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I posted this earlier today, but it didn't get many replies
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You are currently reading a thread in /pol/ - Politically Incorrect

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I posted this earlier today, but it didn't get many replies because it was earlier in the morning. I'll repost because I think it's important.

Let's discuss these polls for a moment. Shills need not apply.

One general election poll has Trump down by 5, and the other has him down by 12. One of these pollsters is dead wrong. But regardless, both show Trump losing.

Trump is definitely in a rough patch in his campaign, taking heat from the comments about the judge, Paul Ryan threatening to sue him, and the media just constantly attacking him. In the face of all of this, he's losing WITHIN THE MOE in Colorado, Florida, and North Carolina. His loss in Wisconsin is outside the MOE, but that's still a much closer result than I expected.

Take it another way: Romney lost Wisconsin by 6.94% and Trump OUTPERFORMS him even though Romney had native Paul Ryan on his ticket!

All of this even before both the convention AND the debates. So please stop all this shit about Trump going to lose in a landslide.
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Nobody?
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>>78878022
No becuase your a faggot, OP
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>>78877565
Look at the polling average, not just one poll, shithead. Trump is losing everywhere by a wider margin than Romney was at this point:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html
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>>78878594
>polling average has 3 polls
>includes a poll nearly two months old
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Iowa is pretty well-educated; it'll be blue.
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>>78878594
The outlier of that result is months old. Irrelevant
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>>78877565

Just more proof that national polls mean nothing. The president is not elected by a 50% national vote.
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>>78879472
No, but if he loses 15 votes in North Carolina that's a big problem because there really isn't anywhere else to make that up.

He's already walking a tight rope with needing about as clean a sweep as can be reasonably expected in the Midwest [i.e. no miracles in Illinois or Minnesota, but pretty much everywhere else]. Unless you think he's going to flip a big time state, I'm not seeing a lot of breathing room developing in New England or the Northwest in case it doesn't go swimmingly in the Midwest/South.

Whole fucking lot is riding on Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
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>>78879205
muh corn
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>>78879877
He won't win Michigan. Pic related is his absolute best unless something big happens in the future and he wins in a massive landslide.
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On that map. If Trump wins Ohio and Michigan they tie at 269. Who would congress pick?
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>>78880226
HE WILL WIN MICHIGAN,WISCONSIN,MINNESOTA, AND MAINE!
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>>78880226
Even with all the unions, Michigan is still around 75% White -- and it's home to the worst niggers in America outside of Cincinnati. He's got a shot.

Your map looks a bit optimistic in the West.
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>>78880245
It's so unlikely that he wins Ohio and Michigan and not PA that it's almost not worth talking about. But to answer your question: I don't know. The GOP holds the house, but they hate Trump.

>>78880430
That's not my map. I'm just saying that's his max. I think MI is trending red, but now isn't the time unless Trump breaks 12% or so with the black vote.

Realistically, I say Trump wins NC, FL, OH, and PA with 273 electoral votes.
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>>78880226
I really wish Webb would be Trumps running mate to get the Virginia military vote. Hillary is ahead by 2 and is likely to make Kaine her running mate. I really hope the Trump team has a good plan to get to 270. If he doesn't think he can win Virginia, he should go all in in PA and Michigan. Even if Michigan is a long shot, he needs to make up the Virginia votes if he can't win them.
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>>78880585
Do you think the polls are overvaluing Clinton in Florida? I mean, Romney lost by less than one point to Obama, even with the unusually high black vote, and Romney doesn't have 1/4 the support Trump does in the state. I have a hard time believing he is down 8 points there.
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>>78880953
I'm trying very hard not to pick apart polls this time because I did that in 2012 and I was very disappointed when I was dead wrong. It is sort of strange that he's down by 8 in Florida in one poll but tied with Clinton in PA in another. It sounds like a poll like that could be steeped towards Clinton, but it may also be the Hispanics rallying against Trump.

That being said, the poll that came out today had Trump down by 3, and that's within the margin of error. So I think that FL and NC are easy wins for him. The question is where does he expand Romney's map, and it seems to me like the Midwest is the best place.
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>>78881204
The thing that makes me nervous is Trump could win Florida,Ohio,Iowa,Colorado and still lose the election at only 268. If Clinton makes Kaine her running mate, that hurts Trump in Virginia. and it's being generous giving him Colorado and Iowa. Lets say that Trump wins Florida and Ohio, but not Colorado and Iowa, where is Trump going to make up the extra 17? PA is a long shot. Still leans dem.Same with Wisconsin.
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Lets say Trump wins Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. He is at 259. Where does he make up the extra 10?
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>>78881459
Virginia isn't a red state at this point. It is full of people who need to be killed if the United States is to break free of globalist kike bankers.
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>>78881459
Look up 2000 VA results and compare them to 2004 results.
Kerry choosing a Edwards, a good southern boy from the area, didn't win him a single vote. I don't think the working class of VA is that easily swayed.
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>>78880825

Trump has already got the military vote
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>>78881459
I think PA is this year's wildcard. VA just seems to be getting bluer, especially with governor McDonnell getting caught with corruption charges and making everything worse. Wisconsinites seem to hate Trump, so I'm not expecting that to flip.

As of now, it seems to me like NC, FL, OH, PA is his best path to victory. If he can't win PA, his only other shot is pic related.
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>>78880377
I'm from Wisonsin and I don't believe this is going to happen.

I'm sorry my state is full of faggots and nigger-lovers.
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>>78881859
Isn't there current governor under investigation?
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I think it's a close victory and Trump wins like this, but NH is a maybe
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>>78881859
PA is much more likely to flip than IA. Which baffles me, because IA is suppose to be mostly farm country with rural whites. Are they too sheltered from the niggers and muslims to know the real problems?
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>>78881563
nevada and ???
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Why are you guys so sure about PA? They have tons of blacks and Puerto RIcans? Not to mention the Demo convention being held there, and the Dems had more primary votes.
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>>78882213
The good thing about Nevada is that Trump got 35k votes in the Caucasus and Clinton only 6k The bad part is all the blacks and Spics in vegas, and all of the illegals from California.
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>>78882027
He is, but I haven't read much into it. Maybe if he gets in trouble for it that can help Trump.

>>78882248
pic related and polls: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Pennsylvania
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>>78882248
You left out the part where Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have been blue for decades.
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>>78882248

I don't think Pennsylvania is a sure thing but I think he has the best chance out of any recent Republican. The state polls showing them almost tied this far out is good for Trump.
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>>78882445
This is why I wish Kasich would be his running mate. Would help all across the rustbelt.
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>>78882503
>blue for decades.
And? Virginia was red from 1968 to 2004 in every single election. Then Obama won it in 2008 and 2012, and now it seems to be reliably blue. States shift, and PA could potentially be a new shift.
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>>78882146
I think so. Just like how Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK are super liberal yet very white.

The whitest states are Iowa, Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire.

Two of them are swing states and two are hard blue.
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>>78879205
>Iowa is pretty well-educated
No its not, bro.
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Laugh now
Apologize later
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>>78879205
kill yourself
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>>78883025
Colorado would go red before Nevada.
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The scary thing is, that Trump had the following states in his 15 state plan to win the whitehouse. NY,California,Minnesota,Maine,Michigan,Wisconsin,Florida,PA,Ohio,Virginia

I hope really doesn't believe he can win California or NY. In every interview he is talking about winning NY. That is delusional.
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>>78882837
If North Ireland is liberal it'd be solely caused by the mass breeding catholics. theyre being infultrated by Catholic cucks, same way mexicans are liberalizing America.
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>>78883025
More like this.
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>>78883255
really REALLY hope he wins FL
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>>78883025
Going to agree with this guy>>78883148

What's the explanation for that?

>>78883216
He'll never win NY and Cali, and MN, ME, MI, and WI are a stretch.
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>>78883216
Yeah he's wasting his time in California and New York. He needs to focus on Florida and Pennsylvania instead, since he has a real chance of winning those states. Those are the 2 main tossup states that will win him the election.
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>>78877565
Hillary won, Drumpf is done. It's Romney all over again. Gonna eat me a steak with a side if right wing cuck tears after this election, AGAIN. Just give up.
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>>78882346
>The bad part is all the blacks and Spics in vegas
Do you really expect them to turn out?
>and all of the illegals from California.
Who can't vote. Whoop-de-do.
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>>78883550
No one is disagreeing that Trump has an uphill battle to with the electoral college.. But Romney doesn't even have 1/4 of the support that Trump does. Hillary is such a bad candidate that PA,MIchigan,Virginia, and to a lesser extent Wisconsin and Maine are all in play. If it we're any other Democrat, Trump wouldn't have a chance in those states. Hell. even Hillary isn't doing as well as she should in a state like Oregon. Only up 1-5 when she should be up by 20.
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Hahaha it's funny watching all the MAGA /pol/tards watch glorious leader's chances go down the fucking drain.

Going to feel good drinking conservative tears when Scalia and Thomas get replaced with liberals on the SCOTUS
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>>78884024
This is why Trump needs Webb.
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>>78883877
please keep reminding everyone about this
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>>78877565
Wall Street Journal has Trump down by just one point in their latest poll.
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This is what will happen
Refute it
>protip: you can't
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>>78884574
Sorry wrong pic
I'm a faget
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>>78884574
I agree with everything except Colorado and Ohio
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>>78884574
For starters. Clinton is going to make Kaine her running mate, and that makes it hard for Trump to win Virginia. Next, Nevada voted for Obama twice, and has lots of spics that vote against Trump for revenge. Colorado has allot spics and transplants from California. Florida and Iowa are possible though.
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>>78883877
epic!!!!1 XDDDDD +1

>>78884644
I supose that's possible but unlikely. If he manages to win NV, that means he's doing well nationwide and would likely also win OH and NH.
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>>78883877
>Trump
>conservative
Pick one and only one.
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>>78883550
The only person crying is going to be you when this entire country goes to shit in less than a decade from now thanks to you braindead liberals.
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>>78877565
The problem is its so far out from the election no one gives two shits about polls. I saved your image to show its a horse race
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>>78877565

>So please stop all this shit about Trump going to lose in a landslide.

Nothing you've posted contradicts that though?

The fact that Trump is behind in Florida and North Carolina, even if only by a little, is not a good thing. If Trump loses in either of these states he cannot win.
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key states are Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. After that he has a lot of options
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>>78886019
he can technically win without Florida if he's very lucky
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