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Trump to lose Wisconsin?
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You are currently reading a thread in /pol/ - Politically Incorrect

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https://www.yahoo.com/katiecouric/how-does-trump-recover-from-his-latest-missteps-143112260.html

>Bennett also dismissed any concerns voters might have about Trump’s foreign policies. “Voters in this country are concerned about things like the southern border — not only controlling immigration, but controlling the inflow of heroin into our country. They’re concerned about the economy, because they’re working harder and making less. They’re concerned about a government in Washington that who piled up $19 billion on the backs of my children, your children, all of our grandchildren through their irresponsible fiscal ways. That’s what the voters care about. Nuclear policy and all that stuff is a good news sound bite for a day, but it wouldn’t even list in the top 100 things on voters’ minds across the country.”
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Wisconsin is different from many other states. We are a swing state, BUT our Republican voters are VERY conservative. Moreso than the national average. Some of our counties are the most conservative in the nation. Our leftists are also extremely liberal.

Trump doesn't do well with traditional paleoconservatives.

Also trump showed up here and started bashing Gov Walker, spewing leftist talking points, and saying he ruined our state. Virtually no republican voter in our state agrees with this. Many people aren't super hot on Walker because he's woefully uncharismatic, but they like him because he took on the psychotic unions, never backed down, and balanced our terrible budget.
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>>69656171
>19 billion
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Any registered voter of any party affiliation can vote in the Wisconsin GOP primaries. GOP primary polls are only polling likely Republican voters. Anything could happen. There could be a huge upset.
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>>69656701
I think Trump has the edge because of Wisconsin being an Open Primary. Democrats and Independents favor Trump more. Donald is really going in Wisconsin HARD starting tomorrow. He has 9 rallies/townhalls/interviews scheduled in the next 2-3 days which is a heck of a lot more than normal.

The poll with a Sample Level of over 7,000 had Trump winning by 1%. The latest polls with significantly lower Sample Levels of around 400-700 don't do that justice.

It's gonna be close.
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Not sure why people care so much about republican outcome, everyone knows a democrat is gonna win general elections and most likely new presidency will be same or worse than under Obama, basically nothing will change and it will be business as usual.
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>>69656930
I agree it will probably be close. I'm here in WI and I'll be voting Trump. If I was a betting man I'd wager Cruz to be victorious though. Our Democrats are so liberal, there probably won't be much cross over. I predict Cruz and Bernie winning.
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>>69657047
Hello, Hillary.
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>>69657127
Either way, Trump will get some delegates.
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>>69657203
True, I just wish Trump demolished him here.
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>>69656701
I'm starting to really despise the very conservative voter. they refuse to see what is important because of their dogmatic stances.
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>>69657322
bernie?
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>>69656891
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>>69656171
Why does Rato keep climbing up right before the contests?
Why is he polling so high in Commiefornia?

Send help
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>>69656171
Wisconsin and many more states from here on out. Trump is a meme candidate and meme's get old.
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>>69658066
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html
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>>69658328
>Cruz
RREEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!

>>69658354
>That LA Times Poll
Is... is this th-the power of shilling?
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>>69658328
>meme's get old.
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>>69657047
because unlike obama,the next runner-up will enact real change for the next 10-20 years
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>>69656701
Fellow WiscoFag here. I agree about Walker. One of the proudest moments in Wisconsin politics was when he defeated the recall by a higher margin than the proper election.

Trump might not win Tuesday, but he most certainly won't lose by much.
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>Fox Business poll

How convenient they cite that one instead of the PPP poll (which is a more accurate pollster) that was released the same day.
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>>69656171
>Tommy Lawson

U-uncle?
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>>69659115
LISA!?
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>>69658900
Maybe, but it's winner take all so...
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If trump does win what happens then?
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>>69659915
If Trump wins WI then there's really nothing the establishment can do to prevent him from winning a first-round ballot. Between the remaining winner-take-all states and the favorable proportional states like New York Trump should be able to get 1237 pretty easily.

Without WI it's still doable, but becomes much more of a challenge.
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That scandal still hasn't ruined cruz?
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>>69660243
Give it time.
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>>69660243

No. :(

I wanted an immediate result. If NE gets beaten to the punch, that's their problem.
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>>69656701
this guy gets it, the retards that make up the "true conservatives" lack the vision to deal with the modern liberal. They think Lyin' Ted is the answer because he talks about God now and then, those old fucks have no idea what it's like to be on a modern college campus.
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>>69658066
He appeals to real conservatives, like Benjamin Shapiro
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Donald has 3 rally's in 1 day tomorrow

doubt he would do that if he didn't think he even had a 15% chance of winning
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>>69660608
doesn't help that americans are pressing this kinda thing to young kids these days
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>>69660725
It will be interesting to see what his strategy for the rallies will be.

also, this G+ layout is starting to grow on me. I think I'm going to miss it.
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>>69656171
of course he's going to lose wisconsin
the question is, will kasich beat him for second.
Trump typically does 5-9 points lower than he polls, with narrower drops in states with open primaries.
In states he wins, he usually STILL drops, he just usually polls way ahead to start.
Wisconsin is an open primary, so I doubt he'll drop more than 5 points than his lowest poll number, but that still puts him in mid twenties.
a 5 point drop for trump and a 5 point increase for kasich puts them neck and neck
if Trump can't even come in second, it'll be disastrous, since the next primary will be a couple weeks after, and it'll be New York of all places (where a Trump win won't seem impressive, but anything other than a blowout would be embarrassing)
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>>69657170
bernie will have a surprise win & beat hillary

screen cap this!
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>>69660725

He must know something we don't, otherwise, like you said, he would have just given up.
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I think you will see Dems crossover. people who hate hillary but either think bernie is too crazy or has no chance might be willing to protest vote for Trump, and anyone who believes Cruz is the second coming of satan and could live with clinton/sanders will come over too.

I'll just say this: Cruz finishes third.
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who gives a shit about this dumb ass cheese sniffer state
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>>69657322
Trump had a pretty good chance to beat out Cruz in WI, but he fucked up pretty hard the last week or so, so I think he blew it.

He should have won this with the energy he had coming out of AIPAC with that good speech, but his problem is that he never knows how to act after he's won, so he throws it away and sets himself back.
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>>69660243
It hasn't gone anywhere yet since there's no PROOFS
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>>69661431
Are you retarded? Trump won't make it to 1237 without Wisconsin, idiot

>trump loses a state
>HURR WHO CARES, STATE IS SHIT BECAUSE [REASONS]
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>>69661176
>Trump typically does 5-9 points lower than he polls
That's not true, he usually hits his polling average fairly accurately.
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Trump recovers by winning NY, the rest of the Northeast, PA, NJ, and CA.

Why are people acting like Wisconsin's 40-something delegates are a deal breaker?
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>>69661903
lolno, check RCP
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>>69661908
You are deluding yourself. Check the maths.

Protip: it's not as easy as you think.

Trump needs 18 from Wisconsin
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>>69661908
Winning WI would kill any effort to stop him from getting to 1237.

Without the win they'll keep trying to stump him until the end, so that means it's gonna come down to California. It would just be a hell of a lot easier to win WI and be done with it, but at this rate it's not gonna happen.

I'll tell you this though, if Trump loses WI it won't even be that big of a deal if he makes it a close race, but if it's by a wide margin expect shilling to go off the charts until the big April primaries
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Is Wisconsin a open or closed primary?
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>>69656923
Holy shit. Thanks for the info, and thanks for posting it a full 6 seconds before that nigger Leroy Haley's shitpost below yours.
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>>69662053
Wisconsin 3 15 24 42 0 42 Primary (open) Winner-take-all Winner-take-all
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>>69656171
Trump was just cast at 37% they're making these numbers up now for propaganda I swear
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>>69662053
>Snyder
Oy vey! I've been exposed.
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>>69656701
>Trump doesn't do well with traditional paleoconservatives.
Yeah he does. Pat Buchanan loves him. Wisconsin is full of neocon cucks.
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>>69661903
>>69661176
Trumps performance v polls is always bad in caucus but in primaries, especially in open primaries, It's on point

Illinois poll average for Trump: 36.4%
Illinois performance for Trump: 38.8%

Florida poll average for Trump: 45.1%
Florida performance for Trump: 45.7%

Ohio poll average for Trump: 37%
Ohio performance for Trump: 35.6%

North Carolina poll average for Trump: 39.3%
North Carolina performance for Trump: 40.2%

Missouri had like 1 polls so can't really comment

Utah poll average for Trump: 11.5%
Utah performance for Trump: 14%

Arizona poll average for Trump: 38% (Not much polling, and polling that was done was earlier in the Month)
Arizona performance for Trump: 47.1%


I trust the polls, and that means I believe Trump will lose Wisconsin at this rate. Something drastic (Like the DC Madam thing coming out and It being about Cruz) needs to happen in the next 3 days
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>>69662727
The thing about WI is that it doesn't matter if Cruz gets killed by the sex scandal thing, so Trump can lose it and then have Cruz get nuked later on.

Sure it would be better if it happened now, but if it doesn't it probably won't make a difference in the end.

Also the first timer for the DC Madam info to drop goes off on Monday I think, so it could happen then, but I would count on it coming out later in April.
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you aren't' memeing hard enough, faggots

meme harder
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>>69662978
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>>69662927
Where can I see said whore dox timer?
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>>69657335
4chan has always had a disdain for moralfags and "social conservatives". They're mostly idiots that care more about being offended by trivial shit than the future of our nation.
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>>69662927
What happens when the DC madam list only has Trump's name on it?
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>>69659424

no it isnt

18 delegates are assigned to the plurality winner, another 24 are allocated WTA by district (plurality winner in the district takes all the district's 3 delegates)

Polling ive seen suggests that currently there are about 3 safe Trump districts (9 delegates) and 3 safe Rato districts, with another two districts that lean Rato but could be won by Trump depending on the effect of the next few days' campaigning.

This could go down a lot like Missouri did, but worst case scenario Trump will still get a handful of delegates. Lyin' Ted taking home 30 or so will hardly close the gap with Trump
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>>69662032
>I'll tell you this though, if Trump loses WI it won't even be that big of a deal if he makes it a close race, but if it's by a wide margin expect shilling to go off the charts until the big April primaries

This. Shilling has been brutal for the past week or two desu
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>>69656701
>Trump doesn't do well with traditional paleoconservatives.

wtf are you talking about, Trump is the political reborn of Pat Buchanan.
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>>69663695
Then Trump's campaign is completely dead in its track

But I doubt a story about prostitute from Washington DC that has had a gag order placed on her by Washington DC Judges is likely to involve a businessman from New York.
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>>69665027

This, Cruz supporters are either A) Establishment cucks or B) people who believe that Cruz looking good on paper will translate into Cruz performing well in office. The latter group were tricked by GWB as well. They are a bit gullible.

Trump has done far better with Evangelicals than expected, and generally harnessed support of most of the groups which sat under the right-wing "Big Tent" of the Tea-Party.

I'm a social conservative Protestant and economic centrist, and although I think Trump probably doesn't hate gays or abortion as much as I'd like him to, he also wouldn't be able to do much about either as president anyway, even if he did.

He can, however, get rid of the Mexicans, fuck the Chinese, and appoint one or two good SCOTUS justices, and that alone puts him ahead of any RINO or Demoshit. He will also probably not sic the Justic Department on Christians and cops the way the Obongo administration does.

I like Cruz on paper but I've also lived through the Bush years and Cruz has pretty much proved himself power-hungry and fake. In 1988 Trump said he didn't want to be President, but he would do it if the nation looked so bad that he felt compelled to. In that same year, hgihschool-aged Cruz said his "aspiration" was "world domination".
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Trump was never supposed to win Wisconsin... he doesn't need to win until April 19th.
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>>69660731
what the fuck do they put in the food in america
Thread replies: 67
Thread images: 13

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