Which gambling? If you're betting against the house, the house always ends up ahead eventually.

If you're playing something like poker, then maybe.

Over a long enough time line with enough samples, you will lose against the house. Table limits guarantee this.

I'd say poker is the only game where you could make a profit long term, but you'd need to invest a significant amount of time learning to play the game.
There's a lot to know about how to play what hand from which position while considering the types of opponents at your table. It's not "just math" as shitters will try and tell you.

>>1359030
You are absolutely gauranteed to lose.

Everyone who gambles loses, 100% of the time always and forever.

Everyone who invests in stocks loses.

If you sit on your money, inflation eats you.

If you start a business it will fail.

We're all going to die.

poker is beatable by normal humans up to like 1/2 online but it'll take a year of consistent study to get good enough to win.

Depends on what you're gambling on. You MIGHT be able to pull it off on sports or horses if you spent as much time studying it like a full time job. At the tables, forget it.

1/2 live tables are easy as fuck and you can make a living wage on them

online is bullshit don't even try

>>1359392
Yeah, but the lottery is a good bet, right?

>>1359030
>gambling
It's pretty much a science, you can select the form of gambling that suits your projected loses. Sports betting and the track are typically the slowest ways to bleed out, you get about 90% of your money back if you are good, lotteries at the other end of the spectrum are about 10% then everything in between. Casinos are built to make so much money per square foot if you are into the science of it all.

>>1359030
poker you can make consistent returns

all other casinos game you will lose in the long run, stay away

>>1359030
OP if you want to gamble at a casino learn ways to beat the casino. Watch the payouts on slot machines and if Noone has won money in a while it is set to payout. Learn to count card which is not hard. The hard part is counting cards in a way that is not obvious. You often need partners to get counting cards to work and casinos combat this by using 8 or more decks of cards. Craps is the casino game with the highest chances of payout of any legitimarely played casino game besides if you know how to count cards.
Roulette will eat your money over time unless you somehow can build a machine and hide it that relies on physics formulas to determine what part of the board a ball will land in depending on where the ball was dropped and how long it takes for the roulette table to complete a rotation. Or you know you could just keep doubling your bet on red until your win your initial bet back as profit... but that can be dangerous and casinos usually have betting limits to prevent variance from destroying their profits when people hit it big once in a while.

The thing with casinos is their games work like scratch off lottos or mega millions. Probability dictates the house will win in any gambling situation which it is always advised to learn how to get an edge over the house. It is not illegal to count cards or devise a machine that can calculate winning bets for you. However casinos reserve the right to throw anyone out or ban anyone for any reason so you better learn how to stay under the radar. If you win enough money and are caught you can even get a worldwide casino ban. If you are smart and study stocks you can win money in the stock market.

Ill keep saying
Wizard of odds
Till you suckers learn

something in which the odds are stacked only partly towards the house, and more on a player-to-player basis, has more potential for profit on account of the fact that other players are typically not as consistently expert in economics and statistics as to warrant a constant odds against you winning some money. in other words, humans fuck up, get rash, panic, get scared, get confident etc and this impairs judgement, especially where money is concerned, and more so if its your source of income. when the whole table is making silly mistakes, that's when you can rake in money. even when the whole table is fairly proficient at the game, you still have a better shot than against the house.

if you play something like a one armed bandit you are definitely going to lose money. the house is operating on an optimized business model designed by statisticians, accounting for more factors than you could even think of, in order to provide the highest possible profit to them, and they implement it in such a way as to keep people coming back ie affordable yet substantial payouts.

pick the game which has the least house involvement and relies more on out-judging other players, if you are good at that kind of thing. the house always wins, always, but the house doesn't have the opportunity to take all your money as consistently as other, human, players.

>>1359030
im a poker pro
ama bud

the pros just exploit situations where they can wager within the confines of a situation where the player has the mathematical edge. over enough samples it always eventually balances out to what it is suppose to be. usually that is manifested in the house's 52% or so edge for various games and situations.

so in sports that is getting a +ev wager which has an accurately as possible predicted percent chance of winning cross-referenced to the payout and if you have the edge by that measure then it is not the house having the edge.

many professional gamblers will look for slot machines or video poker machines that are either programmed poorly mathematically or that have some feature as a draw for people to play it where they are the ones with a 53 or so percent chance to win and they will just keep playing it over and over and over until the universe balances out enough how it will for them there.

>>1359030

Yes, you have two possible routes...

Become a decent poker player and play low stakes cash games at a casino (not online - competition is much harder).

OR

Take advantage of arbitrage betting opportunities to secure consistent winning on sports bets no matter the outcome...

http://learntobeyourownboss.com/arbitrage-betting-opportunities

>>1359970
And once again

>dude everything's rigged xD

How insightful

>>1359452
hahaha
thanks anon, i needed a good laugh

>>1360768
you'd be surprised at how far rigging goes. not in the sense of cards being dealt a certain way, just certain horses in a stable

>>1359030

If your intuition is so reliable as to make a living on gambling you should just trade stocks and asset manage and you will be the next Warren Buffet.

>>1359437
As someone who's done sports betting for years, anything can happen when you bet on the spread. See: the 2016 wildcard game between the Vikings and Seahawks.

>>1359030
I play Blackjack most weekends to bring in extra cash. I play on a $25 table at a casino in Australia. I bet minimum to start with. If I have 3 losses in a row, I'll jack my 4th bet to $100. If I lose on the 4th, I leave the table. Never chase your bets, you will always lose. Also don't be greedy. If you having a great game continue past being up $600- $700. If it's an average game of back and forth and you're up by $600- $700, leave and go home. Always remember that $600- $700 for a couple of hours of your time, is as much as some people make in a week.
Also, only play what you're willing to lose.

>>1359452
is this a serious question

>>1361343
Uh.......yeah.
I, uh, also hear that the quickest way to da moon is by using "Robin the Hood".
Something, something, CERU my Nubian brothers

>>1360941
I get the general strategy behind it. What is the lowest you'll stay/hold? Does it depend on the one dealers card that's facing up?

>>1359030
Mathfag here.

Statistically, if you just play the casino's games of chance, no, it is not possible to consistently make money. For most casinos, blackjack is the game which has the lowest house edge, but it still favours the casino, even when playing optimally. Card counting used to be a legitimate strategy to turn the tables in your favour, but these days casinos mitigate that by using multiple decks and reshuffling after every hand, which is part of the reason why they're much more lenient regarding card counting these days (because it just doesn't work anymore). Most other games have a higher house edge, meaning you lose more money over a large number of bets.
If you're playing games of skill, then absolutely, you can consistently make money (as long as you're better than the other players).

You could also do sports betting, which might be a legitimate way of consistently making money through the use of arbitrage.
Arbitrage happens when the odds set by two different bookmakers differ enough that placing a bet on outcome A happening with one bookie and placing another bet on outcome A not happening with the other bookie results in a guaranteed profit.
For example (you will never see odds this drastically different), bookie 1 says that the odds for A are 1:1 (if you bet $100 and A happens, you get your $100 back and also get another $100). Bookie 2 says the odds for A not happening are 2:1 (if you bet $100 and A does not happen, you get your $100 back, plus $200). Here, you should place a $100 bet on A happening with bookie 1 and any bet between $50 and $100 (exclusive) on A not happening with bookie 2. If A happens, you lose less than $100, but gain $100 from the bet, thus ending up net positive. If A does not happen, you lose $100, but gain more than $100 from the bet, thus ending up net positive as well.
Arbitrage is becoming more and more rare these days because bookmakers have been making odds closer and closer across the board.
1/2

>>1361368
2/2
However, my father knows a man who made money off of arbitrage in the mid-2000s. He says that he just looked at the odds for the very small sports (field hockey or something, I dunno), where there will be few bettors so the bookmakers will likely be less consistent on their odds pricing.

Finally, if you live in the US, you can use PredictIt or other betting services to bet on non-sports things. PredictIt is US and world politics, and if you follow this closely then you should do well (I have a friend who just graduated high school a few months ago who made $200 in a week on this site). You can also bet on other random stuff frequently, like Big Brother.

For these type of odds-based bets, if you can't find arbitrage and aren't completely certain of an outcome (technically you never should be), then I recommend using the Kelly criterion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion).


>>1361360
No, of course the lottery isn't a good bet.

>>1361373
>the lottery isn't a good bet.
How about Keno?
Or Plinko?

>>1361458
If I remember correctly, Keno has one of the highest house edges among all casino games.
I'm not familiar with Plinko.

don't bother with table games other than poker (and even then)

its only good as an easy way to throw away your money, it is a lot of fun though so once you start you can get addicted to it easily. The allure of easy money and when you're behind the thought that just one lucky deal could win you your money back really taps into something primal.

I've wasted far too much money at the blackjack tables that I could have better spent elsewhere, just stay away.

>>1360768
Its not even about that. The site literally tells you what you can expect to win/lose over a large enough period of time for each game.
It just so happens that there is no casino game that has a positive expected outcome.

>>1361526
B-but, what if I win. I just need like 25-30k..how the fuck do I start to make my money work for me when I don't make enough to invest properly and I have no real skills to sell?

>>1361526
In many live casinos the rake is so high, that a decent winning player can become a losing player. And you play maybe 20 hands per hour. Online is the only way to go if you are serious about making $ in poker.

>>1361551
sorry but using a casino to get rich quick is little more than a fantasy, you're much likelier to end up in worse shape than you are now

>>1361552
>>1361552
>>1361552
Those electronic poker tables where you sit down and it deals electronically.
Went on a cruise ship and it had a preflop rake, and overall rake of like 9%.
So bad, they were getting theirs.

>>1361558
Yeah some casinos take rake plus an hourly tax as well.
Only go to a casino to have fun and blow some cash, if you are into that lifestyle.

>>1361556
I don't even care if it's illegal. I need it. I've been looking into some fucked up shit to get started but fuck once you go there's no looking back.

>>1361567
What the hell do you need this money so badly for anyway? Wealth is nice and all but its not worth going to prison, get a hold of yourself.

>>1361575
Its for my own fuck up. It's embarrassing to say even on a Japanese image board, it's so bad that I've been contemplating suicide on a day to day basis for 6 years. It isn't for wealth, though. It's for a vast improvement in my waking life, professionally and socially.

>>1359030
Counting card in Blackjack gives a 0.5-2% marginal for you depending on the technique. For the other games, house has an advantage.

>>1361580
well now that you've built it up this much you have to tell

you are anonymous after all

>>1361598
You're right I'm a pussy. I need emergency dental care right now. The pain is bad, but psychologically it's debilitating. I can't laugh, smile, even open my mouth to raise my voice for something. It's bad, really bad. I would love a fucking handout but it would be even better knowing I conquered the most excruciating phase of my life.. Whether it be legal or not.

>>1359489
>Watch the payouts on slot machines and if Noone has won money in a while it is set to payout

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

>>1361368
>>1361373
Do you have any experience using Rebelbetting?

>>1361606
how the fuck do you not have insurance

>>1359970
Even learning basic-strategy in BJ there's always a house edge. And those fuckers shuffle autoamticly on every hand everywhere now..

I don't see how can one beat the casino on BJ with counting cards anymore. Of course, without using ""other methods""

>>1360941
I'm looking at playing at Melbourne's Crown.

PLaying the way you say doesn't sound much different that doing the same schema of betting on roulette though

>>1361611
Hadn't heard of it until now, but after looking into it, it seems neat, althought admittedly I'm skeptical. I imagine that it wouldn't be hard to check their software before placing a bet though, so I might try it out.

>>1360747
>arbitrage betting

I make money with sports betting for over ten years now and I advice everyone to not even try this shit.
It is not worth the risk and the time you need to invest in this betting method. Bookies can just limit you and they will do it, especially if you bet thousands of dollars and win. I never met one successful arbitrage better.

>>1362091
How do you make money from sports betting then? Matched betting or just knowing a shitload about the teams etc.?

>>1362148

I only bet on one sport, football (soccer).

Mostly it comes down to knowledge of teams and the variables involved with each individual team (i.e Injured/suspended players, current form, playstyle) .

I won big on the Iceland vs England match, even though England are theoretically a superior team, the manager sucked, his formation sucked and clearly the players werent that passionate about playing to win. One England player even said he'd rather be partying than playing.

Iceland however you could see their passion, most players play for shit clubs and this was clearly the biggest occasion of their footballing career. When compared to the chronic chokers of England, it was a simple bet.

So indepth knowledge is needed to win consistently.

>>1362177
Also to be quite honest, anybody with an objective mind could see that Iceland would win. England is the single most overrated team in international football. They've won one World Cup 50 years ago, have never won a Euro Cup or even made it to the finals, couldn't beat Russia or Slovakia, their 2014 World Cup performance was 26th of 32 (which included a tie with Costa Rica). Frankly, betting against England is a smart bet.

>>1362075
Do you know if there's a way to disguise your identity consistently when trying to do arbitrage? I have a feeling that, the decreasing odds aside, the main obstacle to making money from this is the fact that they'd just ban your account when you started making too much money, but if you had several accounts even on the same website, you might still be able to get away with it for a while.
The main problem with that is that you would eventually need to provide some form of ID, and while I haven't figured out a way past that, I'm sure SOMEONE out there has come up with a solution.

>>1362283
You will never be able to use arbitrage on one website. Arbitrage uses the odds differences between MULTIPLE bookies (e.g. Betfair and William Hill), because one bookmaker will never be stupid enough to have odds on one match that guarantees a profit.

>>1362375
I know, I'm talking about having multiple accounts on multiple sites, as opposed to just one per site.

>>1359030
The best two games you can play for having the odds mostly in your favor are Blackjack, which is against the house, and Craps, which is played against other people.

Everything else is more likely to fuck you in the ass. And unless you're good at it, poker will likely be a losing game for you.

>>1362405
>Craps, which is played against other people
Wot

>>1359043

There hasn't been any money in poker for nearly decade. Everyone is good now. Too many sharks not enough fish.

>>1362400
Why would you do this though? I see absolutely no benefit for it.

>>1362519
So if one account gets banned, you can still use the site with another.

>>1359030
Don't gamble, stupid.

>>1359392
>Everyone who gambles loses, 100% of the time always and forever.
If it worked that way, it wouldn't exist. It's just that your odds are shit and the house is stacked against you. There are maybe 1-2 cardgames you can questionably/ethically you could push beyond a 50/50 w/l with if you were a mathematical genius and dedicated your life towards it. Not worth it.

>Everyone who invests in stocks loses.
See above. Most people who invest wind up doing worse than the entire market though. It's statistically safer to just invest straight into an entire market than memeing around on stocks.

>If you sit on your money, inflation eats you.
True

>If you start a business it will fail.
Depends on the business, but mostly true. Always wanted to open a restaurant, but I'll never bother when the failure rate is nearing 99%.

>We're all going to die.
Also true.

>>1362177

i feel bad for being funemployed, i predicted italy to beat belgium (because belgium were ranked #1 even though its just stat padding) and i thought it was the lock of the year (and it was) and i just got fuming mad that i missed out. i think italy was priced @ 3.8 to win or something of the sort, and I would of jumped on @ 3 just because international football tournaments have bad odds from yuppies not knowing anything about sports

>>1362613
Why would an account get banned?

>>1362873
Oh for fuck's sake, are you serious?

>>1362901
Yes, I am. I don't think you understand how arbitrage works, nor how betting sites work.

>>1362652
Card counting doesn't take being a math genius to do, actually.

>>1362937
Card counting doesn't work anymore. Casinos use multiple decks and reshuffle after every hand.

Current casino employee here, I work as a security supervisor. EVERYONE LOSES no exception even the best poker players have 1-3 winning days out of a week, the rake will kill your winnings no matter what. You will always lose unless you are a mathematical genius and even then your odds are pretty bad. I have seen genius level millionares lose the clothes on their backs in an attempt to recouperate losses. All people who play lose gambling along with lotterys are a tax on the poor and the stupid. DONT FUCKING DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!

>>1362924
Go on then. Explain.

>>1363018
Because you're betting on multiple sites, your win patterns won't be suspicious to one site in the least. For the sake of this discussion, let's just assume that there are only 2 bookies. For one, your strategy will more than likely match millions of other bettors, betting on A happening. We'll just say that this bookie is always optimistic and gives good odds for A. For the other, your betting patterns will match millions of other bettors, betting on A not happening. This bookie is not as optimistic on A.
You will mostly win, sometimes lose, with the first bookie, mostly lose, sometimes win, with the second. Nothing suspicious.

>>1363019
Then how do people get caught?

>>1363028
I have never heard of anyone getting caught pursuing arbitrage. Just don't make exorbitantly large bets and you'll be fine I guess.

>>1361558
Cruise ship population is so bad though, pretty easy to beat 9% though whether you have enough days to do it is another question.

>>1363032
You've never heard stories of people's accounts being limited?

>>1363035
Not really, I don't really frequent gambling circles. I only know one guy who ever tried arbitrage, and he made money off of it. Again, just don't bet a fucking ridiculous amount of money or something.

>>1363037
Nigger this shit happens constantly. Just go on ANY site dedicated to arbitrage and they'll tell you that's an inevitability after a certain amount of time, even if you keep your bets relatively small. That's why I was asking about creating separate accounts on the same betting site, to ensure that you can continue to bet reasonable amounts after you've been limited to miniscule amounts.

Wouldn't say I'm a pro gambler but have done okay in the past 3 years (around £20k profit, though could've made more had I not followed big tipsters early on and got several 365's banned in quick succesion, theres an art to it...

Anyway I'll post this from a previous thread about gambling, any questions I'd be happy to answer:

>>1363043

Yeah I've had loads of accounts limited, opened in friends/ families names and had those limited as well. Bookmakers are more likely to limit or close accounts if they detect certain betting patterns, the most obvious being you follow a succesfull tipster or pool (I forget the name for these, but they work slightly differently from tipsters) other things is if you are just betting on low liquidity games ie, Russian 3rd division, which was known as a bit of a gold mine on bet365 a few years back when they could not price it correctly to save their lives.
They also limit for arbitrage traders but I have no experience of this myself. Generally you can make £10k betting on the English Premier League and they are unlikely to limit you because they fully expect variance to kick in and you to be -EV, infact you can be limited without making any money. Most bookmakers keep an eye on certain accounts, interestingly if you open up an account as a female they instantly monitor this account because they know people will get their gf's, mothers etc.. to open accounts on their behalf's.

The most likely to limit and the quickest is Bet365, but it's also the quickest to make money with because of the huge amounts of markets and amount they're willing to lay, a pro gambler would probably be willing to pay £150-£200 for a "clean" bet365 account.
William Hill is pretty decent, forget the lays as it's been so long since I've had a clean one but they are decent, few hundred on low league AH markets at least, also they never limit losing accounts, one of the few to do this.
I made a bit of money out of sports betting, could've made more, haven't done well in asia or pinnacle, and exchanges can't really get much money down. But if you have any questions about expectations or whatnot I'd be happy to answer, gambling has always interested me, I'm a part time poker player nowadays, prefer it to sports betting and is definitely more of a long term viable option.

>>1363044
How much do you think you could make off of arbitrage in a year, assuming you put full effort into it and had multiple accounts after your other ones get limited?

Also, how did you manage to make separate accounts on the same betting site?

>>1363050
I've not really looked at arbitage too much but from what I'm aware of most of the arbs are done with exchange prices, thus you won't be able to get too much down, but I think a few hundred a month is perhaps achievable, having a background in actual sports betting arbing does seem like a wasted account to me but I guess some people don't like to think to make money.
>Also, how did you manage to make separate accounts on the same betting site?
Set them up in friends and families names, also if you set up a skrill in their name it's easier to get money in and out. Knowing how to open new accounts safely and keep them open for as long as possible is something you have to learn.

>>1363079
Premierbet
CanBet
666bet

The house doesn't always win. Also the house winning doesn't equal everyone who isn't the house losing.

>>1363093
>the house doesn't always win
sure, not every single time, but in the long run, the house always wins.

>>1363121
I gave three examples where the house didn't win lol. "The house always wins" is a pretty dumb phrase by what it implies tbph

>>1363129
You gave 3 betting websites. The phrase "the house always wins" refers to games of chance that one can find in a casino.

>>1363154
People also use it to refer to bookmakers

>>1363195
I've never heard it used in that context, but I won't argue.

>>1362405
Craps is against the house as well.

>they weren't on TEH fix

TEARS
E
A
R
S

>>1363079

This.
It's so simple. If you wan a make money through gambling, just be the house. Dunno how you become a legal casino though

>>1359030
When gambling against a casino, on average you will lose money. Otherwise casinos couldn't turn a profit.

Only way around it is to game the system (card counting or the like) or play against other single people where your individual skill matters more.

>>1362652
>Most people who invest wind up doing worse than the entire market though
>It's statistically safer to just invest
I am now convinced

>>1359030

My math instructor was a doctor of mathematics and said 21 had a 5% chance to win as opposed to all other types of games which were 1%.

He loved to use card counting and shit as real life examples.

>>1361364
I'll sit on 15 if the dealer has a non picture card. Flip at 15-16 if dealer has a picture card. Always split a double number, but never a picture. That's my tip.
I'm not much of a Roulette player, but if your betting Black/Red the strategy would work the same.

I play poker for a living and this is definitely possible with a bit of discipline.
You'll need to grind your way up the stakes though, be prepared to spend 15hours a day watching videos, replaying sessions and playing, if you're ok and run good, in a year you're in 0.5/1

>when you run into KK every time you have QQ
>when you run into the ace high flush every time you have the king high flush
>when you run into the higher straight when you have mid straight
>when you run into a higher set when you flopped top set

teh variance is real

>>1364433
That's bad play. If you're good enough to put money on it, you should be good enough to read a table.

There is no such thing as an 'invested' hand. You can always fold.

>>1364439

Not really true past a certain point. If your opponent is just a bit balanced, often you don't really have the chance. Of course there are occasions where you make mistakes but variance IS a bitch for everyone, there is no way around that

>>1364439
you speak like your results oriented
>you can always fold quads ya know
>i mean, there ARE two aces out there, and he COULD have AA

>>1364445
If you get slow rolled one or two times, or even get caught with your pants down, you can't help that. That's the gambling part of the game.

If it happens consistently, you're a shitty player.

That's all I'm saying.

>>1364459
You can fold quads. It would be pretty stupid, but there is literally nothing stopping you.

That's kinda the point that no one gets. There is nothing in this world that forces you to do anything.

This is getting a bit philosophical, and I agree with your sentiment, but I tell people I work with all the time "if you're unhappy doing what you're doing, just don't do it, no one is forcing you." You might lose your job or lose some friends or miss out on an opportunity, but the opposite might also happen. It's really about choice.

I'm not trying to sound like a douchebag, even though I probably do, but you have to ask yourself, do you want to win 100$ a week forever, or one big score? I'd rather the consistency. But that's me.

>>1359443
>1/2 live tables are easy as fuck and you can make a living wage on them

Pretty much this provided you don't get a few fellow grinders at the table. Was grinding 1/2 living in Vegas while in between regular gigs and did well as far as keeping a roof over my head, the bills paid and having a bit of a profit. When the the proverbial drunken clueless tourist sat down it was like being gifted with free money.

>>1364468
there's a maxim in poker
>no player will fold a full house

except for extreme nose bleeds and only the most major tournaments, the maxim holds true.

>100 a week

My best average was 4k a week.

>>1364488
>My best average was 4k a week.

Yes, I literally meant 100$, It wasn't just a random number I used for expressive purposes at all.

Learn the basics of poker and start with low stakes live limit games. Like 1 2 or 2 4. Players in these games tend to call waaay to often. Play a very tight and aggressive strategy meaning only play top 10% hands but when you have those hands play them very aggressively (which the possible exception of trapping with the nut in a multi 3+ player situation where another player is leading and you are trying to keep the 3rd player in the hand) this is a very simple strategy designed to take advantage of player tendencies in low stakes limit games.

>>1364508
Provided people are opening and calling the typical $6 in 1/2 you can speculate every once in a while to see the flop with lesser cards.

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.moneypunter.com/registry/&usg=ALkJrhj5u_kT5xkgmVBBdhWc-EagcoLapA

http://false-favourites.co.uk/blog/laying-the-field-with-this-deadly-effective-strategy-for-low-risk-profits/

we're on the Betfair Blackjack Exchange.

so here is the situation you have to wait for:
there are 4 hands plus the dealer. 3 hands already stand. No one of these 3 hands should have 5 cards charlie because that's what we'll bet on.

so there are 1 hand and Dealer Hand.

There must not be any ace involved in any of these two hands.

each score(at least for my way of playing) should be between 7 and 9 FOR BOTH HANDS.

- we trade on "One or more has 5 cards" Market.

at this time, as the two hands can have a five card charlie , and they both have a pretty low score, the odd should be between 6 and 9-10.
Because betfair gives us the odd if ANY OF THESE TWO HANDS HAVE 5 CARDS, and that's the key.

The key is to back, the round after, this way we don't care if dealer gets five card.

if for example just the dealer could have 5 cards, the odds would be much higher.

the point is that WE LAY AN ODD FOR ANY OF TWO HANDS GOT 5 CARDS, BUT WE ONLY LAY FOR ONE HAND.

of course it's not a 100% win technique, but i think we're statistically winning in the long term

>>1364462

What I meant is that you are playing against ranges of hands and not against the hand you believe most likely at that specific moments.

If your hand is EV+ against said range, calling is always the best option regardless of the outcome on the short run.

Sometimes, more often that I'd like, it just happens that you run continuously against the top of Vilain's range. It also happens the other way around of course, but on the short term can make anyone lose a lot of money, regardless of how much they crush the field.

Of course, if variance is your excuse to everything, you're a shitty player.

>make post about losing QQ to coolers
>run QQ into suckouts afterwards

>>1364729
online i would say its better to play range v range but when you play live, if you're good at reading people, you can play "perfect poker" or at least try to.

>>1364757

Well idk, from my perspective you would still be evaluating Vilain's range to make a decision, you're just able to narrow it down much better than you would online because low stake live is full of caricatural recreatives.

For istance folding KK preflop is allegedly always a mistake but you can definetly find good reasons to do so, live or not if you know vilain is always pushing AA/KK. You fold because is range is crushing you, information that you got because you can read him so well.

HUSNG are definitely the way to go imo, lowest variance around and can table select very easily, also Sharkystrator is really great, especially for $15 - $30, above that and you are unlikely to find many donks. But definitely more approachable than cash games for the starting player imo.

>>1364554
>>1364563
>>1364653
What the fuck is this

>>1365031

Its a waste of time, at low stakes the game is hardly beatable and rackback is meh, at higher stakes its reg infested and traffic is dead

Also, if you want to get a decent traffic, you'll have to play turbo, not so sure the variance is so low.

Its a lot of work to put in with virtually no chances of winning a confortable revenue no matter how good you become.

>>1365181
The game is extremely beatable at micros, 53% itm for hypers and 55% for turbos itm, for stars that is, I think 888 is a bit higher and idk others. Probably the easiest to learn as you bascialy just have to adjust to opponent and learn two positions, OTB and OOP, also at the lowest micros it's calling station central, I guess I'm not making much but hitting 65% itm with ease for last year or so, but I just play for fun really, cash games never really suited me.

>>1364433
Yeah a lot of those are foldable and most of those situations are rare. QQ against KK doesnt happen very often. Set over set is also super rare. In a cash game I have rarely ever folded QQ preflop unless I am in an all in situation for a lot of chips or I have a great read on a super tight player. In a tournament it is a lot easier to fold but for my gamestyle what works for me is not giving away the fact I have a high pocket pair. 3 betting preflop is a good way to give away the strength of your hand. The problem with letting people know you have AA, KK or QQ is the people who will call with anything just to see if they can catch a set, 2 pair or straight on the flop knowing they can get maximum value out of you. Catching a K high flush is totally foldable in the right situation. Having a low str8 vs a high str8 is also foldable. It is only a small difference between a good player and a winning player and knowing when to fold a solid hand is one of them.

>>1364462
Thats not what a slow roll is. You are thinking of slow play.

>>1365031
HU games are heavily botted. I am not saying its impossible to beat a bot but its a lot easier to beat a fish. If you want to play online SNG, the game you should be playing is Bovadas zone poker. It allows you to play a ton of hands in a short amount of time.

>>1365181
Kinda agree here. I switch off between online and live games often. Online is a little harder but you can make money more quickly but live games are much easier yet its a grind.

>>1365241
I gotta think the $1.50 games I'm playing are not that botted, if they are they are terrible bots. The only worse players I've seen are in the Spin n' go games but they have pretty terrible rake, though I'm sure even they are beatable at the lowest.

>>1365267
You're probably right. I guess it depends on what site you are playing on. You ever have any problems with sharkystrator? I remember hearing a horror story a while ago where someone was placed in a $5000 HU game when he was looking for like a $60 game lmao. It could be he just messed up the settings?

>>1365295
Well SS can only joins games that you have on in filters cos it looks for the colour that you've marked a player, then joins that game depending on who's in the cue in the program, I used to use it but just play 70% $1.50 and 30% $3 now so don't really need it. Also you can leave HU games before they start, lots of the top regs will never play each other even if one wants to. Some players just sit in the top tables all day waiting.

>>1364433
Quit playing pokerstars, brah.

>>1364439
If you're going to be folding those hands, you're not ready to play poker.

>>1359030
Hi, Vegasfag here. I worked in the casino industry for about 9 years and frequently pop up in gambling threads as an expert. Allow me to clarify

The fact of the matter is that the odds are inherently against you. Everybody here knows why and how, so I wont waste your time explaining. The only bet in the house that has no house edge would be taking or laying odds on craps. Problem is you're not going to be able to take or lay odds without first placing a flat bet on the pass/dont pass/come/don't come (and that flat bet has a house edge in it of itself), unless somebody playing next to you allows you to take your odds on their flatbet (not likely)

Contrary to popular belief, poker is no better than any table game because of the rake. The house does not let you play on their table for free, you have to throw over 1$, 2$ 5$ or however much per game depending on the house and the table. Even though you are not playing against the house, they still collect their share of the pot which still takes a toll on you no matter how you look at it

Despite all the afformentioned, I have known a handful of professional gamblers over the years. The vast majority of them stuck to poker. And sadly, theirs was not the life of fast cars, beautiful women, tournaments with players from all over the world and million dollar showdowns with their career long rivals at the Bellagio. On average, they probably only profited ~$30,000 a year

The professional poker players who are not competitive champions, tournament goers and regulars at the world series are nothing but simple opportunists. Their income mostly comes from preying on the weak. They may be out and about for entire days at a time jumping from one casino to the next searching for an easy target (a fish they are known in poker). Usually when they do find one, they try and take them for as much money as they can as, as quickly as possible, and then scurry off before anyone at the table can adapt to their strategy.

Cont.

>>1365334
You ever thought about upping your limits? If you win consistently at micro stakes you should be playing higher level games imho. If it doesnt work out you can always drop back down.

>>1365367
Many people who do this as a profession know each other and have gentleman's agreements to avoid one another's table and/or prey whenever possible

As far as playing against the house goes, once again it's mostly about seizing opportunities while you have the chance. When new casinos open up, their surveillance team usually is not on their A-game for opening night as they are not familiar with the system as of yet. Thus, professional gamblers will try to count cards, slide dice, cheat at roulette, take advantage of inexperienced dealers and do anything they can to try and take exploit the flaws while they have the chance. Also, I've worked in a few places that unwittingly set up a new carnival (mostly poker variants, mississippi stud, three card poker, carribian stud) which were particularly vulnerable to people who were very skilled at poker, often times getting completely emptied in a single night. The casino had compensated by altering the rules and payouts, but the poker players being the opportunists they are, they already got their kill while they could and made off

Lastly, there were a few, very few, regulars we had (and by regular I mean five days a week or more) who DID in fact come out on top despite the overwhelming odds against them. By some farce, they always happened to be at the craps table at the right time or get a good streak on blackjack. That wasn't to say they won every single time, they did have plenty of losing days but they did manage to make money off of the house in the long run. Some of them profiting anywhere form a couple thousand to a couple ten thousand a year.


So, that's my insight on gambling as a profession. Sorry there was no tl:dr but hopefully you found something useful in it all

>>1365368
I tried $7 and $15 didn't get on too well with it really, also I have so many notes on micro players I'm pretty content just milking them.

>>1365378
I hear you. If it aint broke type of a thing...

So I have a funny story. I was playing a live game yesterday. I actually didnt really want to play yesterday at all but the casino sent me a $50 match play in the mail. So I go to the casino and plop my $50 along with the casinos $50 on blackjack and lose it. Fuck lol. They also gave me $15 dollars on free slot play. I hate slots but its free money. So I play the $15 and actually win $100. Sweet!

I take the $100 I won and was feeling lucky so I take it and buy in $300 to a 2-4 NLHM cash game.

>come up about $100 on a couple donkeys in an hour
>avoid the sharks, spot them after 15 minutes even though never played in this casino before
>one shark singles me out specifically
>every time I raise preflop he reraises me
>takes me for a chump
>got into at least 3 hands where I had solid hands but not the nuts so I fold to his aggression
>let him get in the habit of bullying me
>finally catch a hand and flop top 2 pair
>hes on the button so I check
>hes hammering me with overbets on the flop and turn
>I know he doesnt have shit. Put him on AQ with air.
>I am calling hesitantly like I did the other hands before I folded so hes putting me on a weak pair
>he catches his ace on the river
>fuck yea
>I check again and he pushes a decent value bet
>I immediately push all in. totally mask it as a desperation play. do a little hollywooding
>he takes 30 seconds then calls
>crack him for a $400 hand

I was only there for a little over an hour. Not a bad day!

>>1364845
yeah ive folded KK a couple times pre and have been right
the only reason i'd fold is because i know vill wouldn't raise AK like that and he wouldn't be spergin out as bad if he had QQ

>>1365031
>playing HU online
>playing anything out of micro stakes

Bots aren't good at these stakes since it's mostly chinese farming script kiddie shit

>>1365241
>3 betting preflop is a good way to give away the strength of your hand. The problem with letting people know you have AA, KK or QQ is the people who will call with anything just to see if they can catch a set, 2 pair or straight on the flop knowing they can get maximum value out of you

this makes it seem like youre results oriented. i'd never worry about a situation where im leading off 80% most of the time.

i'd fold a king high flush if i were in a tourney or deep in a cash game, but in most situation, if im not leading out, ill call down all the way. (though, in these situations, I led out and was pot committed before they caught up) if someone knows you'll always fold mid straight and worse, you become extremely exploitable.

>>1365354
breh i play on americas suckout room

>>1365662
>this makes it seem like youre results oriented. i'd never worry about a situation where im leading off 80% most of the time.

It really has nothing to do with that. I'll try to explain. I dont really mind being sucked out on. Everyone loses from time to time when someone who is way behind catches an out. It doesnt change the way I play in the least. Really what it comes down to is giving away the strength of your hand. Theres only a few hands I would 3bet preflop with. I wouldnt usually ever 3bet with less than fully premium hands (unless I catch a good read and think they are making a move with a reraise, or in tournaments when you are forced to make moves). When I 3bet as a tight aggresive player I am pretty much letting the table know I have AA, KK or QQ. 3betting with any other hand in a normal situation with a less than premium hand is just not a good move to me because now I either need to catch a solid hand on the flop or outplay someone that might already be thinking he is semi-pot committed and less likely to fold to a bluff. I have seen top pros 3bet with 9 J offsuit but its usually in situations when they are playing with really good tight players that they know will fold.

So what happens? Now that I 3bet and let my opponent pretty much know I have KK he is going to have more information on me than I have on him if he calls. If a 7, 9, 10 with 2 clubs comes out on the flop and hes coming at me strong, I have to decide if he flopped a set, if he has a straight (obviously not likely but stranger things have happened) or if he is on a flush draw. If I didnt 3bet preflop it makes my decision much easier because the strength of my hand is masked. He is not going to bet a str8 or a set that hard because of 2 things. There is less money in the pot. He doesnt want me to fold. I will give you a perfect example.

>cont.

>>1365732
>a week ago playing live game
>loose player raises preflop
>i have jj
>decide to just call and mask the strength of my hand to get maximum value from it
>flop comes out 9 8 6 no flush draw
>he makes a small value bet so i put him on pair, probably a 8 or 9 since he would bet more with a 6
>i just call to try and get value out of my hand and not scare him away
>turn come out its a 2
>he makes a larger value bet knowing that because I am a tight player I called because I have something decent
>i upgrade his hand to a 9, 2pair, set or a str8
>now I decide to do a min reraise to see if I can determine the strength of his hand
>he smooth calls me instead of reraising back
>since he just calls me I upgrade his hand to 2pair, set, or str8 knowing that I am dead
>9 comes out on the river
>he checks
>I check

He ended up flopping a str8. The fact that I made the reraise on the turn and not preflop saved me a shitload of money and he got the least amount of value out of me. If he had known I had a high pair from the beginning he could have bet strongly throughout the whole hand. It really just comes down to limiting pot size which also limits variance. This way I can get maximum information out of him and he gets nothing from me.

>>1365662
> if someone knows you'll always fold mid straight and worse, you become extremely exploitable.
Thats the thing. I wouldnt always fold a mid str8. Only in certain situations where I know I am beat. I dont mind being bluffed from time to time because it makes it that much easier to set a trap when I actually do have a hand.

>>1361608
By "is set to pay out" I measly meant it is more likely to have a payout the more times the machine is used with no winner. And it is only only slightly more likely. I never said it will for sure pay out.

>>1365371
how the hell does someone manage to cheat at roulette?

>>1365732
99+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, A5o-A2o, KJo+, K4o-K2o, QJo, Q4o-Q2o, J3o-J2o, T2o, Ks5c, Kc5d, Kc5h, Kc5s

this is my 3bet range vs sb open
any A K or Q flop I cbet. this alone makes it very difficult to play back against my range, which keeps them from opening up more sb's against me.

im going to 3bet KK to keep shittier hands out of the pot, as well. this protects the equity of my hand. you're missing out on value if you don't 3bet your kings.

>>1365750
im okay with set mining with jacks, but after a certain price, you're going to need to play back at them. never raise to find out where you are at, but to realize your equity. also, min raising is just bad.

im guessing he had T7s. you think he's going to call you down for say, 3x of what he raised for? if you think so, try 5x.

depending on his stack size, if on the larger end, i'd call up to 5x the blind, but if he's less than 75, then im going to 3bet him. say it's 1/2 and he puts in the standard 6 and its folded to me, i'd make it at least 18 up to 26. if i want to set mine, i'd just call down the small value bets. this lets him know that i dont overvalue overpairs and that my callback range includes overpairs. this allows me to develop a float range.

>>1365773
>im going to 3bet KK to keep shittier hands out of the pot, as well. this protects the equity of my hand. you're missing out on value if you don't 3bet your kings.

I agree that in multi-player positions where there are still 3 or more hands in action that a 3 bet with KKs helps to keep shittier hands out of the pot and protects it but not always. Live games are looser than they used to be. It is not rare at all to be in a sitiation where you 3 bet with KK and find 3 people calling behind you. At that point your KK is rarely going to hold up. I would take 87 suited over KK in a multi-player pot any time of the day since you usually will have more possibilities to make a hand. Also, I am a big fan of sacrificing early value for late value which is going to be greater.

I will give you a perfect example:
>playing online a couple weeks ago
>catch AA
>player raises 10 times blind and everyone folds but me
>I just call
>flop comes out 10 5 3 with 2 hearts
>i donk bet 1.5 times the pot to make it look like I just want to take it down knowing he will call
>he calls
>turn comes out it is a j of hearts
>luckily one of my aces is a heart so even if he has flush I have outs
>I donk bet 1.5 times the pot agan
>he calls
>river comes out it is another heart
>I check. The thinking behind this is that if he has a heart he will bet and if he doesnt he wouldnt call a bet from me anyways. since he raised preflop I have hoping K or Q hearts
>he bets 3/4 of the pot
>I push all in
>he calls because he is pot comitted now

He had a king 10, obviously the king being a heart. I took down a $700 pot because I didnt 3bet preflop. He probably would have folded. Even if he didnt fold preflop he would have been more able to get away from the hand after the flop had I given away the strength of my hand too early. This is just one instance. I am just saying that 3 betting too often can sometimes cripple the amount of value you get out of a hand or multiple your losses.

>>1363041
>>1363037
>>1362148
>>1362091
>>1362075
>>1361611

If anyone is interested, being "gubbed" (banned for using arbitrage) is easily avoided.

Check out my little arb guide if you wanna know more :) ----------->

http://learntobeyourownboss.com/arbitrage-betting-opportunities

>>1365831
this is 1/2?

>>1365773
>this lets him know that i dont overvalue overpairs and that my callback range includes overpairs. this allows me to develop a float range.
I think you're overthinking it. If you're playing the same people over and over they are going to notice these oddities but I mostly play online against anonymous faces or at casinos where I rarely ever get into too many showdowns with other regulars. Its just much easier to take money from casuals who for the most part are not going to be putting you on ranges at all, let alone notice if you overvalue your pairs.

>>1365851
I think that specific game was a 4/8

>>1365831
you fix the amount of people joining the hand by raising the price. not only does this weed out the number of hands you'll be facing, but it'll also be easier for you to ship it in and have them call you down with a weaker hand. do you know what SPR is?

in your hand, honestly, i don't mind shoving as a 3bet. but i also don't mind making it 25bb to play. you can include AA in your call back range, but it's not wise to say that because you were successful in trapping one time, that it's better to trap than to 3bet.

>>1365855
i like hunting regs.

>>1359030
Reminded me of this Chinese Mexican money launderer who spent so much at a casino that they gave him a Rolls Royce.

>>1365766
That's not how probability works.
If there is a chance if 1 % to win, every single turn will have a 1 % chance to win. No matter how long it took for someone to win a game. The chances will not increase after some time without a winner.
No matter which machine you use, your chance will be exactly the same every single time you use it. Going to a machine which didn't pay out for quite a whole only makes you feel better. Seriously, don't believe that.

>>1365874
It all really comes down to playstyle. I can get more information out of people by letting them be the aggressor. In certain instances if I feel that I am not getting enough value with them aggressing and know they are likely to call then I will reraise. Most of the time people will put more money in the pot if they think they have the upper hand or sense you are weak though. By the time I have cracked them a few times or they tighten up I have already moved on to another game or a new mark. There really is no shortage of action. I have rarely been in a game lately where the whole tableis playing tight. In those circumstances I change my gamestyle and open my range.

>>1365769
>how the hell does someone manage to cheat at roulette?
There are a couple ways.

the most common is for them to swipe up their money and/or relocate it super quick after the winning number has been called.
usually the guys who do it take a spot right on the table so that they are right next to the dealer and if they are quick and the dealer isn't quite as experienced they can get away with it.

one of the less common but most effective strategies has no name. Generally, it is only done by people who are extremely familiar with the game (IE people who are themselves roulette dealers). It consists of them memorizing every number on the wheel in sequential order. They divide the wheel into 4 or 5 sections. The only place bets on the inside numbers, they don't bother with red/black, odd/even, high/low. the only lay their money down AFTER the ball has been spun. Because the player in question is somebody who has dealt the game for many years, they have very good perception as to where the ball is going to land and place their bets accordingly. IE, it's going to land in section B therefor they bet 0, 1, 13, 36, 24, 3, 15, 34, 22 and 5

Unlike counting cards though, this strategy takes far more rehearsal and familiarity than a fifteen minute read on the internet (Actually, most people are alot worse at counting cards than they realize and end up getting burned but that's beside the point). But I have seen a few people, four to be exact, who could do it and get a good edge on the house. And out of those four instances, only one time did surveillance call down to the pit and let us know we had somebody cheating. The other three instances we're only evaluated in retrospect, as the surveillance crew in question was completely oblivious as to what was going on, and the table took some heavy losses for the evening

>>1365891
i imagine you have a lot of fgator dollars

>>1359030
>is it possible to make consistent money through gambling?
Sure, it's "possible." It's also "possible" that a 10/10 supermodel will come up to me tomorrow and beg me to let her suck my cock.

Are you likely to eventually lose money? Yes.

>>1366219
Unless you know how to make money through gambling.

>>1366197
Probably kek. That guy is so bad. You would be surprised at how many people that play for big money are worse though. I had a buddy who actually dumped his life savings ($60k) in 3 months playing live games. I don't know why players who have a documented -EV dont just stick to low stakes until they get into the green. I would imagine most of it is low patience which is probably the worst trait to have when you are trying to play professionally. Poker really is a grind. Bad bankroll management will wipe you out.

>>1366339
>I would imagine most of it is low patience which is probably the worst trait to have when you are trying to play professionally. Poker really is a grind. Bad bankroll management will wipe you out.


Bigtime This!

Holy shit have i had some really dull times waiting for something to come up and get the action going while the blinds chip away at my stack. If you don't have patience you'll end up being the live one.

>>1366339
you do realize that we have IDs on this board, right?

>>1359030
Executive casino host here. You can make a career of it.

>>1366455
Yea.... I wasn't samefagging...

Did you even look at the IDs?

>>1366339

I think he is calling you fgators. I am pretty sure he is one of those guys that browses 2 by 2 and thinks there is only one way to play poker. Nowadays everyone is a wanna be pro.

>>1366655
Was he? Lmfao. I don't need to defend that because my career winnings speak for themself.

>66655
Checked. Nice boat.

>>1366658
>my career winnings speak for themself
How much have you won? Do you mostly play cash games or tournaments?

>>1366664
Naw I'm not going to humblebrag lol. Lets just say I've been been playing almost as long as Negreanu and Ivey. I have a consistent +EV over years and years of play. My gamestyle is specifically designed to limit variance. It's a little unorthodox but works for me. With that being said I am still growing. You don't ever want to be in a position where you feel like you have it all figured out. The game evolves constantly and so does the way people play it. If you are not constantly adapting then you just don't understand poker.

I have been betting on football for about 10 years now , the last 2 i have been focusing on the study income side rather than the get rich quick side, betting on singles and cashing out early at live as soon as u have your desired profit, thats the general idea

>>1365838
>:) ----------->
4channers don't use this shit, lad.

>>1365419
>>1365750
>>1365831
These are all good reads, learning a lot already

online is too ez

MP: 115.5 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 23.81, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 22)
CO: 108.2 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 46)
BTN: 120.8 BB (VPIP: 46.67, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
SB: 98.7 BB (VPIP: 21.28, PFR: 19.15, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 47)
Hero (BB): 195.9 BB
UTG: 195 BB (VPIP: 11.32, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Jc 5d
fold, MP raises to 2.6 BB, CO calls 2.6 BB, BTN calls 2.6 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.6 BB

Flop : (10.9 BB, 4 players) 4d 2c 5c
Hero checks, MP bets 7.2 BB, CO calls 7.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 7.2 BB

Turn : (32.5 BB, 3 players) Qc
Hero checks, MP bets 23.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 23.5 BB

River : (79.5 BB, 2 players) 8s
Hero checks, MP bets 49 BB, Hero calls 49 BB

MP shows 9d Ac (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 64%, Flop 38%, Turn 36%)

Hero shows Jc 5d (One Pair, Fives)
(Pre 36%, Flop 62%, Turn 64%)

Hero wins 167.7 BB

>>1366705
Cash out is -ev, hence why bookies love to advertise it. Seeing as bookies will rarely give you a +ev price with cashout you are choosing to take one that isn't (or is less than full potential)

>>1359392
Very negative attitude anonsan

Wageslavery odds suck too. Your knowledge and experience will depreciate. layoffs happen, recessions, automation eliminating jobs you can't control. Running your own business is the only way and if it fails you try again

>>1369198
he's being sarcastic.. come on anon

>>1361373
Holy shit, I just looked this site up

Just looking at the front page, I think I could make easy money off Scotland not leaving the UK and the Democratic candidate winning the white house. This shit is way easier to predict than sports.

>>1361606
Just go to the dentist and have them bill you, Jesus. Debt is better than slowly dying.

>>1369315
>Scotland not leaving the UK
think about it some more anon. opinion polls have yes ahead by a larger margin this time around than before.

predicting shit doesn't matter at all, it's about evaluating price.

>>1369367
the price of my dick in your moms mouth: one GBP

>>1369464
>mom

>>1359394
>like 1/2 online
Hah. In your dreams. It'd take months of practice for a fish to beat the micros (2NL, 5NL), there's no way they would beat 200NL consistently.

Op, if you practice proper BRM (bankroll management) and study poker consistently, there is some money to be made. But it's not an easy game to beat.

>>1369079
Fold pre

>>1369079
This actually a really bad play unless you are playing a live game and catch a really good read. Calling down half your stack with a pair of 5s is a good way to go broke in the long run. It may seem like a great hero call now since you actually won but there was multiple straights out there, a flush and 2 over cards.

>>1369636
obv getting way too good of a price to fold pre KEK

>>1369665
hes one of those players that aggressive when weak, passive when strong. his range was too top heavy to be a straight, but i did put him on the ace of clubs at the minimum.

even with the two overs, his bluffing frequency is too often here that i cant fold at any price.

File: stallol.jpg (38 KB, 580x346) Image search: [Google]

38 KB, 580x346

>>1369631

>months of practice to beat 5nl

god bless your silly low iq heart.

>>1369776
Take someone who knows jack shit about cards, show them the basics of NLHE and then sit them on a full ring of 0.25/0.50 stakes and watch them lose 50 BI by limping UTG with marginal hands, calling every street with one pair hands, treating ace rags like monsters, donking and bluffing too much, tilting when they lose as favorites and basically being fish. You might be amazed by how easy it is to be SHIT at this game. Even 5NL is too much for your average fish to beat in months.

Prove me wrong bud

>>1369702
Hell of an assumption on a 22 hand sample. You might be right on range we can't know that without more context. If you want to provide proofs you're a winning player go ahead.

>>1369980
yea, then sit that fish down and say stop limping, use a basic preflop chart, cbet non wet boards, fold 1 pair hands vs turn raises, 3bet to 10bbs and cbet 1/2 pot on all streets for value, 2barrel when you pick up additional equity, 3barrel when you're at the absolute bottom of your range and villian has 1pair hands that haev to fold etc

and boom they're beating 50nl

then show them sitting to the left of the fish and check/calling for value vs aggrotards and they're beating 200nl

sorry you're probably one of those guys who spazzes out and bluffs into the nuts over and over again. maybe one day you'll learn bluffing is a meme.

>>1370172
i could probably load the notes i have on him. i think he played a8o or something with an 8.

how do i show you my spent live winnings?

>>1369980
rake at micros is kinda of hindrance, but that's also because its cool to be a rakeback pro. theres also going to be more variance in the short term so to really see where you stand in the micros, you're going to have to put in a lot more hands to really realize the law of large numbers

but yeah i agree, most people just don't fucking get it and play stupid even if they have whatever top pro there is nowadays sweating them

>>1370217
>3bet to 10bbs

what if I open 7x?

>invest 100 USD on those pixel selling accounts on instagram (milliondollarpixel) for example
>hope to win the big prize
>profit?
lol

>>1370217
>and boom they're beating 50nl

Too much formula, not enough leeway. Once you get tagged as a predictable type you become prey.

SWEAR TO GOD
IM TIRED OF LOSING MY POCKET QUEENS
>inb4 WE

Pocket Queens are pretty tricky. Strong enough to make it hard to fold preflop. Also makes for wanting to see the turn "just in case".

>>1371222
>when the guy calls you down on the turn with ak with just the two overs as outs and gets there on the river and checks down to you after tanking and you just know he hit it and is trapping you and you check down and he starts griping at you
>"muh why the fuck didn't you bet you donk?!?"
>"muh trap muh preshush trap!!"

FUCKING POCKET REEEEEEES

i still keep losing my pocket queens
disgusting

all im doing today is losing
i won 3 bi yesterday and ive been sucked out on them already

getting people to give you their money is always better than gambling

>>1365887
Learn conditional probability. If a machine with 1% chance of payout has 500,000 losses in a row there is no way it will have another thousand losses in a row. At what point do you say that the machine doesn't really have a .2% output. In order for that machine to maintain that .2% output is to have winners more often than once in 500 spins. If it never has a winner is it morally correct for a casino to say it has a .2% output?

It's questionable the ammount of randomness in certain machines. It was true of older machines that if it had say a 1/500'000 chance of jackpot after 250k non jackpots the odds would be 1/250k

>>1372023
You're tilting senpai, find a game type that doesn't tilt you so much, I find HU does this for me due to low variance.

>>1372056
Its not as cut and dry as you think. You are not taking variance into account. Just because a slot machine doesnt hit a jackpot in a million spins, that doesnt mean that the odds of it hitting a jackpot are necessarily less than one in a million. It could hit the jackpot twice in the next million spins. When they say that a machine has a .2% output what they mean is that given an unlimited amount of spins, the output will eventually reach .2%. They are not gauranteeing that it will happen like clockwork.

>>1372119
hu are the highest variance game there is

>>1359030
do you even math?

>>1372781
That's the opposite of the truth. HU games have the lowest variance.

>>1372873
10 handed has the least variance
unless you play 11 handed
or even 12

>>1372895
I was talking about SNG's, I agree HU cash games have high variance.

>>1373191
>be me
>be playing 9 man SNG
>top three pays out
>two hours later (10 min levels)
>still four players pushing chips around for NO GOOD FUCKING REASON

>>1359030
If it was that easy why aren't all the r9k neets doing it?

so lets talk a little about theory of preflop open sizing
for me, i usually size base on my position: the earlier, the smaller; the later, the larger.

the reason i bet smaller from earlier positions is that my range is going to be smaller, yet stronger, so i want more people to call/3bet me. when im in later spots, i want my bets to be larger, albeit my range wider, to narrow down the ranges of the players to my left. it'll be harder for them to justify setmining with 44 at 100bbs calling 7bb pre in the sb.

i know a lot of people who do the opposite; they bet bigger from UTG and smaller from BU. they justify it by saying their range is strong so their bet sizing should be strong, or if their range is weak, so should the size. i think this stems from not being comfortable post flop.

>>1373548
Raising small early is going to result in a lot of multiway pots, which you don't want if you're range is strong. Personally I always open for ~2.2x BB from any position and make an adjustment if the players in the blinds always defend or are very good post flop.

>>1373548
You don't want to give away your range. Varying your bet preflop according to hand strength is not a great idea. Stay away from advanced poker theory. Its messing you up and shouldn't be used by amateurs.

>>1373599
how does bet sizing give away range when range is given away by showing cards? i would want to bet more with stronger hands because it would make it easier to get it in post flop. though, i'd want to balance my bluffs by betting the same size.

>>1373603
What the other guy said was true. How much you open for doesn't really matter a whole lot, focus on what you open with and what you 3 bet with. 3 bet sizing has a lot more to consider than open sizing. I assume you are playing full ring HE?

File: texas hold em 6 man cheat sheet.png (740 KB, 1024x762) Image search: [Google]

740 KB, 1024x762

My friend is in college and makes about $2k per month on average playing online poker. I think he plays about 3-5 hours every day, and has played for about 1½ years, which means he's only gonna make more and more as he gains more money that he can with and his skill improves.

Poker is the only "gambling" (i don't consider poker gambling) game i know where you can make consistent earnings.

There's a shitton of books and guides you can look up if you want to get into it, you can't be lazy about this shit. If you're willing to put in the time and effort to read and learn about the game, you can earn a pretty big sum of money.

Oh also, make sure to only play for about 1-5% of the current money you have in your poker account, thats how you prevent yourself from going broke.
so lets say you have $500 in your account, you only play tables where the buy in is $5-15.

I've only made a couple hundred bucks playing poker as I mainly just play for fun.

Pic related; its the cheat sheet i use for 6 man texas hold 'em.

>>1373614
fuck, i'm tired. I meant to say "more money he that he can play with"

>>1373613
the entire premise is about open sizing based on position. you can't open 3bet.

There's no consistent way to make a lot money without a significant commitment. Some do get lucky and can be complete idiots and still end up with millions but no one gets to decide luck. You can making money in gaming(gambling) as well as investing but to the people who are most successful at it don't do it for the money, they love it and so the money comes second.

>>1373625
Not sure why you think I suggested that was a possibility. I'll try to simplify it: you aren't going to squeeze out any magic value over thousands of hands by varying your open size (aside from adjustments to specific players). I brought up 3 betting since you said
>>1373548
>it'll be harder for them to justify setmining with 44 at 100bbs calling 7bb pre in the sb
You must be talking about your 3 bet sizing.

>>1373603
At low limits don't be afraid to raise strongly pre flop because most of the players will chase and call strong 3 bets with lots of pocket pairs or even J10 and higher as well. They aren't paying attention to your range.

>>1373634
you do not setmine by 3betting... at 100bbs its actually wrong to call a 3x open unless the opponent is quite aggressive
a setmine is when you open/call up to a certain amount in hopes of hitting a set on the flop
im talking about opening 7x on the button to prevent someone in the sb from defending so wide albeit me having a wide range

>>1373666
>im talking about opening 7x on the button to prevent someone in the sb from defending
I'm not going to insult you but you have a very long way to go and shouldn't be worrying about small nuances, watch some streams or video content aimed at beginners, and if you are playing full ring I would just stick with a 3x open from every position.

>>1373666
Actually scratch that, I just looked through the thread and you are pretending to be a "poker pro" and actually think opening 7x on the button with anything is a good play. You also whined about bad beats "everytime I have QQ he has it man!" There is no possible way you are even profitable in micro stakes. Why are you making up stories on the internet?

>>1373678
>stick with a 3x open from every position
Absolutely this. This will never be a bad play if you are an amateur or if you are a pro. If you are at a table where everyone has deep stacks you can consider opening for more but make sure you are consistent about making the same flat bet if you do. Never open for more with aa than you would with j10. You make yourself predictable.

>>1373686
well if you open AA to 7x then you should open your bluffs the same size. people are also going to call 7x a lot less than they would 3x. it's also easier to get TPTK in when you bet bigger preflop

SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 21.76, PFR: 14.71, 3Bet Preflop: 11.59, Hands: 174)
BB: 198.5 BB (VPIP: 23.68, PFR: 18.05, 3Bet Preflop: 2.04, Hands: 275)
UTG: 187.5 BB (VPIP: 22.64, PFR: 16.89, 3Bet Preflop: 10.89, Hands: 306)
MP: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 30.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 10)
CO: 56.5 BB (VPIP: 32.00, PFR: 24.39, 3Bet Preflop: 2.70, Hands: 133)
Hero (BTN): 160.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qs Qc
fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, MP calls 6 BB

Flop : (19.5 BB, 2 players) 3s 5s Jd
MP checks, Hero bets 11 BB, MP calls 11 BB

Turn : (41.5 BB, 2 players) 4c
MP checks, Hero bets 100 BB, MP calls 83.5 BB and is all-in

River : (208.5 BB, 2 players) 8s

MP shows Ts As (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 32%, Flop 44%, Turn 32%)

Hero shows Qs Qc (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 68%, Flop 56%, Turn 68%)

MP wins 198.5 BB

>>1373700
>well if you open AA to 7x then you should open your bluffs the same size
So you open AA and nothing for 7x? Let's see, you want to get 0 value with AA ever, but want only premium hands to call you when you open with trash for 7x? It seems like you've been playing for a few weeks, got really excited reading some forum posts, but haven't managed to understand the basics yet. You are trying to think way over your head, congrats on learning the terminology, now try to figure out how to make money at 1 cent 2 cent before you pretend to be something you're not on 4chan again.

>>1373715
>no one ever plays KK in a pot thats been opened for more than 3x

Okay, buddy. Come back when you get some real experience under your belt. 10k hands is kekable.

>>1373717
What are you talking about "10k hands." Your strategy is to catch KK once in a blue moon while losing the rest of the time? I actually looked over your hand history as well, do you not see that your opponent made 0 mistakes and you made a vomit inducing turn bet? When you make up stories on the internet my friend every so often someone is going to catch you. Why do it? Does it release some endorphins to pretend you are a competent poker player anonymously?

>>1373717
>>no one ever plays KK in a pot thats been opened for more than 3x
They wouldn't just play it, they would 3 bet you. If you get caught bluffing then you just lost 7x bb. If you have AA and go all in it would be the exact same scenario as if you had just opened 3x bb (i.e. all the chips would wind up in the middle preflop either way). Its just not a good move.

>>1359392
You must be fun at parties

>>1373730
and qq and jj and ak and aq and anything else people make mistakes with

>>1373744
if have aa and go all in its not the same as if i opened 3x since id have to get it in eventually with opening 3x which isn't always going to happen

>>1373775
Any half competent player would fold JJ or AK to a 7x open. QQ would be situational, but seeing how bad you are I imagine even at a micro table people would be able to pick up on it and make the correct decision with QQ if they've seen you play for a few minutes. Opening any hand in any position for 7x is just a straight up horrible losing play. I can tell you now with your attitude you aren't going to make it in poker. You are getting upset about "bad beats," riding highs when you win, dreaming about being a pro when you aren't even making money in microstakes, and getting upset when people offer you advice. You're really going to need to reevaluate if you want to make it in poker, it's not 2003 anymore.

>>1373790
>half competent folding AK to a HU scenario

>>1373792
I wouldn't even think for a tenth of a second before folding AK to a 7x button open, nor would any other player with remedial knowledge of poker math, it's a losing call.

>>1359034
The thing a lot of people don't understand is that you don't just have to be substantially above average, you have to be the veritable top of the pile. The house takes their own cut when you play poker and such.

At a poker table of 8 people, there's 1 winner, and MAYBE 1 guy who breaks even or gets some pocket change. Everyone else loses. Even worse, games like poker have such high deviations that it's impossible to tell in the short term if you are winning or losing. Even seasoned professionals who are at the top of the game go on 6-12 month losing streaks all the time. 2 years isn't uncommon. There's a ridiculous amount of volatility.

>>1362495
>There hasn't been any money in poker for nearly decade. Everyone is good now. Too many sharks not enough fish.

Basically this. There were so many people who were so bad at poker in the early 2000s that a good player could win often enough to go places. However, it was still just feeding off of the scraps. The really good people were raking in multiple millions.

The distribution of money is actually very close to pyramid schemes and MLM things (basically pyramid schemes). Now that the bottom has been cut out from under the pyramid, there's nothing for mediocre players to collect. They just feed the great players.

>>1373790
either way, you are arguing in my favor. if you think anyone would fold JJ or AK to a 7x then you should 7x since its rate of success will be proportionally higher to the success rate of a 3x open

>>1373801
with AK a lot of the time youre the worst youll be is 40%
folding is always a mistake since its an autoprofit for villian

>>1373803
>>1373807
Do you not know what "pot odds" are? Maybe you should read about them, will really change your strategy if you somehow manage to grasp the concept. What site do you play on? Would you like to play some HU since your grasp on it is better than mine? I'm happy to play up to 25/50

>>1364473
Have you ever been hustled by a "drunk clueless tourist" who makes more money doing this shit than you do.

>>1373775
You know what you sound like? You sound like this asian guy that I played with a month ago. I bought into a 1-2 cash game with 100 bucks.

>catch AA first hand
>I'm first to act
>raise up to 3x bb like I would always do
>get 6 callers, nobody raises
>fuck lol
>qc 7s 2d
>I bet half pot
>2 callers behind me and a reraise
>fuck fuck
>I fold
>everyone else folds but short stack to my left who is put all in
>short stack shows AQ
>reraiser shows set of 7s

The short stack who lost the hand was an asian guy. Asks me what I folded. I tell him "pocket aces". He goes "wtf man why didn't you push all in preflop?". He was looking at me like I was stupid. I couldn't even answer him because it would just take too long to explain. So I just respond with "yea man, I would have won". Lmao.

>>1373817
american sites
can you play american?

>>1373831
>"ah dang, i got an overpair to a rainbow board and im facing a raise, better fold"

>>1373839
Sure, ACR or Bovada?

>>1373841
acr les go

>>1373845
Give me the table name/limit

>>1373847
youre the one calling me out bro

>>1373848
Aziza 1 15/30

>>1373840
I had to fold. Even though it was a rainbow board I just wasn't willing to risk any more chips with limited information. Since it was my first hand at that table I couldn't tell if everyone was playing incredibly loose or if I was beat by multiple players. The thing to remember in poker is that it really does not matter what you have. AA is great but in a 6 way pot it is rarely going to hold up. If I had called then I would have been one of those players whining about "variance" when in reality I made a bad play.

>>1373851
okay because your beginners mind multitabling high stakes while shitposting on 4spam

>>1373858
Correct, sit and talk to me if you need to verify my ID

>>1373855
well your first mistake was buying in for less than 100bbs. you folded away 25% of your stack. thats pretty fucking exploitable right from the get go.

>>1373860
im chattin breh
where ya at

>>1373864
I SEE NOTHING

>>1373864
No you aren't, you need to buy in for me to see your chat. Pick another table and I'll sit if that's easier for you.

>>1373866
>>1373866
atomy 4
if you're real, ill see you join that 2 cent table

>>1373870
>2 cent
You are a pro poker player at a 2 cent table? Come on dude, you are just embarrassing yourself

>>1373874
the money doesnt matter
if youre real, ill see you join the table then ill sit down
until then, youre just a shitposter
stay #rekt my friend

>>1373861
I normally buy in for less than 100bbs. It limits variance and allows me to call a bully down when I first step onto a table. By the time I have built my stack to 100bb I usually have a decent read on opponents playstyles. With that hand it wouldn't have mattered if I had 50bb or 100bb. I would have lost 25 bucks either way. In fact, if I had called on the flop, there would be no reason to not to call him on the turn or river since I am not putting him on a set or 2 pair. I would have lost 8x as much money your way.

>>1373878
you fail to make up value for the suck outs by sizing bigger preflop

>>1373877
You've been caught lying for at least the 3rd time in this thread. Why? You are anonymous, why pretend to be something you aren't?

>>1373884
sit down

>>1373882
Untrue. I am only gaining 4x big blind by sizing preflop according to hand strength at the same time letting the table know I have a high pocket pair. They are also unlikely to 3bet me at which point I lose possible value out of a 4bet. Even if they don't 3bet, I also lose late term value by maybe gaining a small short term value at the same time as giving away the strength of my hand.

>>1373887
is that you that is sitting down?

>>1373898
youre missing out on value dude

>>1373900
I am actually gaining a tremendous amount of value by sacrificing small preflop value. That hand I happened to get sucked out on but I am not too worried about that. If I raised 7x bb then the guys with the AQ and 77 still might have called me. If they didnt call me then I only gain 3 bucks. Why would you want to push everyone out of the hand when you have AA? Lets remove the 77 suckout for a.second. There was no way that all the asian guys chips were not going in the middle with AQ and catching top pair and me only raising 3x bb. If I raise more preflop he could have gotten away from the hand and I lose late term value.

>>1373912
honestly dude most people playing live mostly open like 10x for standard

>>1373915
Untrue. I play an enormous amount of live cash games. Rarely does anyone ever open for 10bbs. When it does happen, it is usually a person who at the end of the action and is protecting a pocket pair in a multiplayer pot.