http://www.mediaite.com/online/dear-nate-silver-the-media-and-the-gop-should-absolutely-be-freaking-out-about-trumps-poll-numbers/
>Silver is mostly wrong about Trump’s chances of winning the nomination, but more importantly he discounts the very real impact that Trump will have on the ultimate outcome of the election even if he is simply able to remain viable all the way to the GOP convention, which I now believe is at least likely, if not a near certainty.
>The basic premise behind Silver’s argument is that, despite months of polling data strongly suggesting otherwise, Trump doesn’t “own” his 20-35% of the GOP electorate and that, even if he does, this won’t be enough for him to be the definitive factor in the race. Silver is wrong on both of these counts.
>First, where is the evidence that Trump’s support is “soft”? Not only has his 20-35% remained remarkably consistent in both state and national polls for a incredible amount of time (actually rebounding to sometimes even higher levels after slight declines), but it has withstood numerous episodes which would have easily knocked a normal Republican totally out of the race.
>The record television ratings of the debates and of his individual appearances, along with his extraordinary crowds throughout the country, show that this is not a situation remotely analogous to past GOP frontrunners who have faded fast once the actual voting began. Because there is, for better or worse, no one else anything like him, his supporters are simply not going anywhere else (unless he is revealed to be just a magician with no real magic; more on that momentarily). In short, once you have had Trump, you can never go back to a normal politician.
once you go Trump, you never go stump.
>>56756619
Nate is a fucking idiot who didn't get the memo... ITS 2015!
>>56756619
good
>literal who jew gets lucky a couple of times
>he's now the election guru
>>56756619
Nate Silver made the same mistake that he was made famous for pointing out; he allowed punditry to skew his statistical arguments and he is making the same mistakes he accused his opponents of in 08 and 12.
Nate isn't really alone in this, political consultants and quants are sticking to traditional political science methodology and even when they have been proven wrong every step of the way.
If you listened to traditional wisdom you would have believed that Trump will not announce, ok we were wrong but Trump won't file his financials, ok we were wrong but Trump will drop when he loses business from NBC and Macy's, ok we were wrong but Trump will not make it to the first debate, ok we were wrong but Trump will not be polling over a ceiling of 10%, ok we were wrong but Trump will burn out by the end of the summer, ok we were wrong but Trump will not be the frontrunner, ok we were wrong but he will lose the lead shortly after people burn out, ok we were wrong but Trump will not be the Republican nominee for President
Nate would rather double down again that admit he has no fucking idea because Trump does not adhere to traditional campaign wisdom.
>>56758441
First they ignore you.
Than they laugh at you.
Then they fight you.
Then you win.
>>56758441
lets not forget that when he becomes the nominee they'll start saying he wont beat Hillary even when the polls say he has double her numbers.
Trump is William Jennings Bryan-tier. A one issue populist candidate (despite trying to diversify people support Trump because of one thing: immigration) that electrifies his supporters but has 0 chance of winning in a general election. And like Bryan he makes buffoon remarks.
>>56758919
If you are using polling you have to go by the numbers and can't get into "unskewing" rather than just aggregating results. Silver was successful when he stuck to just aggregate polling and his previous forecasts show that methodology works.
He fucked up by going into the poll results and going "ok this 20% isn't a real 20% we should not count it in our models". He is doing the same shit he accused other's of and is omitting data because it appears irrational to him from a political science perspective.
I don't even hate Nate Silver because I am familiar with the field of statistice and he has made sound arguments in the past but he has let the 538 blog go to his head and cloud his judgement.
>>56759238
his one issue is "make america great again"
shillary's one issue is "give me shekels and power goyim"
i think Trump has a pretty good fucking shot at this.
>>56759238
>but has 0 chance of winning
No Trump clearly has a non-zero chance of winning. I agree it's a small chance but you are making a partisan argument if you believe it is zero and not non-zero.
>>56759419
you seem to misunderstand me sir
im saying after the nomination, when Trump has a yuuge margin over Hillary, the media will still deny the obvious reality.
>>56758441
Dead on. Nate is living in the past two cycles, and is rejecting the reality of candidate Trump.
Trump is a black swan anti fragile candidate. He's a charismatic media savvy billionaire, the more you hit him the stronger he becomes.
The man is living in denial. Trump ended his credibility.
>>56759687
No I understood you I was just explaining the rationale that would be used for that argument.
>>56759238
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/252825-poll-trump-beats-hillary-head-to-head
>The poll by SurveyUSA finds that matched up directly, Trump garners 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/fl-trump-leads-florida-poll-20151118-story.html
>Trump leads Clinton by 8.7 points in Florida, 49.2 percent to 40.5 percent.
It's 2015 and he thinks people don't understand that whatever a Jew says is propaganda?
Come on.
Nate Silver is a SJW kek. He acts like he's all about numbers but he never talks about how the gender wage gap is BS when he interviewed Sheryl Jewberg.
>>56759510
Okay, make it very low but non-zero.
>>56759498
"make America great again" is not an issue, it's a vague promise. Fucking Bernie Sanders talks the same way and his stance on the issues couldn't be more different.
Look I support increased immigration restrictions as well. The country really needs to deal with immigration. Especially unskilled immigration from Latin America. But letting Trump, a total buffoon, be the representative for this side of the issue is suicide. If he manages to get nominated the Republicans will get crushed in the general election. And just like with Bryan if he manages to install "Trumpism" as a mainstay of the Right in America the party could be out of power for decades.
Let me put it to you another way. When is the last time a true populist like Trump won the presidency? It has never happened.
>>56759914
i think once people start thinking Trump will actually beat Hillary, his poll numbers will skyrocket.
really, the biggest thing holding him back is that the conservative base thinks he can't win the general election. hell, the establishment doesn't even think he can win the general election and that's the only reason they want him out.
>>56760054
Nate Silver is best when he's talking about aggregating data and making forecasts of that data. His first major success was around a system for handicapping high school athletes for baseball recruitment.
Nate got into politics and was successful at first because he shied away from politics and was just doing data aggregation and forecasting but after the NYT gave him a blog which morphed into a political brand he lost touch and became more worried about his data outcomes matching his politics rather than doing it apolitically like when he was an outsider.
>>56760451
The same fucktards who keep predicting his demise in the primaries predict he can't win the general? They've been so wrong so far that there is absolutely no reason to take their prediction here seriously.
BTW, Nate is living in denial right now.
>>56756619
No lie I was listening to this talk radio show the other night called the John and Leah show it had the author of this article John Ziegler babbling for over an hour about how much his marriage is in ruins he hasn't had sex with his wife in four years and how he wants to have another kid with his wife in order to save the marriage but he only wants to have a daughter. He's afraid of having a white male for a son but he would be interested in having his wife inseminated by a black man if it would give him a little mulatto son.
It was the weirdest fucking thing I've ever heard. He kept saying he wants a black guy to impregnate his wife.
>>56760214
he talks about more stuff than immigration
watch his rallies, he only brings up the illegals and the wall like once or twice per rally.
he talks about the terrible trade deals we have more than he does immigration.
>Trump, a total buffoon
calling someone who has made an international real estate empire worth several billion dollars a buffoon, frankly only reflects poorly on you.
>Let me put it to you another way. When is the last time a true populist like Trump won the presidency? It has never happened.
Teddy Roosevelt
hell FDR could even be argued to have been a populist and he won one of the largest landslides in US history
and Bryan was an autistic idiot that campaigned for alcohol prohibition, women's suffrage, and other stupid shit like the silver dollar and when it came to legal practice, he kept jumping back to the bible in desperation
not to mention the fact that Bryan thought rich people were evil.
Bryan didn't lose because of populism, he lost because he was an inept idiot.
hey /pol/, currently in an argument with some liberal chick. She claims Trump lied about his statistics he recently tweeted saying black people commit a lot of crime. She said
"Wrong, the racist tweet by Donald Trump used the source, "Crime Statistics Bureau - San Francisco", and that does not exist! It's in the land of Narnia! If you are saying it's real then what's their website, or physical address?
The racist tweet said the statistics were done in 2015, and the FBI crime statistics for 2015 have not even been published yet!
This is a link the the FBI stats for 2014, and they are very different from Trump's tweet. (NOTE: add a dot in between "fbi" and "gov" at the beginning of the address. YouTube thinks it's spam if I post a complete link.)
fbi gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/expanded-homicide-data/expanded_homicide_data_table_6_murder_race_and_sex_of_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2014.xls"
Is she right?
>>56761479
>The same fucktards who keep predicting his demise in the primaries predict he can't win the general?
unfortunately there's more idiots that think he can't win the general election than there are idiots who think he can't win the primaries
one of two things is gonna happen
either trump will convince the GOP he can actually beat Hillary and they'll start throwing their full support behind him, or he'll get the nomination and the GOP will be forced to throw its full support behind him.
once he gets the establishment okay, he'll be even more unstoppable than he is now.
>>56761595
The memes are real.
>>56761770
well for starters, it was a retweeted image
secondly, yes it was slightly exaggerated, but the real stats are at 90% so saying they're at 97% isn't that big a difference
>YouTube thinks it's spam if I post a complete link.
>youtube
what?
The problem for Trump, as Nate sees it, is that he is polarizing WITHIN the GOP. Meaning that even if he gets the nomination (he wont), half the party stays home and the Democrats hate him too much to let him win.
There is something to be said for being the 'mainstream' candidate who can appeal to the greatest number of people.
>>56762071
>once he gets the establishment okay
What makes you think this will happen? Hasn't the establishment shown itself more concerned with image and never compromising even at the cost of losing?
I believe one of the articles Nate Silver wrote was talking about the 6 hurdles Trump has to go through. The one he predicted would be the most difficult is the end of the primary and the establishment trying to stump Trump.
I'm not saying Silver is perfect, but I think he's correct. Trump's biggest problem isn't popularity, it's having the establishment firmly stuck against him, and they may be stubborn and drag out the primary and leave too little time to solidify the base after a long drawn out bloody primary for whoever wins the race.
>>56757951
>A couple times
>Correctly predicted every single election last cycle
>No guy, Nate Silver is just dumb, Romney is gonna sweep!
>>56762312
Some bitch I know from Facebook attacking my Youtube claiming I am racist.
I wonder if Nate Silver isn't being told to use his credibility to try to destroy Trump's chances.
Or maybe he is personally wanting Trump out.
Regardless he is making mistakes by assuming numbers aren't solid enough
>>56763112
This is how delusional Trump supporters are.. everything must be part of some grand conspiracy, kek.
>>56761770
Cunningham's Law:
If you quote a wrong statistic on the Internet, someone will quote the real one.
He was baiting the Media into quoting the real black on black crime rate.
>>56760451
It's not that the establishment doesn't think Trump can win the general, it is that they actively don't want him to win.
Trump could, and probably already jas, shaken up the Republican base and ruined much of the power grabs and plans.
Ultimately, Trump will push the GOP into necessary reform, but it will involve removing the treasonous old guard, which is why they don't want him to succeed.
>>56763112
Nate has a political brand with FiveThirtyEight and a staff of political writers at this point. He's become too intertwined with what he's trying to objectively do data analysis on and is showing a bias by discounting Trump's support from models completely because he believes it is irrelevant data to the election. Nate is treading into the same territory he has bashed others for mercilessly.
>>56763668
You used some big words but didn't actually make any sense.
Want to try that again?
>>56762433
most of the establishment that is against him, is against him because they think he's too big of a risk for this election. if trump can convince these people that he not only has the ability to beat Hillary, but would do so in a landslide, than they will sing to a completely different tune they've been singing to.
there is however a faction within the GOP that hates him just because of who he is, but they don't really hold that much influence since all they've been good for is alienating the republican base.
most of the establishment would rather beat the democrats by a narrow margin this election than risk tossing in a wildcard like trump. the real problem is they think wet noodles like Yeb could actually win.
when Trump comes out on top of this new campaign from the GOP to stump him, i think a lot of them are going to switch over to his camp.
>>56762398
>even if he gets the nomination (he wont)
>the frontrunner who's held the lead for 5 months and shows no signs of slowing down, won't win the nomination
are we still playing denial games?
>>56763504
no a good chunk of the establishment thinks he can't win.
they see the headlines calling him every name in the book and think it will bring him down just like it brought every other republican candidate down in the past, so they try to distance themselves and the party from him. once the realize that the name calling doesn't actually work on him, they'll start getting behind his message.
they're just too keked right now to see the forest for the trees
that isn't to say that there's not a sizable part of the GOP establishment that is legitimately pissed at him for fucking up their plans.
i just don't think they're in the majority.
>>56763504
>Trump could, and probably already jas, shaken up the Republican base and ruined much of the power grabs and plans.
Yeb clearly thought the primary was going to be a lot easier than it's been. His tantrum has been the single best thing about this primary, "There are a lot of other cool things I could be doing right now besides running for president. Just vote for Trump!"
>>56763816
>the real problem is they think wet noodles like Yeb could actually win.
No, they've realized Yeb is an unmitigated failure. They're pushing Rubio hard because the masses have been properly conditioned with him. He has the right personality and is properly photogenic enough. You can tell because they're doing the same thing they did last year, talking about his 'surging 12%' and finding any reason to mention him.
>>56763729
He made perfect sense, not his fault your small aussie brain couldn't understand
JUST
>>56763816
>are we still playing denial games?
No, it's quite simple. While he has 25 percent steady support, he also has 75 percent of Republicans NOT voting for Trump and solidly so.
This is a big problem.
The issue is that if you're someone like Cruz, you might only have 10 percent of the vote, but most people will fall in behind you if you get the nomination, they don't hate you even if they're not that excited by you. Trump's problem is that he is polarizing, you either love him or hate him and right now the vast majority hate him.
Trump’s overall favorability ratings are miserable, about 30 percent favorable and 60 percent unfavorable, and they haven’t improved (whatever gains he’s made among Republicans have been offset by his declines among independents and Democrats). To some extent, the 30 percent may like Trump precisely because they know the 60 percent don’t like him. More power to the 30 percent: I have plenty of my own issues with the political establishment. But running a campaign that caters to (for lack of a better term) contrarians is exactly how you ensure that you’ll never reach a majority.
>>56764035
>No, they've realized Yeb is an unmitigated failure.
many of them have not gotten the memo yet
and Rubio is still a wet noodle, just a much sweatier wet noodle
and in semi-related news, Trump is beating his two main competitors by 14%
>>56763729
What part did you not understand? I have made my point clear in the thread Nate Silver is great when he does data and polling aggregation but recently has used political rationale to discount poll results for Trump. I do not think he is being objective by skewing the data to fit the conclusion rather than drawing a conclusion from the aggregate polling data.
I'm actually very familiar with Silver's work and respect him as a statistician but I think he's being silly because he won't just acknowledge Trump has run counter to traditional primary election methodology and has already broken through polling lines that in the summer were very unlikely.>>56763729
>>56764214
>he also has 75 percent of Republicans NOT voting for Trump and solidly so.
only about a third of republican voters dont want him as nominee, and much of that is because they think he cant win in the general election.
and see pic in >>56764282
its almost impossible for him to lose the nomination at this point.
>>56756619
The Presidential Elections are never about politics, it's about likability. And Trump makes himself really likable.
>>56764435
>its almost impossible for him to lose the nomination at this point.
I don't agree with that at all. Just because Silver is wrong in discounting the non-zero possibility that Trump can win doesn't mean Trump has great odds of securing the nomination.
Trump does have a low chance of securing the primary even with the numbers he's pulling. His biggest challenge will be securing delegates and the risk of a brokered convention that will do anything to keep him out. Trump has come very far and defied all expectations he had but securing delegates will be the biggest challenge he will face in this entire process since for all practical purposes the delegates ARE the Republican Party.
>>56764870
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/11/25/yougov-poll-trump-leads-rubio-and-cruz-head-to-head-by-double-digits/
in head-to-head polling, Trump gets 57% to both Cruz and Rubio each getting 43%
there's nothing in there about Carson, but we can assume results would be nearly the same.
his chance to win the nomination is not low.
>>56764199
JET FUEL
>>56765279
You are showing me a head to head poll and I was talking about delegates.
>Will Donald Trump be able to secure enough delegates for the Republican nomination
This is the million dollar question if he will get the nomination or not.
> The presidential race for the Republican nomination is not about polls or a national race. It is a state-by-state contest for 2,470 delegates. To be the party nominee, a candidate must have 50 percent plus 1 of the delegates — 1,236 delegates — to win.
> The contests in each state are conducted under that state party’s rules. There is also continual oversight from the Republican National Party’s committee rules.
The rules for the delegate process are written in a way that heavily favors party favorites and by design is difficult for someone the party does not want to hijack. You will have rules bent, strategic voting by delegates and even outright collusion if the party doesn't want Trump there
A brokered convention is vastly more likely than Trump going in with a majority of delegates.
>>56766581
Doesn't Hillary already have something like half the delegates she needs just in superdelegates who have committed to vote for her? Bill is a superdelegate who just gets to vote for her.
>>56756619
>In short, once you have had Trump, you can never go back to a normal politician.
Based Trump is the BBC of politicians.
>>56766581
>A brokered convention is vastly more likely than Trump going in with a majority of delegates.
possibly
it all depends on how much the GOP wants to risk angering trump to the point of running independent, and who's still left in the race by the time of the convention
i just think the GOP would be even more concerned about upsetting their base too much for them to pull a stunt like that with trump.
its not like most of the GOP establishment hates him, they just don't prefer him.
>>56766849
>Doesn't Hillary already have something like half the delegates she needs just in superdelegates who have committed to vote for her?
superdelegates in the DNC only account for about 20% of the votes
but yeah, she pretty much has all their votes guaranteed.
>>56766849
For Hillary she has already secured 359 of the 712 Democrat superdelegates (which are delegates who are unbound in who they can support) with Sanders at 8. Those superdelegates make up 30% of the total (2,383).
>>56767294
That's why Trump was very smart when they did that dumb pledge thing he agreed to sign it as long as "he's treated fairly". Trump is threatening to tank the General Election by running third party and splitting the vote if they fuck him so the RNC will be Trump walking in with a deadman's switch in his hand
Nate silverkike is such a bitch
>>56756619
>medialite
Was livejournal down tonight?
>>56767576
>Trump is threatening to tank the General Election by running third party and splitting the vote
>>56756619
>I don't like any of Silver's conclusions or his math about how elections go, or the fact that the electorate doesn't make up its mind until a couple weeks in advance
>I don't know how to refute this
>Wait I got it
>*ahem*
>NUH UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I RIGHT U WRONG NUH UHHHHHHHHHHH
I just saved you all 3 minutes of reading. Silver's conclusions stand until someone can prove that an electorate's early decisions pre Iowa hold up.
>>56756619
Who's Silver and why should I care about what he says?
>>56759419
>>56758441
It's so funny when the right wing tries to attack Nate Silver. You guys are wrong every single time and yet you keep trying.
If this was a real forum I'd just tag your name with a note "ask me in February how Trump is doing". Since this is anon, just make a mental note to yourself. On February 28, check Trumps numbers, see if they're over 15%.
Since you won't be around then, you can just apologize now and I'll accept it.
>>56770063
If you actually read what I said I don't disagree Trump's chances are non-zero and very low. The argument I have with Silver is his deviation from the methodology he has used previously with modeling and only making predictions from the aggregate of data rather than making claims that some of the data is irrelevant.
Look anywhere where I made the claim that Trump will win or was even likely to win? if anything I pointer out the opposite ( >>56764870 and >>56766581 ) but I'm guessing you didn't read that.
Do you have an opinion of your own or did you just want to reply because I was critical of Silver with a single aspect of his methodology (by claiming the support of Trump is an irrelevant data point)?
>>56769932
>I just saved you all 3 minutes of reading. Silver's conclusions stand until someone can prove that an electorate's early decisions pre Iowa hold up.
By that logic Nate Silver himself has no predictive power pre-Iowa since his conclusions are based on polling results which you said does not hold up. You can't have it both ways.
>>56756619
>Because there is, for better or worse, no one else anything like him, his supporters are simply not going anywhere else (unless he is revealed to be just a magician with no real magic
Trump is going to prove himself the Meme Magician, master of the meme magic
>>56759696
This, he's unlike anybody in fucking years. I mean there's been other 'crazy!' candidates, but none of them could withstand their first roastings and bantz. Trump is just invincible, he could shoot a baby and get slammed in every publication, and he would still rise in polls.
>>56760214
>will get crushed in the general election.
By WHO
