I really love how HN has gone full butthurt from this:
https://medium.com/the-development-set/silicon-valley-s-unchecked-arrogance-d86cbb8db52
> people have no money to eat in many countries because of the lack of jobs and tiny salaries
> we're going to automate everything, so even less jobs are available
> then capitalists in shitty countries will go for UBI and everybody will be happy
> yay, California!
Automating jobs hurts only in the short term. Governments inability to adjust welfare programs should not be a constraint on automation.
>>53560677
...in developed countries
I do not suggest constraints, so does the author of the article above.
But shit really needs to be fixed instead of funding endless snapchats.
>>53560645
>full butthurt
not really, seems like they had issue with the fact that the article had no real proposals how to fix anything
ofc hn is a sv echo-chamber but the article's main point was that paul graham needs to check his privilege
some guy linked to this, which imo is the best response: https://blog.jaibot.com/the-copenhagen-interpretation-of-ethics/
>>53560813
>the article had no real proposals how to fix anything
Probably author made it too subtle but he offered to move to these questions instead of blindly praying for UBI to solve everything:
> How do we change ownership structures to prevent Snapchat, Instagram, and Whatsapp from distributing billion-dollar windfalls among only a couple dozen people? How can we enable great people, regardless of zip code, to solve messy societal problems?
Human world is broken on many levels. And it can't be solved by throwing money in its direction.
>>53560645
>yay, California!
I want the tech bubble to burst already. I want to live in nu-male capital but shits expensive yo
>>53560645
>being afraid of automation
you capitalists are silly
An unemployment malaise resulting from automation (and global trade) is a symptom of a failed education system that doesn't prepare citizens with higher-level skills.
Americans are pissed off that menial blue-collar jobs have been shipped to Asia, when they really should be pissed off that they were only ever taught to do mindless repetitive peasant/robot work.
Typical American vanity.
>>53560752
in theory automation should never be a negative.
if you can replace someone with a more efficient machine you should be able to pay his salary and increase your profit margins simultaneously.
of course private business will fight tooth and nail not to have to pay higher taxes to support minimum dignified living standards for the jobless and unskilled.
>>53562381
It's not just capitalism. Computers were illegal in the Soviet Union for years after WW2 because they were deemed exploitative worker replacements. As a result, Russia never developed a computer industry worth a damn and is still playing catch-up today.
If your core government system is failed because of technology outpacing it, you figure out a new system. Monarchy wasn't given much leg room when something new outpaced it, why should free market capitalism be considered so special that we need to still prop it up instead of find something new to build around?
In hindsight that sounds like some white nerd marxism talk, but even wholly disconnected from any one political ideal it still works. This is like getting mad about cars because now there isn't as many uses for horses in the world, the entire point is that we're moving forward enough in society to where we don't need mindless jobs and we can afford human beings existing for the sake of comfortably existing
>>53562866
The system as it works today has to stop working for the people who benefit most from it. That, or the people for whom it doesn't work need to be angry and numerous enough to threaten the former group. Those are the only circumstances under which government and economic structures change dramatically.
A higher minimum wage would fix this.
>>53562703
Do you have any concept of how jobs work? They won't just pay his salary for doing nothing. If his job is automated they have no need for him and they'll lay him off and pocket the salary.
If more and more things become automated, won't that require more and more people to build, maintain, and repair those systems? No, the real "scare" isn't that there's going to be a lack of jobs. There are, and will be plenty of jobs. The problem is that the skill and level of training has to be raised for a worker to remain relevant. I've lived in the South for a long time and I've seen a lot of people complain about this over the years. They refuse to accept the fact that the era of working straight out of high school for the local mill or the coal mine is over and done with. You cannot join the workforce of the future and remain technologically incompetent any longer.
>>53563429
A higher minimum wage would create higher incentive to automate low skill jobs. Anything that can be automated at or below minimum wage would be. At that point, the minimum wage doesn't help the people who can't find work at their skill level.
>>53560645
Since Henry Ford, automation was being developed to replace humans doing repetitive and physically demanding tasks with machines. Now Silicon Valley is working on automating another few branches of repetitive and menial tasks, so they can be done by soulless machines.
And it's a problem? Yes! Because our shitty turbo-capitalism doesn't allow for what the automation was originally intended for - giving us humans more time for creative tasks. Even though productivity is constantly increasing from year to year, we keep having to work harder and end up unsatisfied and fatigued.
I hate sounding like a college freshman after his first lecture on Marx, but the profits of increased productivity and automation is pocketed by a very marginal fraction of society.
When portions of society start fantasising about the 'simple life' and returning to the 'roots' (just be a sheep farmer or whatever), you might want to start thinking about what the hell is going on here ..
>>53560645
kek
I'm from a shitty country and the purpose of my life is basically to escape this shithole. I have been reading HN for years. My attitude towards them is somewhat ambivalent: I want to be one of them, and yet I clearly see that SV/app economy is a bubble. Still, there is hope in big SV companies, they invest into AI and robotics and their owners are pretty chill. I think it might be not bad living under deepmind's AI rule, especially considering my current circumstances.
>>53562703
>not to have to pay higher taxes to support minimum dignified living standards for the jobless and unskilled.
For me this entails that I should develop more marketable skills while acquiring more assets and property. From market's POV noskill human is just a piece of meat. I don't want to be a mere piece of meat.
>>53563485
One technician can service multiple machines. One machine replaces multiple human jobs.
>>53563505
>even more incentive to automate
The incentive is already there and it's already high. In a few short years we'll be seeing fast food restaurants that are glorified vending machines.
The problem isn't the automation. The problem is the ultra-rich god-capitalists creating and then controlling the entire lifeline of humanity.
>>53563704
I eagerly await the day I can go to McDonald's, order a McDouble and an apple pie, and get a McDouble and an apple pie that look just like the menu picture.
As opposed to today (literally today, at lunch) when I ordered that and got a lopsided McDouble covered in ketchup, and a small order of fries instead of a pie because the cashier couldn't parse my order.
>>53562703
Not necessarily true, the marginal benefit of the machine - the marginal cost of the machine does not have to equal the marginal cost of the laborer (his salary)
Remember, objectively it's cheaper for UBI to exist than not. Homelessness (along with all the dumb, worthless "job skill training" programs the US have that barely work) costs a fuckton of money long-term, giving someone a home that isn't being used by anyone and telling them "it's not much, but it's a safety net, so go take risks more freely" is fairly cheap.
This is supposed to be the end-goal of a society. We're SUPPOSED to be in a world where all the meaningless shit is sorted out, so that as humanity we can focus our effort on creative beauty and pushing even newer edges. Why is this suddenly an issue?
>>53563846
>Why is this suddenly an issue?
Because people disagree on how to accomplish that + political tribalism.
>>53563846
>Why is this suddenly an issue?
Because muh hard earned money, status etc (^:
Rich people like the status quo.
>>53563846
Because the people who want to establish this society see themselves as benevolent techno-dictators who will control the terms of the deal.
FUCKING SPINNING JENNY
>>53563633
>I'm from a shitty country
I smell DESIGNATED
>>53563981
Nah, its a bit better, still a shithole though. I live in the biggest country in the world, if only with large area came good quality of life...
Wanna some inside info? There really are two tiers of countries: The Rich First World and the shitholes. The thing is, every moderately smart/sane person that happened to be born in the shithole, including all the politicians and businessmen really want to emigrate. I want it as well. This means that rich/smart/powerful aren't even motivated to make these shitholes better places to live, they just suck money and escape. On the contrary, rich people from the first world are motivated to make their countries better because they don't have any other choice.
The world is running towards bifurication into super-rich and super-poor zones. I don't like this trend, but it looks like the only rational choice for me is to do my best at making sure I end up in the super-rich place.
>>53564044
Well, I live in a (semi)shithole too, so I understand where you are coming from. And my country suffers from quite a brain drain, and firms lament that they can't find trained workers (obviously they don't provide any training, people should train themselves).
My country it's slowly dying for the stupidity of its own people, it would be quite a show if I weren't stuck in it.
>>53563693
I can't think of a single machine that is built, tested, serviced, and maintained by only person. One machine requires multiple people to remain operational.
>>53564412
Basic logic still says automation can't create as many jobs as it replaces. If it creates an equal amount of jobs that it replaces, and all those minimum wage workers are now more educated, higher skilled technicians, they will be paid a higher wage and automation would not be profitable. Because the skill level of the jobs created due to automation is higher than the jobs being replaced, and higher skilled people get paid more, automation has to create less jobs than it replaces or else it will not be profitable.
>>53562535
This is a good point.
The people in power are only concentrating on what's going to happen during the next quarter and how to maximize the profits.
That's it.
No one is investing in people and we're going to start seeing some problems because of this short sighted thinking.
But there's another side to this.
It's not only the gov that's at fault.
Some responsibility has to be taken by the population out there.
The future problems that we'll be facing are also the fault of the people who aren't willing to educate themselves one damn bit, despite having limitless amount of information at our fingertips.
One google search will show you that automation is a very real thing and if someone is too stupid to figure out that packing meatloaf in a factory might be a dead field soon, then maybe this guy deserves to live the rest of his days with UBI.
>>53564498
At the moment automation seems to kill off 50% of required workforce.
At least when comparing the food redistribution centers that are getting built around here.
Old one that's getting shut down had 1500 workers and a new automated one needs about 700 workers.
Think it was only partly automated though, so a fully automated might need 300 workers, who knows.
One thing is for sure, the warehouse sector is going to be seeing some insane layoffs in the next 5 years and that sector employs a lot of low skilled people.
![kino_no_tabi_06[h264.vorbis][niizk].mkv_snapshot_19.05_[2016.02.21_22.51.41].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/jv80WVH.jpg "kino_no_tabi_06[h264.vorbis][niizk].mkv_snapshot_19.05_[2016.02.21_22.51.41].jpg")
>>53560645
That article sucked.
It literally made no point other than "I think your opinions are ~~~problematic~~~"
It didn't offer any credible evidence that the "myopic silicon valley" views it lampooned were at all factually wrong, and it didn't even come close to suggesting a solution to any of the problems it talked about.
I would even go so far as to say that the author of that article represents everything wrong with liberalist rhetoric today.
Please link to a stored copy of the article on archive.is instead next time so we don't feed wastes of space like him any more pageviews.
>>53562703
>in theory automation should never be a negative.
>he doesn''t make a distinction between Pareto improvements and Kaldor-Hicks improvements
>>53563438
>>Do you have any concept of how jobs work? They won't just pay his salary for doing nothing. If his job is automated they have no need for him and they'll lay him off and pocket the salary.
did you not bother to read my post? theoretical full automation is going to require that those with ownership of machines contribute a share of their productivity to the rest.
as i said, of course private business will fight any such measure; they will want full control over production, but we're going to need an economy that reflects new needs.
>>53563633
>>For me this entails that I should develop more marketable skills while acquiring more assets and property. From market's POV noskill human is just a piece of meat. I don't want to be a mere piece of meat.
that's fine if it's your personal objective but people have different priorities. in post-scarcity economy some folks will wanna be couch potatos and some will wanna enrich themselves even if they're not working, most will fall somewhere in between, and that's fine, the purpose of society adopting automation is so humans are free to work less.
>>53563760
right, but there will come a point in development of automation tech where it will be more cost effective to adopt even in developing countries due to demand for increasing salary with development and simple development of automation technology to be more cost-effective.
>>53563754
Even if the entire restaurant was automated, the McDouble wouldn't look as good as the menu picture. Even the models shown in advertising for pre-packaged foods are made out of plastic and post-processing effects.
>>53563485
We build robots that repair robots
>>53563953
YOU RUINED EVERYTHING
>>53560752
>...in developed countries
Although the working conditions are shitty people in lower income countries are now able to afford things such as healthcare. The meager wages seem terrible to developed countries but overseas that's a reasonable income. A gallon of milk in the US is around $3 but in some of these countries it'd be more like $0.25
>>53564703
>SV shill detected
>>53564634
But how much do you know about these food production centers? Because one may be of a different volume than the other. I would think that the more automated one would be of a lower volume if it's newer technology. Then there's less risk if it doesn't go as expected.
>>53560752
Honestly, I do not think it can be fixed, and will continue until it implodes (and it WILL implode). More and more money will be in fewer and fewer hands, and life will continue to get harder for the average person, both in the west, and worldwide. There are so many things going on right now that are unsustainable, and, as my old poly-sci prof quoted repeatedly, "What cannot go on forever, must come to an end."
>>53560645
Dude's projecting hard.
>I-I feel insecure because I don't work in silicon valley and don't want my skills automated
>Those nerds in California are just building another tower of babel !
>But I don't actually see anything specifically wrong with what they're doing...
>Better call them out on with some vague unsubstantiated claims like "unchecked arrogance" with this post on web 3.0 meme-site, that'll teach em
>So there’s the problem. How do we change this? We have some ideas, but would love to hear from you as well. And you can contribute to the conversation on social media with #ReinventVC!
I've got an idea, how about we fucking automate venture capital and get rid of your job
>>53563633
This. Automation will remove dead weight from society.
Why innovate and optimize if all of the overhead goes to untermenschen and illiterates?
They are not our problem.
>>53560752
well if we automate everything, then we can make an automated factory that makes more automated factories.
The government of one of these shitty countries can buy an automated factory, make more of them, and then retool them to provide UBI. Because said automatic factories self replicate, one can get an exponentially increasing amount of them.
>>53563754
>shit that never happened
Automating everything will make everything cheaper
Don't capitalists like that?
I mean if they kill all the jobs and make everything super cheap, it doesn't matter if no-one has any money to buy anything.
Can't have consumers if they don't have money.
So you agree with all other capitalists to give everyone a little money so they can fuel your profits.
>>53563429
higher minimum wage just makes it harder to land minimum wage jobs. this is a common fallacy.
>>53564938
I live in a shitty country and gallon of milk is... ~USD
Ah, it's great to have job security. Good thing art can't be automated.
>>53569648
Art's just applied mathematics, sure it can.
>>53569648
about as secure as a high level software position.
>>53564938
The problem is when you live in a shitty country and the gallon of milk costs about 2.65USD..
The general rule is that in underdeveloped countries the salaries are just enough to pay your food and maybe your rent. What is taken for granted in developed places, like nice clothes, TVs, smartphones and cars, are obtained through expensive debt. And I mean really expensive. In Brazil, Credit Card interests are usually over 500%/year.
The point is that meager salaries sucks everywhere.
>>53564938
>The meager wages seem terrible to developed countries but overseas that's a reasonable income.
except what happens is that people get up and move to a OECD country because they are sold on the dream that is more like a nightmare when they have their first oh shit moment.
>$3 gallon of milk
And that is the subsidized price by the US Dept of Agriculture. If it wasn't for government programs milk would be way over $4.50 a gallon. Also people in developing countries don't normally buy their milk in volumes of a gallon because, muh refrigeration and muh cold supply chain
The only real 15-20 year solution to the economic effects of AI and automation is basic incomes. Nobody likes the idea though except for people who have a clue about what's in the automation/AI pipeline. The super rich don't want their taxes raised, the middle and lower class think that they'll maintain 30-40 year careers like their parents did.
When this shit starts coming, people are going to be begging for basic income. It has to happen, or the vast majority of people are going to starve. Either that or we'll have some fucked up future where it's common for the ultra rich to have 20 wives, 100 children, and plots of land the size of Delaware.
>>53564044
Sounds like we need imperialism again to solve this Rich Man's Burden.
>>53570698
When it does happen.
For now we have human workers.
>>53572129
Sounds like you need to get Statism'd, cuck.
Plain and simple, in the modern age, knowledge really IS power and the embarrassing truth is that a huge chunk of the US population is severely lacking in that department, due in part to the shitty education system but ALSO because people have become complacent and expect their menial labor employment to exist forever.
We're headed into a transition to a world where humanity as a whole no longer has to struggle to survive. A Roddenberry-esque future for our species is a distinct and plausible possibility. However, we're not going to arrive there immediately - it's going to take time and serious growing pains to get there. Many will suffer, and I don't think there's any way around it. The best we can do is ease the pain until our destination is within sight.
