Current electoral analysis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3s17pwLNBJk
TLDR:
6 swing states matter:
CO
IA
OH
PA
NC
FL
Trump MUST WIN
PA
OH
FL
and either
CO and IA
or NC
MI and WI are longshots
NY is not in play
Based on latest available polls realclearpolitics.com
Discuss or give me arguments
I'm fairly certain Trump has OH and PA down. Rust Belt blue collars don't like Hillary. FL has a lot of hispanics, but Cubans tend to hate Democrats anyway. He's got a better shot with NC than others I'm pretty sure.
>>74231266
Biggest ? mark at this point is PA. He needs to put a lot of focus there and lock it up or he is fucked outside a WI/MI miracle
Well here's how it went the last 2 times.
Trump is fucked.
>>74231490
Hillary's shenanigans will come back to bite her in her fat ass
>>74231490
watch the video it addresses that and more
Trump can ABSOLUTELY win and likely will, but this video is giving a bit more info than
>muh trump
>cant stump the trump
>trump win landslide
>>74230954
All he has to do is win the states Romney did in 2012, and then win Ohio Florida and Pennsylvania/Michigan. No easy feat, but it can be done.
Current polls have Trump neck and neck with Clinton in those states.
It is so close I can taste it.
>>74230954
NC is likely red. No Obama means less blacks which means less democrat votes and they went red last time anyway.
>>74231634
I'm very certain that if Bernie were to run 3rd party along with Trump and Hillary, the results would be like this
>>74231746
Which is why he's going to go into full damage control mode after the convention.
Can someone explain why people are already counting VA Blue? seems open to me.
>>74231634
Flip CO and IA and give NC to trump and yeah that sounds about right
>>74231634
Terrible map even beyond the third party memeing. How Democratic do you think those states are that they could split and still beat Trump?
>>74231490
>Romney
>>74231746
Democrat states would vote for Hillary and Republican states would split the vote between Sanders and Trump, resulting in a landslide Hillary victory.
>>74231729
NC is ~22% black you might have a good point. But I think trump will get more black votes than romney because
a. no obama
b. trump
>>74231891
no polls, link if you can find I couldn't
>>74230954
>cornered by 4 blue states
>Utah is the only red state that borders you
How long till AZ and UT get overrun by Mexicans and go blue?
>>74232050
>>74231490
That's before Republicans ruled the house and senate.
Trump is going to win.
>>74232050
>says the leaf
>>74232166
>2012
No it wasn't.
>>74232154
theoretically this election...hopefully this changes
>>74231409
I live in MI and he could win here. He has a fuck ton of support and a fuck ton of black people who say "fuck dat nigga trump." Depends if blacks turn out to vote for HRC. Crazier things have happened
>>74231490
In 2012 people only voted Romney because anyone would be better than Obama. This time around people are voting Republican because they actually want Trump.
>>74232282
Did they poll U of A students or something? No way AZ goes blue this election, but o wouldn't be surprised if we did a few elections from now
>>74232247
2012 was win they won the house back. They didn't have the senate until 2014.
>>74231746
>MA
>Sanders
we voted Hillary, and if it was a 3 way race, expect the result to either be Trump or Hillary
>>74232050
sage this fucking leaf
When the Bernie Bros literally implode they will help protest vote Trump into Office.
>>74232322
well you need to get out the vote then bro because you life in a state that matters.
>>74232381
Romney did far better than Trump in the primary....
You people are just making shit up as you go, aren't you?
>>74232538
Why would they? he's literally Hitler
>>74232640
>>74232381
>>74232166
>>74232050
watch the video "people" and vague national polls dont matters
6 states do
OH
PA
CO
IA
FL
NC
unless polls change drastically those are the battleground THIS YEAR
>>74232640
>Romney did far better than Trump in the primary....
>Trump got way more votes
javascript:quote('>>74232640');
That's why Trump is going to get the most votes in GOP Primary History...despite having 16 other candidates at the start.
>>74231891
err read as VT
VA is blue, it is adressed in video or this link
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html
>>74232467
Ah, very true, my mistake.
>>74232640
Romney was against 3 other candidates nobody knew about (except Ron Paul, he lacked support) and still managed to get less votes than Trump, who was battling against 15 other candidates
>>74232779
>NC not going red
>>74232779
PA's a given, barely a percent between Obongo and Mittens last time, and the monkey actually still had the white working class behind him then.
>>74232965
not an argument since you clearly didnt watch the video...NC is likely red but polls indicate it is battleground
>>74232779
Gotta say this is dispiriting. I knew he was at a disadvantage, I didn't realize his best realistic case for winning was squeaking by just 3 extra electoral votes.
PA I think would have to be a near miracle to pull off. That's what Trump has done all season, but PA is heavily pivoted by Philadelphia.
As far as I can see, all Shillary has to pick up is 1 or 2 states, Trump has to try to run the table on 4-5. That means he'll be expending more time, money, energy...the odds are not in his favor.
Damn. I fucking hate the fact that CA gives that witch 55, loads of dems here even hate her living guts.
>>74232779
If Obongo couldn't swing the state blue with the Black vote in 2012 than Clinton sure fucking can't
>>74231409
>>74232967
polls indicate PA is his toughest battleground state next to FL check the linked image
I'm in CO and will be voting Trump. I think it will go to Clinton, though.
>>74233050
Yeah. I'm an autist /pol/ack for trump but this video breaks down the sober reality that YES he can win but its going to take more than meme magic
>>74233222
Can't wait for polls to come out of CO I think it has a strong shot to go Repub especially after Delegategate
>>74233371
Please be true...
>>74233222
Trump is very pro Le weed hopefully that can strongly appeal
>>74232912
And he struggled far more and for far longer than Romney did.
And he has proven to be far more polarizing than Romney was within the party. If it weren't for former Democrats and independents voting in the Republican primaries he wouldn't nearly have done as well.
He needs to bridge those divisions, as Ryan said, but he's been arrogant about it.
>>74233143
PA bro here, Trump has my support
>>74233512
Well duh because Romney didn't haven any real opponents; he was going to be the nominee from day 1. Trump was legit battling everyone and Rato was actually pretty good at campaigning.
>>74233143
I know my girl in Philly is voting for him
>>74232166
You sure? Because the GOP House/Senate majorities seemed to happen pretty specifically due to low turnout.
>>74230954
Why is everyone burying their heads in the sand about the Georgia polls for the last months?
GA is a swing state now. Be very fucking careful
>>74233505
>Le weed wins Coloradans
They already have their weed
>>74233932
>Georgia
>swing state
Wait what!?
>>74233932
>South voting democrat
This isn't the 60s lad.
>>74233932
you're literally either an idiot or a shill
btfo
>>74233932
If obongo couldn't swing it then why can Hillary? No reason there
>>74233992
>>74233932
>>74234047
Check the flag GA is red state lock
>>74234174
Okay, thought for a second there the world turned upside down.
>>74233992
>>74233993
See the polls
>>74234047
A so called safe state and youre proving your point showing a poll when he's barely up by 1 (UNO) point?
I swear this is Romney every again, faggots daydreaming about taking Colorado and Michigan when Georgia and Utah are in danger
Trump wins by taking OH, VA and doing the miracle in PA. He wont win FL and it wouldnt matter in that case
>>74233992
>>74233993
>>74234047
>>74234161
>They didn't check the flag
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkfTciQ_pS0
This video will cost one of the candidates the election
>>74234251
Aussies are literally upsidedown so that's understandable
>>74234274
1 poll of 500 LV (likely voter = skewed stat)
Clinton has gone on record recently defending 3rd term abortions
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/03/hillary-clinton-late-term-abortions
Utah is 65% Mormom
I know they HATE New York Trump but please explain how UT goes blue.
Again, check the flag and sage this shill/idiot
>>74232779
We'll win NM with Martinez as VP.
>>74234174
Clinton winning in Utah:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ut/utah_trump_vs_clinton-5834.html
Uno (1) punto in Georgia
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/poll-georgians-largely-undecided-about-presidential-race/265867522
>>74234330
nah, how fucking old are bill clintons rape allegations? Nobody ever gave a fuck, but there's a movie about Clarence Thomas being a shitbird in the meantime, because of sexual harassment.
>>74234274
you're suggetsing pic related
problem is the chance of him taking VA over FL seems unlikely based on polls in this thread and the OP video
>>74234641
martiznez is not VP
gingrich will be VP
>>74234743
Colorado will go blue.
Fuck so he does need FL after all
Didnt know Virginia was so lost
>>74235033
if CO goes blue he needs a WI/MI miracle
doesnt change he needs FL
>>74234918
Gingrich is redundant as VP, brings even more baggage. He has near Edwards level scumbaggery on his record. A 69 year old paired with a 73 year old. You think that'll sell?!?
Huntsman is the best VP pick, if Trump can swing it.
>>74235156
Yeah, Huntsman will really rally those conservative voters that Trump needs to unify the party...
>>74235127
Based in your map if Trump gets FL he can afford to lose CO and no WI/MI miracle needed
>>74235156
>Huntsman
Muh nigga. I made threads about him 5 years ago
>>74234918
Well, I guess he would at least calm down >>74234274 and his fears.
>>74235275
yeah should have added within your previous framework of him taking VA over FL, in that case what I said is true
Trump is going to win in a lot of blue states that no one is even considering or paying attention to and surprise a lot of people. Blue means democrat or just left of center. The democratic party has been hijacked by psychotic far left socialist globalists, and a lot of moderate democrats are sick of it.
They've pulled the pendulum way too far and it's about to swing back farther than ever. The fire rises.
>>74235373
Yeah, Im worried there arent many realistic paths without FL. Even more concerned that the upset in PA is becoming also a must instead of a ice surprise.
And, despite the lack of polls, I really doubt dude weed lmao Colorado is in play
>>74235365
The problem is the GA is a must. VP should be targeted to OH PA or FL
If Trump cannot hold supposed safe states such as GA or NC then this race is over before beginning
>>74235532
not an argument
watch the video
>>74231490
trump is the best candidate republicans have had since reagan and hillary is the worst since mondale. there is hope
>>74230954
CO, IA, PA, and OH will never go for Trump, there' just now way.
Even when compared to hilary he's down 20 points in IA, which is his best state out of those four, PA he will never get and Ohio he's down 30 points. you can't make that up in a few months
>>74235532
This is false, trump polls extremely low in every blue state, he has no chance of getting them. He's not even likely to win Indiana this year
>>74235849
>>74235849
>>74235934
sage this shill
provide an argument or get out shill
>>74235949
>>74236029
I don't even like Hillary, I believe she belongs in prison. But using outdated data and ignoring facts isn't going to help. We should keep from emotional data manipulation and focus how to actually make progress.
Also you can't sage a reply as replies don't need bumped
>>74235849
Wait until the debates start. An economic genious who wrote a best seller on verbal persuasion with an iq that makes him a literal genious versus an emotional strung out psychotic globalist feminist with a list of scandals behind her a mile long.
It's going to be a fucking bloodbath.
My only real fear at this point is after he wins the jews just have him killed in a last desperate move.
>>74236221
don't forget possible stroke victim
look at her in 08 vs today vs bernie of all people
the 3 debates...Trump will absolutely dominate
Trump is a fucking savage. He is literally going to make Hillary Clinton irrelevant. There is SO, SO, much there he can use against her. Plus, a good percentage of the the Socialist neckbeards hate Hillary more than Trump.
Man, this thread is depressing.
>>74236687
why? because life isnt
>muh trump
>muh shillary
no its politics. its fucking tough. it takes a big win in unlikely states.
thank God we have Donald Trump at the helm.
Genius
Leader
Builder
He can do it, but if you live in those states you gotta campaign
If you don't, like me, then shill trump content
>>74236687
Stop self hating you fucking disgrace.
>>74236687
It's true. You fags have memed so hard and got so far but...
>>74236221
Indeed. The people who are saying trump cant possibly win so and so states seem to be ignoring that trump has not even begun to work on destroying hillary yet. Look how easily Trump decimated all 18 of his rivals. Pretty much every single one having much less bad baggage compared to Hillary.
Once Donald starts attacking Hillary, and really exposing what kind of woman she is, she won't have a chance. Plus straight up, a lot of democrats fucking hate her. I know im in canada but even the fags who voted in weedman really hate Hillary.
>>74236779
How? CO will most likely go Democrat, if he can't take that then he needs to take WI and MIC, which is a longshot.
>>74233143
Got my mother to support him, and she's a man hater. Said he'll be good to shake things up.
I want Michigan to MAGA so fucking bad. Maybe Detroit and Flint just wont vote this time. or get the city dwellers to see how much of a boss the Don is.
>>74236895
Uh, he has more than a chance in FL, OH, PA, and NC....without even debating Hillary. He is a master debater /meme. He hasn't even got on stage with Hillary yet.
>>74236894
leaf our elections are decided by electoral college
did you even watch the video?
it comes down to 6 states
IA
OH
PA
CO
NC
FL
unless the polls dramatically change (well outside historic parameters) these are the 6 states that matter this cycle. Its different every cycle.
So yes debates and such matter but now its the chessboard of these states and how does trump take 4/6 or 5/6 of these and win when HRC only needs 2/6 or 1/6 to win
>>74233143
PA here
He has ton of support in pennsyltucky areas but Im really worried about the nogs in Philadelphia.
Again, Bernie Bros are planning a neckbeard "Revolution" at the DNC Convention after Bernie gets busted. A lot of them are independents and HATE Hillary more than Trump.
>>74237072
well keep in mind HRC promised to not forget flint during the debates:
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/nolan-finley/2016/04/19/clinton-gone-flint-forgotten/83266508/
people are noticing, this could bite her ass in the general she scored cheap easy political points then dipped when she lost the state by 1% to bernie
>>74232171
>>74232525
>>74237200
>using "leaf" as an insult
The North American Vexillological Association generally agrees that the Canadian flag is one of the best designed in the world, and if the society of flag design says that a flag is designed well, it fucking is.
>>74236687
Take heart, brother, Trump is already ahead of HRC in PA and only one point behind her in OH and FL according to Quinnipac. Just remember what happens every time Trump encounters an obstacle: he's dismissed, then ridiculed, then the moment shifts, then it's close, and then it's over and he's the only man standing. It's going to happen again.
So, Blue State Trump supporters, how does it feel that you are entirely disenfranchised and that your vote doesn't matter?
>>74237283
pic related
CO is a joke state.
>>74236469
The problem is the debates will be at some uber liberal colleges. The deck is stacked against us but I believe trump will still btfo shillary.
>>74237293
>implying the insult has to do with the quality of flag and not implying that Canadians are weak and whimsical people hence "leaf"
>>74236687
>>74236790
Trump has a 97% chance
https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/
>>74237327
I live in Chicago, which is the only reason why IL is Blue. It's kind of annoying, I guess.
>>74237327
As a blue state supporter I shill for him online and redpill my friends
>>74237327
CA here, giving 55 electoral votes to that witch is a disgrace. WTA should not apply to the general.
>>74237379
here is debate schedule
>>74237442
No one with more than 3 brain cells takes that seriously.
Reminder that bernie is going to cause a huge divide in the democratic party. He's going to be denied the nom and it's going to make half the bernouts chimpout at the convention. A good portion won't vote, vote third party, or maybe vote trump to fuck over hillary.
>>74230954
Living in FL, I want to believe that we will swing red. What decides that though is the retired vote as always and I'm not sure how they're voting.
In 2000 WI went blue by 0.22%
Trump is pushing the working class
Why isn't it in play?
>>74237327
OR here, it pisses me off that Eugene and Portland manage to control the entire state.
Can't wait to move out of this shithole.
>>74230954
>MI and WI are longshots
both had way more republican turnout than democrat turnout for their primaries. you are factually wrong.
>NY is not in play
spoken like a true moron. trump said he can flip NY easily, and given his homefield advantage and major turnout, he can make it look easy.
>PA
>OH
>FL
>red
>>74237633
I keep saying this and it's a real variable. I'm on that "Bernie Sanders Dank Meme Page" on FB as a $hill and 80% of that 400k board are more anti-hillary and anti-DNC than me.
ITT: realists and trumptards
You guys are crazy to not see that the demographics and electoral college radically favor Hillary. Some of you clearly have no clue how elections work. I recommend electoral-vote.com for some decent analysis.
>>74237743
where the fug are you moving to
will be interesting to see what happens when the state throws in the towel and declares bankruptcy
>>74237327
I hate it so much. Maryland will be forever blue because of black people in the city of Baltimore and DC suburbs. The rest of the state is red as fuck.
>>74237912
I want to believe anon
>>74237798
Are you chimping out? Did you even watch the video
MI and WI he is down 10 points. He has a lot of ground to make up there. That doesn't mean its un-doable but his obvious path is as outlined in video:
PA NC OH FL
NY is not in play AS OF RIGHT NOW
This is trump vs clinton in NY.
God bless you for being a trump supporter but you are the "not so educated" he talks about
>tfw bernie bot in florida
honestly don't know who i'll be voting for in november
>>74237943
Probably Idaho.
>>74237912
or watch the video
TLDR:
6 swing states matter:
CO
IA
OH
PA
NC
FL
Trump MUST WIN
PA
OH
FL
and either
CO and IA
or NC
MI and WI are longshots
NY is not in play
Based on latest available polls realclearpolitics.com
>>74237948
That's how IL is. Sucks man.
>>74231746
>>74231634
You're completely delusional if you think Bernie will run as a third party candidate. He will endorse Hillary Clinton. He hasn't even gone after her that hard. The guy is an establishment cuck masquerading as the people's hero.
>>74237817
those are all in play, the
>red
state is CO because dude weed
>>74237798
the problem is that most of the voters in NYC aren't from there
>>74237200
>unless the polls dramatically change (well outside historic parameters)
This is where you're using mental gymnastics. This election cycle has been the most unconventional ever, and like others have said Trump will have 6 long months to make the case against Hillary.
>>74238079
>The guy is an establishment cuck masquerading as the people's hero.
No he's just a cuck
>>74238030
Youre the same guy from the Trump general, I can tell by your typing style and the size of your pics
>>74238161
I wish. I will confess I am the OP of video tho
>>74237963
I would say that the one caveat to your analysis is that most people are still waiting to see what Trump creates as a platform, and in that respect he's totally unique in a way that polls might not reflect right now. Everyone else was a Governor or Senator with long defined records... Trump is a near total wildcard. His VP choice would have a real effect. If he comes out with detailed teams and proposals, that has the potential to swing the needle more than other candidates have done. And that at least has some chance to scramble the map a bit, as Trump has a lot of freedom to mold his positions.
Basically, I'm saying polls right now have way less predictive power in this sea change year. There are a lot of undecided.
>Shillary is former NY Senator
>NY is Trump's home state
>NY always goes blue
>live in NY
>tfw Trump doesn't even get a home state advantage in the general
>>74230954
>Michigan going blue
Good one, OP
>>74237963
>MI and WI he is down 10 points
factual primary voter turnout > whatever little "state poll" some frauds carefully selected people to "randomly" ask, moron. this is not debatable.
>but you are the "not so educated" he talks about
nice projection, you inbred moron. i'm laughing VERY loudly at you.
>tfw in the most important swing state (FL)
MUST
VOTE
TRUMP
PA here. Doing what I can to offset my libtard family's inevitable Clinton votes.
>>74237379
The deck has always been stacked against Trump and it's consistently resulted in the dealer looking worse than Trump.
>>74230954
TRUMP WILL WIN FLORIDA
>>74231490
More people like Trump than Romney.
He's already stealing democrat support as well which is what Trump had been planning.
>>74230954
YFW ISIS kills 300+ Americans in terror attacks in October.
Anti-Muslim sentiment reaches an all time fever pitch.
Nearly every state goes red.
SO much can happen between now and Nov 8.
Shillary may not even be in the race come Nov.
george bush won two elections before obama got elected
john mccain was winning in the polls at the start of 2008
remember this
>>74241032
lol nice argument
isis october surprise = landslide red
dont meme magic that shit
>>74241222
Meme magic can't be controlled, only witnessed. Your repeating digits confirmed it btw.
