Is he a Clinton plant?
>>80855947
Yes
>>80855947
This info is going viral right now. This helps Trump more than any amount of money spent. He will use this against her in the debates
>Hillary Clinton spending that much money
>STILL gets BTFO
Trump 2016 is inevitable
>>80855947
Better to use money smart than waste it, Jeb spent gorillions of dollars and it meant nothing, Hillary is Jeb.
>>80856883
Yeah, I can imagine
"Look folks, I spent way less than Clinton and I'm losing! I'm so great!"
>>80857014
>BTFO
>Clinton predicted to win at >70%
>>80855947
hes waiting until the month before
hes in the news everyday already
>>80857130
>prediction made by Nate Bronze
>>80857130
relax Nate Silver Jr.
>>80857180
No, it's made by a prediction model.
Also, did you read his apology about assigning numbers to Trump from thin air early on?
>>80857130
>Hitler predicted to win the war
>>80855947
>democrat spends tons of money with no results
the jokes write themselves at this point
>>80857233
You're retarded. His model actually HELPS trump. If you do polls-only model Trumps chances go down
>>80857314
why do you care so much what hacks think?
>>80855947
>not understanding that the billions in free media coverage he gets is way more valuable than political ads
>>80857314
http://primarymodel.com/
>Trump = 87-99% chance of winning
Also, lmfao at "apology"
>"s-sorry for underestimating Trump throughout the nomination"
>proceeds to underestimate Trump leading into the general election
>Recent battleground state polls have Trump BTFO out of Clinton with double digits in Florida and even winning in Pennsylvania despite almost 0% ad revenue in those states relative to Hillarys millions
It's over, Bernie endorsing Hillary was a last ditch effort
Praise be Trump. MAGA
>>80857455
Because his model was able to predict Florida in 2012 when the polls couldn't.
Otherwise though, he's basically just a reflection of the polls. And Trump is doing terrible in the polls (and it doesn't seem like he even wants to get ahead based on OP pic)
>>80857414
dont go postal nate jr
>>80857624
Wasn't there a model that predicted Bernie would win too?
>muh pools
brexiters BTFO am i right you guis? xD
One of either two things.
He's either trying to lose or too inept to know how he can win. Both don't look favorable.
>>80857732
>model was able to predict Florida 2012
>Fucking Obama vs Mitt Romney
How can you use that as an argument? Any idiot could have guessed that "Muh Dindu" would win, he was popular as fuck with significantly larger rallies than Mitt Romney on top of being likeable. Hillary Clinton is seen as corrupt as they come.
Every evidence shows Trump as being more popular. His tweets are more popular on average, his facebook posts, his rallies are SIGNIFICANTLY larger and recently Trump has started winning in the polls (Battle ground state polls).
The polls don't even account for the FBI shit, it's literally over for Clinton nigger.
Hands Up Don't Shoot Hillary guarantees a Trump sweep of the swing states
>>80857872
Brexit was predicted to win by the polls
>>80855947
He's up in all those states, "under budget and ahead of schedule" isn't just a fucking meme.
>>80855947
If I repeat Trump is a bigot, racist and destroy the party of Lincoln every weekday morning till November election, will Trump lose?
>>80855947
You mean Bernie sanders right? Not trump
Kek Op isacuck Bernie supporter.
>>80858002
Joe was surprisingly uncucked this morning
>>80857823
That model was done by a super liberal college and had him running against Jeb and Marco so it was pretty biased and useless. The one at primary model is saying that based off primary turnout Trumps got it in the bag
>>80857947
nice meme it was literally losing by 10% 10 hours before voting started.
>>80857947
lol wut
No it wasn't even the last minute polls had remain up by two points.
>>80857923
Okay, let me make this clearer.
If you ONLY LOOKED AT STATE POLLS, then simply picking the bigger number would have allowed you to predict all of the states but one.
That one is Florida, and you need a good model to predict Florida, which Nate has
He already eliminated Ted Cruz and won the nomination. He never planned to become president and get tons of responsibilities. He's literally just marketing himself and his brand.
>>80858147
>>80858140
Wrong
>>80858034
Of course he wasn't, Trump is winning now.
>>80857923
Just because Trump has bigger online popularity doesn't mean that will translate to the real world. If that were true we'd be seeing Hillary endorsing Bernie instead of the other way around
CLINTON BUSH CLINTON
This is why Trump will win.
>>80857947
it wasnt
or by the financial markets, or bettors
>"How do we make sense of a Summer where Trump makes one mistake after another mistake after another mistake yet he still leads by 2 or 3 points in recent polls"
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
>>80858344
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/06/22/final-eve-vote-brexit-poll-remain-leads-two/
>>80858479
See >>80858344
Polls > bookies
>>80858707
See >>80858344
Average of all polls > single poll
>>80855947
Word of mouth is the beat advertising, obviously.
Will you be attending the torch lit rallies where we burn commie faggot books and Jewish smut when the time comes?
![Free-TV-Time-For-Trump-copy-e1458588547125[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/dYi4B7A.jpg "Free-TV-Time-For-Trump-copy-e1458588547125[1].jpg")
>>80855947
he doesn't need to buy attention since he's getting it for free
>>80855947
Big Don will inevitably make fun of Clintoris for spending a gorillion dollars with no end product, just like Jeb. This couldn't be playing out any better.
>>80858979
I dunno... Seems like a huge risk just so he can take one jab at her. Also see >>80857039
>>80858479
>http://primarymodel.com/
All that means is that more money was put into the bookies on a bets. 1 Guy putting £1000 will drift it the same as 1000 putting in £1.
>>80855947
It's current_year.exe
Fairly certain you can win an election using kikebook, twitter and cheap newspaper ads. Just these three.
>>80855947
Wow, and he's only been like 6 points behind for months. Everyone is always talking about getting money out of politics but its looking more and more like the money doesn't actually get you that far. Tens of millions of dollars to pull ahead of a guy who barely spent one.
>>80855947
Ha yes OP ppl been saying this for awhile now. Always been a possibility, given their past. There are no rules to this.
>>80859386
Yeah, worked for Bernie
>>80855947
Americans are whores. Who might have guessed?
>>80855947
And while spending so little money compared to her he's getting even higher ratings.
hmm... maybe the only people who like her are the ones she's paying money to...
hmm...
>>80859497
She has to pay people to like her
And the media is against him, so they fudge his numbers.
>>80858735
>>80858836
the polls had remain winning, as did the markets, and bettors
they were all wrong
>>80860302
How much do I have to pay a black whore to vote for me? What is the current vote/USD exchange rate?
>>80859729
Bernie.
Do you mean the guy that spent a third world country's GDP on a failed election by spamming and shilling on media that he says he hates?
Or is it another Bernie we're talking about.
>>80858358
>Just because Trump has bigger online popularity doesn't mean that will translate to the real world
What year is this?
>>80860327
>the polls had remain winning
Nope, if you could read a graph you'd know Leave pulled ahead
>>80860562
The year where Bernie lost
>>80860693
A communist lost in USA? Well fuck me, that was unexpected.
"Polls had indicated the vote would be very close, but most last-minute surveys showed “remain” leading. Two internet pollsters conducted day-of surveys on Thursday that were released after the polls closed. YouGov and Ipsos-MORI both indicated that “remain” would win the day — YouGov had the status quo up by 4 points, and Ipsos-MORI had it up by 6 points."
JUST
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/brexit-polls-missed_us_576cb63fe4b017b379f58610
>>80860636
ask your parents for help
>>80858461
what about the bush before clinton
it's really:
Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, (Clinton or Trump)
>>80857039
>>80859158
Except that he's currently leading in the swing state polls
gtfo shill
>>80855947
>spends nearly zero
>is tied or winning on polls
sounds like a real winner to me. Why spend money when he gets >>80858965
for free?
>>80860636
Exit polls were 52 vs 48 in favour of remain.
>>80856883
this honestly.
I wouldn't be surprised if clinton cut down on spending just to make it appear like shes not bought but its already too late.
>>80857947
Baha uwot
>>80855947
>muh spending muh votes meme
Sorry ¡Yeb! it still won't work.
Colorado here; last week I saw a handful of people who were holding anti-Trump signs and telling everyone who walked by to not vote for him because he will destroy the country.
I'm not even a Trump supporter but this sort of stuff pisses me off. Fucking nerds need to get a life instead of wasting their Saturday trying to persuade people to vote for shillary. Now it occurred to me that they possibly have been getting paid for it.
>>80857039
More like
"Look folks, Hillary is spending millions upon millions in ads against me and she barely has lead on me. Heck, she even lost that lead for a few days. Perhaps she's afraid of something?"
>>80857314
Which model, famalam? The only model I am aware of is the primary model and it has Trump winning.
>>80861136
Not a trend, likely a bump from the terrorist attacks by isis and blm
>>80863325
Answer my question, you faggot.
>>80862706
>>80863421
You can read about it on his site http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/
>>80864133
>http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/
Nate Silver
Yeah, fuck off you immense faggot.
If you are using Silver because he was right a few times, what do you think of the primary model that projects Trump winning? You know, the model that had Obama winning?
primarymodel.com
>>80855947
Ask the Foolish Guac Bowl Merchant how spending $100 helped him out
>>80864615
No, I'm using silver because he sticks to the polls, which are right by themselves 99% of the time.
See >>80858149
At this point your arguing against polls, not Nate. Hell, nate's model actually boosts Trumps chances from polls-only prediction
>>80864615
>Nate Silver
wew
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/06/29/there_s_a_high_probability_nate_silver_is_wrong_again_about_donald_trump
>>80864913
Answer the question you fucking faggot.
Explain how the primary model is wrong, but Silver is right?
>>80865029
Do you not understand how polls work? They reflect how people are going to vote within a certain range with a high amount of certainty.
I'm not going to argue about the models that overfit past data and try to make predictions. If the elections were held today, polls show trump would win, so your model is kinda pointless (unless you don't believe in statistics or whatever)
>>80865711
Trump would *lose
>>80865711
Nate Silver was wrong about literally every state of the Republican Primary, he hates Trump.
>>80865711
So, what you are saying is that you won't answer my question?
>>80855947
Really? why is Trump losing in the polls?
>>80865832
Wrong. Anyone can look up the predictions for themselves.
>>80865992
I already answered it. You said "my crystal ball predicts the titanic won't sink! Prove it wrong."
>tfw no Trump like person in Germany
If Trump tried to form a party in Germany, he would have been shut down just for thinking about it.
>>80858965
>he does it for free
>1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn't A Real Candidate." Silver's website said Trump's not a real candidate because "Trump's high name recognition combined with a staggering -32 favorability made him the least-liked presidential candidate of all time," which meant, "'Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin -- or playing in the NBA Finals -- than winning the Republican nomination...'" Silver blew it.
>2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump 'Surge' Seriously." So Trump's taking off, Nate Silver comes out with two reasons why everyone should not believe it; dead wrong again.
>3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World's Greatest Troll Silver finally weighed in with this article, where he described Trump as a 'troll' candidate, who was thriving simply by virtue of the tremendous attention he could receive by insulting everybody," but he was not going to go anywhere. He had no chance to win the nomination.
>4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump's Six Stages of Doom." Obviously wrong. "He pegged Trump's odds of winning the nomination at 2%...
>5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The Nomination. ... 'Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination,' Silver said. 'It's not even clear that he's trying to do so.'
>6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump's Polls." They don't mean anything; Trump has no chance. "7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan -- Silver was quick to pounce after Trump finished second to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses," saying this is as good as it gets. He's been wrong seven times predicting the fate and fortune of Donald Trump.
>I predict the Titanic won't sink!
>Ignore that thing on the horizon!
>I can't see anything over the edge of this little boat, so the Titanic still hasn't sunk!
>>80866248
But I never said that, I asked you to prove the model that has predicted the winner since 1996 wrong. You have not even attempted to do so. You keep talking about polls but the post right above you shows Trump winning in the polls. You also seem to be under the impression that polls mean anything this far out from the election.
>>80866564
He already apologized for his pundit-like predictions, and promised not to pull numbers out of his ass in the future. The polls have always been accurate though
>>80866578
Prove it right? And no, being right a handful of times doesn't make it always right. However, the confidence of polls can be proven
>>80866856
>b-but he apologized. It's not like he'll fuck up again, I swear
They need to hire better shills. No shekel for you.
>>80858965
>Graham got more media than Santorum
Fucking kek
> Is he a Clinton plant?
Either that or hes just in it for the 'free advertising'. Hes LITERALLY the only possible republican candidate with a lower rating than Clinton.
>>80867142
Yeah man, those polling companies pay me so much to shill polls. I especially like how they're the same polling organizations that predicted Trumps win in the primary
>>80866578
>I asked you to prove the model that has predicted the winner since 1996 wrong.
>>80867257
>polling organizations that predicted Trumps win in the primary
And yet Silver got it so wrong yet you're still willing to put faith in him. Aww. Poor little shill. No more (You)s
What kind of people even vote Hillary?
I know it's feminists and stupid niggers.
And what kind of people vote Trump?
I heard he has tons of support from the Sikh communities.
>>80867526
I vote Hillary because she supports the usds
>>80857039
Lol it's a shill thread. I'm enjoying the fact that you shills come across as desperate and terrified. It must be so much emotional pain, to know inside that Trump will win, Hillary is a garbage candidate, and you're trying your hardest to defend the corrupt garbage candidate that you know will lose. The liberal tears are beautiful.
RNC and DNC hasn't even happened yet. He's been coasting so far until he gets into his debates with Clinton. Then he's going to rape her fucking ass.
Everything out of Hillary's mouth and her actions do more damage than any slam ads. And has been dominating media coverage for a year. Who needs ads when people are talking about you constantly.
>>80868538
And Trump has been dominating*
>>80855947
Why spend money when you don't need to?
She is obviously desperate otherwise she wouldn't be spending money like this to even attempt to beat him.
>>80867402
>university
>sanders
mate
come on
mate
>>80857823
If it was a general election model, then it probably would've been right if he'd won the primaries.
>>80860441
1 welfare check per vote
>>80857130
>Predicted to win at 99%
>Predicted to win at 80%
>Predicted to win at 77%
>Predicted to win at 70%
You are here
>Predicted to win at 60%
>Predicted to win at 55%
>Predicted to win at 54%
>Predicted to win at 53%
>Predicted to win at 52%
>Predicted to win at 51%
>You really think they would let Trump win?
