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Anonymous
I bet that Jeb would poll below 5% on 2/29, should I fold?
2016-02-25 00:20:09 Post No. 1109646
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I bet that Jeb would poll below 5% on 2/29, should I fold?
Anonymous
2016-02-25 00:20:09
Post No. 1109646
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I just invested $200 on the bet that Jeb will be below 5% on Feb 29
Oh shit RCP still has him at 5.8%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
did I just throw away 200?
Its not too late I can still sell back
I feel kind of stupid, on jumping on "Free money" so quickly. The only reason I found the Jeb bet is because it was on today's biggest movers going up 18 cents today. Meaning it was previously at 93% certainty. And if you read the comments, there is a lot of sweating. The bet has basically come down to RCP methodology rather than JEb's actual standings.
I can sell right now and lost $12.5 and toss it to the price of a life experience, look before you leap, no free lunch. Or hang on and believe sanity will prevail and a guy not running can't poll above 5%. Only 5 days left.
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1987/Will-primary-polling-give-Bush-at-least-5-on-February-29#openoffers
18% is a significant fall in a single day. But its not like its crashed. So most betters still think theres an overwhelming chance he'll be below 5%, but this wasn't quite "Free money".
You guys are financial pundits. Should I sell my shares right now and take the small loss?
