I just did the math for delegates:
Trump has around 739 delegates right now
There are around 769 delegates left
Trump needs 498 delegates, so as of now, he needs around 65% of the remaining delegates.
Cruz has around 502 delegates now, meaning Cruz needs around 735 delegates. He needs about 96% of the remaining delegates.
Kasich has no chance of hitting 1237, because he need more delegates than there are available.
Right now Cruz is 3rd place in NY, where Trump is guaranteed to win (his home state, and he's over 50% in polls for NY). After New York, there won't be enough delegates for Cruz to hit 1237, even if he gets 2nd place (which Kasich will get).
Will Cruz be like Kasich by trying to steal delegates for a brokered convention? Or will he drop out?
Sources:
http://www.bustle.com/articles/152455-how-many-delegates-are-left-after-wisconsin-republicans-democrats-face-key-races (delegates left)
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/717673721302016004 (delegate counts)
>>70130790
Bump for OP. I waited for a thread like this.
Does Trump have a chance to get 1237 delegates?
>>70130790
If you assume CA and NY victories for Trump, he only needs about 52% of the remaining delegates from the leftover states. He currently hold 53% amongst the guys whoa re still in.
>>70130790
Neither Cruz nor Kasich can win the delegates. They're only hope now is to steal the nomination like the rats they are.
Of course they'll stay, what do you think the higher ups want?
>>70130790
Trump and MGS
Two of my favorite things together
Thank you for this pic
*saved*
cruz will never get picked at the convention so i would assume he would drop out.
Kasich will stay in the race regardless just to siphon delegates but his job is meaningless if he is alone.
The GOP will have to make some use of cruz WITH kasich if they want to force the convention.
Kasich cant do it alone, but cruz may get blown out by this scandal, which basically means trump wins the nominee
>>70130790
Trump has a very good chance of winning if your math is correct. He will slaughter in the North East. I can only hope Trump will annex Canada if he wins. MAGA.
>>70131803
We are Diamond Dons.
>>70131803
>>70131998
The northeast is very good for Trump.
NY is basically guaranteed for him.
A lot of people I've seen here in RI are either pro-Trump or pro-Bernie, and Connecticut/Rhode Island look good for Trump with polls anyways.
They say Wisconsin was a turning point, but when trump wins NY, that'll probably shift more people to him since it's more important.
>>70131403
The best chance. Just needs California.
>>70130790
He has to win NY by over 50% and take all 95 delegates. Youre also not counting the 160 unbound delegates that vote in the first round. Trump has a fucking 757 and luxury hotels all over the world. If he cant persuade most of those delegates to vote for him using his unbelievable assets, he doesn't deserve to be president
It's going to be paul ryan or some other establishment shill.
>>70132101
Sleepy Doctor should be Kaz
>>70131403
Does he have a chance?
HELL YEAH!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yu38kXw7lk
reminder that rubio hasn't un-leashed his delegates and could encourage them to support cruz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Uc3V8NxKWw
>>70132760
Well, you are right. But, those same p pile are probably having their very livelihood and even lives threatened by the Soros gang.
>>70131803
>>70132101
>>70132152
>>70133966
Fug yeah
Got any more?
>>70134814
>tfw the Don is a real life Big Boss
Venom Trump when
>>70132101
>>70132152
>>70133966
No POO replies
D I S A P P O O I N T E D
>>70135005
this picture is everything i've dreamed of
If only they could've fit Hillary somewhere near Soros then it would be absolute perfection
>>70130790
>Trump needs 65%
>Cruz needs 96(ninety six) PERCENT
>Kasich needs MORE THAN WHAT IS LEFT
What the fuck is wrong with Kasich?
>>70135308
Another classic
>>70131531
It's going to go to Kasich.
Reince Priebus was on Hannity last night and said that "one of the three in the running will get the nomination." Hannity specifically asked him if it would be Trump, or Cruz. He refused to say that Kasich is not in the running. Even though it's mathematically impossible for Kasich to get the required delegates, he's still considered in the running for the nomination.
The GOPe is throwing the election on purpose. Likely because they hope they can use Hillary POTUS to get a repeat of 2010 and 2014 like they did with Obama. However they didn't burn bridges with over 20% of their constituency to do it.
>>70131876
>cruz will never get picked at the convention
That's not what Cruz thinks. His campaign is apparently the best at going to state conventions to get his people picked as delegates. That way, when they're free for the second vote the cruise for Cruz.
>>70135565
Have this one already but yeah its a classic
>>70135514
Steal delegates away from Trump ahead of the convention, so Trump doesn't get an outright majority. Because he doesn't drop out, he then gets to bolster Cruz in the event of a contested convention.
Bullshit fuckery is bullshit. At least the Democrats are completely upfront about their brand of fuckery with their completely undemocratic "superdelegates".
>>70135892
But do you have the one with the backstory?
>>70137337
No.
Holy fugging shit
*saved*
>>70135671
Another 4 year congressional lockdown. I wonder how that would end.
These people have the guts to think that a guy like Paul Ryan could win after this sort of bullshit.
>>70139686
They don't think it matters.
>>70133896
I'm in the running to be an unbound delegate in Colorado, delegates are just normal people who go to the state convention
>>70131403
Yes... but the GOP establishment is going to make it a battle for every delegate.
Wisconsin will be seen as proof that their StopTrump campaign is working, and so they'll redouble their efforts in the upcoming primaries.
Expect attacks against Trump to get even nastier the next month.
>>70137337
Beautiful!
>>70142073
>>70131803
I won't scatter your ashes to the heartless sea...
>>70142132
Not as funny now that he's actually out...
>>70142164
>>70142131
>>70142202
>>70130790
In any normal scenario one of the other two candidates would let go and support him
But since the right in america doesn't actually want to rule but just wants to bitch for a wage they'll try all they can to stop him
>>70130790
non US-fag here who thinks American politics are more relevant than Danish politics - even for Denmark:
Why is Kasich still in the race if there's no way for him to win the nomination? Is it just to piss on the other candidates so that the Republican Party may nominate someone entirely else? Isn't it kind of foul play?
>>70142290
Yes. The man is being backed with kike shekels, so he can just fuck shit up.
With how important this election is I can't believe the GOP is fucking around like this
Funny that you see them embracing identity politics when it suits them
A vote for anyone but Trump is a vote for Hillary.
There is note even a tiny chance that anyone but Trump could win against Hillary. Absolutely none. Trump supporters are not going to vote for any republican other than Trump. If he loses the nomination, Republicans lose the election. With Trump, republicans have a fair chance of beating Hillary. She's extremely unpopular and carries a huge baggage of dirt with her that Trump won't be afraid to talk about and point out, unlike Hernie. Trump already is under heave siege 24/7, what could Hillary possibly say or do to him what hasn't been tried yet? On other hand, Trump would expose Hillary for the dishonest, shrill crook that she is.
>>70130790
I just did the math too, Trump can't beat Hillary.
>>70142290
Kasich is there to force a contested convention. They know Trump will be a handfull of delegates from or over 1237 and they want to make sure its under 1237
>>70142290
he still can get the nomination in brokered convention
they'll just vote to scrap the 8 states rule
>>70142547
You forget one thing, Bernie supporters are gonna jump in Trump boat after clinton's nomination ((Since sanders said he won't run third party.)
>>70142547
Poll from July in 2012 had Romney beating Obama
>>70143350
Bernie sanders supporters aren't enough and the majority of them won't even vote for him. In fact, most of them will vote for hillary clinton
>>70131403
I've got a simulation using existing and best guess polling numbers for all the remaining states. My simulation gives Trump a 20% chance of winning the 1237. That's assuming he gets around 70 of the 81 NY district delegates, 140 of the 159 California delegates, and 15 or so unbound delegates. If no unbound delegates vote Trump, it drops below 5%.
Trump can win if he seriously ups his game, or gets incredibly lucky. I'm still hoping National Enquirer finds more dirt on the Cruz Sex Scandal, but I'm not holding my breath.
>>70143354
One poll doesn't trump thousands of polls
That's not how statistics work. For example, there was one poll that said Trump would win Wisconsin when every other poll had him down significantly versus Cruz.
Even if Trump gets 1237 delegates, the party can still decide to change the rules and nominate whoever they want to, right?
>>70144030
Technically they could, but doing so would be outright suicidal.
>>70130790
This is a pivotal moment in Trump's campaign. He needs to extend an olive branch to Cruz and convince Cruz to join his team and not the GOPs. The GOP hates Cruz as well, Cruz might get some brownie points for tanking Trump, but he lost the nomination. If Trump and Cruz can find common ground and Trump offers Cruz something, then Trump can almost guarantee a win. The sooner this happens the better both of their chances are
THREAD THEME
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0YSadgCdwo
>>70143563
What characterize Sanders supporters? 3 Things mostly: Overtaxed (I include loans.) Anti-Establishement and Unsatisfied with the current situation.
Trump
-Simpler taxes and less administration (Point 1)
-Is not an establishemsnt candidate (Point 2)
-Wants To make america great again (Point 3)
Clinton
-Will "Keep doing what obama was doing" (Point 1 and 3)
-Is from the establishement (Point 2)
-In her words "We don't need to make america great again, America never STOPPED being great!" (Point 3)
So you were saying?
>>70144190
Why would Cruz accept an olive branch, when he's on track to derail Trump's delegate majority and steal all his delegates in the second vote?
Unless Trump can mobilize his voters against the GOP for a long term takeover, Cruz is probably in the best place he could hope for. He's in good with the GOP establishment, and he's got a real shot at the presidency.
>>70130790
NY here, I'm volunteering for the Don
>>70144609
>and he's got a real shot at the presidency.
You mean the nomination
He has no shot in the GE
>>70137337
holy shit, trump is more badass than bruce wayne in BvS
>>70144909
Hillary is an incredibly weak candidate. Even Cruz has a chance at beating her.
His problem is that his only chance at the Republican nomination is stealing it at the second or third vote. That would piss off Trump voters.
If Trump isn't nominated, it'll be a real shit show of a general election. A Democratic nominee who barely beat a geriatric socialist Jew, and a Republican nominee who literally stole the nomination.
>>70144263
Your logic doesn't even make sense with incredibly stupid hasty generalizations, and the statistics show it. Only 1 and 4 Sanders supporters will not back Hillary. Every point you made is just shitposting and is just cringe-worthy. I'm not going to even reply to you anymore - this is pathetic.
>>70145340
>>70131803
POO
>>70143646
Cali is winner takes all dumb nuts
>>70145359
It'll hardly be a shit show. Cruz will get absolutely decimated once the media changes direction. Seriously they have so much shit they can attack Cruz on disregarding him stealing the nomination its not even funny.
Want to know why the media hasn't picked up on the "Cruz sex scandal"? Its because right now it lets trump win, hold on to it in till after the nomination and then Hilary gets the free ride.
>>70146711
Cruzbots can't see the big picture
They only care about feeling sanctimonious voting for a "true conservative"
>>70146571
Trying this hard to be Aussie.
>>70137337
kek, then why did he run in 2000?
>>70146982
Honestly Cruz is fine if he could win, but the moment he can no longer get the required delegates(aka after new york), he needs to get out.
Also most cruz supporters don't even like him, its literally a vote for "notTrump". I bet if you actually asked why they are voting 40-50% of Cruz supporters are voting because "I don't like Trump", hell most probably can't name 3-4 policies that Cruz supports.
Kasich and Cruz will do whatever their donor class handlers tell them to do. They are obedient employees.
They will probably tell them to stay in and force the contested convention.
>>70143646
Can you upload that simulation and link it?
a reminder.
Trump would not like any of the Snakes besides Solidus.
They are all losers who got caught multiple times. low energy.
>Trump needs 59% of delegates to win convention's first vote
How many primaries are left?
How many of them are winner take all?
Which primaries does Trump look like he's going to win?
Seems like he'll win NY, PA and California - which are winner take all states right? Who cares if he needs 59% of the delegates remaining - these wins will get him 100% of the delegates from said states. Are there other primaries coming up that will hurt his chances?
>>70147336
Just fuckin around. Jews where up to no good back then too. Tried to create a third party back then.
>>70140652
Let us know if anyone threatens you.
>>70149298
The Percentage drops back to 53% if he wins big in New York
>>70150224
Can do. Honestly I will probably be the one threatening Cruz fags on friday
aren't you all a bit young to talk about politics
just play videogames and let others vote Sanders
>>70150672
>>70149183
Solidus was a fucking hero.
>>70130790
Excuse me, does Bernie have a chance?
>>70130790
>>Cruz has around 502 delegates now, meaning Cruz needs around 735 delegates.
Cruz and / or Kasich don't need any fucking delegates, you degenerates.
They will get the Republican nomination on a defwin because the only way the Republican party would *consider* giving Drumpf the nomination is IF he gets ALL the votes.
But he won't, so they can give it to Cruz or Kasich with no regrets.
>>70130790
Eh I was looking for the primary results and thought exactly the same thing.
What really is a brokered convention in practical ,not legals terms. From what i got it's basically a contestation of a candidate claim to be the GOP candidate but I still fail to see how they can back that up
>>70130790
>Will Cruz be like Kasich by trying to steal delegates for a brokered convention? Or will he drop out?
Of course he's not going to drop out.
He already knows there's virtually no chance of him getting the nomination.
He's banking on a convention just as much as Kasich is.
