Face it - Trump will be our next president. Post your map predictions
These map threads are way too distant to call.
Trump's success is based on stirring up the Media, if he goes Moderate like he says he'll fail, if he goes full southern baptist he'll also fail. He needs to find the 'speaks the truth' sweetspot.
>>73528759
I can't wait!
>>73528759
I prefer the rust belt version
>your
c'mon man, at least throw us a bone
Clinton only needs Virginia to win. Face it - Clinton will be the next president.
>>73529210
And let's not forget that Clinton is leading in all of the so called swing states.
Georgia, Missouri, and Arizona might also be in play.
>>73529389
>Georgia
I'm sorry, there's no way this is true. Even Obama couldn't win Georgia.
>>73529210
yeah but the rust belt will be in play with trump's economic policies
>>73529389
I don't think Trump'll win desu because of vVirginia but i think the polls will start to shift as the year goes on and those states you mentioned will be more solidly R. I think ohio will too (blue collars + kasich)
>>73529488
The last Georgia poll found Trump ahead of Clinton by only one percentage point. She could mobilize blacks, hispanics, and women to vote for her. She polls better with whites than Obama did.
>>73528759
What state do you think would be the last to turn blue?
>>73529675
Polls are 6 months out. Things will change and I think the establishment will come around to Trump.
>>73529675
>GE poll
>6 months
ok
>>73529800
>>73529675
>>73529389
>Polls
>Reliable
![5p43z[1].png](https://i.imgur.com/TWS5UzP.png "5p43z[1].png")
Anyone who disagrees is utterly delusional. This will be the biggest blow-out since Reagan in 1984, except it'll be the Dems who Demolish.
Most of this is based on turnouts for each candidate in their respective primary races.
>>73528759
That's probably the best-case scenario map for Trump, and it's still shitty as hell. FL, VA, OH, maybe NC could all go Dem easily and blow things up for Trump.
>>73529918
If you don't like polls, how about the Vegas odds which are heavily in Hillary's favor? These are people whose fucking job it is to make money off these odds, and they're very good at what they do.
>>73530029
UT and KS might be a little bit much, but it's more realistic than OP's map.
>>73530029
Blowout is possible, but no way in hell is the upper midwest voting blue. Not before arizona and NC. They haven't voted blue since 1968
>>73530064
Democrats always have super low turnout for primaries when compared with their general turnout.
>>73530064
You can't call a general based on the primary turnout
Also here's my map
>>73530137
hillary will probably win but closer than you'd expect. a lot of people have been saying trump'll fold for months now and they've all been wrong
>>73530256
You got WV and NJ backwards. And good fucking luck taking IL.
>>73530256
Trump NJ???
>>73530385
With Christie, hell yeah.
>>73530064
Do you really think Trump'll take PA (my home state)? Its rust belt, but there's a lot of liberals in the east
>>73530368
I think he's basing it on us having recently elected a Republican governor in 2014. I don't see it happening, though. Northerner Chicago area pieces of shit will turn out in droves.
Save this image bois
>>73530368
He'll take IL easy. He'll sweep everything but Chicago, which will be heavily divided racially.
>>73530531
I'd love for that to happen. Who would the House pick? They seem to hate both candidates
If Trump picks Kasich as VP, he'll win Ohio. He might win PA and MI too since Kasich has influence there and did relatively well.
>>73530532
As a southern IL voter, I'd like to think so, but do you have *any* data to back this up? It feels like an absolute delusion to me. There's going to be hard turnout up north for the "Hurrrr stop Trump" movement. Plus, that crooked hellhole should absolutely love Shillary.
>>73530532
IL went for Gore and Kerry. It's been solid blue since '92. I don't see it.
>>73530637
>>73530532
IL hasn't voted red in 30 years
>>73530637
Chicago fag here. We're not voting for Trump. Red Illinois = wishful thinking.
>>73530634
Kasich is so boring though. You don't think he can win Ohio with just an endorsement?
>>73528759
>Ohio
>red
>>73530637
I have the best data, which is my polls+memes-polls approach. I have a 94.3% success rate.
>>73530803
>Kasich
>>73528759
Bet on it
>>73530801
As someone who lives here, I don't know. The majority of this state is usually red except for Cleveland and sometimes Columbus. I thin Kasich being a heartbeat away from a presidency changes a lot. He is boring and I don't really care for him that much, but he'd be a smart pick.
pic of typical Illinois voters
>>73530804
Praise kek! HE wills it!
Is it possible New Jersey could go red this cycle? Christ Christie is the govenor and they love him. High approval ratings and they think he's honest. He endorsed Trump too. I think it's possible.
>>73528759
>Creating these maps before August.
for fucks sakes guys
>>73530983
Republicans are having their fucking convention in Ohio, if they lose the state then they truly are doomed.
>>73528759
AZ and TX voting for trump?
they are both nearly all mexicans.
UT voting for trump?
he lost there in a landslide. mormons think he is liberal scum.
FL voting for trump?
doubtful, since they are mostly cuban.
Southern states voting for trump?
Have you forgotten they are half black and traditionally vote democrat?
Same with Ohio and Arkansas.
Also, the republicans aren't going to let him be the nominee. Most likely they will put up Paul Ryan.
And then what is Hillary going to do in the months before the election? You can bet she will be digging up shit on him and his ex wives for negative ads.
and he just chose Chris Christie (a landwhale) to help him choose people (mobsters) to be in his cabinet.
that's not going to end well.
i hate to say it but i fear the god-emperor has jumped the shark.
>>73531078
You'd see Pennsylvania flip long before NJ ever flips.
>>73531078
Republicans get into power in blue states only when the Democrats fuck up SO BAD that it becomes necessary. And then they only stay in power long enough for the Democrats to put someone moderate up who kicks their ass.
>>73531078
>>73529528
>clinton can't win, trump has the uneducated on his side!
>>73531166
>Kasich eating KFC
This will be the map. SCREENSHOT THIS
>>73531078
Endorsements mean shit. Did Romney carry Massachusetts? Nope.
Did Paul Ryan help Romney win Wisconsin? Nope.
Did Chris Christie's endorsement help Romney in 2012? Unlikely.
Christie's approval is also at an all-time low.
>>73530029
The Great Plains states are the most heavily Republican electoral votes that exist and you have them as Democrat, and yet North Carolina (which you have Trump winning) is actually a close swing state in the real world. This is the most nonsensical projection I've ever seen.
>>73528759
If Trump did win (and I don't think he will), he'd have to keep Romney's seats, of which North Carolina is the most at risk, on the home front. He'd also have to go on the assault and take Florida, Ohio, and either Pennsylvania or both Colorado and Virginia. Colorado and Virginia were closer in 2012, but Trump's policies could play up well in Pennsylvania, so his choice which of those two avenues he goes down. No matter what, though, Ohio and especially Florida are essential.
In other words, there are really only six states that Trump needs to care about: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado. Time spent in any other state is wasted time. If, say, Georgia were to be at serious risk, that would signify that Trump is too far behind to have a chance at winning the swing states.
Do election results come out in the US at any predetermined order, on election night?
>>73531166
Agree with most but the South will not vote blue. Not since the 70s
>>73531166
you said a lot of stupid shit in this post i would've had to green text the whole thing
>>73531531
>Do election results come out in the US at any predetermined order, on election night?
I'd like to know this too. Besides the time zone things I don't think so, but some states (like Florida) tend to lag behind.
>all these people with NY going blue
Delusional
My patented analysis that's accurate 114.5% of the time proves to me that Democrats want to make America happy, while Republicans want to make America great. As D comes before R, the Democrats have the initiative, and as such will attempt to paint a smiley face across the country. My masterful 5 bajillion IQ has allowed me to predict their plan of action, and as such this will be the election results. Screencap this post I have never ever ever been wrong in my entire life, ever.
>>73528759
>Virginia
>Red
hahahahaha
>>73532064
Clinton won more people in Manhattan alone than Trump did overall during the primary.
>>73532217
Nah
>>73532217
He would have to win over every single Bernie Sanders supporter.
Top lel to that.
>>73531673
No, the results come out on a state by state basis. Whichever states finish counting first report, but the media will predict states going to a certain candidate ahead of time based on the numbers.
So you'll see smaller states called first.
>>73532181
51.16% isn't exactly a commanding majority. It's definitely feasible for the Republicans to take Virginia.
>>73532217
That's not a fair assessment, because far fewer people in NY are registered republicans, and NY had some really extreme rules in which you had to change your party designation to GOP back in IIRC september to be able to vote in the closed primary.
So there could've been hordes of independent/democrat voters who wanted to vote for trump but couldn't.
Personally I don't think Trump is turning NY blue, but I think it'll be much closer than it usually is.
>predicting polls 6 months before the General
potlel, however Hillaryfags are delusional if they think Iowa and North Carolina will be up for grabs.
>269 up
>>73530368
He'll take Illinois if he can appeal the way Rauner did. People here that actually work (and therefore, will actually be motivated enough to go to the polls) despise democrats unilaterally. We've been under the rule of a democratic sith lord for 30 years.
>>73529210
Clinton won't be a president in any scenario. If she manages to with there will be an armed uprising. When the ballot fails, a bullet helps.
Do you REALLY think that Trump can win those blank states?
How is it that so many blue states like New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Michigan have republican governers?
>>73529675
>GA
>ever going blue
Top kek m8 we have 159 counties that have been gerrymandered to perfection It's not even possible.
>>73533592
Utah? Georgia? Indiana?
Trump is not going to lose there at all
>>73528759
>>73533592
>NV
Flips cuz Casinos
>UT
It'll stay Red for fear of beaner immigration
>CO
Possible flip if Trump endorses le weed
>IA
Can be won fairly easily, and is an easier win than WI or MN
>IN
MY state. Plenty of Republicans except in Indianapolis or NWI
>OH
Kasich can help here, or can be won based on Hillary shitting on Blue Collar folks.
>VA
Lost cause
>NC
I don't see it going blue just yet
>GA
Red.
>FL
1st gen Cubans vote Republican, only their stupid bratty kids flip to Democrats.
BONUS ROUND
>PA
Coal jobs and dead steel industry
>NH
Went to Bush in '08
>>73534080
WHY IS THERE SO MUCH /dpt/ \ /pol/ CROSS-POSTING
>>73533683
Off year elections. Democrats only really vote in presidential cycles.
That and Wisconsin is a red state now. Unions demolished, right wing radio propaganda throughout, gerrymandering bordering on unconstitutional, etc.
>>73534808
So, could Wisconsin go red?
>>73534636
When you only make .50 cents a post, you gotta shill your ass off to make above minimum wage.
>>73534947
Not in a presidential year
>>73534947
this is the most realistic map to victory in my opinion thanks to Trump using NAFTA and mining as a talking point and it was posited by CNN
>>73534274
Been playing 'The Campaign Trail'. This is the best I managed to do for Trump, playing on Easy.
https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/
>>73530531
aaand its paul ryan for the win
>>73529210
You shills conveniently leave out the fact that "safe" blue states like Minnesota are swing states according to polls.
>>73536346
Not a Hill-shill, but sauce please on Minnesota.
I wanna see how close New Somalia is to flipping.
>>73534469
NH went to bush in 2000
>>73537811
Not happening. Doubs will confirm
>>73528759
bumperino
>>73539009
>mfw
>>73536346
Minnesota is only a swing state in theory. In practice it hasn't voted for a Republican since 1972.
>>73528759
Not winning colorado but winning virginia
>people still believe Clinton has a chance
lol
>>73528925
he needs to focus on working class. Shift the GOP platform away from religion, pro-life, anti-gay, etc and focus on blue collar workers. Unions have traditionally been Democrat but some might be leaning Trump already. Clinton did poorly among working class whites in the primaries. And it's easy to paint her as a puppet of the 1%
>>73528759
What is this map from?
>>73541116
270towin.com
>>73541116
http://www.270towin.com/
I changed my mind.
>>73541194
>>73541206
Thanks, lads.
Made one using only recent general election polls.
>states in light red/blue are where Clinton/Trump lead by 1-4%
>states in medium red/blue are where Clinton/Trump lead by 5-10%
>states in solid red/blue are where Clinton/Trump lead by over 10%
>mfw we're fucked right now
>mfw /pol/ genuinely thinks this is gonna be a landslide for god emperor
This election will be much different than others. These shills have no fucking clue whats gonna hit them till Trump hits 270 by 9:30 eastern time....
>>73542430
How is he trailing so bad in FL. I thought we would go red this time.
>>73543239
Latinos and liberal arts students are fucking everywhere down there, they're spreading like a cancer
>>73530954
you forgot NH
This is gonna be it. If we lose Virginia, we're fucked.
Why red NV? Because Iowa is full of crazy fucks who'd go blue just because.
>>73543412
In North Florida I guess its different. I always underestimate how different it is once you get past Orlando.
I wouldn't trust the polls. This will become fleshed out closer to Election day.
>>73531008
I live in the one area by Chicago (Dupage) that's red on the map. It's suffering in elections though.
>>73535760
i don't see MI going red despite the appeal he has there. it's just not enough.
>>73530531
This looks so possible. Damn.
>>73543412
In North Florida I guess its different. I always underestimate how different it is once you get past Orlando.
>>73530531
This would be fucking nutty, I'd much rather have this than a blowout
>>73544183
Biggest surprise for me is that Shillary is pulling it out in Utah and Arizona. You can count on Latino shills in Arizona to throw for her, but Utah is a pretty big wild card.
Reminder that Virginia will never go red because the governor just restored voting rights to felons who are mostly black
http://pilotonline.com/news/government/politics/virginia/in-virginia-the-race-is-on-to-register-felons-ahead/article_1a62aca2-cb74-541c-b242-3446b8b6cc0f.html
>>73535760
gay game anyways. no matter where i went and what answers i picked i just kept doing worse
rigged for crooked hillary
>>73530029
>Indiana
>Blue
Please stop with this meme. Just because we hate John McCain doesn't mean we'll vote for Hillary.
>>73529210
Clinton will win Virginia.
t. NoVa
>>73546163
They took it to court and he has to do it on a 1 by 1 basis
>>73528759
My guess is the same as yours if you switch Virginia and Pennsylvania
>>73530064
S lot of white working class
>>73530531
Florida blue tho, lol a man just killed his brother for a cheeseburger here we aint about that commie shit
>>73529210
>Clinton only needs Virginia to win.
This. Blacks will come out to vote for her the same way they did for Obama. This race was over before it started.
>>73528759
im not even kidding this seems to be one of the best most accurate maps
>>73547344
>MS Paint
I'm fucking dying
What do you all think about Romney's flirtation with a third party bid?
>>73530029
>increasingly nervous man
YUGE loss for clinton
>>73530137
Vegas operates under fear/greed like the stock market
Except there's no insider trading with politics, it's organic and fear/greed controls 100% of the bettors
Remember when Rubio had a better chance of winning the nom than Donald even when he was only polling 15% and hadn't won a state? Yes, Vegas is very good at predicting
>>73548808
I can agree with all of this except for the pineappleniggers
Those cunts always vote demoshits because as I said they're niggers and the non-pineappleniggers are not strong enough
>>73532095
Underrated post
fight me faggots
>>73528759
Florida is obviously the big if here. I believe it will go to the Democrats based on the statistics from the last two elections.
[2016]
Party Demographics:
11,446,540 Registered Voters
40% D
36% R
20% I
[2012]
Primaries:
General (72% RV Turnout):
50.01% D (won)
49.13% R
[2008]
General (75% RV Turnout):
50.91% D (won)
48.10% R
It's been close both times, but Florida is becoming less white and more POC (excuse the Tumblr jargon) as well as more left leaning. It's important to remember that while conservatives and alt-right vote will be out in force to Make America Great Again and because #NeverHillary, the left, especially the Berncucks and Latinos, will also be out in force for #Nevertrump They hate Hillary, but they hate Trump even more.
Keep in mind that a large chunk of the Republican vote in Florida is religious old fuckers, who are more likely to abstain than vote for Shillary or Trump (not God-fearing like good boy Rato).
It's not looking so hot for Trump in Florida, guys. Maybe you can make the change, but I'm not sure it's going to be enough.
>>73535760
>Unfortunately, Hillary got you on certain points during the debate
U fockin wot m8
Trump's success in the primary is mostly from how he fucking ROASTED everyone.
Trump: "Crooked Hillary, how did you hide all of Bill's mistresses?"
Hillary: "SEXIST!"
>>73549523
Ignore the "primaries." Was gonna include that Republicans had more than the Dems in '08 and '12 was discarded on the D side. This didn't change the general outcomes and I don't think it's relevant. R voters always come out overwhelmingly for mid-terms and primaries but they still lose to D voters who only seem to think in terms of who becomes president and then complain when they lose the house and senate since they sat inside watching Anderson Cooper while devoted blue collar types actually made a difference.
>>73549523
here is the primary vote turnout in Florida for 2016
if conservatives unite, trump will dominate hillary
>>73549813
Or independents/Bernouts flip to Trump.
If Trump becomes president I'm moving to Canada
>>73534080
>ever going blue
You do know it took until Perdue to elect a Republican governor? That Georgia was blue not 20 years ago?
People who actually know what they're talking about (read, not you) have projected we'd turn purple as early as 2020. That's what happens when you import leftist transplants and niggers by the truckload.
>>73550001
Good riddance :^)
>>73549523
>thinking shilldog will have the same turnout as black jesus.
>>73549813
I understand, but it's been a well documented occurrence in this country that R voters outnumber D voters during primaries and caucuses and then lose (albeit very closely) their state to the Dems. As I stated earlier, R's are far more conscious of elections outside of the General and vote accordingly. The statistics support this overwhelmingly.
>>73549898
I'd wager that the body of people who would switch from Bern to Trump are the incredibly small minority who only like Bernie because he's "different" in the same way that Trump is. From my experience, people who support Bernie do so out of their leftist ideologies. Also, it's been shown that registering as independent is generally a symbolic gesture and that most "independents" vote straight-ticket and lean far to one side of the other.
Here's an article that speaks to this phenomenon.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/166763/record-high-americans-identify-independents.aspx
I wish Gallup did more state-specific polls so we could gauge Florida's likely outcome. This article does describe the recent increase in Independents as being from Tea Party types leaving the Republican party in droves. The Libertarians in the Tea Party won't vote for the Lion, but the far-right Tea Partiers certainly will. It's definitely a variable to consider, but there's not enough information specific to Florida in regards to the composition of voters who ID as Independent to make a solid prediction.
>>73537811
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_clinton-5591.html
Polls are a few months old, but
>Trump only 2% behind Clinton
JUST
>>73550728
If you're a liberal pussy who hates Trump, a Latino who thinks Trump is a racist who wants to deport you and everyone you love, or a good boy who wants more money for dem programs and sees lots of Trump 2016 bumper stickers next to Confederate ones on the trucks that fill up Florida, you're not going to sit on your ass on election day.
Don't underestimate how much people hate him. Doesn't matter if their reasoning can't hold water, the amount of revulsion a large amount of the country feels towards the God Emperor is undeniable.
>>73543239
It's just the mid-March fall in Trump's poll numbers (which he's closing), he was leading before.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html
>>73550168
That was just the hangover from the huge party switches that occured in the country, and particularly south, during the later half of the 20th Century. Most old "Dixie-crats", who were btw completely different from Democrats today, are either dead from old age or came to their senses a long time ago.
>>73540945
This, Romney would have won in 2012 if he could have shut up about how much he hated poor people. With Trump the Republicans can freely run on an anti-free trade anti-outsourcing message.
>>73531251
>educated votes are worth more than uneducated votes
The hallowed Dindu vote disproves that.
>>73550948
>sample size
Not sure that's a great predictor famalam.
>>73530531
>NV
>red
Not happening.
t. las vegas resident
>>73544474
/MI/ here. Our entire state government is overwhelmingly Republican.
>>73534808
>Wisconsin is a red state now
Kekkity kek, what? Do you even live here?
>>73528759
Does someone who knows a lot about elections have a good map of the biggest possible landslide Trump could achieve?
>>73543995
In such a scenario where Trump's turnout is high engouh to win Ohio and Virginia I'm guessing he could pull Michigan or Pennsylvania too.
Worst possible scenario for the dems
>>73551781
Worst possible scenario for the republicans
>>73551616
I don't really think anyone with any real understanding of American voter behavior is saying Trump could achieve a landslide. A close victory, while not terrible likely, is certainly possible, but I don't think there's any chance of a landslide election victory for Trump.
>>73528759
can someone explain why New York is always blue
for fuck's sake it's his home state
>>73542430
>fucking Alabama could swing towards Hilllary
Holy shit.
>>73535050
15 Posts an hour to make $7.50
That's some shit
>>73551914
Cities vote Democrat
New York City is a big fucking city,
>>73551914
POOR PEOPLE
>>73552183
Yeah to be fair .50 cents was pretty liberal :^)
>>73529210
PA could swing
>>73530803
I live in Ohio and have never met a Hillary supporter. Only Bernie, Cruz, Kasich, and Trump. I don't think they exist.
Trump's got this easily.
>>73547560
what?
>>73543995
That's the most realistic Trump win, but I don't trust Florida or Virginia.
>>73530256
>New Jersey red
>Az blue
ayyyyy !!
>>73552647
this
>>73552581
>I'm a white straight male millennial and I have never met a Hillary supporter
not a suprise
>>73552647
>california
>trump
lol? california hasnt voted republican in like 30 years.
>>73531166
>Arizona 60% white
>35% Hispanic
>half of those Hispanics vote Republican
>all of the whites vote republican
are you fucking retarded??
It will be a close one.
>>73533368
>>73530531
stop this is freaking me out
if it goes to a tie then the establishment will vote for the establishment hack
Hill
then we will have civil war.
>>73552647
>cali
>red
kys
>>73552647
???
Prove me wrong.
Pro-tip: You can't.
>>73541542
what happens if this happens
My prediction
>>73553572
Who the fuck is Jill Stein?
>>73553654
>Michigan
>Red
>Wisconsin
>Red
LOL!
My prediction
>>73553690
>>73553572
>says the guy who thinks Johnson and Stein will win 7 states.
>>73549014
Go put your life's savings on The Donald then anon, I'm sure it'll pay off handsomely for you.
>>73553819
>Early April
Nigga we know, damn.
>>73553801
Two wrongs dont make a right ok
>>73551951
not a fucking chance
>>73542430
dude he hasnt even started on CROOKED HILLARY yet. Everyone thought he had no chance to beat Jeb! but look how that turned out.
>Making general elections predictions
>Before the debates
Do you niggas know the power of the debates? Reagan was below or tied with his opponent before the debates. When the debates hit, he literally sky rocketed. The debates also are what effected FDR and JFK elections.
>>73553661
https://mobile.twitter.com/drjillstein/status/692862156774113281
http://www.theroot.com/articles/politics/2016/01/think_green_jill_stein_on_abusive_political_relationships_restorative_justice.html
Reperations. That's all you need to know about Jill Stein and the Green Party. This isnt even including the anti vax stuff
>>73553197
And? Trump is going to be the republican nominee, it'll happen.
>>73532371
He's one me over. Unless Sanders pulls anything off, our only alternative is Hillary. I used to be for lolbertarians. Your typical Rondroid. We all know where that went. Now I kinda despise Lolbertarians. They are leftist-dem-fag-enablers.
If we have to choose between Trump and Clinton, I will choose Trump. Not Clinton.
>>73554223
you are me.
>>73550213
Oh god, please let Trump win. They need to go. Being a former Bern-victim, the left is making the Trump election package more and more attractive.
>>73554471
>>73550213
>go to canadian emabsy to emmigrate
>"oh hey there! now when you come over to Canada you need to pay 50% of your income to taxes eh'?"
they wont go anywhere.
>>73550213
Oh My god please elect Trump. Please get them out!
>>73553875
>>73553572
OH MY GOD RON PAUL HAS A SHOT I HAVE TO STOP ROMNEY.
Mitt Romney over performed his national numbers in florida with 40% of the state's hispanic vote and still lost it. Trump will be lucky to get even 20% so there goes Florida. There are a slew of states that Obama won in 08 and lost in 12 and Hillary is going to play offense in all of them. Trump is down among women by 20%, and only up among white men by a few points. He is down double digits in every minority group imaginable. There's no conceivable path to 270 electoral votes.
>>73549420
I agree, although I think Trump could pull NH and maybe WI
>>73528759
>Trump will be our next president.
He absolutely will not.
>>73555255
I don't think Florida's conservative hispanics are as big an issue as the ones in the southwest. His #1 issue is with women, and his best path to victory is the rust belt, as the southwest might not hold from Mexican turnout.
>>73555819
you absolutely will kys
