If Trump wins Florida (Rick Scott supports him) and Ohio (he got more votes losing the state than Hillary did winning it), and can pick up Pennsylvania and Michigan by running on trade, outsourcing, and industry, he can win the election.
If Trump does this, he can lose Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and even Utah (Mormons don't like him), and still win the election. Basically, he can forego the Southwest except for Arizona and still win, making the non-Cuban Hispanic vote irrelevant.
Trump has a clear path to victory through just four states.
>Utah
>blue
you know that cubans aren't latino, right?
cubans are conservative, their views don't align with hispanics/latino
>>73133005
>Utah blue
>Michigan red
>Pennsylvania red
0/10 shit map
>>73133181
My point is that he doesn't need it. He could do better than this, but it shows that by winning only the states mentioned, he can win the presidency.
>>73133005
>Utah
>blue
fuck off with this meme, it was one poll in a newspaper
>>73133422
>What is a realignment?
Again, I'm trying to show that if he runs hard on jobs, outsourcing, and trade, and wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, he can win the election even losing almost every other swing state.
>>73133257
That's exactly why I included Cubans in another category and have Trump winning Florida.
>>73133487
Is everyone on /pol/ fucking illiterate?
Read the fucking post.
the reality is that nobody knows what trump is going to win, he's too tricky
>>73133422
>>>Pennsylvania red
why do people keep meme arrowing this?
everyone from PA has been telling you dumbfucks since october that it's going to happen, PA CLOSED republican primary matched the democrat primary in turnout, over 100k democrats changed to republican just to vote in the primary. Early polls already show Trump slightly ahead in PA
>>73133257
Cuban here can confirm. Rubio winning dade surprised me really; guess he had lots of cucks bused in for him.
>>73133881
Yeah nah, the millions of nigger apes and liberal cuckolds in Philly and Pittsburgh have guaranteed PA will remain democrat for decades to come.
>>73135841
>>Yeah nah, the millions of nigger apes a
PA is 83% white
>>73136002
And half of these whites are women/libcucks. Niggers push the scale towards democrat.
>>73133881
>Early polls already show Trump slightly ahead in PA
...What?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
>>73133005
>If Trump wins Florida (Rick Scott supports him) a
Bad news for you, senpai. Even Florida Cubans don't like Trump:
>Donald Trump is -29 (33 fav/62 unfav) with 50% of the electorate having a very unfavorable view of him.
>Amongst Hispanics, who will make up ~14% of the general electorate in Florida, Trump is -77 (10/87), and no, that is not a typo.
>Trump is also underwater with Cubans by 60% (17/77).
> In the ballot scenarios, Secretary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 13% (49-36) and is comfortably leading him amongst NMP’s (+17%), Females (+22%), Hispanics (+43%) and every other demographic crosstab except whites, where Trump leads Clinton by 8%. Within his own party, Trump loses 15% of Republicans surveyed to Clinton.
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/florida-poll-hillary-clinton-easily-beats-ted-cruz-or-donald-trump/2275571
>>73136410
Trump carries twice as many blacks as any other Republican candidate - upwards of 20-25%. It's a whole new ballgame now
He'll get Utah.
>>73133005
>Rick Scott supports him
This does not mean shit here. People in Florida hate Rick Scott. Trump should definitely do his best to stay away from him.
>>73137583
SHAME ON YOU RICK SCOTT
>>73137248
Even if this is true, it is not going to last once Obama start campaigning for Hillary and reminding Blacks about Trump's Birther stunt and BTFO Trump on a daily basis. You're nuts if you think Blacks will side with Trump over Obama.
>>73133005
Utah the most republican state in the country voting for lying hillary
0/10
>>73138757
She beat him there by 3 in a poll a month ago.
>>73133005
I live in Florida and fully support him. Just wish other college students did but then again they are all poor fags looking for handouts.
>>73133422
>white blue collar workers voting for Hillary
top lel
Trump is going to campaign in the Rust Belt everyday till election
>>73138633
I cant see obama going out of his way for hillary he hates her as much as we do
>>73143310
Trump is a personal enemy of Obama's because of the Birther thing. Trump is screwed once Obama goes on the attack.
>>73143412
It was Clinton that started the Birther thing, not Donald.
As much as asshole Obama is I doubt he wants anything to do with Hilary.
Also Obama's approval rating is shit, I don't think anybody takes him seriously at this point.
>>73133257
most cubans vote republican after kennedy fucked them over on the bay of pigs
>>73145594
>It was Clinton that started the Birther thing, not Donald
Except Obama himself doesn't believe that, no matter how much Trumptards try to push it.
>>73145594
>Also Obama's approval rating is shit, I don't think anybody takes him seriously at this point.
It's not, and he's wildly popular among Democrats, which is what matters for the election.
>>73133005
> doesn't need Latinos
> If trump wins Florida
>>73138757
crooked*
Because apparently no latinos live in OH, PA, or MI?
80+% of them hate Trump. When even a small minority splits with a margin that huge, it has a big impact.
Trump is going to lose. Probably in a landslide.
>>73133005
>Trump doesn't need Latinos
Trump absolutely needs MORE undecided/moderate women and minorities voters behind him to WIN the general.
He will not win while being branded a sexist and a racist every second for the next 6 months.
Fortunately, there's a way to nullify that.
Trump/Martinez 2016
>>73148385
tfw OP is a retard.
>>73142233
And then he'll lose Texas and Florida.
>>73152259
She said she wouldn't accept VP, now stop appearing in every single thread. I know it's you because there is literally no way more than one person would get excited enough about a diversity quota pick to make OC for it.
>>73142233
Rust Belt alone will not get him elected.
Trump needs Florida, Arizona and Colorado. ALL states with big Latino populations.
can trump really win PA?
>>73138757
MORMONS fucking hate Trump. They will not vote for him. He got BTFO in Utah by a fucking Cuban just weeks ago. kek
people don't realize this burgeoning Hispanic bloc is concentrated in CA and TX, the two least contestable states in the Union
the media is VASTLY overstating their importance, and hispanics themselves are full of it when they prattle on about their electoral prowess
>>73138633
I'm black
Fuck Obama
>>73152756
>no funny tabs
>>73133820
Well, he definitely WON'T win Cali, NY, Oregon, Washington and Mass. We KNOW that.
Trump better fucking pray he wins Florida. If he doesn't he will automatically lose.
>>73152933
didn't feel to have crap like "how to unrape your sister", "gay sex with hats" or "can you get aids from blowjob" in my search history
>>73152928
I'm hispanic
Fuck Obama
>>73152756
It depends how well Hillary can convert Bernie supporters to her side. It's not looking good for her so far considering Bernie is still in the race.
>>73152612
>Brit
Go back to sucking off your Muslim master, you fucking piece of shit.
>>73152259
you stupid fucking faggots saying he should pick a woman/minority VP just dont get it do you?
If he does, everyone will think (because there's literally no other reason to nominate someone inferior to a white man) that he's doing it because of their handicap.
He's should, and he is going to pick the whitest most chauvinistic dude he can, because that's what we need, and that's what america is crying out for. Most people can see that this whole game of trying to say "we're all equal" is complete bullshit and has failed us miserably.
If people are going to call him racist, he's going to own it and do what he knows is best. Where the fuck have you idiots been the last 10 months?
>>73145594
>Obama's approval rating is shit
Gallup recently polled Obama's approval rating at 53%, that's higher than Reagan at this point in his presidency. Its true, google it.
>>73133726
its impossible for utah to be blue.
why are you making that assumption.
>>73153064
>It depends how well Hillary can convert Bernie supporters to her side
top kek
The second Bernie drops out of the race (inevitable), ALL of the Berniefags will immediately jump on the Hitlary wagon.
Every. Last. Fucking. One.
>>73152628
>arizona
>not automatically red no matter what
dont fucking kid yourself
>>73152817
This. Hispanics only matter in Florida.
Trump's best strategy is not to minority pander, but flip some of the rust belt by getting more white vote. Romney actually came really close in Pennsylvania and Virginia in 2012.
>>73133005
There is a chance both NJ and DE will go for him. I have a feeling minorities in Newark and Wilmington won't turn out in force like they usually do. Besides, quite a few black men actually like Trump because he acts... Well, masculine.
t. Live in NJ, work in DE, supervise a bunch of Black people.
>>73133257
Very true. My dad's a dumbfuck and likes to lump us all into one because he drank the Silicon Valley kool-aid. Decent Cubans are conservative though.
t. Cuban
>>73153082
>country
>Insert ebin meme because I'm butthurt, you piece of shit
Nobody wants your spic governor as VP, you autist. She's not doing it.
>>73153256
yeah... not all of them but enough, esp. considering she could probably win without any of them if republican turnout is low enough in college-educated white areas like NorVa and the Philly burbs.
>>73133005
Dude a huge part of America is Latino/Hispanic.
President Trump will bring prosperity to every American in a way we've never seen before.
We ALL need to be on-board!!!!!
>>73133005
NJ will go red
>>73133005
>the people that affect America's immigration policy are immigrants
People actually think this is a good thing.
>Michigan
>Florida
>Ohio
>Pennsylvania
>red
>>73153098
You are too fucking stupid to even argue with..
You're just a sad stupid fat ugly racist piece of shit who would vote for Hitler if he were alive.
>>73153312
>PA Obama 52 Romney 47
>VA Obama 51 Romney 47
thats not close, FL was close, 5 percentage points is halfway to BTFO territory.
>>73153516
Yea and last ime I checked illegals couldn't vote
>>73153260
Bullshit. It's a battleground state, you dumb fuck.
Especially with Latinos out for Trump's blood.
>>73153168
He's not making that assumption colossal retard, he's merely pointing out that It's not necessary for Utah to go red for Trump to win - Utah can go blue all it wants, It won't matter when this election will be decided by the Rust belt and Florida, just like always
>>73153741
>using Romney as a benchmark
>>73153134
What's your point? Reagan was dealing with the Iran-Contra scandal in his second term and it hurt his approval ratings.
>>73153774
> he actually believe this
Those of us who thought dead people couldn't vote back in 2012 were proven wrong desu
>>73153516
There are over 40 million LEGAL Latinos of voting age in America, you dumb fuck.
40 million voters who can keep Trump OUT of office unless he starts mending his relations with the Latino community.
>>73153741
5 points is completely doable especially with Trump getting so much blue collar support. Neither of those states have monolithic voting blocks.
>>73153790
Arizona is safely red. They vote republican by about +10.
>>73153915
Most of those are in California and Texas.
>>73133005
Wisconsin will be Red
>>73153312
>actually came really close
Yeah, well elections don't work like hand grenades, genius.
And unless Trump goes after women and minority voters he will get BTFO.
>>73152928
No you aren't.
>>73153256
From what I've heard, on radio and other news sources, some young Bernie supports (aka his support) will switch over to Trump if he doesn't win, because he's "anti establishment".
>>73153435
How's Muhammad's cock taste, you shitbag?
>>73154085
Obama isn't running so the black turnout will definitely be down which is why he managed to win Virginia. It was red for Bush. Pennsylvania is mostly white by far (88%); minorities don't matter.
>>73154269
>literally shilling for a subhuman bean person to be a leader of his country
>hurr durr muhammed
I'm not even British, but I'm enjoying this. Keep going.
>>73133005
>Utah
>voting Hillary Clinton
>>73153688
It's actually possible I was just calculating it based on primary turnout and 2012 election results, it's very much possible.
>>73133653
>even losing almost every other swing state.
But Utah isn't a swing state you absolute fucking moron. I live here, I should fucking know. Utah likes Bernie Sanders but he's not getting the nom. There's no way in fucking hell Hillary Clinton is getting more than a handful of votes here.
>>73153806
So then why the FUCK make Utah democrat instead of one of the states that could actually go democrat? Fucking fucktard.
>>73153917
He certainly could gain 5 points on Romney by turning out blue collar whites in droves, but he could also lose 5 more by getting white collar voters to stay home. Right now I'd say the latter is more likely than the former. Blue collars whites aren't a majority and aren't uniformly republican and don't usually vote in large numbers. More with vote with the excitement around Trump but as a strategy to flip PA and VA its dubious, especially if its at the cost of hemorrhaging support with minorities women and the college educated
>>73153851
>What's your point?
simply that Obama is historically popular for a modern president, and very popular among moderates, and him going for Trump's throat will be pretty effective.
its possible, its very possible we need a kasich endorsment and i think OHIO is very much fucking possible
>>73154256
the news about trump taking money from donors is probably going to stop that from happening.
>>73153064
>It depends how well Hillary can convert Bernie supporters to her side. It's not looking good for her so far
Democrats are much more united now than they were in 2008:
>Sanders's supporters have made a lot of noise about going "Bernie or bust," but a poll out from CNN on Wednesday finds they prefer Clinton to Trump by an 86-to-10 margin.
>That's about the same ratio of Clinton supporters who voted for John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008
>And it's still early: As we move to the general election, Democrats are even more likely to swing behind their nominee.
>The CNN poll found less reason to believe Republicans would unify around their nominee. In it, only 70 percent of Republicans who backed another candidate said they would support Trump, while 24 percent of them said they wouldn't.
>>73135841
BUILD WALL
>>73154870
Trump has energized the base and has lots of enthusiastic support. These aren't bible thumping states; it's not like a lot of butthurt conservatives will sit out. "Women" and "college educated" is mostly a meme. Republicans will never win single women and its useless to worry about it. However, married women will vote with their husbands and I guarantee that Trump will win the men vote big, so it won't matter. Trump swept the north east and the college educated republicans will all get behind him; it's not a big deal. Minorities in the rust belt are mostly irrelevant besides blacks which may actually vote in record numbers for Trump (polls suggest that at least).
>>73153256
>Every. Last. Fucking. One.
Wow you sound pretty confident considering Hillary is the embodiment of nearly everything that Bernie has been preaching against. Every Bernie supporter that converts to Hillary is a hypocrite.
She is Wall Street and the Military Industrial Complex.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC_dSYn2gtQ
>>73137583
I can confirm this.
The only reason Scott didn't lose the gubernatorial election 2014 is because he was running against a retard who's switched his party affiliation 300 times within the last decade and a lolbertarian.
>>73153851
Obama fucked up big time with ISIS and ameritards still love him
>>73155257
>Trump swept the north east
You fucking autist, against Hillary, Trump is facing utter annihilation in the Northeast. Why speak when you are so fucking stupid.
>>73154710
Romney pretty much scrapped the barrel of white male votes in the rust belt. He lost big time because hispanics broke 70/30 for Obama and women broke 60/40.
Trump is set to lose latinos 80/20 and women 70/30. He will do worse than Romney.
He doesn't even have Romney's baseline white vote because he will lose some moderate Republicans to Hillary.
I'm going to enjoy reading pol after election day. Will be sweet.
>>73155471
You completely missed my point. It was in the response to the idea that college educated republicans won't support Trump.
he's not losing utah
>>73133881
Last election, republicans ran on the hope that changing voting laws to disallow "certain people" from voting would allow them to win Pennsylvania. That was the their one hope of winning that state; cheating.
You really think Trump has a chance of winning it? His one shot is if Clinton is quoted as saying "Fuck Pennsylvania".
"Hispanics" are garbage and we need to start actively murdering them in every area of the country.
t. grandfather came from Spain
>>73155553
>he will lose some moderate Republicans to Hillary
We have to wait and see, right now none of this means shit, probably around july it would be wise to then start predicting things.
They haven't even 1 v 1 debated yet. I hate my race desu, especially mexicans fucking retards.
Though i don't hate myself, let me make that clear before some shill starts.
But yes, trump will have to worry about about the dumb mexicunts in arizona and texas. I would say FL is fine, then just focus on the rust belt.
>>73155553
Hispanics are overrated as a voting block. Look at where they live. The uncertainty is mainly Nevada (may go blue or red) and Florida. Those are the only places where they matter.
>>73155738
You mean making people show ID like in literally every other country in the world?
That's what you mean, isn't it.
>>73155601
mormons are pro immigration and all go to mexico on mission trips
>>73155553
>republicans
>voting hillary when the entire election theme is "fuck hillary"
>>73155871
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuOT1bRYdK8
>>73155741
Hello spain brother.
Don't forget about the nu cuck males and the niggers, they will also try to screw him over. If trump is serious though he'll still win because all he needs to do is expose Hillary.
But then again, american population still might be THAT retarded.
>>73155917
>nominate a true conservative that can beat Hillary!
>or else I'll vote for Hillary!
>>73154567
>subhuman bean person
Jesus, even for a Brit who sucks off Muslims for a living, you are one sick and sad fucking excuse for a mouth breather, aren't you?
Kill yourself.
Or better yet, get your head cut off by your ISIS slave master.
>>73152756
No. Primary turnout doesnt correlate to GE wins
>>73155751
Hide and watch dumbass. If party leaders like Bush and Paul Ryan keep giving Trump the cold shoulder he is fucked.
I mean, he is already fucked no matter what. But even more fucked bc of that.
>>73155986
Peeling off a small handful of New England and Mid-Atlantic states would do a lot to give Trump some breathing room.
>>73155738
>His one shot is if Clinton is quoted as saying "Fuck Pennsylvania".
most Pennsylvanian would heartily agree with her
signed, Harrisburg
>>73156090
>Bush and Paul Ryan
>liked by Republican voters
wew
>>73156090
>If party leaders like Bush
Stopped reading there.
>>73155788
>I would say FL is fine
You haven't looked at the polls, have you?
>Donald Trump is -29 (33 fav/62 unfav) with 50% of the electorate having a very unfavorable view of him.
>Amongst Hispanics, who will make up ~14% of the general electorate in Florida, Trump is -77 (10/87), and no, that is not a typo.
>Trump is also underwater with Cubans by 60% (17/77).
> In the ballot scenarios, Secretary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 13% (49-36) and is comfortably leading him amongst NMP’s (+17%), Females (+22%), Hispanics (+43%) and every other demographic crosstab except whites, where Trump leads Clinton by 8%. Within his own party, Trump loses 15% of Republicans surveyed to Clinton.
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/florida-poll-hillary-clinton-easily-beats-ted-cruz-or-donald-trump/2275571
>>73155871
Also I just voted for the first time in a new precinct and they didn't ask for ID. I think it got overturned or summin
>>73156090
What you're saying is too retarded even by /pol standards for you to not be a shill.
>>73133005
What sucks is that there's no way he's going to win the presidency. Believe me, I would love it as much as anyone else here would. But most experts are projecting that it will be an embarrassing defeat.
>>73156155
Hahhaa I actually didn't think about that, Pennsylvanians love it when you tell them that they and their state are trash.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jMhoGUiIkk
>>73155860
Colorado, too. It's a swing state.
>>73156204
If republican voters don't like Paul Ryan then who in the fuck do they even like? They had to pressgang him into taking a speakership job he didn't want because he was the only person that enough people didn't hate.
>>73156090
Party leaders denouncing him only revs up his message and base shill.
>>73156228
>Polls in May
And polls showed cruz winning Indiana and California months prior, look how the tables were turned shill. How much does that hillary shilling pay anyway? Is it worth being a slave?
>>73156357
right, the same "experts" who insisted for months Trump would never be the nominee. They have such a solid track record, we'd do well to listen to their wisdom
>>73152756
A good portion of Bernie people in PA might actually go Red. Notice the vast majority of those green areas in your map with the red areas of this map.
There's a lot of Trump/Right people and influence in the green counties already. Will it be enough to overturn Philly's influence? Maybe.
>>73156228
Florida is weird. That poll you cited has a tiny sample size, so I wouldn't put much weight into it. There's some other ones that are very favourable towards Hillar though. Florida is certainly winnable though. Cubans aren't Mexicans; they are a different demographic.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html
>>73156503
I'm thinking Colorado is going blue. I'd be very surprised if it ends up red.
>>73156533
>who in the fuck do they even like?
Trump
>>73156590
>And polls showed cruz winning Indiana and California months prior, look how the tables were turned
You sure are dumb. Trump was winning polls in CA as early as last year:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html#polls
Every poll but one also showed Trump winning Indiana:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/in/indiana_republican_presidential_primary-5786.html#polls
>>73156657
>Cubans aren't Mexicans; they are a different demographic.
And Cubans hate Trump too, which just demonstrates how stupid Trump's comments were, that they even alienated a normally reliable Republican base.
>>73135841
Philly will go blue... but Pittsburgh will go red this year.
>>73133181
>>73133422
>>73138757
>>73153168
>>73154649
>>73154804
>>73155601
Utahn here. Trumps personality and behavior goes completely against the grain of Mormon culture.
Most people from Utah probably think he's a disgusting person, even if they're too polite to say it.
Utah is also unique in that it doesn't always toe the republican party line. Especially on issues like immigration.
>>73133005
Youre all fucking stupid
>>73156926
My Cuban Doctor loves Trump.
>>73156926
Is that why he won them?
>>73157006
He didn't Rubio did.
>>73156926
Unfavorability isn't as important as the media makes it seem. Opinions can change and much of Trump's immigration stance has nothing to do with Cubans.
>>73153380
>>73133257
Can confirm, Floridabro here. Worked with Cubans many times and its hilarious how they look down on other Mestizos, probably the best of all the Spanish rape babies. Conservative as fuck too.
I don't get this "hispanics hate Trump" meme, I think a lot of it is corrupt polling. Every single Hispanic person I have known would prefer not to be ruled by a woman, especially when the alternative is a badass who doesn't take any shit.
>>73156954
>64% for McCain
Blue Utah is not going to happen even if Mormons are butthurt over Trump.
>>73153688
Now that the Kasich meme is finally over, Trump WILL win Ohio.
t. Ohioan
>>73156657
Love I Colorado and I can confirm that it is probably going red. People here are center left for the most part. Unless I'm underestimating Trump (wouldn't be the first time) and he pulls out some Jedi level political moves, it should go blue by 2-3% of the vote. The Democratic senator (Bennet, I think) will probably retain the seat since the Republican race has been chaotic as fuck.
>>73157082
>Unfavorability isn't as important as the media makes it seem. Opinions can change and much of Trump's immigration stance has nothing to do with Cubans.
You're being delusional. Opinions can change when you still don't know much about a candidate, but everyone already knows about Trump and Clinton, including the scandals from the 1990s that the teenagers here think are slamdunks but barely dented Hillary.
A sample size of 604 is perfectly fine for a statewide poll too. Many of the state polls for the primaries had similar sample sizes.
>>73143310
Isn't that a violation of the Hatch Act, at some point?
>>73146578
>Believing the phony approval ratings numbers which are coincidentally trending up even when he's doing the most damage now and been through like a dozen scandals.
all of you are posting shit ones atleast be accurate
>>73157239
The margin of error is literally plus or minus 5% on that poll. People are very wishy washy and can change; most people don't vote based on policy.
>>73156845
You would be dumb if you thought polls don't fluctuate as time passes.
And i guess those polls that I saw weren't real, but hey if you wanna keep shilling because you have some vendetta or you depend on this then go ahead and be a good little dog.
>>73156414
No, fuck you. Keystone state is best state.
t. York County
>>73157239
>Many of the state polls for the primaries
Oh and primaries have lower turnouts than the general election, so smaller sample sizes are okay. Not for the general though.
>>73157350
>The margin of error is literally plus or minus 5% on that poll.
Which is fine, because Clinton beats Trump by 13% in the poll, well over the MoE.
Are you Trumpfags seriously this retarded? How does a candidate attract so many mentally handicapped people?
>>73133005
It would be amazing if Trump could pull out NY
>>73152817
George W Bush got crushed in every category in the 2000 election.... Latino, Black, Women, etc etc.... he only won the conservative vote.... and that's all he needed.
>>73152259
Why do politics have to resort to tokenism?
>>73157475
General election polls don't mean shit... they don't work the way primary polls work. Primary polls are accurate, general election polls are never even close to being accurate.
>Trump only need to capture 5% more of the white vote than voted for mormon man and he wins by 112 electoral votes
>>73155414
Quite a few Bernie People I know are planning on supporting Gary Johnson, because they are retarded
>>73153256
>>73158001
They've been accurate for every general election in the 21st century. The denial from Trumpfags is hilarious.
>>73156008
Wow the butthurt in this post is real
>>73156926
>Cubans hate Trump too
This is bullshit because every single Cuban knows about Castro, and what a fucking mess he made.
Cubans like business, and so does Trump. Anyone who thinks otherwise isn't a Cuban or was raised by wolves.
>>73157316
I laughed
>>73159275
Go to sleep
>>73154920
lol you leaf you don't know these states. -CO, +UT, -MN +IN, +WV, probably -NH but i could see it changing to red this time. Probably -IA but I could see it changing to red maybe, but you should add in WY, MT, and the dakotas.
>>73159283
>I don't like what the polls and the data say, so I'll make up some bullshit anecdotes instead
>/pol/ being delusional and ignoring reality once again
Why I am not surprised
>muh PA will go red (it won't)
>muh polls don't matter (they do)
Kill yourselves retards
>>73159624
>staying ITT for 4 hours just to respond with made-up garbage
Congratulations, you have autism.
>>73155738
"certain people." you mean FUCKING ILLEGALS. EVERY STATE should have mandatory voter ID requirements. You should have to prove that you are a citizen of the country in order to vote. You call that cheating???
>>73159917
>i don't like it, so it must not be real
Top delusion. KEK
>>73159976
>You should have to prove that you are a citizen of the country in order to vote.
You do. It's called voter registration, you tard.
It's funny how people here think we haven't heard this before, just with different names. Also, Trump has the highest favourability amongst all remaining candidates amongst latinos in Florida (hillary scores close to ten points lower, and Bernie is out of the picture entirely), but that's just inconvenient factoids, I suppose.
>>73133005
I'm a trump fan but this map is shit.
>flipping Michigan
Extremely unlikely
>flipping Pennsylvania
Again it can be done but not likely
>Utah blue
>>73152949
Don't underestimate NY
>>73157316
That makes my head hurt
>>73160124
>be dirty illegal
>go to voting location
>say "I'm John Smith."
>receive voting materials
>vote for Shillary because of muh gibs
>>73160182
Trump path to victory requires for the same turnouts as 2012 and for a single percentage to change:
5 percentual points more whites vote for him. Should blacks reduce their turnout by 10 percentual points (what's likely to happen, considering non-obama elections), the number goes down to 3.
Try it out yourself
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
It get's worse if Trump gets the 10-15% of black voters polls are showing. And so forth.
With 2012 polling data, Democrats win. With the current demographic and polling data, Republicans wins.
Granted, all of this is a bunch of baloney for at least another two months. Until then, all of this is useless speculation, if previous elections are anything to go by.
>>73160458
>With the current demographic and polling data, Republicans wins.
Not even close.
>>73133005
Pa Red rofl yeah ok
>>73133881
everyone from PA'
i bet ur one of those wood dweellers in central pa
>>73160664
>implying NC, VA, FL, OH will be blue
wew lad nice shilling. how many shekels did this (you) get you?
not to mention you ignored his final and most important point
"Granted, all of this is a bunch of baloney for at least another two months. Until then, all of this is useless speculation"
>>73160784
Don't shoot the messenger. That's what the electoral map looks like RIGHT NOW, regardless of what that other tard claims.
>>73160664
Deny it all you want. Trump is scoring high enough with whites to get the necessary 65% of white votes to win the election. If he gets the 10% of the black votes, it becomes inevitable. If He gets the projected 25%, it's done. Due to demographics distribution, he wins the electoral college.
And that assumes republican turn out remains the same, while primaries show a far greater turnout for republicans than democrat. Again, scream what you wish, polling data can easily be interpreted for a 320-218 win for trump.
But, again, all current polling is useless for long term predictions based upon them. If you believe any of the projections of winners, Trump is the winner in 5 out of 7 models which have predicted every election but 2 to 3 numbers.
Does this means he'll win? No, but that doesn't matter.
>>73160156
>Also, Trump has the highest favourability amongst all remaining candidates amongst latinos in Florida (hillary scores close to ten points lower, and Bernie is out of the picture entirely),
>a bunch of bullshit I just made up on the spot
>>73160784
VA will almost certainly be blue. FL is likely blue. OH and NC have a good chance to be blue, but will be more competitive. Hillary can lose both OH and NC and even FL and still win the election. If Trump loses all of those, he's fucked.
>>73161023
no THIS is an actual map. you cant add flip states for one or the other at this point or you're just being dishonest.
>>73161356
>VA will almost certainly be blue.
absolutely wrong. thats 2012 projections.
NC is more likely to be blue this election than VA.
VA had a massive flip in voters from democrat to republican.
> FL is likely blue
this is also bullshit. FL is a flip that can easily go either way.
> If Trump loses all of those, he's fucked.
and hillary can lose PA and get fucked.
>>73161142
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article75064787.html
Hey, believe what you must, all the demographic numbers are out there.
Even that article is trying to spin this into a complete loss for Trump boy there, but the facts there are consistent: Trump, despite being seen unfavourably, is seen more favourably than the other candidates.
>>73161359
It's the map based on current polling, you tard.
>lists PA as a swing state
>Calls ME dishonest
PA hasn't gone red since 88. It hasn't swung since 92. For all intents and purposes, it is a BLUE STATE in presidential politics until proven otherwise.
>>73161687
The article says the exact opposite. Do they not teach you how to read in Panama?
>>73152995
>How to unrape your sister
holy shit that got my sides good
>>73157316
Holy shit you're retarded
>>73161839
>It's the map based on current polling, you tard
CURRENT polling is going to be off this early. you need atleast another 2-3 months
the map i gave is far more accurate in that regard. it shows the states that are pretty much guaranteed and then states which may possibly flip. its not mine. and its not pro trump in any way.
>>73161651
Again, with the disclosure all of this is essentially number hectoring at this stage, Trump needs three things to win:
1.) Keep the turnout for whites at the same number or higher than they are, and then get 5% more of them to vote for him. Even if every other demographic has 10% points higher turnout, if he gets to 65% with whites, he wins.
2.) Currently, between 10-15% of blacks are going or willing to vote for him. If he can manage to keep those numbers to around 12%, his white lead only needs to increase by 3%. Granted, this assumes the turnout remains the same for this election than it did the last one. Assuming a pre-obama turnout, it could lower right down to 2%
3.) Appeal to the working class Democrats. The 25% of republicans might vote number is widely repeated amongst leftist and shillary supporters, but similar or higher numbers are noticed amongst democrats, with something around 20-30% of democrats, mostly blue dogs and workers, would defect and vote trump. That number seems to be solidifying on the 20-25% range as it goes along, so let's stick with 20%. Remember that 5% of whites and 15% of blacks I was talking about? This is where it's won or loss. If Trump can get the more center leaning democrats to believe he won't install a theocracy or try to round up all gays, his neccesary increases from romney are there.
I'll leave to you how realistic that truly is.
>>73161891
They did. Which is why I read this:
>Thirty-seven percent of respondents supported Trump, a number that is still higher than the 31 percent who backed Clinton
>>73160664
you big dummy
>>73162594
assuming that he maintains the same voter turnout he's already leading her.
but thats an assumption that can easily change over the next 6 months.
>>73162460
>the map i gave is far more accurate in that regard
No, it's not.
By the way, the guy i was responding to was talking about CURRENT polling, not the future. Learn to read.
>>73162927
Primary turnout is not relevant in any way for the general election
>>73162927
Which is why I call all this in this thread number hectoring and why I keep telling people we need to wait 3 months before any hard data begins to arrive.
While Shillary goons are happily claiming victory already, a bit of logic and demographics shows their certainties are, to put it simply, part of a misplaced conceit. Trump has a good simple strategy to destroy hilary in the electoral college, with quite a few situations not even requiring he have the vote majority.
>>73163209
>Trump has a good simple strategy to destroy hilary in the electoral college
Trump can't even secure party delegates, so there's no way he'll be outmanuevering anyone in the electoral college. In fact Trump may even be the kind of candidate who leads electors to vote against the results of the election in their state just to keep him out of the white house.
>>73162966
>No, it's not
kek nice argument.
>>73163039
>Primary turnout is not relevant in any way for the general election
yes it is. while its not a major factor when you have record numbers of party members switiching and not showing up to vote it shows the lack of faith in the parties nominees.
republicans had low turnouts in both 08 and 12.
>>73163420
I am sure that argument worked for Ted Cruz just fine.
>>73163527
To be fair, it's a conditional effect.
>>73163420
>hillary shilling: the post
trump can secure party delegates. thats why hes over a 1,000 and he's the nominee.
>so there's no way he'll be outmanuevering anyone in the electoral college
>i dont want it to be true so its not
>>73163527
No, it's simply not. Primary electorates and general electorates are two very different things. He may get his 12 million primary votes, but he's heading for an epic landslide in the general election because he will never get the support he needs to compete. The primaries and general election are on two entirely different levels in terms of the kind of support it takes to win. He will need to multiply his primary votes5 times at least to even come close.
>>73133005
can't we just nuke the big shitties in california
>>73152756
There will be 719,955 more people voting for Trump in November.
Trump will bring Ron Paul into the cabinet, solidifying his position as the anti-establishment candidate. Neoconservatives will be purged from the party and go Democrat. Disenfranchised Bernie-people will see how Hillary Clinton assassinated Bernie's chances and vote for Trump out of spite against Hillary.
This ideological mass migration will chance the face of both parties. The Democratic Party will be the party of Wall Street and the special interest groups. The Republican Party will be the party of three wings: Nationalism, Libertarianism, and Socialism, all under one party banner. Instead of capitalism versus socialism, it will be globalism versus nationalism. Just as before it was federalism versus anti-federalism, gold versus silver, centralized finance versus decentralized, etc.
>>73165073
i fuggin hope you're right
>>73161123
>pic related
>>73163689
>hillary shilling: the post
>>73165073
Ron Paul is cancer. Normies think of his supporters in the same way as they do Bernouts.
>>73160233
>still voted for the shit stain that is Cuomo by 14 points during a midterm year
it's not going red
>>73167008
And he ran against a Trump-like candidate in 2010 (Carl Paladino) and Republicans lost hard.
New Yorkers are better off moving somewhere else and making sure he wins there.
>>73133005
Trump is a loud Yankee, born and based out of NY. I can see him swinging a few New England states.
>strategically, who is his VP?
I thought Chris Christie at first to pick upi NJ, but he isn't exactly loved.
>>73157316
I wonder what would have to happen for that map to actually be true. Would have to be some crazy shit.
Could he really win Michigan ?
