I did some narrow simulations using polls, geographical data (very important), betting markets and some strong assumptions.
The assumptions are:
- Rubio loses Florida and drops out March 15.
- Kasich drops out March 15 IF he loses Ohio; Kasich drops out until April 5 (Wisconsin) IF he wins Ohio
- After the field is Cruz vs. Trump, Cruz has generally the edge (50%+), except in states where Trump is predicted to do very well or states that are geographically advantageous for Trump.
- Few unpledged delegates will prefer Trump over Cruz.
It goes like this: The key states with pledged delagetes will be Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana. Pennsylvania will be also important with wreid rules and a bunch of unpledged delegates.
People are paying a lot of attention to states like New York, California, Florida.... but honestly, in a narrow simulation these can be assumed Trump/Cruz/Trump (for example).
Results:
- In ALL of my 26 scenarios we go to a Brokered Convention.
- In 12 of them Cruz leads Trump, in 14 Trump leads Cruz.
- If Kasich wins Ohio, this is good news for Cruz, but not great (slightly increases the chances of finishing above trump, still goes to brokered convention).
Michigan: Trump (not prediction)
Mississipi: Trump (not prediction)
Idaho: Cruz (not prediction)
Hawaii: Trump (not prediction)
U.S. Virgin Islands: Rubio
DC: Trump/Kasich/Rubio
Guam: Rubio
Florida: Trump
**Illinois: Cruz/Trump**
Missouri: Cruz
Northem Mariana Islands: Rubio
North Carolina: Trump
**Ohio: Kasich/Trump** [RUBIO DROPS]
American Samoa: Kasich/Trump
Arizona: Cruz
Utah: Cruz
**Wisconsin: Cruz/Trump** [KASICH DROPS]
New York: Trump
Connecticut: Trump
Delaware: Trump
Maryland: Trump
Pennsylvania: (Weird delegate allocation rules)
Rhode Island: Trump
**Indiana: Cruz/Trump**
Nebraska: Cruz
West Virginia: Trump
Oregon: Cruz
Washington: Cruz
California: Cruz
Montana: Cruz
New Jersey: Trump
New Mexico: Cruz
South Dakota: Cruz
________________
I assumed a lot of things to reach these results - if anyone believes a called an specific state to Cruz or Trump (or anyone) wrongly, you might be right.
________________
Now, the question is, if we go to a brokered convention, the delegates will move to Cruz or to Trump after the first voting round? How much who is ahead will determine this? I believe that a lot. If Cruz is ahead he is probably going to get the support from the party. If Trump is ahead, who knows. In this sense, given the balance in the simulations between Cruz and Trump and given the expectations of Trump being the nominee - I would call my results good news for Cruz.
________________
TL;DR: There is a *high probability* of a brokered convention. It is hard to predict who will be ahead (Cruz or Trump). This is good news for Cruz.
I am reviewing my math, I'll change if i find any big mistakes.
Just using this communist chick to self-bump.
If there's a brokered convention, neither Cruz nor Trump wins. There's a reason both of them are doing all they can to keep it from going to a brokered convention—it would hand the nomination to Kasich or Romney, the only people who haven't been utterly obliterated this election cycle.
>>66751935
You need to win at least 8 states to be the nominee. It is a rule. Romney, Rubio and Kasich are out.
>>66750611
No shot illinois goes Cruz. People here resist evangelicals
>>66750611
Factor in probable delegate numbers and you'll see Trump wins by a YUGE MAJORITY.
>>66751789
I'd destroy that pussy in the name of capitalism and freedom.
>>66753832
The GOP can change the convention rules right before voting, hue. They can easily get rid of the requirement, just like they easily added the requirement in 2012 right before voting to screw over Ron Paul.
>>66753832
That is not the rule, the rule is needing to have won enough states AND get required delegates. In a brokered convention anyone can win literally as long as they are republican.
>>66754408
Actually, the first ballot rule was to block Ron Paul trying something very pathetic that would have turned the convention into a zoo. Rule 40c was to make sure that no assclown without a prayer of winning ever think of trying some other procedural end-run around the primary process again.
>>66754282
In proportional/winner-takes-msot contests? I did, I'm not posting all numbers thought.
>>66754408
But do you honestly believe they would give the nomination to someone without any support from voters at all?
The GOP destroys itself if Trump wins and doesn't let him run.
It's a literal suicide move on their part.
>>66754269
He has 15% on PredictWise, Trump 73%.
Geographically Illionois is in the very center of the Trump/Cruz line. Hard to predict.
>>66754602
it depends how the GOP thinks. Long term, this would destroy the party completely literally. Short term, it would lose the election as republican turnout would be horrible and Trump would probably run 3rd party since brokered convention would be a dirty dirty trick the RNC would have to play.
Any way you deal it, it's death to the RNC for any brokered convention. It just depends on if the establishment wants to give up power for 4-8 years.
Your results interest me. All other /pol/ threads say that if Trump stays on track he'll get the majority no problem. What's missing in either your predictions or theres?
>>66754408
It is not the rule he is mistaken. To win you need the number of states and delegates required to win but in a brokered convention you just need to be republican and nothing else. Jeb bush could be selected as nominee or even Mitt Romney.
Trump relies on the fact that such a decision would not go over well with people who voted in the primariss and would be too much if a risk to potentially kill the party that they would end up not doing that.
>>66754602
That is why the GOP hopes someone like Rubio ir Kasich wins enough delegates and states to justify it. But that will not happen so my bet is that Trump will win a brokered convention. I know what I am talking about, the talking heads wont say this for obvious reasons. They still "hope" or are dumb.
Only other plausible scenario is they chose Ted but Kasich and Rubio or even Mitt and Jeb, will never happen.
>>66754801
I am making some strong assumptions. And I am taking geographical results very seriously - the west is all Cruz probably, and he is rising strongly even with Rubio and Kasich in the race.
Trump will have a hard time winning more than 1237 delegates after they drop out - he can only expect to win in the east after that.
>>66754687
Pretty much. I've been telling people that the brokered convention talk is just an all-purpose scold to encourage the demoralized supporters of the also-ran candidates to go out and vote just in case Trump could have been stopped, or had a major stumble.
>>66754803
This is the rule fuckhead. It is not excepted in the case of a brokered convention.
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall
demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of
the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of
Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of
the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the
secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to
this rule and the established order of business.
Kasich will not drop out.
He has no incentive to, he's only in it now for the chance of being chosen as the candidate at a brokered convention or to be chosen as VP for any of the other three.
>>66754954
>>66754801
Also, there are some territories with few delegates that I assumed Rubio wins, but I honestly have no idea, either way, it is not enough to avoid a brokered convetion.
Cruz best hope is to upset Trump in the east somehow or win in a brokered convention.
Trump's best hope is for Rubio and Kasich to stay much longer than I predicted.
>>66755170
If that happens, it is great news for Trump.
>>66755187
>Trump's best hope is for Rubio and Kasich to stay much longer than I predicted.
The fact that you're assuming potential Rubio/Kasich voters will go 100% for Cruz if those two drop out is pretty idiotic. Cruz is too much of a Bible-thumping Conservative for either Kasich or Rubio voters.
>>66754801
His geography based assumptions don't line up with the actual demographics.
Your predictions of doom following a stolen brokered convention are awfully optimistic. 4-8 years would be nothing to give up. We're talking about a generation or two.
The GOP doesn't focus on individual races, so losing the Presidency in a big messy way would also cost a huge number of Republicans their down ballot races as turn out plunged. Republicans would lose the House and the Senate. That's insta-passage for a new Democrat Amnesty.
Suddenly, we have 30 million new welfare sucking Democrat voters. Now, it'll take a minute to get them all voting, but the Democrats will have that time since the GOP will still be in complete disarray.
>>66755376
This. A plurality of Jeb voters went to Trump.
>>66755376
There is no such assumption, if I assumed that Cruz would win the whole east (except NY) and west too, and would win outright.
That is not the case. I am assuming a majority of those voters goes to Cruz. Nationally something aprox. 60% Cruz, 40% Trump.
>>66754957
>insults
LEARN HOW
TO READ ENGLISH YOU FUCKING RETARDED FAT ANERICAN PIECE OF SHIT YOUR PEOPLE ARE
SO FUCKING DUMB AND FAT AND SOON HALF YOU RETARDS WILL CHOP YOUR PENISES OFF TRYING TO PRETEND YOU DO NOT TAKE IT
UP THE ASS
the
Rule is.
Need 8 states and required nr of delegates. In a case where no one gets that then they can
Nominate anyone
MOTHER FUCKER.
Trump 2016!
>>66755467
>I am assuming a majority of those voters goes to Cruz
Have you compared Kasich/Rubio policies with that of Cruz? 60% Cruz? Jesus Christ, mate. Kasich is basically a male Hillary and Rubio isn't much better. I give Cruz a total of 10-15% of their cumulative support at best, and it's mostly people who refuse to vote Trump out of principle than people who'd support Cruz.
>>66750543
The only thing I agree with is a high probability of a brokered convention.
>>66755571
Would you like to cite the rule? I cited mine. It's very clear, and articles have already been written about when they started threatening to bring in Romney.
>>66755665
It is the rule you just added your own fucking exception to it PULLED FROM YOUR
MOTHETFUCKING ASS
to be the nominee the rule was as cited.
In case of failure to achieve that
IT BECOMES A BROKERED CONVENTION
And you fucking dumb fat cunt cite what rule?
Lol just fucking die you fat slobby semen of cheetoes.
>>66755610
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/272170-poll-trump-loses-head-to-head-vs-cruz-rubio
"But in hypothetical one-on-one match-ups with Cruz and Rubio, Trump loses. Cruz leads Trump 54 to 41 percent, and Rubio leads the outspoken businessman 51 to 45 percent."
So, it is 54-41, according to polls. And I believe it would be even more with time given Cruz winning momentum after the drop out (and current rising in polls)
>>66755467
Cruz won't carry any blue states. Rubio can carry with them Democrat chaos voters, like Minnesota, but Cruz cannot.
If you're assuming the country is already split 60/40 in favor of Cruz then your conclusion was already baked in.
>>66755817
Dude, look at the main post, Cruz isn't carrying most of the blue states, only in the west.
Get the required delegates and state wins
If no one gets that it becomes a brokered convention and each state can vote for any other republican and it
Does
NOT MATTER IF THAT NOMINEE HAS WON ENOUGH STATES AND DELEGATES BEFOREHAND
BECAUSE NOW THEY CAN GIVE WHATEVER CANDIDATE THAT AMOUNT OF DELEGATES AND STATE WINS
the end.
Does the GOP even care about the presidency
it's nice to have but the party still makes money in local politics
>>66755812
>the hill
>1v1 hypothetical polls
>same kind of polls that have Hernie beating Shillary
>>66755781
Jesus sven, clam the fuck down, What's up with you today? Did Ahmed not alot you to lick his cum out of your wife's cunt?
>>66755781
What the fuck is wrong with you? I just posted Rule 40(b). It doesn't say anything about the rules for being a considered candidate going out the window in case of a brokered convention.
It's actually very specific. If no one wins the first round of voting, everyone keeps voting until someone does win. There is no point in this process where new candidates are allowed to add their names who failed to pass the standard set in Rule 40(b).
If they aren't a valid candidate on the first ballot, they will not be on the ballot to become the nominee.
>>66755890
But with Trump and Cruz, both with more than 900 delegates (almost all my results end like this, except 2 out of 26), do you think they would say "oh fuck them, give it to Rubio". No way the Republican party would be that dumb - complete suicide.
>>66755890
This is not the rules. Read again fucko.
>Political science professor predicts a 97-99% probability Trump wins the nomination
>Some random monkey in Brazil predicts a 0% chance Trump wins the nomination
WELL THAT SETTLES IT, BOYS
PACK IT UP, EVERYBODY GO HOME
>>66756005
fuck off your flag is just a giant neon sign blinking
>retard
Everywhere.
>>66756006
You make shit up again and fail to comprehend your own language lmao
They can pick anyone that is eligible to be candidate for nomination and those have nothing to do with having to have won a single FUCKING PRIMARY.
Anyway. No point wasting time on you because facts are facts and even mainstream media knows this despite usually being quite dumb.
Go on arguing stupidity though you fat fucking pig.
Trump will win btw, bye.
>>66755949
It is actually a Washington Post poll.
Cruz will win as Republicans a re going to push for a Hispanic Obama.
>>66756184
I've literally posted the entire relevant section of the convention rules. You are full of shit.
see >>66756077
>>66756190
Doesn't change the fact that hypothetical polls have never, nor will ever, be remotely accurate.
>>66756077
>does not understand that last rule does not require the following to be met
>8 states and the delegates to win which would negate the need..
FOR A
BROKERED CONVENTION
REEEEEEEEEE YOU ARE SO FUCKING
DUMB I AM OUT OUT I WILL NEVER REPLY TO AMERICAN FLAGS AGAIN
>>66756177
HUEUHEHEUHEUHEUH
Trump can win, I am just saying it will not be as easy as it looks. In fact, he must either upset Cruz in some states or pray for Rubio and Kasich to stay a lot longer than what makes sense.
When this election began, people were talking about Walker and Jeb - I was predicting Rubio and Cruz (no one predicted Trump).
>>66750611
Just a small (not very significant) edit:
U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam: ??? (but not many delegates anyway, does not change any of the projections)
What's to stop the GOP to send people to rig polls for Donald Trump and pointing at them as proof that Trump[ is cheating? They should be able to do it easily and the people who don't like Trump will eat it up.
>>66754803
I really hope this is true desu
>>66755454
He is like the highlander or a vampire committing diablerie
If Trump and Cruz are all that's left by the time it reaches CA, I'm just going to check out and not vote in either the primary or the general. Obviously we live in a country of adults who far surpass the intellectually apathetic and retarded who vote for these children in primaries, and I'd rather not vote for Hillary.
I wonder what percentage will not vote in later states if a viable candidate is not available?
>>66755395
>That's insta-passage for a new Democrat Amnesty
>Amnesty
It's not fucking amnesty! If you kidnap someone, you have to release him before you get amnesty on the charges.
Call it this: "invasion licence (often euphemised as 'amnesty')"
>>66750543
This is ridiculous. Cruz's best days are being him. He has not chance in the north east. No chance in California, Florida, Ohio, Jew york.
Cruz has won nothing of significance. The states he won are unimportant states. Cruz can't do it and if trump dropped dead today and then kasich died after. Cruz woul win and be annihilated by Hillary come November. You can find a poll that says otherwise but people who are retarded know these early polls are completely shit and unreliable at best. It's universally accepted Cruz gets btfo by hillary
>>66756536
Its cute seeing you take the moral high ground as you sit there posting on the most immature website on the internet in the most juvenile political forum in the entire world. Even so, you have the audacity to thumb your nose at them and call them children.
>>66756985
Idaho is in the north east. He won today.
He is leading polls in California, with the field clear he wins there for sure.
About Hillary, yes, she is strong agains Cruz - but Trump is even weaker than him.
>>66757607
Oops North west.
Read wrong.>>66756985
Yes he has no chance in the north east - the predictions take that in account (look)>>66750611
