I just invested $200 on the bet that Jeb will be below 5% on Feb 29
Oh shit RCP still has him at 5.8%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
did I just throw away 200?
Its not too late I can still sell back
I feel kind of stupid, on jumping on "Free money" so quickly. The only reason I found the Jeb bet is because it was on today's biggest movers going up 18 cents today. Meaning it was previously at 93% certainty. And if you read the comments, there is a lot of sweating. The bet has basically come down to RCP methodology rather than JEb's actual standings.
I can sell right now and lost $12.5 and toss it to the price of a life experience, look before you leap, no free lunch. Or hang on and believe sanity will prevail and a guy not running can't poll above 5%. Only 5 days left.
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers
18% is a significant fall in a single day. But its not like its crashed. So most betters still think theres an overwhelming chance he'll be below 5%, but this wasn't quite "Free money".
You guys are financial pundits. Should I sell my shares right now and take the small loss?
You do realize that Jeb is no longer running, right?
>>1109683
Thats why I thought it would be free money. But its not, since we're really betting on what RCP editors will do
>>1109646
Any advice guys?
>>1109646
For those who don't understand this is the problem:
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#comment-2534083291
Its also a chance for you to make some free money, if you think they'll update the polls in time.
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#comment-2534083291
