> The best way to predict what will happen in the election: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html
Let me say something that /pol/ may find controversial: I think that Trump being a birther and going on about Mexican rapists and being "edgy anti-PC speaks his mind and the truth" and basically being a /pol/ shitposter who stumbled into a nomination is going to hurt his ultimate odds with niggers and spics and chinks. Crazy, I know.
...but I was wondering if it was at all possible to pull off a "white people take it for him anyway" scenario.
The pic related is me thinking up the worst scenario I possibly could in terms of minority voters:
> Black vote based on Obama/McCain 2008 with turnout based on 2012 (which, shockingly, turns out to be higher than 2008).
> Hispanic vote would actually be the biggest Hispanic landslide for the Democrats, with a 4-point increase in turnout. This is the "Hispanics go Trump piñata" scenario
> Similarly, record for the Asian vote, and a turnout boost
But then I assumed the absolute best scenario I could for Trump in terms of whities:
> White voter share is Reagan in '88, basically a total blow out
> Turnout rate based on white turnout in '04 (there really were "missing whites" with McCain and Romney)
And...an incredibly narrow Trump win in the popular vote, with a solid win in the electoral college. Democrats hold onto the southwest (NV, CO); but Trump basically kicks ass in the Rust Belt and midwest, winning OH, IA, PA, WI, MN, while holding onto FL/VA/NC and even picking up NH. Minnesota is extremely unlikely to break for Trump IRL, but it was also the closest on my map, so whatever.
If you really want to go all out with the RaHoWa strategy, probably looks something like this.
I don't know if anyone cares but I'm going to keep messing around with this. I'll try and think up the best Hillary map I can imagine.
>>77665299
I think if Trump wins Florida he wins the election. He has so many states to work with, even states that have been red in a while Wisconsin,Michigan,Minnesota,PA,Maine. On Top of the traditional VA,Colorado,NV,NH,Iowa. Even if he loses VA, he has so many states to substitute it with. If he wins Florida is he is going to win. If he doesn't then he is screwed.
>>77665299
if you can split it up by education, give at least half of the educated white vote to sillary. as they get older, they get closer to hillary.
>>77665557
Trump has to win every swing state, not just Florida
>>77665916
He is the way I look at it. He has NC and Ohio already. That puts him at 224. If he wins Florida he is at 253. Here are his winning combinations
Win PA
Win Michigan and Tie
Win VA and one of the following Colorado,Iowa,NH, or Nevada
Win Colorado,Iowa,NH
Win Wisconsin and one of the following,NH,Colorado,Iowa,Nevada
Or manage to win the rustbelt
If he doesn't win Florida he needs to win Rustbelt states, and some middle of the country states. He has allot of combinations to win as long as he wins Florida.
>>77666418
That's all cool and all but shillary literally only has 2 combinations, win Ohio or win Florida
>>77666418
By the way, I know Trump has an uphill battle. I'm just trying to point out winning possibilities. If Hillary doesn't get 93% of the black vote she lose VA,PA,MIchigan. I know he said he wasn't going to pick one, but he would be smart to get a black running mate. It would help his cause allot.
>>77665299
>Remove minorities
>See this
>>77666770
This is similar to what would happen if Trump picked a black running mate and prevented Hillary from getting 93% of the black vote.
Pic related is the best Clinton map I can think up. Admittedly it was kind of easy - keep the minority numbers from the above example. But then white voters don't really break for Trump meaningfully at all. The absolute best white voter count for a Democrat I could find was Bill Clinton in 1996, with 44%. Dole got 46% (this thing makes third parties tricky, but Perot got the remaining 10%). I actually bumped up Trump two percent.
I also looked at 2000 election turnout - when white America saw boring technocrat Al Gore against boring compassionate conservative George W. Bush and said "fuck these guys" and stayed home - and tossed that in as the white turnout. It's not too crazy to imagine this!
This is the "total disaster" Trump scenario. Hillary wins all the Obama 2008 states (including IN); adds in GA, TX, and AZ. This map would also do serious harm to the Republican Party as an institution.
Also, I think Trump's style not meshing very well in the mountain west could actually make things worse. Imagine if enough Utahns stay home or go Johnson or something, maybe Kansas as well, maybe even Montana...
This would be the "reload /pol/ for meltdowns" night.
Interesting.
>>77667129
>This is similar to what would happen if Trump picked a black running mate and prevented Hillary from getting 93% of the black vote.
>thinking a token running mate would give trump the black vote
because palin did great for mccains female numbers, right?
>>77667470
>Also, I think Trump's style not meshing very well in the mountain west could actually make things worse. Imagine if enough Utahns stay home or go Johnson or something, maybe Kansas as well, maybe even Montana...
Utah is literally a swing state right now in every poll that includes Johnson, Lord Romney could make Utah go blue for the first time in 50 years
>Kansas
This meme again. Kansas reelected Governor Brownback even after he raped our schools out of sufficient funding. Even counties that needed the funding the most, even those that were White and agricultural based. Kansas is Republican country.
Okay, and here's a "narrow Trump win" scenario.
In this election fan fiction in my own head:
- black voters respond to Clinton the way they did with Kerry and Gore: "eh". Turnout levels return to 2000/2004 without a black person on the ticket; as a logical result, black conservatives make up more of the voter population, and Romney's dismal 6% goes up to a not-as-bad 10%.
- Hispanic voters who were going to vote Democrat were about as turned off by Mitt Romney as they ultimately were by Donald Trump. Much like with blacks, Trump's offensive comments get a lot of outrage but don't translate to new voters for Hillary. I still have him down a little bit here.
- Asians and others stay the same as 2012
Meanwhile - even with these assumptions baked in - you still need a return to 2004 level turnout and a white voter breakdown that's better than Romney in 2012 in order to squeak out a narrow Trump win. 1 point in the popular vote, and the win is centered on the Rust Belt. PA was a Trump win by .4 points - so in this scenario everyone would be F4-ing the PA board of elections website for like a week, and there would probably be a highly contentious recount.
...and probably a shitload of missing ballots.
This is a solid thread OP, bump
>>77667768
Woman wouldn't vote for Trump just because one is on the ticket. Trump would bring over blacks with a black running mate. Blacks are leaving the Dem party, because they realize they don't care about them.
>>77668194
>Blacks are leaving the Dem party, because they realize they don't care about them.
citation needed
>>77668194
Maybe that's true about the democrats but what have the republicans shown to blacks that would make them the better option?
Ben "Uncle Tom" Carson literally changes nothing for trump
>>77668030
I tend to agree - but still, kind of amazing that polling result could even exist. I'm a dirty liberal but I kind of like Trump's bombastic style at times - but holy cow, what a terrible fit for the boring McCain-style conservatives that make up the most Republican territory.
>>77668194
>Blacks are leaving the Dem party
Er, what? This isn't in any polling I'm seeing.
>>77668245
Hell, one recent poll had Trump polling at 25% with black voters. If that happens, he's President in a landslide
>>77668338
Obama has done nothing for them. Dems make all these promises to them for votes, and once they get elected they don't live up to their promises. Trump excites black people. Black people see illegals as a threat. Voting Democrat gets them Detroit,Chicago,Flint,New Orleans. Blacks are tired of being slaves to the Democrats who never live up to their promises. Obama used his Chicago talk to get blacks to vote for him, promising better opportunities, and lower crimes rates and cleaning up the streets. Chicago is now more dangerous than ever. Blacks are turning on the Dems. Sorry. The tricks aren't going to work anymore. =)
Finally, this is my alt right fantasy map.
> Blacks realize their place, sit this one out
> Whites organize in such a way that their vote and turnout breaks for Trump in the funniest manner possible
> Asians receive a mutually agreed upon upgrade to whites, and vote appropriately
> Latinos emerge as the race enemy for whites to defeat. Despite their best efforts, are quickly crushed outside of CA and NM (Trump subsequent builds a wall around NM too, just to be safe)
Also in this map, I imagine Vermont would actually turn out red due to high number of Bernie write-ins.
>>77668501
>Hell, one recent poll had Trump polling at 25% with black voters.
from where? link it.
>>77668501
Yep. Blacks aren't buying the bs anymore. My black mom and my grandparents and family members are all turning on the Dems. The same thing is happening all around the country. Blacks aren't going to be pets to the Dems anymore. The racist Clinton will never be anywhere near the white house again. Hot Sauce. HAHAHA
>>77668719
Trump only needs 8% black vote to win.
>>77668920
>blacks are leaving the democratic party!
source please
>nothing
>there was a poll with trump at 20% black support!
source please
>nothing
fuck i hate you people
>>77668501
I don't know why I bothered but I looked up the last 6 national polls and none of them had any crosstabs. What the fuck, that's the most interesting way to look at polls.
Do you have a source?
>>77668501
First result from a quick google, just an article summarizing. Turns out that 25% poll is ancient
http://www.lifezette.com/polizette/trump-minority-vote/
SurveyUSA Poll 09/15
Blacks 25%
Hispanics 31%
Clout Poll 12/15
Blacks 40%
Hispanics 45%
Gravis Poll 5/16
Blacks 13%
Hispanics 55%
but feed 13% of the black vote into that calculator, even giving Trump 3 points better than Romney's anemic number with whites, and giving Democrats 85% of the Hispanic vote, he is President in a landslide. 300-238
>>77669086
Sorry. It's over for you progressive white closet racist liberals who thinks you can manipulate blacks for votes, and leave them in the ghetto to rot with crime and poverty while you live in your upper middle class neighborhoods. That ship as sailed. Might as well try that to the Hispanics for the next couple of decades, until they realize the same thing. Sorry. It's just not going to work anymore.
>>77668633
Ok, but that didn't my answer question
>>77669212
>samefag
I should add, if Trump manages 66% of the white vote, which I suspect is pretty much guaranteed, it's 341-197
This does not account for the EC, of course. One of the architects of NAFTA is likely to be significantly weak in the Rust belt, which is going to be crippling for her campaign.
It also doesn't account for Hillary being indicted, and in the event she isn't, Wikileaks dumping their dossier of Clinton criminal evidence. That is probably going to murder her with white voters, who tend to be more politically active and informed.
Trump's actually got a pretty easy path after the conventions.
>>77669466
People aren't "buying" the uncle tom crap anymore. Black people are realizing that they're in the same situation they were in before Obama came into office. If a black Dem can't do anything for them, no Dem can. Trump is already going to improve GOP numbers with blacks, and a black running mate would make that number go even higher. Rich upper class whites can't use blacks for their votes anymore. Black people are taking a good look at Trump.
>>77669748
Still haven't answered my question
What have republicans done for blacks that would make them the more appealing option?
I love the comments saying that Trump "has" NC and Ohio, and can win with 1 or 2 swing states.
The Clinton campaign and Priorities USA Action (a Democratic super PAC) have spent a combined $30 million on a massive ad campaign that began on Thursday. Pro-Clinton and anti-Trump states will be aired in 8 swing states, including Ohio, NC, Colorado, and Florida.
Trump could have used the last 6 weeks when he was the presumptive Republican nominee and Clinton was still locked in a battle with Sanders to air ads against Clinton. Experts say he wasted a golden opportunity.
The Democrats carried Ohio in 2008 and 2012, and NC in 2008. If Clinton and her allies keep what they're doing, they're gonna win all the swing states and the general in a landslide.
The Trump campaign has $2.4 million in the bank. The Clinton campaign is spending at least 4x that in ads only. She has more staff in Ohio alone than Trump has in all 50 states, and she got 3 million more votes in the primaries than him.
The Clinton campaign is playing its cards right, and without a miracle on Trump's part, she's headed for a landslide victory.
>>77669466
The short answer is, thinking about the GOP's chances of the black vote compared with 2012 and 2008 is crazy thinking, because those elections had a major difference from the black vote perspective, namely Barack Obama. He was going to get 95% of the black vote, period, and he did.
Hillary Clinton isn't going to do as well with black voters as Obama did. And even a 5-point bump in the black vote, along with a couple of percent more of the white vote makes Trump president. Even if he gets half what Romney got of the Hispanic vote.
This is why the DNC strategy with Trump has been to scream RACIST over and over again -- they know Trump is going to win whites big and lose Hispanics big, and they need to shave off every single point of black support they can from him.
>>77669969
>muh money
Yes, I remember when Jeb spent $150+ million and became the GOP nominee by a landslide
>>77669862
Not only freed them from slavery, but give them better economic opportunity and will clean up their neighborhoods.
>>77670065
Man. I can't believe you're even replying to that DNC shill.
>>77669969
08 and 12 were completely different cause of the nigger effect. Throw that out the window this year. As far as spending against Trump, ask how that worked out for Jeb. and lastly,
>muh 3 million more votes
she got less than she did in 08 and ran against Bernie, cmon now senpai
>>77670065
That's fair, going to be an interesting summer
>>77670241
Am I the dnc shill? I'm a registered republican in cuckifornia
>>77670324
I'm talking about the other Canadian guy. The fact that Trump barely spent any money, barley had a ground game, and still managed to get over 13 million primary votes says something. Now imagine what will happen when the GOP actually starts funding him, and he actually starts debating Clinton.
I accounted for the fact that black voter turnout will fall and lean less Democrat (no black democratic candidate) and Trump is still fucked by 3 million votes.
Ironically it seems as though Trump needs to win the hispanic vote (mainly Cubans in Florida) in order to stand a chance. Looks like Trump might be fucked, guys.
>>77670065
Jeb was killed in the polls. Clinton is destroying Trump in the polls. Big difference.
>>77669969
>Trump could have used the last 6 weeks when he was the presumptive Republican nominee and Clinton was still locked in a battle with Sanders to air ads against Clinton. Experts say he wasted a golden opportunity.
Yep, this is accurate. Keep in mind that while Mitt Romney was busy fighting off Buttcum and Spaceman, Obama ran endless ads in Ohio and elsewhere talking about Bain Capital and painting Romney as the asshole vulture capitalist who made you lose your job. The Clinton camp is looking to do the same right now; Trump literally had a month and a half to do something, anything, to define Clinton, and he even had the Republicans (including John fucking McCain) lining up behind him as the nominee. And...he didn't.
Also, Trump seems to sincerely believe that he has a chance to win New York or Maryland, which is based on his big primary wins. This is, put simply, dumb as hell. You see that jokey map I made where blacks literally sit out and whites break hard for Trump? Hillary STILL wins New York in that scenario. If he's actually spending his (limited) money there in any capacity, holy shit.
I'm not writing Trump off based on his pure ability to...be Trump, and Clinton is actually a weak candidate. Third parties could also make this interesting (no demographics tool for them, dern) and this cycle has been so weird, who knows. But most of the indications, read in a straightforward manner, is that the Clinton campaign knows what they're doing and Trump doesn't.
>>77670439
I think the cornerstone of Trump's whole strategy is to turn ad spend into a liability. Up here we learned in CURRENT YEAR MINUS ONE that ad spending doesn't seem to actually work on voters any more, and often just pisses them off. Trump seems to be the only one who gets this.
People don't like getting bombarded with bullshit political ads when they're trying to watch the game or a show. And then Trump just points out that the source of those annoying fucking ads are billionaires spending huge sums of money to influence the election.
Billionaires who expect a return on their investment.
>>77670481
You mean the polls that sample 7%-12% more registered democrats?
The general election is a different beast than the primaries, I sort of feel like it's inevitable trump takes special interest money to fund his campaign, if that happens it will be interesting to see how the voters react
>>77670439
Many GOP donors are reluctant to donate to his campaign.
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/06/clinton-negative-ads-trump/487460/?utm_source=atlfb
"Although the campaign and the RNC established a fundraising operation, several members told The Wall Street Journal they hadn’t actually done anything yet, and officials are already dampening expectations of raising even $1 billion—an eye-popping sum, to be sure, but less than either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama raised in 2012, and less than Clinton is expected to raise. Politico reported Thursday on serious tension between Trump and frustrated RNC officials. For example:
While Trump had promised Priebus that he would call two dozen top GOP donors, when RNC chief of staff Katie Walsh recently presented Trump with a list of more than 20 donors, he called only three before stopping, according to two sources familiar with the situation. It’s unclear whether he resumed the donor calls later."
The Trump campaign is cash-starved, doesn't know how to fundraise, and won't take advice to the RNC. Looks like a promising campaign to me. /s
>>77670740
I have some sympathy for Trump here, if I had to kiss Republican donor ass I'd probably lose my mind after one or two too.
>>77665299
Whites outnumber Hispanics
Whites are energized like never before
Minorities at their most energized do not turn out to vote like whites
Look at the primary turnouts
There ya go.
>>77670740
>muh money
President Jeb Bush knows what you mean
>>77670740
Probably because most in the GOP are secretly Democrats and would rather have Clinton win. That is why they were pushing for Bush and Rubio. There is literally no difference between Clinton,Bush, or Rubio. None of them actually care about America. They just want to be president. I wish the GOP would stop being so stubborn and just donate.
>implying Trump won't win NY
Upstate loves him and downstate does too. Also he could easily rig downstate if he had to.
>>77670586
Experts? The same ones who've consistently been wrong about Trump since he came onto the scene? Seriously now.
And if you're going by conventional wisdom, this is the republican's election to lose. Democrats had the white house for eight years, and traditionally, it flips.
ITT: fan fiction
>>77667129
should he pick West or Carson? My vote is on West, though I wouldn't be opposed to Carson or even Herman Cain
>>77667129
Does that mean he should just pick Carson?
