/pol/ BTFO by Nate Silver, as usual.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dear-media-stop-freaking-out-about-donald-trumps-polls/
>Quite often, however, the Trump’s-really-got-a-chance! case is rooted almost entirely in polls. If nothing Trump has said so far has harmed his standing with Republicans, the argument goes, why should we expect him to fade later on?
>One problem with this is that it’s not enough for Trump to merely avoid fading. Right now, he has 25 to 30 percent of the vote in polls among the roughly 25 percent of Americans who identify as Republican. (That’s something like 6 to 8 percent of the electorate overall, or about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.) As the rest of the field consolidates around him, Trump will need to gain additional support to win the nomination. That might not be easy, since some Trump actions that appeal to a faction of the Republican electorate may alienate the rest of it. Trump’s favorability ratings are middling among Republicans (and awful among the broader electorate).
>t can be easy to forget it if you cover politics for a living, but most people aren’t paying all that much attention to the campaign right now. Certainly, voters are consuming some campaign-related news. Debate ratings are way up, and Google searches for topics related to the primaries1 have been running slightly ahead of where they were at a comparable point of the 2008 campaign, the last time both parties had open races. But most voters have a lot of competing priorities. Developments that can dominate a political news cycle, like Trump’s frenzied 90-minute speech in Iowa earlier this month, may reach only 20 percent or so of Americans.
>>56518290
>inb4 but muh liberal Google stats!
>But maybe you don’t trust the Google search data. That’s OK; exit polls like this one have historically asked voters in Iowa and New Hampshire when they made their final decision on how to vote. These exit polls find that voters take their sweet time. In Iowa, on average, only 35 percent of voters had come to a final decision before the final month of the campaign. And in New Hampshire, only 29 percent had. (Why is the fraction lower in New Hampshire than in Iowa? Probably because voters there are waiting for the Iowa results before locking in their choice. In fact, about half of New Hampshire voters make up their minds in the final week of the campaign.)
/pol/ officially on suicide watch
>muh nate silver
>>56518088
>Silver
It's all queers, jews, and queer jews.
majority of voters just barely know candidate names, cannot name every candidate and decide the day of the vote based on fickle bullshit like whether they talk about family values or are pro-lgbt/weed.
hes right, the election cycle is still early on. Most people don't give a shit until NH and Iowa
This doesn't mean that Trump will not get elected, but it does mean these early polls don't mean too much
>>56518088
It's easy to shit on Trump, but if not Trump, then who?
>>56518088
That same logic applies to everyone. If that's the case then how come I just saw a poll in which Trump wins the national election against Hillary 45% to 41%?
>>56519444
checked em.
>If not Trump, then who?
Memes aside, literally anyone else is a better bet.
![320245326_photo_rick_santorum_pink_tie_answer_11_xlarge[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/tYdB1Rb.jpg "320245326_photo_rick_santorum_pink_tie_answer_11_xlarge[1].jpg")
>>56519444
>>56519499
No, Trump and Cruz are the only anti-amnesty candidates and Cruz is too rhino for me.
>t-the polls don't mean anything, guize
>ignore the polls, they're meaningless
>one of our candidates is ahead by fewer percentage points than the margin of error?
>omfg the polls look at these polls btfo bernie it's the current year free ponies!
Liberals are shameless.
>>56518088
Trump will win because he knows how to play the media and is good at convincing people to vote for him.
The majority of people will listen to their gut feeling and vote for trump.
>>56518290
>record smashing debate audiences
>hurr durr no one is paying attention
>a plurality of politically engaged republicans like trump
>when everyone who doesn't care about politics start paying attention, they will surly not flock to the funny meme man
Jesus Christ, I thought Jews were supposed to be smart
>>56519499
>literally anyone else is a better bet.
But that's bullshit
Literally anyone else running will do more or less the same business as usual shit once they get into office because it's what they've trained themselves to do for decades. Shillary will drive us even farther into oblivion and any of the repiblishits except Cruz(who legally can't be president) will just go limp noodle if they don't have the majority in both the house and Senate just like they did when we elected them to defend obamacare.
Everyone else BUT Trump has our situation either getting worse or staying the same and you're an idiot if you can't see that
>>56518088
>fivethirtyeight
Into the trash it goes. Silver is a shill
>>56519953
>Change automatically means better
How progressive of you.
We don't have to go full retard to get something different going on, we just need to get Americans more interested in politics, and electing the meme guy isn't going to get anyone interested in politics for longer than an hour after the election.
>>56519210
>>56519264
>>56520014
>Hard numbers and stats can't beat my Jew conspiracy!
>I could disprove him, but I'll just call him a shill
I like Trump but Silver isn't wrong. Look at all the previous polls at this time. It doesn't reflect shit. People have short memories
>>56519680
Except he's been saying literally the same thing since summer. No one is paying attention except the die-hards
>>56520014
>data is biased
nigger-tier logic as expected
I remember when Nate Silver predicted the Romney - Obama election 100% accurate and /pol/ (still /new/ back then I think) was all like "hurr he's an idiot this absolutely not biased fox-based poll shows Romney's gotta get a landslide victory".
Is anyone else planning on killing themselves if Donald doesn't get elected?
>>56519604
>Cruz
>rhino(sic)
Not even gonna think for a second before you shitpost, eh?
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart (Jun 16)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/why-donald-trump-isnt-a-real-candidate-in-one-chart/
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously (Jul 15)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/two-good-reasons-not-to-take-the-donald-trump-surge-seriously/
Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom (Aug 6)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination (Aug 11)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-winning-the-polls-and-losing-the-nomination/
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record (Aug 14)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/candidates-in-donald-trumps-position-have-a-terrible-track-record/
Donald Trump Is Running A Perpetual Attention Machine (Aug 26)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-running-a-perpetual-attention-machine/
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too (Sep 8)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/if-donald-trump-can-win-the-nomination-ben-carson-could-too/
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump? (Sep 24)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/was-the-second-republican-debate-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-donald-trump/
Republicans Don’t Like Donald Trump As Much As They Used To (Oct 2)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/republicans-dont-like-donald-trump-as-much-as-they-used-to/
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible (Oct 20)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-doomed-andor-invincible/
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump? (Oct 26)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/can-ben-carson-really-take-out-donald-trump/
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump (Nov 4)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-primary-rules-might-doom-carson-and-cruz/
>>56520384
It was /pol/ then. And only a small portion of /pol/ thought Romney was going to win. There were more Obama shills than Romney shills by far. And even more of the 'Romney = Obama' crowd. On the other hand, there were hoards of those who legitimately thought Ron Paul would win, and were surprised when he didn't get the nomination and blamed it on 'Jet Fuel can't melt steel beams'-level shenanigans.
>>56520672
>And only a small portion of /pol/ thought Romney was going to win
Come on, it may not have been as right-wing as it is today but the majority (maybe not the supermajority) supported Romney and believed he was going to win.
>>56520672
>>56520856
To be fair, some of us supported Romney but were still capable of understanding a not-very-complicated statistical analysis.
I love how all the anti-trump shills come out of the wood work at nearly the same time, with the same tired shit every single day.
You all are desperate as fuck.
I love how scared the media is of Trump
If anything this makes me want to vote him in even more
>>56521006
>I can't rebut anything so here's some buzzwords
>>56521015
Sick meme
>>56520636
>that pathetic progression of shilling
holy fuck m8
>>56518088
>largest crowds of any candidate
>highest rated television broadcasts for debates in history (only when trump is present)
>47% larger viewership of SNL, despite leftist shits boycotting and protesting
>most diverse support base of any republican since reagan
>most media attention of any candidate
>single handedly brought the issue of illegal immigration into the spotlight
>has spent the least of any candidate while gaining the most support
>no ones paying attention
You wish kike
>>56521015
You can smell the fear.
Election night as its Trumps vs Hillary leftists will still be shouting how none of this real, and that it can't be happening.
>>56520636
>consistency is bad
>inconsistency is hypocritical
>same percentage of people who believe the moon landings were faked
Nice smear you filthy kike.
>if you support trump you're a moon hoaxer!
>>56521432
I think the implication here wasn't that Trump supporters are crazy, but they're niche.
>>56518088
oh fuck this kike idiot. he gets one election right and thinks he's nostradamus
>>56521591
>trusting a yid
You should know better Adolf. There's a reason he used that specific concept instead of something else.
>>56521662
>literally a meme candidate!
>Ignore the polls
>none of its real!
>g-guys really!
>>56518088
Check'd
>>56518290
>>56518494
Based Nate. I've always liked fivethirtyeight.
Rubio's gonna be the Republican nominee, paraded as a Republican Kennedy. But Hillary's gonna squeak out a victory.
Man I just like Trump because he wasn't part of the establishment.
He's not some bought out senator or career politician like Hilary. He's a wild card, and since the country is burning anyways, I'd like to take a chance.
Why should I trust a man who changed his last name from Silverberg to Silver.
Nate Silver is shilling anti-trump HARD because he predicted he would drop out, and it's clearly not happening. it's bad for his brand.
I read his latest anti-trump piece and he pretty much is saying "anything could happen!"
aren't you supposed to be a numbers guy? i could run a website and say that shit
>>56521925
That's perfectly reasonable.
If anything this article is a criticism of the the sensationalist hand-wringing in the media, who by design can't help but write freak-out pieces because that's what gets clicks. And the freak out d'jour is that they can't BELIEVE trump's numbers are so high.
It's only also indirectly a criticism of those around here who only possess so little knowledge of the electoral process that they hubristically insist his success so far means he has the whole election wrapped up. Because the loudest of his supporters here certainly think that.
>>56521807
>guise Trump is stupid he'll never win. he's alienating muh repubs when he tweets crime graphs!
>trying to make it look like he's gonna lose so they can safely rig the election without anyone finding it suspicious and investigating
>>56521662
My roommate's dog right here knew the nigger would win, pls
it's 2015
>>56521150
That's not going to happen. The media hates Trump. That really should tell you a lot.
>>56518088
So what exactly is silvers point? I'm honestly confused. Is he saying that most Americans don't pay attention to politics? Because duh. There's a reason the saying "there's no such thing as bad publicity" exists. And if that's what he's trying to say, then the fact that Trump gets talked about so much and was already rather famous aill help him get elected.
I think he'a also trying to say "polls don't matter", but if that's true, isn't his whole job about polls? If they don't matter, then why does he work with them? Doesn't that mean that by logical extension his job doesn't matter?
>>56523006
He's saying the polls right now don't matter. Pic related sums it up.
>>56521830
>Rubio's gonna be the Republican nominee, paraded as a Republican Kennedy.
This is how it should go. He's certainly performed well and taken the high road many times when he didn't have to. I think when people start tuning in late January you'll see a huge surge for him.
>But Hillary's gonna squeak out a victory.
Too soon to say but there's so many states out there that are must-wins for the GOP it's looking really rough. One slip-up in Ohio, for example, and it's pretty much over.
Of course most of this place thinks it'll be trump making NY/IL red because that's the upward limit of their analytical ability
>>56523235
Then why write about them? If he really thinks they don't matter until a short while before the election, then his site shouldn't publish any articles on the polling data until a short while before the election.
>>56523372
Well actually he's not writing about them. In this article he's writing about why other outlets shouldn't write about them and a quick look at other articles on the site shows they're not talking about these type of premature polls at all.
>>56523372
Because
1) he has a business to run too and
2) like I said >>56522496 he's responding to the histronics in the media (meaning cnn, wapo, etc) who are freaking out about polls that essentially don't matter
>>56519774
so we should listen to your gut feeling?
>>56518088
They literally still believe people are voting Trump because it's Halloween or Thanksgiving.
Seeing these kikes get BTFO like in the UK election is going to be sweet
>>56518088
Nate silver was right for one election and has been wrong ever since
>>56518088
>Muh data
Yeah, it sure served Nate and Five-Thirty-Eight well during their projections of the UK elections.
Oh wait.
>>56518088
K
he totally doesn't have an agenda or bias or anything
>>56523519
So then those buisnesses should be trying to make money by publishing news?
I'm a cruz man myself, but it seems to me that there's no logical reason for him to write this article, other than as a really back handed way of telling people to stop saying that the canidate he doesn't like will win. If it were anything else he would have pointed out that this logic applies to all the canidates, democrats and republicans, rather than focus on the republicans and spefically their front runner.
In the Obama election most didnt anticipate the black and youth vote coming in as much as it did.
No one really cares about this election like that.
>>56523768
It makes sense to target Trump specifically in this 'calm down everyone' approach because he's the candidate producing the most buzz and hysteria, duh.
>>56520384
No one on /pol/ liked Romney. What are you fucking talking about?
>>56523935
But why does he want to calm everyone down?
There seems to be no purpose for him to publish this article, other than to get that sweet Trump buzz cash and to reaffirm his bias, correct? Or am I missing something.
>>56524046
now that's what I call historical revisionism
>>56518290
that graph
>2008 post-caucuses people google "who the fuck is barack obama?"
>2012 pre-caucuses: people in a frenzy to remove barack obama
>2012 post-caucuses: everyone realizes the republican nominees are a total joke and interest tapers
>>56524210
Because he thinks it's not right? It's not a hard concept to grasp. He sees people freaking out over yet-to-be even remotely conclusive data so he tells them why it's a little premature to get so fucking worked up.
>>56520249
>>56520172
>not understanding the difference between data and information
>implying informatiom can't be biased
Gender studies majors detected
>>56524314
But why the fuck does he care? What incentive does he have to care if people get worked up?
So people like to think their canidate is going to win, and may cite dubious sources to prove it, does he really think that's something new or something that will change?
>>56524619
Honestly this is getting ridiculous. Why does he care? He just does. It's his job to write on this shit. He thought it was a development worthy of a comment.
So who the fuck is going to win instead Nate?
Yeb?
Carly "Horsecock" Fiorina?
>>56524766
Rubio.
Trump absolutely BTFO Yeb.
Even if Trump loses, he's done America a great service by preventing another Bush.
And I doubt Yeb can come back from this.
>>56520636
Oh shit they're on to us.
>>56524740
So what you're saying is that nate got so worked up over media reporting on trump that he wrote an article that points out the obvious, and thus, OP, by repeating it, is also pointing out the obvious, but phrasing it in such a way to garner replies, provide evidince for a certian bias, and this proves that OP is a baiting biased faggot.
Ok then, just wanted to make sure my first instinct was correct.
>>56518088
Nate Silver is a total fucking retard. YouGov have actually been polling people on second preferences and Trump routinely hits the mid-40s when you add these to his first preferences - more than enough to win a primary against, say, 2 or 3 other candidates.
Nate's letting his own hate of Trump overwhelm the political realities of this election. He keeps pretending that republican primary voters are going to just nod their heads and quietly pull the lever for Rubio/Bush because the RNC tells them to. He completely ignores the fact that the primary base is utterly fed up with the establishment.
Nate's in so deep in Trump hating that he's essentially betting his career on him losing the nomination fight. You think he has a chance in hell of selling any more books if he's BTFO by Trump? People will just say "literally who" when Nate tries his "m-m-muh 2012" schtick.
538 crumbling and Nate going to intern at some shithole like Gawker or Buzzfeed will be yet another shining moment of Trump's victory.
>>56525179
Frankly OP only said this calm down approach BTFO of /pol/ and in this way it's not very obvious around here. People on this board freak out over everything Trump says or does, any poll or projection that puts him in a good stop, no matter how minor or inconclusive.
And if you look at the media circus in general "calm down people the election is still an eternity away and polls dont mean shit yet" is absolutely not obvious to many reporters.
>>56518088
>among the roughly 25 percent of Americans who identify as Republican
WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU EVEN SMOKING NIGGER?
>>56525414
If the polls had Jeb or Rubio leading the way Trump is Nate and his hacks would declare the race already decided and proclaim that we should skip voting and get onto the contest with Hillary already.
Yes, it's too early to say polls matter a lot, but we're looking at a cycle where we've seen a massive amount of interest in the primary season (record breaking ratings for the debates, etc.) and nearly everything Trump says gets reported on, and after all of this exposure Trump has maintained for months a solid lead.
>>56523768
>>56524210
>>56524619
>>56525179
Glad I didn't bother with this willful ignorance.
>I'm gonna pretend I don't understand how criticising media sperging out over polls that don't matter is relevant.
Fuck off, shill.
>>56520636
They've been saying Trump is finished from the beginning and have been wrong the entire way.
When he wins the nomination, the asshurt is gonna be so great.
>>56518088
The type of anti Trump shilling that the media partakes in is so obvious that nearly everyone can see through it. By shitting on him, it just pisses off the average voter even further and contributes to the anti establishment sentiment.
>>56525719
>If the polls had Jeb or Rubio leading the way Trump is Nate and his hacks would declare the race already decided and proclaim that we should skip voting and get onto the contest with Hillary already
>baseless supposition
You must be a trump supporter
>>56525795
Oh fuck off.
Silver's only complaing about it because it's not a democrat who the media can't stop talking about, otherwise he would have pointed out how this also applies to Hillary.
>>56525509
Nate's trying to get cute with the numbers to sling some horseshit numbers. It's actually really fucking embarrassing for the supposed Overlord of Data and Fact's to be such a sleazy shitbag.
According to Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx) 28% of the US id's as Republican, 30% as Democrat, and 39% as Independent.
However when you ask the Independents if they lean Republican or Democrat, you get 42% Republican leaning, and 44% as Democrat leaning.
>>56525719
Him reporting differently had the results been different is just an assumption. Frankly I don't see this whole "he has a personal agenda against Trump" angle. He's a professional, him giving in to biases is just bad form. And in most articles concerning Trump he goes to great lengths to clarify that a candidate like Trump is extremely unique, there are no previous data points to compare so any of his predictions should be taken with a grain of salt as with a candidate as novel as Trump, anything can happen. Even in this very article he says Trump has a very real chance of winning the primaries, just that it may not be as big a chance as current polls suggest.
>>56518088
His argument does make sense.
Why Ben Carson surged when he went on a book tour?
Because the media was writing more stories about him.
And that's pretty much it, Trumps is a perpetual attention whore, much like most of /pol/
>>56519680
Pretty sure Nate is pro-hillary.
>>56525963
Listen to the "Serious Thinkers" discuss the Democratic race and you'll get people who look at Hillary Clinton's commanding lead and talk about how dominant she seems as a candidate, you'll get a side mention about Bernie being more of a challenge than perhaps expected, but Hillary is still the clear front runner.
When Trump leads polls, there's 1001 caveats and "well see that doesn't count because REASONS".
>>56526061
so if you knew that for a fact, why'd you spend 5 posts pretending you didn't know why he wrote the piece?
>>56519680
>>56526200
He was 100% right in 2012 though, and he made predictions at a sensible time, not this early.
Remember when Hillary was the certain for 2008's nomination and then got narrowly beaten by Obama?
>>56526325
Socratic method.
>>56518088
this guy is an idiot
>hurr he has peaked, no one else could possibly like Donald Trump the most famous and rich and cool person ever
>>56526329
Yeah, but Obama was a establishment candidate all along and Hillary didn't have like 25% superdelegates supporting her from the get go (like she does now)
One thing is saying that an underdog might have a chance, another is than outsider will win the entire election by a landslide (like the dilbert guy says).
>>56524977
There are people that actually support Rubio?
He's just a poor man's Mitt Romney, he's robotic as fuck and has the same foreign policy as Hillary Clinton.
>>56526317
Because 70/30 margin means more than 20/15?
Or 25/22?
Or 30/20?
It's like you guys want to me made fools of today.
>>56526079
Nate's been desperately trying to bate Trump on Twitter for fucking ages. It's hilarious to watch him squirm and flail about. He has to know by how his reputation is seriously on the line and he stands a very good chance of being ignored after this election cycle, which would be a death blow to his entire business hopes.
>>56519176
i really can't wait for the day trump gets BTFO in the primary. /pol/ 's tiers are going to be so fucking delicious.
though part of me hopes he does win the primary so i can drink double the tears when he loses the general election in a blowout.
>>56526415
He's not saying he's peaked, he's saying he's an unknown, he could go up, or could flatline easily as more people tune into the races.
>>56520636
Those are not written by the same author though.
And this one:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
That one doesn't say that Trump is doomed, but just says what challenges Trump will have to face during the nomination froces.
Trump has only managed to overcome stage 1 and is about to win survive stage 2. Four more to go.
>>56526317
Because the republican race is infinitely more volatile Candidates with huge gains or losses every other week.
And the reasonthe polls for the republican candidates weigh less is because the majority republican voterbase has simply yet to decide who they're going to back, which is something that applies much less to the democratic race. People were saying "I'm gonna vota Hillary" like fucking 2 years ago. Who the fuck was talking about Trump or Carson or Cruz back then as their serious candidate?
It's obvious why the two races are different in this regard.
>>56520172
>People have short memories
most trumpfags on /pol/ are underage. they werent even in middle school in 2012.
Nate Silver also thought that Jeb Bush was going to be the Nominee. Just because he predicted the 2008 and 2012 elections doesn't make him a god.
>>56526451
The kuckservative vote is still too split up Rubio can't stand out unless the establishment unanimously decides to back him.
But as you can guess, Nate is instead doubling down on Bush and his single digit support.
>>56526451
He's the establishment and libtard media favorite now that Yeb is gone.
>>56526528
>>56526620
>it's an r/sandersforpresident poster
>>56524046
there was a lot more.
>>56526475
Show me the polls with Hillary leading 70/30 on Bernie
>>56525329
But muh endorsements
>>56526528
>tiers
Opinion discarded
>>56526669
They said Bush was the most likely nominee at the very start of the race. Most people did that. It's not an unreasonable projection, Bush vs Clinton was the widely accepted election but the race turned out very different afterall.
But this isn't really being wrong. it's like betting odds. Yeah there's a favourite, but that doesn't mean the bookies think that favourite is absolutely going to win - just most likely.
>>56526770
>le reddit meme
Website wars are for underage, cocksucking faggots. Like I said, most trumpfags are underage and you're only proving my point kiddo
>>56526669
He got his ass wrecked in the recent British elections
>>56526993
>being this triggered
>>56520120
your country sucks atm
vote trump
>>56526914
He wasn't just saying it at the beginning, he was saying it up till last month, long past when everyone else knew that Bush was dead in the water.
>>56518088
>25% of americans are republican
this is what liberal delusionism looks like
>>56527027
That was a general polling failure, the whole media and polling industry here got their arse wrecked hard, they were like 7% out on the actual Tory vote in the end.
We're not sure if it was a systematic polling error or just a late swing/undecideds massively voting Tory.
like a gay jew won't be baised. Ask him about those UK elections.
>>56527144
Registered Republicans
>>56527167
We have polling failures here all the time.
>>56518088
Nate Silver has been entirely full of shit this entire election cycle.
>Trump is a joke candidate nobody will pay him any attention or take him seriously.
>Trump's popularity is a complete fluke it will never last through the summer.
>Trump's campaign is a farce it will certainly stall during autumn, he has zero chance at the nomination.
>T-Trump isn't a serious contender stop looking at those pull numbers, people actually hate Trump!
>>56527144
btw they d ont believe th moon landing was real!! xd
>>56527053
Can anyone explain why this man is incapable of smiling? Every time he tries he makes small children cry.
If he can't control his facial muscles why should he control the country?
>>56527223
See >>56527167 everyone fucked that election up horribly, from the right wing papers like the Telegraph through to the leftists running channel 4.
>>56527290
Are they ever 7% out though? Parties getting 30 or 40 more/less seats than predicted?
>>56518088
>wears problem glasses
Why would I even want to listen
>>56527381
kek
He looks like one of those ghouls from the Fallout games
>>56518088
Nate has already proved himself wrong by using outdated statistics regarding the attention people pay prior to the several weeks directly before the primaries begin.
It's something like 34% being heavily invested in the current race, with another 15-20 being moderately invested, meaning that a potential 50% of the republican base is informed as to the current candidates to a large extent, so no, Nate, people are paying much more attention this time around, and it isn't 2008 or 2012 anymore.
Also fails to mention polling on the issues and who is expected to be the eventual nominee, which says just as much about the race as anything else, all of which Trump dominates.
Literally cherrypicking.
>>56527460
>hey smoothskin, want somebody else to pay for your college?
We really need some of these useless candidates out and their poll numbers redistributed before making any conclusion either way.
Santorum, Gilmore, Graham, Pataki, Christie, Paul, Huckabee, and Kasich all should probably drop at this point.
>>56519822
This! THIS RIGHT HERE!
Nate is fucking retarded. More people are engaged in this cycle than EVER before.
He entire point is BTFO by that fact alone.
Fucking idiot fag heeb is so stuck in his orthodoxy he can't see the facts screaming his kike face.
>>56518088
When the first thing that comes to mind is a strawman argument(diehard trump fans=moon hoaxers), you know you're in mental gymnastics mode.
RECORD DEBATE NUMBERS
RECORD RATINGS ACROSS THE BOARD
RECORDS ON SOCIAL MEDIA
DUR DUR NO ONE IS PAYING ATTENTION DUR DUR I AM A DUMB FUCKING AUTISTIC WHO CANT PROCESS NEW INFORMATION DURRR DURRR DURR
Also reminder it's not like this is the first time the site urged caution and it's not only targetted at Trump..
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/keep-calm-and-ignore-the-2016-game-changers/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-polling-industry-in-stasis-or-in-crisis/
>>56519822
Underrated
>>56518088
Boy Nate Silver sure was correct about those 2014 midterms...
Oh wait, he was terribly off.
Boy Nate Silver sure was good about predicting the British elections...
Oh wait, he was terribly off.
Why would anyone listen to this balding gay ugly faced jew?
>>56528133
>>56528009
He's just being reasonable and going by what's previously happened. Look at this >>56518290.
In 2012 at this point in time you also could have said "OMG INTEREST IS MORE THAN DOUBLED SINCE FOUR YEARS AGO THIS SHIT IS DECIDED", yet in the grand scheme of things it didn't mean shit.
Trump obviously is the most novel presidential candidate in a while, if not ever. It's only natural he creates an exceptional amount of buzz. All Silver is saying that we have yet to see any candidate like that ever succeeding and going by that, it's reasonable to stay on the fence about how 'real' Trump support is when it's still this early in the race.
>>56528282
Big time underrated. OP nailed it.
Nate is a fucking autistic retard who can't compute new information in time.
Trump is fucking up MUH PREDICTION MODEL so Nate is having an autistic meltdown over it.
>>56528418
We NEVER seen a candidate like Trump.
Also Nate's entire argument revolves around the idiotic idea that NO ONE IS PAYING ATTENTION THIS EARLY IN THE CYCLE.
Well thats just plain wrong!
>>56526827
Nate Silver was BTFO /pol/ even back then.
The jew strikes again.
>>56528530
But going by all available data, he's not wrong. So maybe there are record-breaking numbers interested and more people than ever have decided who they're going to vote for. Maybe then 'only' 75% have yet to decide.
>>56518088
>only 30% of 25% support him!
Isn't this the exact same as saying only 30%/50% of 25% of democrats support bernie/hillary?
Why is trump an impossibility because "only 8%!" But Hillary is an inevitability when she's sitting at 12% by the same reasoning...
>>56526575
Nate Silver's the editor-in-chief so he has the last word which articles to publish.
>>56528770
>Why is trump an impossibility
He never said that, just that the media circus over him is overblown right now.
>>56528433
Fucking this. Trump is an anomaly, he doesn't fit in any model. If any other candidate had tried what Trump is doing their campaign would be dead 1000 times over, but every time Trump says or does something that would sink any other candidate he just gets stronger because of it.
Nate Silvers models won't work in this election, he'll they didn't even work in the midterms.
>>56528807
So?
Harry Eten (the one you're whining about) thought Chris Christie Kreame had an opportunity at winning the nomination. Nate Silver thinks the nominee will be Marco Rubio.
Two different people working on the same place can hold two different opinions.
>>56526827
There were no more of these threads than Rand or Bernie shill threads right now.
>>56526593
See you're bringing context in for the dems but want to play strict Silver number games for the repubs
How about we talk about context, when the Rands, Christie, Fio and Carsons of the world drop who is more likely to get thier base
Yeb?
Rubio?
The establishment is not favored in this election. You might argue Cruz could pick up votes but why go Cruz when Trump is there
>>56528986
And a smart publication would mask their biases. And it's pretty much anyone but Trump for the most part, the examples you gave support it.
>>56528981
This is a possibility (one Nate considers in every article concerning Trump by the way) but it's simply too early to tell. With someone as crazy as Trump we just have to wait and see if he's going to be the one crazy guy that actually breaks the mold for once - and wait and see is exactly what Silver is urging in the article of the OP.
>>56529163
Its also anyone but Ben Carson.
OH IT MUST BE A CONSPIRACY AGAINST THE TRUMP!
>>56529119
Also this. When Carson drops who are his voters going to turn to? A generic political establishment candidate or a fellow politically incorrect outsider like Trump? The same thing goes for Cruz.
>MUH DATA!
>nate predicted brazil would win world cup
hue hue hue
>>56529194
Nice proxy Nate
>>56528688
That's ridiculous and at this point just guessing.
Face it, Trump is a black swan candidate that is fucking up the statistical models based on past cycles.
Get over it, you either evolve or die.
>>56529445
Nate Silver got 2012, and he really is a SMART mother fucker, but he's starting to come off as a partisan hack instead of an objective numbers guy.
>>56520406
>killing yourself if Trump isn't elected
>not taking the fight to the Democrats directly
Don't piss away your life for nothing like that.
>>56529483
>Face it, Trump is a black swan candidate that is fucking up the statistical models based on past cycles.
Yeah - possibly. But unless we're actually seeing the vote (or at least get a little closer to it), it's just another possiblity. And the thing is, every election ever people are saying "this is the one! this one changes everything! this is the one where anything can happen and previous models dont work!". And guess what? Pretty much every time that's wrong.
So again, can Trump be the one that breaks this? Maybe. But as history as shown, being on the fence about these outliners is usually the right choice.
>>56529461
hurr durr
>>56518088
>silver
/pol/.is.always.right
>>56525509
He is right though. You guys can never win because there are less of you.
>>56518088
>>56518290
>>56518494
>2012
>mittens wins nomination since he maintained ~20% of vote since he announced his candidacy
>had other "flavor of the month" candidates get ahead of him in the polls all throughout the nomination process
>2015
>trump enters the race
>skyrockets past 30%
>been on top for literal months
>none of the other candidate have ever surpassed him (Carson at best tied with him for a few days)
>only showing signs of getting more popular
>is winning over the establishment slowly
>somehow won't win the nomination
all these retarded analysts think this election cycle is just like every other election cycle when any jackass that looks at the stats can tell it is far from the norm.
hes got about 30% of the first choice votes out of 14 candidates. combine first and second choice votes, and he was at 48% over a month ago when his poll numbers were in a dip so i can only imagine that right now they're past the 50% margin.
hes not going to lose the nomination, and there's going to be more than enough people who don't want Hillary to give trump a landslide victory.
>>56520636
>trump will never make it up in the polls
>okay well he's reached his peak, i guarantee he'll plummet any day now
>alright look, he's clearly plateaued. when other candidates start picking up steam they'll surpass him
>okay, so hes been in first place for months now, but theres no way he can actually win the nomination r...right?
>what do you mean he won the nomination? well there's no way he can win the general election
>as of the afternoon of November 8th, 2016, Donald Trump.... has won the presidential election
these people are delusional idiots terrified that trump will actually win, and their ass blasting will be glorious when he does.
Nate Silver is a Jew isn't he?
>>56518494
>only 35%
And Trump has about 1/3 of that locked down "won't vote for anyone else". Is Silver fucking retarded or something?
>Trump only has XYZ numbers
>ignoring that 66% of Republicans are anti-Establishment
>ignoring that Trump will probably win in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina when Romney only won in New Hampshire
>ignoring that Romney and McCain were also polling around what Trump is and became the nominees
>ignoring that the field doesn't just consolidate all that quickly and that Trump's victories will give him an air of inevitability
>ignoring that Rubio is kryptonite simply because he supports amnesty when a majority of Republicans are against it and the only person who can be Trump would be another anti-Establishment guy
>thinks he's smart because he looked at the polls and said "Romney will lose, Obama will win"
Jesus, this guy is retarded
>>56529836
Except there was never a good reason to think that about previous elections, this time we do. Trump is leading all the polls by wide margins, both nationally and state. The media has been consistently wrong about Trump dropping (including your precious Nate Silverstein). Hell Trump managed to destroy the Bush campaign despite Yebs family, despite his massive fundraising, despite his near perfect plan with the RNC to get him elected, and despite Bush being the party favorite.
>>56529592
he's a power playing jew read 'nation wrecker'... good luck finding a power playing heeb that thinks much of the European nations he feeds off. There's a reason mudslimes hate them, it's a shame we did not rival their barbarism as the jew would be caput by now
>>56523235
you know the really funny thing about this is that he thinks the people enter the ballot aren't going to think like this:
>another bush? hell no
>some politicians i've never heard about? nah
>paul? lol who's going to build roads?
>Trump? you mean the guy from he TV? Fuck yeah i love that guy!
this kike is just desperately trying to comfort himself
>>56530393
>>56530495
>Buzzwords as rebuttal
Thanks for the bump
>>56530517
Yeah but the point is poll numbers don't mean much yet. Also Silver never said Trump was impossible, just unlikely. He gave him 2% in August, probably a little more now.
>Except there was never a good reason to think that about previous elections, this time we do.
Actually there was. Something like Huckabee winning Iowa in 2008 also had people people screaming the same shit. He was also a more novel candidate that hung around a little longer than those usually do but in the end he was infinitely far away from actually winning the nomination. And stuff like this happens all the time which is why people are going to deny Trump until he actually wins.
Also Bush destroyed himself and while he was the establishment favourite, in no way did they absolutely love him, like for example Hillary is loved by the democrats. Bush was the least terrible choice so they backed him very cautiosly.
>>56530806
But that's a legitimate line. There is evidence to suggest that Trump is over-performing among 'low information' voters who really just go by name recongition.
https://medium.com/@PatrickRuffini/trumped-up-polls-c0d351831cfa#.edujogixp
>>56522496
>It's only also indirectly a criticism of those around here who only possess so little knowledge of the electoral process that they hubristically insist his success so far means he has the whole election wrapped up. Because the loudest of his supporters here certainly think that.
The only person who would say that is someone who knows Trump will probably win the nomination based on past data (Romney and McCain being in the lead most of the time in 2008 and 2012, but Trump's lead is far more stable) and is hugely butthurt about it
Kill yourself, shill
>>56531395
Let me clarify. People like Nate do not think the people voting in the primaries think like this >>56530806. Their argument is pretty much the opposite. The people actually in the primaries do not think like this and the people who do, a group in which Trump supposedly overperforms, are unlikely to actually go to the voting booth.
>>56531395
>low info voters
Except that Trump's surge to first place is entirely the result of his anti-illegal speeches during the summer. It is Carson who was surging among low info voters, not Trump. Trump is in the lead because his voters knows he wants to deport the illegals and support him for it.
>>56531236
Huckabee winning Iowa was by no means out of the ordinary, he was a religious evangelical Christian and Iowa always picks the religious evangelical Christian. Except right now they're favoring a divorced Manhatten billionaire who couldn't name a bible verse to save his life. That is fucking weird.
>>56531619
Trump's voters are fanatics who support him regardless of what he says
You're an idiot if you think they're low info or that they won't turn out for him
>>56531564
Except poll lead is not everything. Polls fluctuate. Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich all had huge poll surges and ended up fizzling out in the end.
But if we're talking constants maybe look at the fact that since 1980 no candidate that was hated by the establishment has won a primary.
This is the part where you tell me Trump is different and this elections is different and going to be the one that breaks the cycle but once again, we'll just have to wait and see if that is actually what happens.
>>56531189
hey buddy
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2015/10/13/poll-donald-trump-48-percent-support/
fuck you
this was from October 13th
according to RCP, Trumps up 4 points in first choice votes from then. i can only imagine that hes gotten way more second choice votes too
I did a lot of stuff with Nate Silver's work in debate, and yes, he's scarily correct, and "The Signal and the Noise" is a great book.
That being said, I disagree with this article because Silver appears to be walking into this election like it's your normal, West Wing/House of Cards style election, with all the rules and things that go with it. He's assuming the permanent existence of rules that Trump is now throwing out.
>>56531395
>>56531619
EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT LOW INFORMATION VOTERS IS HOW OBAMA WON IN '08
>>56530711
>as the jew would be caput
kaputt*
>>56531965
You only believe this if you're a butthurt republican. You might have more of a point with the general election, but this is absolutely not how he beat Hillary.
>>56531395
I would have to disagree. Trump has name recognition, but as an entertainer. His initial unfavorably numbers were very high, but he has done what nobody has done, which is decrease these numbers and improve his favoribility as people become more informed of his positions. I think if anything, the poll numbers are underestimating his support because of this and the general media attacks he's been getting.
>>56531816
>>56531816
Cain, Bachmann, Santorum and the rest had their chance in the limelight for the sole reason that they weren't Romney. Ultimately it was the candidate who remained the most consistent that won, and Trump is the Romney of this race.
>>56531816
trump has maintained a constant lead for four months now and you think you can predict this election by basing it off the last couple of elections?
look at this shit, this kind of thing simply does not happen
>>56523006
Silver is doing damage control after initially predicting months ago that Trump wouldn't be the nominee. Now it is increasingly looking like Trump will in fact be the nominee.
Silver's brand as an accurate poll reader is in jeopardy and he knows it. He just got BTFO in his UK predictions this year.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/05/nate-silver-polls-are-failing-us-206799
>>56532333
not even Romney had this level of success at the polls
>>56532333
>trump has maintained a constant lead for four months now and you think you can predict this election by basing it off the last couple of elections?
Yes this is how statistics generally work. You take all applicable data into account and go from there.
And before you also start, yes, there is the possiblity that this is a super unique election and none of the metrics from previous years apply but we'll just have to wait and see. So far the only real indication that this race is odd (because a novelity candidate like Trump doing well is not all that special) is the large number of candidates in the field.
>>56519444
Cruz or Rubio. I'm pretty sure at this point it's a 3 way race. Unless Trump wins Iowa, NH, and SC. If he does that he's the nominee almost certainly.
>>56532476
But you're contradicting yourself. Silver is making a point about how polls are failing to represent actual election results recently, yet the only argument for Trump winning are his poll numbers.
>>56532659
And of course Trump is ahead in all three states last time I checked. Though I think Iowa might flip to Cruz before the caucus.
>>56532333
>>56532547
McCain wasn't even as successful as Trump is right now
>>56532633
>You take all applicable data into account and go from there.
well guess what fuck face, looking at the last two republican primaries, it seems pretty clear that trump is going to win.
>>56532913
I'd say pretty much the same thing again so I'll just link the post again >>56531816
>>56519822
>>56528009
how mad were you when harper lost?
>>56532821
You really got blown the fuck out.
Nate Silver is a DNC pet, he also shills for Hillary.
>>56533333
How?
>>56531816
Those campaigns fizzled with negative media publicity (like what is happening to Carson right now). Negative media coverage only seems to increase Trumps numbers.
>>56518088
This liberal hack is such a piece of shit.
>>56533378
he also perfectly predicts elections.
>>56527053
being this underage
>>56533045
TRUMP HAS BEEN ON TOP EVEN WITH THE FLUCTUATIONS
how can you not see this?
he's had his surges and dips, his opponents had their surges and dips, yet he is still at the top of the pack
>hes hated by the establishment
hes won over both gingrich and kekabee
i can not think of republican politicians that are more establishment than those two than maybe that faggot McCain and the Bushes.
and guess what? everyone hates them and everyone hates the establishment.
besides, the only reason candidates don't win without the establishment is they lose establishment funding. Trump is a billionaire, is self funding his own campaign, and has spent the least money of any candidate.
at this point you are just denying the obvious reality that Trump will probably be the nominee
>>56533518
Except when he doesn't.
>>56533602
you are definitely better at predicting and understanding presidential elections than nate silver the jew.
>>56533518
Like with the UK?
Fuck off kek
>>56533638
which ones were those?
>>56533518
>couldn't predict the republican takeover in 2014
>couldn't predict the British election
>perfectly predicts
>>56533482
I like how everyone ignore the second part of that post about party support.
Yeah Trump has been resilient in the polls, but polls are not fucking everything. They're more volatile, they're less accurate, they're increasingly harder to conduct.
Even if Trump survives Iowa and NH and all this shit, he's not going to win the nomination because at the very end when only 2 or 3 candidates are left, the establishment is going to throw everything against him. And you don't win if you're hated by the establishment. You don't have to be loved, but you're absolutely not allowed to be hated.
>>56518088
Trump will never get the nomination. Just like Sanders will never get it.
>>56532882
Trump is ahead, yeah, but it's totally still possible that Rubio cobbles together just enough to edge him out in NH and Cruz can pretty easily just take all of Carson's supporters in Iowa.
>>56533698
100% accuracy two american presidential elections in a row
Jewish "genius" gaming the system?
I am shocked, /pol.
>>56524046
I SAVED THE WALL OF ROMNEY FOR JUST SUCH AN OCCASION
>>56533801
Nice libfaggot tactic
You do your country proud
>>56531619
>unlikely to actually go to the voting booth
I switched parties just for Trump, and nobody polls me.
>>56533754
More volatile and less accurate than what?
Hes beating shillary heads up atm but your jewboy silver pretends hes inconsequential
>>56533900
my libfag tactic of giving you a fact that you don't like
>>56518088
>Silver
He's not taking into account that the establishment has no legit opponent to Trump and we're about 2 months from the Iowa caucuses. Trump already has New Hampshire in the bag, and if he wins Iowa it's over. I bet he thinks that Rubio will be a legit opponent lol, a young senator from Floria who support amnesty and has no serious legislating under his belt.
Like >>56519550 said, another Santorum surge is the only hope for the GOP, and he's harder on immigration than Trump is. He'll probably be the VP.
>>56532547
>>56532913
Maybe the primary, but Trump would get BTFO in the general if we're being realistic
>>56533754
except the establishment is warming up to him
Newt Fucking Gingrich likes him
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVxpLBL9X3U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63Y9wDJv_io
>>56533999
Nate Silver has a 0% success rate when it comes to elections*
*in the UK
see how easy it is?
>>56533602
The main indicator of establishment support is the amount of party endorsements. To give you an idea, Shillary, the ultimate establishment candidate, has more endorsements before the Iowa caucuses than any other candidate since 1980ö.
And Trump has pretty much nothing on that front.
Also it's not the money that makes candidates without party support fizzle out, it's because the party makes the rules. They select the delegates. If they're getting extremely desperate, they could literally rewritte them in the middle of the election process to get Trump out. It would be a scandal of course, but not without precedent.
>>56533719
2014 midterms and the most recent UK elections.
>>56534137
see how easy what is? posting?
>>56534086
>he actually thinks that people want shillary over trump
Trump could be the most unlikable ass in the whole country, and it would take only a single debate with Hillary to show how much of a lying cunt she actually is
when her script becomes useless, she contradicts herself every 10 seconds
its the same reason she lost to Obama
>>56529836
>posts shitty manipulated statistics by a liberal cocksucker
>expects an honest reply
I troll because of how little I regard Nate Silver and his bullshit work manufacturing numbers to provide the left with intellectual ammunition.
I don't have to debate compromised scientists. I can give them the finger and move on
>>56534096
Warming up is still a long way from official endorsing him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_for_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
If you check party support, there's not much for Trump.
>>56534467
>isn't much establishment support for Trump
It has already been established that voters give zero shits about the establishment this election. Try harder Nate.
>>56534222
he has Gingrich and Huckabee
only a small faction within the establishment actually hate him at this point.
hell Reince Priebus has even told republican staffers to leave the election alone.
the establishment is not going to risk pissing off their voting base and potentially throwing away the election just because the voters picked someone they don't prefer.
>>56520856
Oldfag here. You are spewing complete shit.
NO ONE here liked Romney. At all.
It was a board obsessed with Ron Paul. Literally zero support for Romney.
>>56534461
Where the fuck are you getting this idea, seriously?
That Silver has this goal with his work to actively support a candidate or that looking at data is fucking ammunition?
Saying Trump is unlikely to win the primaries given all we know about them for the last 30 years is not an attack on Trump.
>>56534555
>It has already been established
you would know wouldnt you?
OHHHH WAIT A MINUTE
Nate or someone from 538 is shitposting on /pol/ because it's the only way he can have his arguments torn apart and his thinking done for him without looking incompetent.
What better place to test your bullshit than the center of the meme universe
>>56534467
The Establishment still doesn't believe Trump will win, that's what he's doesn't have their support. I guarantee you, if Trump is still at at the top by late December or early January, he'll get plenty of endorsements. Probably more than Waterboy and Kekbowl.
>>56534677
Kek
>No models, only 2 charts
>Already been nothing but wrong this entire year
>Pretty much the same thing he said for months
So can we all agree that nate silver is a has been?
>>56534632
But it in fact is. Its stating that since he's not likely to win, basically why bother voting for him? His diatribes have consistently been trying to stump the trump as it were. So yes, when someone repeatedly tries to undermine you, it can be construed as an attack.
Trump will fall to the GOP kamikazeing to take him down. Once they start actually coming together to get him out of the race via billions in SuperPAC money and a rule-set deliberately created to benefit the establishment he will either quietly drop out or burn a GOP that would rather lose than put him as their candidate.
>>56519484
The main idea is that Trump alienates more people than any other candidate. Looking at polls, Trump has a very large group of very dedicated followers, but also a very large group of people who don't like him within the party.
>>56534555
Directly maybe not, but the party has influence everywhere. They can change public opinion not to mention if push comes to shove, they have the option to simply crack down.
>>56534591
It's not about Trump being someone they don't prefer, Trump is the absolute worst candidate for them. The party wants someone a) reliable, meaning they will represent republican party ideas and enacte republican agenda in office, and b) electable, meaning they can actually win in november.
Trump seems to be the worst candidate out of the field for both of these options so if (and that's a big if) Trump actually survives until the very end, it might get very ugly as the establishment will do anything to get anyone else in.
well he's insulted pretty much every American demographic except for wealthy white men (and possibly Asians?)
it was surprising that he was even doing this well in the first place
>>56534766
>implying he was ever anything to begin with
He got lucky twice, and only achieved and maintained prominence because he served as a useful idiot manufacturing information to advance the Left's agenda.
>>56534894
Most recent poll has him beating hilldog.
>>56534467
you dont need endorsements to win a primary
Yeb has the most endorsements and hes a wet noodle that is less popular than "undecided"
all trump needs to win the nomination is for teh establishment to like and/or fear him enough that they don't rig the primary.
>>56534467
>Jenna Jameson endorses Rubio
lel.
>>56534222
You are fucking retarded. The GOP isn't going to kill itself to stump Trump. The moment the RNC takes away a legitimate Trump win is the moment they declare war on the republican base, and that's not a war the party will win.
Do you really believe that anyone is "moderate" or even truly independent anymore. This country is so utterly partisan it's a joke. The only thing that decides the presidency is whoever is more popular one year from now.
>>56534997
I wouldn't be too sure about that. The party hates Trump and what he does to the image. The longer he stays in the race, the more he reinforces the image of the republicans as rich, white, racist assholes that they so desperately try to loose. And they know that even if by some cosmic coincidence Trump wins the primary and by a god-given miracle he actually wins the general election, it would be the end for the republican party. Why? Because after Trump, there's nothing. Nobody else could do what Trump is doing and succeed. A successful Trump would burn the bridges to the white house for decades.
So yeah, they would kill themselves to stump Trump.
>>56534894
they don't hate trump you idiot
they have their concerns but they're not going to shoot the party in the foot just because their voters disagree with the establishment
why the fuck do you think they freaked out when they thought he might run third party?
the republicans can't afford to lose this election and if trump gets the nomination, they'll bite the bullet.
>>56526827
>>56533846
daily reminder these images are specific divide and conquer posts
find the fracture points, and get the goyim to fight amongst themselves
>le historical revisionism!
look at your post number, 56 million something, your images, while they are impressive collages, are a joke
>>56535213
Sounds pretty retarded. 11 million less spics basically gives the RNC a edge for a decade if not longer.
>>56535213
>The party hates Trump
EXCEPT IT FUCKING DOESN'T
there is hardly a single republican politician left that thinks Trump damaging to the party.
all the ones that still do are unpopular keks anyways.
>>56519444
Checked.
Rubio is the most likely guy. Young, nominally not white, seems to be a better public speaker than Cruz.
Cruz is the most legitimately conservative candidate out there are notably smart, but he's too far right for the general election. The hope is that they'll put him on the Supreme Court.
Among the other candidates:
Bush is collapsing, not charismatic enough to gain ground, only chance is for everyone else to implode.
Carson: Too stupid outside of his field, interest is already fading. He's eating up the evangelical vote right now, but that's only good for Iowa.
Fiorina: already near the bottom, shit credentials.
Christie: Been stuck in neutral since scandals hit him in NJ, where he's hated.
Kasich: Too moderate to gain traction in the primary, he'll easily get the VP spot though. Kind of like Huntsman - he would probably win a general election against Hillary, but neither party is willing to move to the center despite it being a winning strategy.
Paul: the party hates him, and guys like Trump have eaten all of his anti-establishment oxygen. Shame, since he'd likely do well nationally. No traction at this point.
>>56535402
>there is hardly a single republican politician left that thinks Trump damaging to the party.
That must be why they show up at his rallies. You know, like politicians who support a candidate tend to do.
Oh wait, none have. Not even a natural ally like Steve King.
>>56534958
The same Fox News poll had Bush and Rubio beating Hilldawg by a bigger margin.
>>56535389
This. It was just people shilling for Romney to get replies. The same thing just happened in the Canadian election with Harper, even though the polls for the two weeks prior suggested a liberal victory was in the bag. You still had posts about "boy those liberals are sure going to be crying when it's four more years of Harper".
It's just /sp/ level trolling for teh epic lulz XD
>>56535213
The GOP did the same thing to Reagan, and now he's their patron saint, the republican party won't collapse with a Trump win, it'll just change the same way the party works, the same as what happened with Reagan.
>>56520384
Yeah I remember this. There's a 3000x3000 image somewhere just made up of "muh Mittens is gunna win, fuck Silverberg!" >>56533846 there it is.
>>56524046
What a crock of shite you're talking. How embarrassing.
>>56535392
It won't be enough for the votes lost due to every other candidate lacking Trump's "trumpness". Trump works right now because he's a unique combination. He's completely outside of the establishment which appeals to a lot of people, he speaks his mind which appeals to a lot of people, he's very successful which appeals to a lot of people, etc. There's only one Trump.
The damage a Trump presidency would do in the long rung (unless it turns out to be a presidency like the second coming of Reagan) is catastrophic. No other candidate would be able to offset the image damage done and those that might will not garner the establishment support and fizzle out since they lack Trump's personal war chest.
