odds are for having the first or second one be a crit. They asked for the odds of having both of them crit.
If you were to take all options into consideration, then it would look like this:
first is c(guaranteed), second is normal
first is normal, second is c(guaranteed)
first is c(guaranteed), second is c
first is c, second is c(guaranteed)
In which case, it's a 50% regardless.
>>29320373
But why is that wrong? If the first is not a crit, then the second must?
>>29320409
This is where you're WRONG WRONG WRONG.
You assume that both the first one C is guaranteed AND that the second C is guaranteed. Both are different events, since the experiment is happening in real time.
>>29320373
As you are only finding the outcome of a single roll, you get 50%, as stated in OP.
KYS
>>29320308
>>I care about order? It's 33.
>>I changed my mind. Now I care about order. OMG the outcome probability magically changed!
Asking for the possibility of having a specific hit be a critical, and asking for the possibility of a general outcome is a completely different question.
I hope you're trolling desu
>>29320436
All 4 are different events.
That's how you calculate probability.
>yfw all the %50-ers don't even know what a moment-generating function is
>yfw these are the same people that call YOU retarded
I just wrote a c++ program and I am getting 25%. Tell me what I would be missing here:
>First it randoms true or false (50%) on "hit1"
>If hit1 is NOT a crit, then hit2 MUST be a crit (i.e don't add to the counter because both were not a crit)
>if hit1 IS a crit, then crit2 has a 50% chance of being crit
>If both hit1 and hit2 are true, then increment a counter
>Getting 25% as the result
