So, in a recent interview, Shigeru Miyamoto stated with more than three hundred names attached to the game's development that lasted for five years, the upcoming Zelda game would have to sell 300 000 copies in Japan, and 2 million globally in order to be considered a success.
Given the high attach rate for every other first party title on the WiiU, and the fact that it'll be sold both on the WiiU and the NX, it should be a given that it will, right ?
Thoughts on this ?
Was the highest trending topic on social media for two weeks and is still being talked about constantly everywhere. It will sell far more than 2 million, and will likely sell some Wii U hardware too.
>>343167540
What other games are Wii U/NX users even going to buy? There isn't anything else
It should hit 2 mill easy
>>343167540
If this is what they expect from their flagship game, how low are their sales goals for smaller games?
I bet it proves wrong all these people that thought Bayonetta and Wonderful 101 were failures
>>343167687
I dunno about goals, but MK8 was a multi-million seller. When you have 2-3 games come out a year, most of your user base will buy.
>>343167687
Bayo 2 was definitely a success for Nintendo, and judged by bayos existence, W101 was too.
>>343167687
Their well known games (Mario, Zelda) are generally expected to sell 1 million.
The average game is expected to sell between 500k-800k, which is likely where Bayo 2 was projected.
Niche games can be projected anywhere from 50k (Fatal Frame) to 200k.
Basically, Nintendo loves their budgets and Devil's Third is probably the only game that failed.
Smash wii u got close to 3.5 million iirc, 2 million should be easy for a zelda game
>>343167880
bayo 2 was negotiated while w101 was in production simply because kamiya and nintendo producers kept interacting so much
>>343167540
what's interesting is that THE biggest game Nintendo has ever made (by their own admission) with 300 credited staff and 3+ years of production needs to sell JUST 2 million to be profitable
This creates two thoughts:
1. what kind of margins Nintendo makes on games with lesser budgets like Tomodachi or Splatoon which was made by interns and still sells millions
2. what the fuck is WRONG is Capcpcom if their lesser games REQUIRE 4 million+ to self-sustain? And Square-Enix is even more hopeless in that regard
>>343168414
>Smash wii u got close to 3.5 million iirc
Smash is 4.8 m:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/software/wiiu.html
>A Zelda game only needs 2 mil to be a success
Nintendo must be really good at cutting costs
How much money do you think Splatoon made when the budget for that game was almost nothing and ended up selling gangbusters?
>>343168435
Nintendo makes money on consoles and probably licences too
>>343167540
Hey OP, don't forget the interview did say the 300 000 / 2M global was the short term (two week ?) sales target
>>343168494
Even better, i'm surprised it's sold that much more since last time i checked.
>>343167540
Relatively speaking, it would have to do pretty terribly not to manage 2.3M sales.
>Mario Kart 8: 7.5 million
>New Super Mario Bros. U: 5.19 million
>Nintendo Land: 5.07 million
>Super Mario 3D World: 4.82 million
>Super Smash Bros. for Wii U: 4.8 million
>Splatoon: 4.27 million
>Super Mario Maker: 3.52 million
>New Super Luigi U: 2.49 million
It would have to do worse than all these 8 games in order to fail to hit its mark.
Granted that the top 3 of this list were all bundled with the Wii U in various bundles at launch. But then again, if Nintendo doesn't do an NX bundle with Zelda BotW I'd be very surprised.
>>343167540
Only 2 mil? It's going to sell much more.
Can't wait to pirate it
>>343167540
>2 Million
What Wii U games have sold more than that? I'm not shitposting I am genuinely curious
>>343169124
Scroll up, dumbass
>>343167540
>>343167687
It wasn't the sales target, Miyamoto said that in order for Nintendo to make back the money they spent on the game they'd have to sell over two million. You gotta read carefully what people say.
>>343168582
I don't have a source that I can find. But I am pretty sure I read an official statement from somewhere stating that Splatoon is one of their absolute biggest successes in a very long time. And the context of the discussion was financials if I can remember correctly.
So I am pretty sure they profited a lot from it. And good on them. Splatoon is great.
>>343169263
I mean the game looks good but now I hope it fails.
>>343168874
>Mario Kart 8
>7.5 million
Remember all those articles saying it would be the worst selling Mario Kart
>>343169349
It'll sell alright, but it's not going to be that big of a deal come launch. The NX needs to win over the casual crowd that think they haven't made a console since the original Wii
2 million is surprisingly moderate if you ask me.
I would've guessed 3-4 million now with an NX release coming. But I guess they made it according to the Wii U's install base
The fact that splatoon sold 4.3 mil blows my mind.
This game could hit 10 mil honestly. The hype is huge for it. It's the reason I bought a wiiu and I'm sure I'm not the only one.
>>343169432
I blame whoever decided to actually name the console the wii u
Even the Wii 2 would've been better.
I don't think they can recapture the casual market.
They will be all over VR once that really gets into swing.
>>343169547
They're always gonna have the diehard nitnendo crowd, but even they only care about amiibos now. Problem is that's not enough to sustain a successful console lifespan. Wii U had some pretty great exclusives, but it's still in dead fucking last.
>>343169628
I mean I consider myself a nintendo fan and I couldn't not give less of a shit about amiibos.
>>343168874
>>Splatoon: 4.27 million
Remember when /v/ said it wouldn't reach 1 million?
>>343169512
>This game could hit 10 mil honestly.
Only if the release of the NX is a huge success. They'll have to pull a TP to get that, then again BotW is a system seller if I ever saw one.
>>343167540
Honestly, I'm pretty damn sure that it'll sell over 2 million copies globally with ease. At least judging by the hype that the E3 footage created.
It does honestly have a lot of promise, so I hope Nintendo wont fuck it up.
How much did WWHD and TPHD sell?
Where did he "state" the most recent asspull
>>343169628
Amiibos are a decent market at the moment. They were pretty big last year, but the bubble has burst, and now it's just garbage they shit out regularly to maybe get some people away from the skylanders crowd.
I'm not saying Nintendo should go software only, but their biggest hope to make any money off of kids and casuals/parents is to just double down on Amiibos and one giant shovelware title that's full of microtransactions that require amiibos. The fact that they're puttting so much into Zelda is kind of amazing, because it's not going to be the success they need.
>>343169713
>that one anon who made a bet that it wouldn't sell over a few thousand
>>343169721
Emphasis on *could* and I say this cause its gonna be on two platforms and Mario kart 8 sold 7.5 mil. Where's all the other major Mario releases? Where's a proper 3D Mario, they need a sunshine sequel, a 64 esque sequel, a galaxy sequel. Any of them, or something they've never done before. They need a major metroid game or a Pokemon game like the ones they have for 3DS. People would eat that shit up.
>>343170346
> Where's a proper 3D Mario
on wii u, it sold ~5 million
>They need a major metroid game
no they don't, nobody gives a shit
> Pokemon game like the ones they have for 3DS
you seem to be parroting the same meme-like statements that people who are ignorant about how videogame business works keep repeating like "grimdark MMO Pokemon on Unreal 3!!!!!oneone"
>>343169829
Not well
>>343168246
>Their well known games (Mario, Zelda) are generally expected to sell 1 million.
Try 3m.
>>343169713
>>343170027
I don't care about sales, but goddamn that guy sure shut the fuck up.
If you're in this thread, fuck you. You were a faggot for the worst reason.
>>343170882
Has he eaten the crows and dicks yet?
>>343169407
>Mario Kart 8
>Didn't sell 8 million
JUST
>>343169713
I wish I could play that game without 500 ping nips
>>343167540
Considering what Splatoon sold and the massive levels of hype BotW has generated, it should (theoretically) be able to hit the target of 2.3 million.
>>343171020
It probably will.
>>343168582
>Nintendo must be really good at cutting costs
Nintendo have always been fucking wizards when it comes to optimizing hardware and cost.
>>343171163
Pisses me off that the only things the NX has to offer at this point is BOTW and some super version of MK8.
I didn't buy the Wii U until year 2.5, and I'm guessing the NX might be dead and buried by that timeframe because there's no way in hell any third party support is going to follow them into this "new" gen
>>343171263
>some super version of MK8.
What?
>>343167640
>will likely sell some Wii U hardware too
That's the last problem Nintendo has at the moment.
Splatoon and Mario Maker did so well in Japan, that the WiiU was sold out fucking everywhere over there.
>>343171296
Some tweets were posted during e3 with teasing about some sort of upgrade to MK8
>>343171212
>go to hardware manufacturer
>we're fucking nintendo, one of the most respected companies in japan. give us some of your old shit
not exactly magic m8
>>343171404
Way to completely not understand what's being talked about.
>>343171296
Mario kart 8 ball edition including all the dlc
>>343171296
300cc was hinted at. Or some kind of dumb shit like that
>>343171591
The courses barely worked for 200cc. Why would you do that?
Why is Nintendo being so secretive with NX? Is it not finished being developed, or are they really going to introduce some wacky new gimmick to get the casuals back? I mean, what can they release that would get more attention from casuals than VR?
>>343171641
>barely
Try not at all.
Everyone thinks they'll introduce 300cc with stage mods
>>343171670
They've perfected AR in secret.
>>343169512
That's what happens when you innovate effectively instead of innovating solely for the sake of innovating.
>>343167640
>and will likely sell some Wii U hardware too.
I'm considering buying a Wii U just for this game. The last Nintendo I owned was a SNES, so I'm kinda out of the loop when it comes to good Nintendo games these days, especially since most of my gaming is done on PC.
>>343171060
I wish I could play without wagglin.
>>343171775
Why not buy the new NX for it though?
>>343167540
Profits are meaningless. It's all about sales numbers.
>>343171670
Nintendo has been like this for as long as I remember. It's nothing new at all. I'm actually hugely surprised how much we know about Zelda, probably because they know it's awesome as fuck.
>>343167540
>it dosent hit the goal because everyone just pirates it and nintendo goes back to the SS formula
>>343171853
Not that anon, but WiiU will have way more games. Plus it's hacked, so you don't have to buy games
>>343171713
Wii U could have been perfect for AR. Imagine finding ghosts in Luigi's Mansion, surveying the battlefield in FE, making levels in the real world in MM, or live Pokemon battles in AR. Does anyone at Nintendo have an imagination besides the guys that made Splatoon?
>>343171932
If it runs as good as TPHD, which runs like shit on loadiine, I'd rather pay
>>343171296
Would love that to be honest.
Mario kart 8 is pretty much perfect, so if they could release some more new courses I would be thrilled.
>>343172050
>so if they could release some more new courses I would be thrilled.
So, make another DLC pack for the Wii U. What's the problem? The previous two were great.
>>343171991
>WiiU will have way more games
Interesting joke anon. Kinda weird that you follow up your joke with a fact though. It might make some people think that you weren't joking.
>>343172050
It's not perfect. Diddy Kong Racing trumps it.
>>343167540
>the upcoming Zelda game would have to sell 300 000 copies in Japan, and 2 million globally in order to be considered a success.
Wow, that seems worringly low. Smash fucking pushed units and it is a little concerning that he doesn't think this would push WiiU/NX.
>>343172136
Why would you buy a new console which we know nothing about, rather than a cheaper one that already has games?
>>343171853
Not him. I won't buy a console day one for one or two games, no matter how good they are.
I buy consoles at the end of their cycle, so I buy them cheaper and I can enjoy their whole library, without droughts.
>>343172136
What's the joke? WiiU has more games than NX, and NX will catch up in three years if it lives that long
>>343171670
>Why is Nintendo being so secretive with NX?
To be completely fair though. Are they really? I mean relatively speaking.
Have Microsoft and Sony in any way been any less secretive about their upcoming machines? Up until recently we didn't even know about them, but you can know for sure that they've been ongoing projects for ages already.
The biggest difference honestly appears to be that people have talked about and spread rumors about the NX for far longer, ever since people had Nintendo leak the name NX when pressing them on the idea of whether or not they were leaving the dedicated gaming business for mobile after the DeNA stuff.
But otherwise it mostly just looks like they've said about as much everyone else. Which is essentially nothing.
>>343172232
>Smash fucking pushed units
Hardly, considering the 3DS version completely cannibalized Wii U copies and Wii U units.
>>343172251
>no matter how good they are.
If playing Zelda got your dick sucked every day just because well then I'd buy the NX on day one.
I actually think buying my Wife an NX+BOTW will get my dick sucked quite a lot.
>>343172245
>Why would you buy a new console which we know nothing about
You are right. We know nothing about it. That is why you actually wait till you do know something, and make an informed decision. On the other hand, we do know something already about Nintendo. Nintendo has always dropped their old systems in favor of the new systems. That means what you have with the Wii U is almost guaranteed to be your final lineup of games.
So with that in mind, don't you think it is worth it to see what the NX is before you go and spend money?
>>343167540
maybe
they should just make a bundle and be done with the wii u
>>343172251
>anon either doesn't have a backlog, or is somehow incapable of owning more than one system at a time
I've never had a gaming drought since I started playing games 25 years agowhen I was 4.
>>343171853
As I said, I'm not in the know when it comes to Nintendo, but what these two said makes sense
>>343171991
>>343172251
>Miyamoto: I heard VR was a hot topic at E3, so I went to check it out. It was on display, but it wasn’t what I expected. We’re also researching VR, so we have the core technology.
What did he mean by this?
So wait, Japan only accounts for 15% of Zelda's audience?
>>343172729
It means get ready for Virtualboy II, baby.
>>343172760
Japan doesn't really give a shit about Zelda.
Or console gaming
Seems like very possible expectations. Considering that Wii U was like 8-10 million or something and most of the Wii U owners are Nintendo fans anyway. Since the system isnt overflowing with games currently, I can easily see all the fans of Zelda and casual fans alike just picking it up for their systems. Not really counting that many people would actually go out of their way to buy Wii U for it, but 2 million doesnt sound impossible even with the current user base.
>>343172760
Japan was never too hot on Zelda. It's all Europe and North America.
>>343172729
"We might be slightly behind on the VR train, but we are working on it and the rest hasn't shown anything worthwhile either."
>>343172812
>or console gaming
Bullshit. Then what do they play their games on? Literally the only games Japan plays on PC are porn games and RPG maker shit.
>>343172897
>Then what do they play their games on?
Their phones, you fucking mong.
Get with the times.
>>343168602
What does that have to do with an individual games budget/needed sales to be profitable
If I was Nintendo I would market the fuck out of the NX version and let the Wii U version quietly slip out with it, like they did with Twilight Princess.
I'm extremely surprised Nintendo decided to only show off the Wii U version at E3. Feels like they are pushing a console that's basically already finished and won't get anymore games.
You want people to buy Zelda with your new console, not the old one you're retiring.
>>343172897
Phones and handhelds you moron
>>343173051
But the Gamecube version of Twilight Princess is better than the Wii version.
>>343167540
>with more than three hundred names attached to the
>game's development that lasted for five years
>game looks like early PS2 game/Steam Early Access indie shit made by 5 people. No Man's Sky is made by two people and shits all over it in terms of technology, graphics, scope, mechanics etc.
Jesus Christ. Nintendo just needs to die at this point. This is pathetic and embarassing beyond imagination.
>>343173112
This.
>>343173225
At least there's something to do in BotW
>>343173112
>But the Gamecube version of Twilight Princess is better than the Wii version.
That wasn't really what I was talking about.
>>343173112
Aiming actually works well in the Wii Version.
I wish there was a version were the wiimote only is for aiming and no wagglan.
>>343173225
>This is pathetic and embarassing beyond imagination.
I like how you sum up your post at the end. I wish more people did that.
>>343173335
TP:HD has gyro aiming
>>343173225
>looks like early PS2 game
>shits all over it in terms of technology
Good thing you are so informed. Screw those people at digital foundry pointing out all the advanced techniques used in the game that aren't used in most modern games. Fuck those ignorant fucks. Who the hell do they think they are to tell us lies, when we have our very own anon to prove them wrong?
>>343167687
>Zelda is flagship
Mario Kart, Smash, and other multiplayer games are flagship. Zelda and other single player games are supplemental
It's pretty much a given at this point. Like OP said, Nintendo doesn't really have any issue selling games, and they sure as fuck won't have an issue selling Zelda.
The real question is: Will the NX also sell?
>>343173397
Do you have a link to that? Sounds interesting
>>343173496
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2016-the-legend-of-zelda-breath-of-the-wild-pushes-wii-u-hardware-to-the-limit
One typo is I meant to type out "most modern Wii U games". To sum up the article, the game is pushing the Wii U more than it can handle, which is where the performance issues are coming into play.
We might end up with a gimped version of the game at the end of the day, just so it can run on the Wii U. I'm just hoping the NX is strong enough for a non-gimped version, and that they are willing to have 2 versions be that different.
>meanwhile Tomb Raider sells 5 million and SE say it hasn't sold well enough
what the fuck
>>343174086
Exclusive titles have different goals, anon
>>343167540
That's pretty easy for a Zelda game, especially for both consoles.maybe Pachter will be right this time
I don't consider myself a fan of the recent Nintendo (I own a PS4 and a PC now) but I would be happy if this Zelda is the new vision of them.
I sold my 3DS and Wii U because I was tired of Neo-Nintendo bullshit but if NX shows good games (like pre-2013 or even better, pre-Wii) so I'm in again and to be honest, I don't think I'm the only one who thinks the same.
>>343169349
>I mean the game looks good but now I hope it fails.
Neo /v/ for ya, I hope you die of cancer fag.
>>343174815
It could mean the end of nintendo.
Tell me you don't want to see that.
>>343174867
I don't.
Anon, wanting a flop is never a good thing. You should always want games coming out to be good. More good games are always good.
Stop looking for the next TORtanic and just enjoy video games, man.
>>343174867
No not really but that's because I'm not an idiot who understands that killing off any big company like this would be a huge hit to the industry that it already getting to the point of bloating to the point of crashing and innovation is the only thing to look forward to now but your the text book meaning of gaming cancer.
>>343175007
I want the game to be good but be a commercial failure so Nintendo goes third party.
>>343175031
Because the previous crash didn't result in good shit for us?
>>343175045
Nintendo's not going to go third party, you fucking retard.
Worst case scenario is that they just go handheld-only, since those do consistently well.
>>343175098
No it nearly killed the industry and cause the highest prices (adjusted for inflation) because there was only one game in town to buy from.
Dude you tards are the worse, I get your 12 but come on, your punny brain should at least be able to see how disastrous it would be now in this day and age.
>>343175098
The crash was bullshit, video games didn't fucking die out because of the first crash, they died in America, Britain was still fuckingaround with spectrums and shit.
>>343167540
it means the game is low budget garbage
>>343167540
5 million on wii u. 10 on NX. Including digital. Lifetime of course.
>>343175104
Nobody would've thought sega would go third party either before the dreamcast.
The results don't matter. I hope nintendo gets kicked in the nuts metaphorically for stagnating so much.
>>343168494
its still a shitty smash game.
>>343175490
Industry with no other console companies but Sony and MS would be shittier than shit.
>>343175650
At least they evolved.
Nintendo has been stagnant for ages now
>>343175045
>>343174867
you don't have to be bitter just because you lost a Splatoon bet and had to eat your shit
>>343175490
Sega released blunder after blunder and had no money left, Nintendo is coming off of their most two most profitable platforms ever and the 3DS and maybe Wii U by now are profitable themselves. They're not going out of business.
>>343175715
They really didnt. Both have been the same shit since their inception.
>>343175919
Sony evolved so much.
They have been on a roll since the ps2.
Nintendo would do so well as a sony third party.
>>343175490
>implying
Sega was fucking bleeding money out of their goddamned assholes for like three gens straight, the saturn flopped, all their add ons flopped, and they had consistently failed to become top dog.
>>343175715
Literally the opposite. Sony and MS have largely delivered the same experience with better visuals with each console. None had any radically different features that weren't tied simply to the advancement of technology and would have happened anyway, like media playback, online play or the transition to optical discs. Nintendo has tried to "innovate" with hardware many times, Virtualboy, DS, Wii, etc. and they often get tons of shit for it, fans asking for a "stagnant" console that just had better graphics instead.
>>343176117
>new mario
>new zelda
>new mario kart
wooo
so much innovation
>>343176178
>wooo
>so much innovation
those words have been used too much get rid of them they are stagnant
>>343176313
>Even the complaining about Nintendo is getting boring.
I think you made my point stronger even if you think that was clever.
>>343173995
the only thing that bothers me is that the framerate test seems to be taken from the stream, like the stream wasn't a pile of shit
here's hoping for it to run well enough at launch
>>343176178
There are as many God of War games as there are Mario Kart games, GoW released in 2005 and Mario Kart in 1992. There have been four NSMB games on four platforms since 2006, 3D Mario is different every time. Zelda constantly gets crap for trying new things and not being OoT again.
Nintendo tries to innovate with both hardware and software frequently and its a massive source of ire for tons of people, I don't know what rock you've been living under.
>>343167640
>>343171775
>and will likely sell some Wii U hardware too.
IT will not when the NX is so close and will literally come out at the same time. If people buy nnew console, it will be the NX.
What we will see, on the other hand, is a rise in sale of Wii U in the second hand market.
>>343172706
Nintendo will most likely make the NX retrocompatible, though.
>>343169349
Why?
>>343176789
Because it could hurt Nintendo and they need to be shaken up a little.
>>343176818
Does Nintendo need to be hurt when they make games that look as good as Breath of the Wild?
>>343176818
Yes, we need season passes on every game, day-one patches that fix games shipped broken and Doritos and Dew ads on the NX dashboard. Nintendo needs to modernize and get third party support, we need to play the same AAA games 90% of customers will just buy on PS4 anyway because the demographics are different.
>>343176953
Breath of the Wild does not make up for the lackluster Wii and WiiU libraries.
>>343177012
Wii has a great library, you turbocunt. Best and most varied exclusives of the 7th gen consoles.
it'll sell 2 million.
If the game comes out early next year it'll be bad but it'll still probably sell 2 million.
If the game comes out in 2018 it'll be finished and still probably sell 2 million.
2 million is a really low number. like "we're not talking about how unfinished this game is and how truly 'different' aka bad it is compared to other zelda games - and the only way to make it better is to spend even more time on it cause we've been jerking each other off for 4 years apparently" low.
Even still I think they've fooled at least 2 million people into buying the game from this E3 demo.
I expect as much to change between now and the next time they showed it as there was as much change between when they first showed it off and E3 2016.
>>343177138
Even SS sold 4 million. This game will sell well over 2 million, most Wii U games from Nintendo have very high attach rates. This one is certainly being marketed and propped up on the same level as Splatoon and Smash, it'll sell very well.
>>343167540
Based on discussion with my game group and the response on other stages, it's hardly even a question of "will it" and more a question of whether the WiiU version or the NX will sell more copies in the first few weeks. I would even argue that as one of the NX's first titles, it's going to be a given when the Christmas bundles are put on shelves.
>>343177414
doubtful this game will be ready for NX launch lol.
>>343177478
I think he means Christmas 2017, and NX will be out before then according to Nintendo do.
>>343177478
>>343177584
BotW is apparently slated as being a multi-gen release. I could see them overworking the development team just to push this out in time for the NX's release.
>>343177925
Nintendo confirmed as much before E3
>>343167640
Two *hours
>>343177138
You said so many absolutely retarded things in such rapid succession that I truly found it difficult to understand your point.
>>343167540
>million globally in order to be considered a success
They easily can make 4 million only on Wii U.
Do they pay their staff in peanuts? They have over 100 in active development and over 300 total in credits for a game that has been in development like for 5 years and only need to sell 3m or so to make profit?
>>343179779
Napkin math:
100 x $100,000/y x 5 years = $50,000,000
200 x $100,000/y x 2.5 years = $25,000,000
Marketing = $30,000,000
R&D = $20,000,000
Other = $30,000,000
---------------------------------
$145,000,000
2,000,0000 copies x $75/game = 150,000,000
idk, like I'm hugely guessing and I'm using 100k as an average but that isn't really that impossible of a number to consider.
>>343180208
>$75/game
Hello, friend.
wait, this is coming out early 2017... right??
>>343180592
March
>>343176818
They have already been shaken up. The Wii U is a failure.
>>343172021
Those TPHD loading times on loadiine made me buy the fucking game.
>>343181309
I'm happy I own TPHD.
The load times on Super Mario [x] 3D are long enough, I could only imagine a title like TPHD.
>>343167540
Uh, who fucking cares?
Iam not making money from this shit nor does this have anything to do with the quality of the gameplay.
Yes
But that's pretty amazing, it goes to show that Nintendo is very good about budget management. It will likely sell lifetime between 5 and 10 million.
>>343167640
>Was the highest trending topic on social media for two weeks and is still being talked about constantly everywhere
Yes because everyone wanted a female Link but now that it won't happen you can kiss those sales bye bye
>>343184139
