>>689912733
50%

>>689912733
1 crit / 2 crit / no crit

33.3 %

>>689912733
75%

>>689913269
but 1 is 100% crit

>>689913269
>no crit
>at least one of them is a crit
Wew lad

its 50%

because you hit him twice.One of the hits are already known to be a crit for both of them to crit you just need to crit once meaning its 50%

>>689912733
question is made by someone who thinks he is a mathematical genius or something but in reality the question is fucking retarded

>>689912733
1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 or 25% chance

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>>689913404
>>689913426
oh then what >>689913103 said /thread
pack it up boys shows over

ATLEAST ONE HIT IS A CRIT, NO MATTER FUCKING WHAT. NOW WE ONLY HAVE THE OTHER HIT TO LOOK AT. SO 50%

1: 1st crit, 2nd crit
2: 1st crit, 2nd don't crit
3: 1st don't crit, 2nd crit
1/3 chance.

>>689913269
>At least one of the hits is a crit
First hit= crit 100%
>Assuming 50% crit chance
Second hit= crit 50%/no crit 50%
= 50%

>>689912733
50%, suck my dick, nigga

>>689912733
It's literally crit or not crit one of the times, so you can eliminate that time. After that, it's just 50/50

So much ameritard here.... 0.25 is the answer

>>689913746
this anon gets it

>>689912733
Mathematican here,
Let A be the first hit and B the second. There are 4 possibilities:
A=crit B=crit
A=crit B=x
A=x B=crit
A=x B=x

We have the condition that at least one hit is crit so we only consider the first three cases. That means the possibility is
1/3= 33.333%

>>689912733
75%
100%(0.5)+50%(0.5)=75%

>>689912733
1 in 2

1 crit + depend on how many probabilities?
0.25

>>689913269
Right answer, wrong method. Draw a punnett square: there are 4 possible outcomes (ab, Ab, aB, AB). We know from the question that one of them (ab) is off the table and our solution is one of the other three. Of the other three, what percentage are double-crit? 33%.

4 different possible outcomes. 2 of them have 2 criticals. 50% chance.

This is the same as the coin problem. It's 1/3.

>>689912733
66%

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can someone please legit answer this

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>>689914183

⅓ you idiots

>>689913883
>at least one of them is a crit
>A= x B= x
pure autism

>>689912733
82%

>>689913883 A=x and B=x can't happen. And if you are counting all possible outcomes where we know one is critical there are 4 possible outcomes with 2 of them having 2 criticals.

>>689912733
It's obviously 50%. Next question.

>>689914258
its 50% mate

>>689914120
Yep easy. Make the problem harder. You hit the enemy 4 times the 1st and 3rd hits are crits. You got at least 3 crits. What is the probability all hits were crits?

>>689912733
73%

>>689912733
37.5% chance

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>>689912733

1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4.

C = Crit, N = No crit

NN, CN, NC, CC

Only one instance of four possible outcomes is both crits.

25% chance.

67%

.3 repeating.

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>35 replied
>25 posters
fuck off

>>689914334
>>689914394
>We have the condition that at least one hit is crit so we only consider the first three cases.

Do you autists even read?

>>689913833
the question is "what's the probality BOTH hits are crits?"
C:0.5 then C again=0.5 (or /C=0.5) so 0.5*0.5= 25%....
>>at least one of the hits is a crit
So fcking useless cause the question is BOTH are crits
fags

Still 50% assuming the hits are independent of each other. With one of the two trials having already been completed, we can look at the other hit isolated.

>>689914394
>A=x and B=x can't happen
read my post again
>here are 4 possible outcomes with 2 of them having 2 criticals.
No. If you don't understand probability theory than don't post sit.

If someone's interested: This problem is called the "Boy or Girl paradox", see
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_Girl_paradox

>>689914642
Except there aren't 4 instances because one is a guaranteed crit dumbass.

>>689914871 did you read the rest of my post. Please explain.

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Mathematician here: 50%

Every scientific percentile is a 50/50 chance when devised by retards like you. Either the desired effect occurs or it does not.

>>689915133

No, see >>689913883 or the link in >>689915002
Your fault is that you assumed that A and B are independent. That's not the case.

P(crit n crit | crit) = (crit n crit n crit) / crit = (0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5) / 0.5 = 0.25

>>689912733
1/3 or 33% no arguing.

>>689915133
Wrong. You are not a mathematician.

>>689912733

50....

>>689912733
HC
CH
CC
All these are equally likely to happen since the chance to crit each time is 50%.

The probability of hitting both crits=1/3

Every other answer is wrong.

>>689912733

50 percent u retard

>>689913670
That's not how it works.

>>689913810
1/3 nigga

>>689915318
forget to write text...

the chance that both are crits is 0,25
we can't just ignore the possibility that both won't crit

>>689913833
That's very far from the answer. It's 1/3

the probability of the pool is not affected by the base chance. so the probability that the other hit is crit is just 50%. it isnt affected by the other one.

>>689913883
Yes but you sound like an asshole when you say mathematician here.

>>689912733
This >>689913103 all things in life boil down to it will or it won't.

>>689914258
1/3

>>689912733
there are only 3 cases possible:
First hit crit, the second don't crit.
First hit crit, second crit
First hit don't crit, the second crit.

so there are 33% chance of a double crit.

>>689913567
the correct answer

>>689915807
We can, it's literally stated in the problem that at least one of the attacks will crit.

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>>689915680
a voice of reason in a sea of filth

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>>689915053

>>689915807
Yes we can. That's what called "conditional probability".

>>689912733
well you calculate each one indenepndently, its not like well the first one was a crit so 1 is 50% of 2 and it was a crit so 2 wont be a crit..

no its each on its own, at each hit its 50-50 crit or not. In theory you could hit 1000 times and non of them could be a crit,, or all of them could be, if you were lucky. Altho 50% is pretty large so thats unlikely but,, not impossible.

so one is a crit no matter what, then its 50%, since its either the other is a crit or not, no other option.

>>689915807
Yes we can. Yes we do.

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>>689916115
Dear God...

The world is heading into dark places.

>>689915425
I object.
The proof is kinda complicated, but regarding the theory of conditional theoretical chances, the answer is 0.5

>>689912733
50%
since the crit chance doesnt drop after a crit is made each attack has an independent 50% to crit

>>689912733
25% chance. ezpz.

>>689915995
Well, at the moment I'm working on my master thesis in math so I would say I'm a mathematician.

>>689916251
thats my thought as well. the second hit isnt dependent on the first and the result of the first hit has already been established.

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>mfw niggers really arguing the order in which the crit is going to occur and making it a probability in outcome percentage

its 50%

>>689916108
Thank this guy
>https://www.youtube.com/user/MindYourDecisions

His videos taught me a lot about probability and logic

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>math is hard

Jesus Christ, it's fucking 33%, if you're really that stupid just use Google.

>>689916188
No you can't treat them as separate events one the question is about multiple events happening.

>>689916209
explain

The people who don't say 1/3 are the same people who don't know the difference between your and you're

itx 33%, any other answer is mentally fucking retarded and cant do simple math

>>689914258
25% obviously what the fuck is wrong with you dumb mongs

>>689916393
Fine you can look at it as 1 crit or two cits, just 1 crit is twice as likely so you know, still 33%

Anyone who says something other than 1/3 is clearly underage, as anyone who's completed high school should be able to calculate such basic conditional probabilities.

>>689916232
Wrong, it's 1/3. Rather famous question actually.
Three possible outcomes, one of them has two critical hits. Answer is therefore 1/3.

>>689914258
1/3ed

normally there are 4 outcomes
nc/nc
c/nc
nc/c
c/c

The question removes nc/nc as an answer

This leaves us with
c/nc
nc/c
c/c

so it's 1/3

A lot of peopel say 1/2 because they make the incorrect assumption that nc/c and c/nc are the same.

They are retarded.

>>689916393
Wrong, it's 1/3. Rather famous question actually.
Three possible outcomes, one of them has two critical hits. Answer is therefore 1/3.

On a table I have an apple and a coin. If the apple is an apple and the coin is a fair coin, what's the chance that a coin flip will result in heads and me also having an apple on the table?

50%

>>689916645
Wrong, it's 1/3. Rather famous question actually.
Three possible outcomes, one of them has two critical hits. Answer is therefore 1/3.

>>689916765
one result has already been abrogated by assuming that we already have a crit. so the answer is .5

>>689916749
ding ding

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>>689916506
No, we do not fucking ignore the possibility of neither hit being a critical. If that was the case, then would we not also ignore the possibility of both hits being crits?

Say the question was 'what is the possibility both hits aren't crits?' Would that be impossible to work out?

>>689913567
This

>>689916796
Wrong, it's 1/3. Rather famous question actually.
Three possible outcomes, one of them has two critical hits. Answer is therefore 1/3.

>>689916907
you are wrong, but its ok to be retarded

>>689916341
everyone is just over complicating it when the question is literally whats the chance a hit will crit when its a 50-50 chance to crit.
theres no chance of missing since question never gives us a hit chance thus its guaranteed to hit

>>689913269
That's not how probabilities work :'(

>>689913883
So, if i wanna write algorithm for this shit, i must include your explanation?

This returns 25%:

import random

def rand():
return random.randrange(0,2) == 1

def test(count):
success = 0
for i in range(0, count):
if(rand()):
if(rand()):
success = success + 1
return (float(success) / count) * 100

print(test(10000), "%")
What wrong here?

>>689913746

yay 50%

>>689916907
Yes that's was I removed one which made it 3 instead of 4.

>>689916951
How can you get an outcome with no crits if one of the hits is critical?

>>689912733
If it is my teammate shooting, then 0% to hit anything.

>>689917035
Odly, it's the right answer.

P(crit + crit) = 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 = 25%

>>689916796
You have 2 coins on the table. Flip both coins until 2x heads, disregard any 2x tails. That leaves HT HH TH 1/3

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33%

because "At least one of the hits is a crit."

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>>689916933
This is this worst post I've seen all day.

50% fags are bad but 25%? Holy fuck.

>>689917065
1 critical has been established
then:

50% chance to crit
50% chance to not crit

so the chance of 1/1 is 50%
and the chance of 2/0 is 50%

>>689912733
.5

>>689917081
I didn't include a scenario of both hits not being critical so the calculation is still accurate...

>>689916939
this allows for the event of 0 crits

>>689917285
>>689917279
Retarded

1/3

>>689912733
25%

>>689917279
No critical has been established, merely the case in which no critical has been ruled out.

no crit / crit
and
crit/ no crit are both still viable and still equally likely to crit/crit

>>689917279
You don't understand do you

It's 1/3 shut the fuck up you uneducated niggers

>>689917541
Wrong but its ok to be dumb :)

>>689917279
the crit hasn't been established, it could be the first or the second hit, making 1 crit twice as likely as 2

>>689917580
See it's not wrong at all.

>>689917037
You're a shit programmer you forgot to include the information 'at least one of has to be a crit' so it has to be
x = rand()
y = rand()
if(x == y and not (x==0 and y==0))

>>689917037

You're checking if both are cross, which is 25%
If you want to test the problem here then you only count results where at least 1 is a critical, then count how many of those qualifying results are both hit. Your brute force will return around 33%

>>689912733
Each hit has a 50% chance regardless of the number of hits you take, or the number of previous successes you have. 1 hit or 5 million, 50% is 50%.

>>689913883
>Mathematician here
>Autist here

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>>689917632
whoops @@;
my bad yall, haha

>>689917644
oh it is, unintelligent human :)

>>689913567
Not at all.
One of the events is already a crit, so even by your flawed scheme it would be 1 * 1/2 = 1/2 or 50% chance.

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Crit & Not Crit are mutually exclusive, so you ignore the probability of it not being a crit and instead work on the same basis as the whole 'bag full of coloured beads, take one out, don't put it back' scenario.

>>689914642
this
>>689915053
he's right tho... are you the one saying 75% cuz thats legit retarded. youre odds dont increase, they decrease. logic your way out of it dude.

>>689912733
1/3rd

>>689917279
youre assuming that one hit has been made and youre calculating the chance the next hit will be a crit. thats not the scenario in question.

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>>689917738

>>689917721
No that is not how probability works.

>>689917788
I get it now, you're right. That's what I was doing

>>689917783
wrong

>>689917738
Please explain. I know you are wrong it's just fun to kick at people once they're down.

>>689917930
It's right.

>>689916933
Let me give you an example.

Someone tells you he's thinking about a number between 1 and 100.
What's the probability it's 1? Well it's 1% of course.
Now he also tells you his number is smaller than 3. What's now the probability his number is 1?
According to you it would still only be 1% but that's wrong. There are only two possibilitys: 1 or 2 so it's 50%. We can ignore all other numbers which not match the given condition.

Really, just look up condition probability.

>>689917764

You didn't expand the not critical tree. The second hit could be a critical, which would still fit into the statement "one of them is a critical"

>>689917935
dont need to, you wont get it anyways with your intelligence :-)

It's 0.25. What's the probability of you hitting ten (50%) crits in a row? 0.09765625%. Because you have to take into consideration the probability of every single crit that occurs.

>>689916657
how is it twice as likely when its either going to be
crit+crit or crit+non crit

>>689917788
1 is always a crit you mongoloid

>>689918084
This

>>689916933
>>689917037
It's given that there is at least one critical.
We all agree that there are four equally possible possibilities in two hits, unless you're retarded: two regular hits, first critical second regular, first regular second critical, both critical (RR, CR, RC, CC)
Now, it's given that there is AT LEAST one critical, so we're calculating P(X=2 | X>=1) or the probability that there are two criticals, given that there is at least one. Two critical hits fall within the given statement, therefore will be counted. The two chances of one critical fall within the given statement, therefore will be counted. The chance of no criticals, however, does not fall within the given statement, and will be excluded.

Now, we have, through the given statement, the possibilities (CR, RC, CC). Now, we're looking for the probability of (CC), which is one out of the three given possibilities. Therefore, the answer is 33%.

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>>689918084

>>689918066
So I win if you can't disprove me?

>>689912733
>stop browsing /b/ for a few months
>come back and see this question with different wording for the 100th time
>people still think it's 50/50
never change /b/

>>689917935
You sound like the biggest edge lord believable

I was saying .5, it's clearly .33.
Just calm down and think about it.

>>689918205
no, i win because you actually think its 33%, but if you want to say you win for no reason, thats fine, its what children do :)

>>689916933
So you're saying what if the question was,
"what is the probability of getting no crits, but 1 hit is a crit?"

>>689918205
Don't take the bait fren

>>689918021
The question was 'what is the probability that BOTH hits are critical'. Your statement is irrelevant to the question at hand, we're not working out if 'one of them is critical'.

>>689917731
see
>>689916316

>>689918298
3 possible outcomes, one of them has two critical hits. 1/3.

1:4

>>689917714
>>689917693
Yeah, i forget about x == 0 and y ==0. Now it's getting near 33%. Now i understand.

>>689917731
My autist roommate failed his Probability Theory class specifically because of his inability to understand given statements.

>>689918122
flip 2 coins a few times, you'll quickly see that h/t happens about twice as often as h/h. Because in reality it's 2 different events one being h/t, the other being t/h. They just look the same so you can say it's one event that's just twice as likely

>>689913103
>>689913269
>>689913288
>>689913502
>>689913670
>>689913746
>>689913795
>>689913810
>>689913824
>>689913883
>>689913914
>>689914032
>>689914033
>>689914120
>>689914183
>>689914316
>>689914375
>>689914425
>>689914453
>>689914504
>>689914657
>>689915442
>>689915680
>>689915631
>>689915680
>>689915696
>>689915786
>>689915894
>>689916062
>>689916067
>>689916188
>>689916251
>>689916393
>>689916441
>>689916702
>>689916749
>>689916765
>>689916796
>>689916847
>>689916951
>>689917261
>>689917279

The "at least one of the hits is a crit" is superfluous information. If you had studied probability you'd know that the correct answer is 0.5*0.5 = 0.25 or 25%. All other answers are incorrect. Period.

>>689918416
you either hit or you dont, sorry friend, its 50/50 but good try, just work on the math a bit, ok? :)

>>689916095
This.

>>689918537
B8 right?

>>689918127
one of the two hits is a crit, not the first hit is a crit. not only do you fail at simple conditional probability, but your reading comprehension is quite poor too. dont worry champ, youll learn this by the time you graduate high school.

the acrimony in this thread is a good example of why people lose all their money gambling and making bad choices. probability isn't natural for most people. a lot, including myself, overestimated the chances by 17%

>>689918419
just FYI 1:4 means 20%:80% or 1/5:4/5 and not 1/4 or 25%

>>689918588
Just realized this is b8. :P

>>689918537
THe funny thing is the question is famous for having people argue between 1/3ed and 1/2, but you, you're a special little guy aren't you.

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i just cant understand the level of retartidity in here

>>689918537
THIS. Please someone help these poor, imbecilic souls that don't understand this.

>>689917840
Yes it is, by giving the outcome of one of the hits it is no longer a question of probability. You're estimating the chance that the remaining hit is a crit, since the other has occurred. 1*.5 = .5 the probability is 25% before either hit is taken, its 50% after the first is confirmed.

>>689918537

Absolutely incorrect.

"At least one of them is crit" is essential information. It removes the possibility of them being both non-critical. So there's only 3 possibilities. CC, NC and CN.

Answer is 1/3 = 33%, not 25%.

>>689918537
>superfluous
Absolutely wrong. This information tells you to eliminate the fourth possibility and that's crucial to solving the problem.

>>689918537
>>689918610
if we take this bait will he start yelling about how he is a math genius and has a foot long dick that he fucks bitches with by impressing them with bad math?

>>689918740
samefag

>>689918610
No, moron. Look up how to solve probability problems if you wanna find out

>>689918769
Very famous question. You are arguing with Eeinsteins opinion just fyi.

>>689918619
I didn't say the first is always a crit. I said one of them is a crit.
>And your reading comprehension is quite poor too.
Nice irony

>>689918769
25% no crits
50% one crit
25% two crits

when no crits is removed, chance of two crits is 25/75 or 1/3

>>689918537
I checked it by script, statistics say, that you wrong.

>>689918740
You're both wrong.
I'll give you this information:
>At least one of my children is a boy.
Now answer this question:
>Are both my children girls?

>>689918878
Very famous question. You are arguing with Eeinsteins opinion just fyi.

>>689918675
I thought that's how you wrote probabilities too, no?

>>689912733
0%

>>689918769
No hit already has an outcome, reread the question

"AT LEAST ONE OF X ARE Y" does not mean "THIS X IS Y" is just means in this group of Xes at least on is a Y.

>>689918694
Because it's 25%. It can't be a third, because there isn't three possibilities anyway. There's Crit-Not crit, Not crit- crit, crit- crit and not crit- not crit. Using you people's method (which is the way that 11 year olds do probability) shows that its 0.25. 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4.

>>689918769
you're not given the outcome of a specific hit. you're simply told that the no crit scenario did not occur as at least one hit critted.

>>689918662
It's not so much why people lose gambling, but why people gamble at all. If you learn a decent amount of probability theory, you know that every casino and other gambling area is made so that the house should always have a significant profit, as long as the players aren't cheating or doing heavy cooperation.

>crit
>crit

>crit
>not crit

>not crit
>crit

>crit
>crit

possiblility of double crit is 2 out of 4 times
therefore 50% chance of having double crit

>>689918537
>The "at least one of the hits is a crit" is superfluous information

Are you actually brain dead? Having at least one as a crit eliminates the possibility of of a no crit outcome. The situation isn't "2 strikes with a 50% crit chance" it's "1 strike with 50% and the other is 100%"

Which leaves you with 3 possible outcomes not 4.

>>689919067
Very famous question. You are arguing with Eeinsteins opinion just fyi.

I have the ability to look at and immediately solve problems. The answer is 25%

>>689918694
>>689918740
>>689918828
>>689918847
>>689918859

Lol. I think the real problem here is that they didn't teach any of you enough math at school. All you gotta do is google real quick if you're really interested

>>689919116
I was assuming people gamble a little for fun. But some people think you can win at it, so they keep overestimating their chances and lose their shirt.

>>689919124

Literally retarded.

>>689919184
Wrong.
Very famous question. You are arguing against Eeinsteins opinion just fyi.

>>689919076
The question rules out not crit- not crit
gey your head checked familam

>>689919124
how do you even manage to breathe

>>689919017
it's how you write a ratio, if you wanted to write a probability like that you certainly could.
if you meant to say it had a 1/5 probability then it was the right way to put it, I just don't see how you could get that

>>689913914
I came up with the same thing.

Fucking retards. 0.5 × 0.5= 0.25 or 1/4 or 25%

>>689919222
Very famous question. You are arguing against Eeinsteins opinion just fyi. But I suppose he was wrong.

>>689919116
Actually if you know how to play you can actually have a higher probability to win than the house in Craps.

>>689919184
While it strongly depends on how the question is asked (and the OP question doesn't contain the necessary information to give an absolute solution) if the answer is 1/3 or 1/2, 25% is NEVER the correct solution.

>>689912733
Over all there's a 25% chance to crit two times
There's a 25 you don't crit at all
And 50 that you only crit once.

Since we know you hit once for x2dmg then we can go ahead and mark of the possibility of not landing any at all.

I'm not good with percentage but I know the fraction chance is
1/3
1 possibly for the first hit to be a crit
1 possibly for the second hit to crit
And 1 possibly for both hits to crit

It's a 33.3%.


Unless you're a stormtrooper.


Then it's 0%.

>>689919124
my sides

>>689919080
which means only one of the hits matters in the calculation, since the other is stated. it doesnt matter what order they're in, if you know what one of them is its not a question of probability anymore. you should only try to calculate the unknown, which has a 50%.

>>689912733
youve completely fucked up the question and those fucking retards are still fucking retards

>>689919124
66,6%

1. crit hit
2. crit crit

making the third 3. a possibility outcome that has nothing to do with the first 2 outcomes

>>689919222
Answer this post >>689918985 , then.

>>689918950
and yet you still cant get it right. never mind champ youll get there one day.

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128 KB, 774x1032

>>689919462
Fuck off traitor

>>689919421
i dont think thats true. and ive played craps quite a bit.

>>689919549
But how do you account for the difference in probability when the critical hit happens first and when the critical hit happens second?

>>689919400
Well if Einstein would have answered anything other than 25% to this question than yes he was wrong

>>689914928
This guy is the winner

>>689912733
4 equally likely outcomes:
CC
CN
NC
NN

Excluding NN from the outcome set as per the question, one out of three equally likely outcomes results in two crits, ergo:

1/3

>>689919678
yes, that is a good way of saying it

>>689919021
H = hit
N = no hit
Prob(NN) = 0%
If prob(HH) > 0% then prob (H) > 50%
Therefore the answer is 0%