Do any of you guys actually believe Trump is going to win?
He has never been leading in the polls and he had a two month start and a unified party.
Hillary hasn't even unified her party yet and she's still winning.
Face it, I am a Trump supporter and even I know that his chances are slim.
Trump is a weak candidate and the electoral college is lopsided in the democrats favor.
>>76685310
He has a very strong chance of winning. 45% of the population will vote Republican, even if they nominated a potted plant. There is a very small number of states that are making the actual determination.
>>76685310
He will win pretty handily. You actually step outside and talk to people, they won't often say publicly, but most people secretly support Trump.
>>76686104
>most
>>76685310
I'm a Trump supporter (or more accurately an anyone-but-Hillary supporter) but I don't think he'll win. Feels bad man. Even if he actually somehow wins the vote, you can bet your ass there will be vote rigging just like there was in Austria.
Even if he somehow got the
>>76685310
>Hillary hasn't even unified her party yet and she's still winning.
This is fucking Hillary and she isn't hard to figure out, if burnie voters haven't decided by now to support shillery they aren't going to by November.
No one said Donald is going to have it easy but if he can make a deal with unions and tap to union votes in swing states that go blue then Hillary is finished
>>76685310
No, he won't win. No Republican can win. He's amusing though, and that's enough.
>>76685310
I'm a very intuitive person and I've to say that Hillary's got this in the bag. Trump presidency is too good to turn true, unfortunately.
>>76685310
>NH going Shillary
>Florida going Gary Johnson
>Shillary winning areas that got fucked by NAFTA, TPP, and other shit deals
>OP is a fucking leaf
How much money does CTR pay you? Do you also get paid by Weedman?
>>76685310
>she hasn't even unified her party
>she will continue to ostracize the bern fags
>she won't be able to banter live
>she is the fave of corruption
Top post lad.
>>76685310
Trump has won already because he has accomplished for the elites the prime reason of his candidacy. i.e. the defeat of the leftist Sanders.
>>76685310
he led in the RCP average by .2 points for like a week, and is currently trending down the polls.
The markets have his chances at 22-35% currently. those numbers can change of course.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election
>>76685310
Yes, he can win. I'm a Sanders supporter voting for Trump in PA. Trump is extremely popular in PA, and if he wins PA, he'll win Ohio and Florida. That's his path to victory.
Also, here's my prediction:
>>76686521
>0.35 has been deposited into you're account
>>76685310
Honestly speaking, this would be Trump's only path to victory. >>76687890
>>76685310
>Do any of you guys actually believe Trump is going to win?
No, he's not supposed to win. He's supposed to destroy the RNC. He'll do fine.
Hillary and the FBI will finish off the DNC, and this great nation will finally get a President worth of it again.
Vote with your Johnson motherfuckers!
>>76685310
fucking leaf
DUDE
Everyone thought that Sanders was gonna get blown out in every state but Vermont in the Democratic primary but he made it competitive. Clinton sucks at speeches and has a standoffish personality. Trump's aggressive but entertaining personality will help him in the long run
>>76685310
He can win. His best path is: NC, FL, OH, PA in that order
Right now he's losing in the polls (he was winning a few weeks ago), but things can change. He has just begun to make his case to the entire electorate
>>76687890
This is Trump's only realistic path to victory. PA is republican's fool's gold. The Philly and Pittsburgh areas are too strong to let PA turn red, plus it hasn't voted republican since 1988.
This is probably what will happen as long as Trump preforms well and doesn't have another "judge moment" prior to November. (It's unlikely)
He still loses in this scenario, though.
I predict Trump calling Hillary Clinton a bitch before November.
>>76688408
PA is still worth playing. All the Reagan-Democrats could help swing the state.
>>76688408
No way Virginia goes blue with Trump.
Virginia is the state that almost had Rubio win over Trump.
NoVa is just too much of the state now and too pro-clinton and anti-trump.
>>76688408
Philadelphia is definitely all Clinton, but the Pittsburgh area is more Trump-friendly than you think. If Western PA turns out, Trump wins.
>>76688585
Philadelphia and suburbs will always keep it Blue.
Depends entirely on whether or not he maintains his current temperament, and what happens during Hillary's email investigation. The USA Today story on his alleged refusal to pay various employees may be the nail in the coffin if he can't step up his DC game.
>>76688528
>reagan democrats
reagan democrats don't exist anymore. they vote republican now.
>>76688755
I'm talking about Virginia not Pennsylvania
>>76688766
Trump Democrats now - a.k.a. former Bernie supporters.
>>76686319
I dont think he'll stand idly by and get fucked. He'll pull some shit too
Trump is our last hope - because of this map. The demographics and culture are moving so rapidly left that Trump is the last chance of the GOP to even survive, but of course they are so castrated that they feign outrage at Trump's racism. Not trying to be dramatic, but if Trump doesn't win, it's over. There will never be another eccentric billionaire who hits hard on culture and immigration. Sure, there'll be "Trumplicans" who will run as President and promise immigration reform, but they'll never be able to get the votes. Country is turning darker and darker, demographically. So with that said, I don't expect him to win, because I think we're too far to be fixed, but I hope he does.
>>76688810
Wrong reply. Wanted to reply to >>76688528
>>76685310
NH and NC are red, probably Ohio and maybe wisconsin
>>76688850
GOP is dead either way. Trump lost them the demographics game in the long run and fractured their base.
>>76688993
I doubt Wisconsin goes for Trump.
The primaries destroyed Trump.
I am very doubtful Minnesota, Iowa, or Wisconsin go for Trump.
>>76688825
possible, but it depends on how many bernie supporters will move to trump. 10%, 20%, 30%?
we'll have to wait and see how effectively the dems unify in the next couple of weeks.
Is Iowa really going blue this year? Corn niggers, explain yourself. Same with Wisconsin. Trump lost handily there. Why would the state go red?
>>76688047
VA is more plausible than PA imo.
>>76688164
Go back to Mexico. We are going to build a wall keeping you fuckers out.
>>76685310
KYS leafnigger
>>76685310
It has been predetermined. Even those sitting at the top of the power structure cannot stop it even though they know.
A beautiful new world is about to bloom and it's everything /pol/ could have wished for but even better.
>>76689472
No. NoVa, Richmond, etc. REALLY hates Trump.
At least Pittsburgh has a sorta small chance of liking Trump.
>>76689527
Iowa is blue as fuck.
PA will probably go blue.
VA has a small chance of going red.
NH will probably be red.
>>76685310
why does everyone consider new york instant blue sure Hillary was there but so was Trump turning into something more than a shithole ghetto in the early 90's
>>76689516
Yeah? Really?
Got no Mexican roots at all, but nothing against those who do. Betting your family came over from eastern Europe last century which means you were ~300 years behind mine, but I wouldn't put you down for it if you'd just fucking assimilate!
Stop posting shit that is "set in stone". States lean a certain way, and not all of them are leaning heavily one way or another. Plenty of the leaning states, like Nevada or Pennsylvania, could easily have the tides changed.
This is poll data from the 1980 election.
It's still early. At this point, Reagan was still behind Carter.
![533e51b0dc[1].png](https://i.imgur.com/8FroGIN.png "533e51b0dc[1].png")
>>76690148
>>76685310
he'll win FL, OH, and NC. VA is a swing state. NH is possible. PA is what it might come down to
>>76690388
aren't most people in PA blue collar's that have been suffering for a while now?
>>76690302
PA is the one to win. I just gave him it for fun in this map, but right now it's probably leaning Clinton
>>76690682
PA is leaning democrat, but only just barely. It's a 1-2% difference, which is why it can easily flip, along with all the slightly red states.
Nevada is currently slightly red. Probably mostly red as well. They have been heavily against the Democrats since the Bundy Ranch shit. It's only Las Vegas that flips it, and only barely.
Remember how McCain was ahead of Obama, and then Lehman happened and Obama never looked back? Nobody knows what happens between now and November. A terror attack, a financial crisis in China or elsewhere, or some other unexpected event may well change things. Any unexpected event is likely to help Trump.
>>76688282
its too bad that running for president and being president are two different jobs
>>76691059
MAKE CRYPTO GREAT AGAIN
>>76690899
>PA is leaning democrat, but only just barely. It's a 1-2% difference,
As late as September 2008, McCain was within 2% of Obama in PA, yet Obama went on to win the state by 10%:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html
>>76685310
http://primarymodel.com/
>>76691059
MAKE CRYPTO GREAT AGAIN
>>76685310
How are you a trump supporter, you retarded cuckadian. You can't even vote, you Trudeau loving faggot
Trump will win by huge margins.
>>76691290
Because of the financial crisis, which devastated PA. It's been a close race ever since Ronald Reagan, who won the state twice in a row. Half the state is black, poor, and women, and the other half are old patriots, Revolutionary War Reenactors, and jobless blue collars.
>>76688408
Trump is tied in PA as of the last poll. Norquist had a good point, Hillary came out against fracking and that could sink her in PA
I put his chances 60/40 against. Regardless, Trump is the best chance the GOP has at winning the White House. Had anyone else been nominated, the entire Republicans would have been relying on irritated anti-Hillary protest votes to win, 2012 was going to repeat itself all over again. Now the situation has been successfully reversed, and the Democrats main base and strategy is going to be drumming up an Anti-Trump vote.
This is Trump's only bare-minimum winning scenario:
Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio are absolute must wins for him. Virginia has too many public sector workers now to go red, Nevada has too much liberal run-off from California, Colorado is dude weed country, and I have a feeling that Wisconsin and Iowa will not go red since Trump didn't win them.
>>76685310
In all honesty, no. I think he'll have more of a chance than the establishment ever predicted, but the way your average person talks about him (even my 92 year old grandma who loves Rush Limbaugh) you can tell he's unpalatable to the majority of the American electorate. Not even shillary can gather as much hate, and she's absolutely detestable. Wearing a MAGA hat will get you chased out of public establishments in a lot of places. That's not a good sign for the general election.
BUT I think a trump presidency would not be the end of the world leftists think it would be, nor would it be the anti-cuck nationalist utopia or whatever it is the alt-right thinks he'll do; you can kind of tell he would play ball with the Republican establishment and basically be the president that Romney was supposed to be (economically right, socially moderate). Romney just couldn't convince the tea partiers he was one of them and that's why he came across so flaccid and phony when he tried. Trump knows exactly how to talk to them and rile them up and would be the perfect president to talk a bunch of angry tax protesters into supporting Obamacare 2.0 and feeling like they were standing up to the man while doing it.
>>76693198
This is one of the more realistic 270 to win maps I've seen on /pol/ in a while, but why don't you see Nevada going red?
>>76685310
There's no way Nevada is going blue this cycle, unless the whole state is destroyed by a meteor or something that ridiculous. Roberta Lange ensured Clinton has zero chance in that state. That's solid Trump territory now.
