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Anonymous
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2016-04-13 05:37:08 Post No. 70804243
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Anonymous
2016-04-13 05:37:08
Post No. 70804243
[Report]
>CSIS data on North Korea suggests the likelihood of a North Korean provocation after ROK legislative elections on April 13 and before the Korean Workers’ Party Congress in the first week of May. Historically, North Korea has responded with a missile or DMZ provocation within an average seven-day span before or after the legislative election event (this finding excludes the sunshine policy period from 2000 to 2004. The domestic dynamic of establishing the North’s recognized nuclear weapons status in time for the Party Congress is also a driving causal factor.
April 15 is the 104th birthday celebration of Kim Il-sung, which may present the need for an action.The provocation could take the form of a fifth nuclear test (commercial satellite imagery suggests that all preparations are complete, and that a test could happen without any forewarning). Or, it could take the form of a launch of one of North Korea as-yet untested mobile, medium and long-range ballistic missiles (Musudan, which could reach Guam, Hawaii; or the KN-08, KN-14, which could reach the West coast of the United States). http://csis.org/files/publication/16041 ... ctions.pdf
