This the only possible path. Florida and Ohio are must-wins.
>>73032537
Increasely nervous neckbeards
>>73032537
Are you sure NY won't vote for Trump?
It is his fucking home state after all.
>>73032537
Michigan you fucking retard. Almost any state that has to deal with niggers will go to the Donald.
>>73032597
It depends on how much he pivots. If he stays crazy, then no. If he starts talking money and drops the racist identity politics act (sorry /pol/) then he might have a chance there, but I wouldn't bank on getting New York either way.
>>73032960
Hasn't been red since 88..
>>73033044
>drops the racist identity politics act
He never did that.
It's the MSM who is calling him "literally hitler".
Doesn't matter what he does/says, people will still say he's an ebil waysis
>>73032591
Don't worry Paco, he won't actually build the wall. But the factories are going to come back..
>>73033044
>racist identity politics act
wew lad
Trump is down 13 points in Florida right now lmao
it's over guys
>>73033192
No, but all the shit with the muslim ban, the wall, black entitlement, all of that populist claptrap, that'll all vanish after the convention. That's just to whip idiots into a frenzy. Now he's got a clear path, he'll start talking about money again.
>>73033343
>muslim ban
Most people agree. Especially "minorities" such as blacks, latinos, and asians.
>the wall
Not racist.
>black entitlement
What?
> populist claptrap
So appealing to the will of the people in a democratic republic is bad?
>>73033558
> So appealing to the will of the people in a democratic republic is bad?
Nations ruled by demagogues are bad.
Are you really surprised by this? Don't we all sort of know that the pre-convention frenzy is different than the general? Dems swing left, Repubs swing right, then they both swing center for the general.
He's smart, he knows that he just needs to be the craziest looking person on the stage to get the right wing pickup-with-bumper-sticker crowd to push him through the door, so he gives them what they want. Now he doesn't need them, he'll focus on the people he needs, which is anybody who cares about money.
>>73032537
Virginia is a fantasy for you cucks.
>>73032537
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are all possible flips.
>>73033981
They HATE Hillary. The whole south does.
>>73034046
Not Wisconsin. New Hampshire has a good chance to flip.
>>73034046
I feel Iowa is a possible flip as well.
>>73034321
Maybe, but 6 points, who cares.
Can we all just agree that historical references are out the window?
There is no accurate method to predict how anything will fall now that meme magic is in play.
Watch as some crazy shit happens like Trump wins CA in the general but loses TX.
>>73033558
This, the muslim ban got him on the map as a huge player.
>>73034384
It's gonna be pretty fucking close.
>>73034384
When it's going to be won by a dozen of so points, 6 matters
>>73034615
I wish he would come out in favor of weed, he'd pick up CO in a second then.
>>73034592
Dude, Minnesota is bluer than california.
They elected young Bernie Sanders as govenor and are experiencing an ecnomic boom during his tenure.
It's going to be Hillary by 25 points in new sweden.
He doesn't have the demographics to win - whites aren't enough, and he'll lose middle-aged and older white women to Hillary (who happen to be the largest voting bloc).
Romeny won close to 62% of white voters in 2012.
All Hillary will need to do is repeat him making menstruation jokes and talking about his penis.
>>73034711
Trump is in favor of medical marijuana.
People just don't ask him the question much. and it's not a big part of his message.
>>73032537
I would bet literally any amount of money that this year's electoral map will be (at a bare minimum) as blue as 2012.
i.e. No state that was blue in 2012 will flip red, but some that were red in in 2012 might flip blue (NC, AZ, GA, MO).
>>73034711
He's sorta painted himself into a corner, there. The most he can do is say he wants states to decide for themselves and that he'd aupport, or at least not oppose rolling back federal regulations or allowing medical research
>>73034821
Right up until Trump brings up the whole Monica ordeal, and how Hillary tried to ruin her life. Then he'll say shes a cheating/lying enabler for Bill Clinton.
Trumps getting PA. Trust me, I know things.
>>73034821
You give Clinton way too much credit and like everybody else is still underestimating Trump's abilities.
The only way Clinton will win is because of armies of blacks and mexicans that are scared of Trump that the Dems will push to show up in November. That's it.
Trump has 6 months to tear Clinton down and increase her unfavorables.
>>73034998
Trump was accused of rape and/or sexual abuse by his ex-wife.
>>73034910
This would absolutely be the case, if we weren't dealing with a political madman. I think we're going to see some crazy shit. He's not trying to build a political career - he's trying to win, and that's it.
So, he can burn all of his right wing credibility and STILL pick up every single midwestern/southern state simply because of how much they hate Hillary Clinton. By focusing on a few key issues, he could easily flip a few of those states. It's going to be a really interesting next few months.
>>73035096
Who then withdrew the accusation and called him a great man.
>>73034910
>No state that was blue in 2012 will flip red, but some that were red in in 2012 might flip blue
Based on what?
>>73034910
>No state that was blue in 2012 will flip red
pure delusion
>there are people who don't think PA is a battleground
lmao
Y'all niggas still think Trump is Romney, Trump reinvented the game baby
>>73034998
>Right up until Trump brings up the whole Monica ordeal, and how Hillary tried to ruin her life. Then he'll say shes a cheating/lying enabler for Bill Clinton.
She's faced that criticism for the past two decades: hasn't stopped her getting overwhelmingly positive female demographic support in the primaries. African Americans are voting for her by larger margins than they did for Obama.
I just don't Trump getting the demographics he needs to actually win. WIth all visible minorities swing dem (Hispanics loath the man), how does he win?
Mathematically white men are simply not enough to sway an election. Keep in mind too, half of his own party are going to be actively campaigning against him: he's going to be fighting a two front war. AND the fact that the more radical rhetoric that's helping win the primaries isn't going to work in the more moderate general electorate.
It's going to be a bloodbath against the GOP in November.
>>73034910
>Iowa
>voting for Clinton
is iowa really a blue state?
>>73035178
Based on years of voting patterns and demographics (and shifts thereof).
>>73035168
Nice. Conjecture based on literally no measurable evidence whatsoever.
>>73035199
Which ones, and what demographics suggest they will?
>>73033900
>all populist candidates are demagogues
Wew lad, just finish that first year of Poli Sci?
>>73035199
Kill yourself Jamal.
>>73035311
Iowa was red only once from 1992 onward (2004).
>>73035319
>>73035319
>Nice. Conjecture based on literally no measurable evidence whatsoever.
Eh, suck a dick, Nate Silver. Just watch what happens.
>>73035319
>Based on years of voting patterns and demographics (and shifts thereof).
Demographics? You realize the portion of the white vote is SHRINKING: and that Clinton overwhelmingly has the support of all visible minority groups.
>>73032597
Look at how many republicans voted in the primary and then look at the democrats. It's not even close
>>73035429
Thanks for admitting you have nothing but your retarded emotions to back up what you're claiming. Die in a fire.
>>73033044
>drops the racist identity politics act (sorry /pol/)
$0.25 USD has been deposited into your bank account
>>73035439
That's the point... Did you seriously not fucking understand that?
>>73035498
Means nothing at all. The party with more primary turnout has lost the general election half the time and won half the time since 1976.
>>73035319
>Based on years of voting patterns and demographics (and shifts thereof).
What the fuck are you talking about lad? The only relevant demographic shifts this election besides Cubans in Florida are how many blacks turn out, and how many whites turning out.
If Trump loses, doesn't that mean the day of the rope will happen sooner?
>>73032537
Nah Anon, you're almost Nate Silver tier stupid (sorry). You're not accounting for the landslide factor in Trump's winning personality vs. Hillary's psychopathy.
>>73035528
Oh sorry, here's my chart of what's going to happen.
Nobody knows what's going to happen. We're all just sharing opinions. So are you. You jackass.
>>73034500
>Watch as some crazy shit happens like Trump wins CA in the general but loses TX.
Well I wouldn't go that far, but I agree with you on this:
>Can we all just agree that historical references are out the window?
>>73034821
A fucking leaf pretending that this election will play by the rules of 1996-2012, and that we haven't entered a new era of political campaigns.
2016 is going to be up there with 1980, 1960, or 1912.
Game changers.
Since Clinton v. Dole we've basically had the same map and basically even the same party platforms.
Trump is the biggest shift in the republican platform, assuming he can lead the party into it, since Reagan's 1980 campaign where he went Christian tax-cut warrior.
Trump is a nationalist and protectionist. This forced Hillary to admit that the democrats are internationalist corporitists.
Think about it, how can the whole foods fair trade crowd rally behind someone who will be forced to campaign against "fair trade", simply because trump will steer the conversation on trade to how foreign workers are exploited.
Being the opposite of trump will contain poison pill positions, and she has to take an opposing dichotomous stance.
>>73035713
I want this to happen just to watch how Europe reacts. Plus Russian superfriendship.
>>73032960
Michigan always goes blue in the general, its a union thing.
>>73035829
California is never going red, they gave illegals the ability to vote last year.
>>73035844
good post
>>73035844
Exactly!
Tuesday was the nail in the coffin for pretend-Jesus Freak neoconservatives. If he beats Hilary, it is the death knell for neoliberalism as a whole, and we enter into a new era of geopolitics, for better or worse. Happenings, in polspeak.
Man, this is fun year.
>>73035844
>2016 is going to be up there with 1980, 1960, or 1912.
You forgot the based 1800 election anon
>>73034769
RCP has Trump down by only 2% in MN (though the polls are months old).
>>73035661
You're a fucking retard. Northern Virginia (DC suburbs) have seen a huge population boom, comprised mainly of liberals and people with college degrees. It's how they ended up voting for Obama twice, having a Democratic governor and having both Senators be Democrats.
Cubans in Florida have shifted to the left as the younger generation starts to outnumber and outvote the older generation. Not to mention the population of retirees from the Northeast continues to grow.
Oh, and the overall national electorate gets less white every election.
>>73033279
Florida's going to a tough one for Trump, particularly in the Tampa region.
>Florida lukewarm to businessman politicians because of current governor (more of a concern for independents who couldn't participate in primaries)
>major Tampa Bay newspaper has been heavily opposing Trump for months (and to head off "lol newspapers" there are plenty of newspaper-reading retirees in that area)
>proposed Trump Tower in downtown Tampa a decade ago was a total wash and under investigation for fraud
Anyone I talk to that has real-world experience or actual interest in politics seems to swing Trump over Hillary. But there are a lot of bluepilled youth and MSM-addled elderly that will vote Hillary just to spite Trump.
>people ITT literally think that it won't be anything but an exact repeat of 2008 (Trump loses by 10 points) or 2012 (Trump loses by 6 to 8 points).
>>73035714
Your opinions have no concrete evidence backing them up you dense fucking nigger.
>>73032537
Hey, fuck you. PA and NJ are fair game this time. A bunch of my friends think Clintin is a lying smelly cunt.
>>73035092
>the only way the dems keep winning is because the do a better job at motivating a full 40% of the population
No... really?
the last two elections vote turnout has only been 70%, with college grads and postgrads voting st much higher rates.
If trump can energise the highschool grads and highschool dropouts who turn out to vote at far lower rates in general but are actually very numerous then significant changes could happen.
His only shot is to have high enough energy that he gets crazy turnouts.
Trump has essentially re-aligned the parties to be Nationalist vs Globalist or Political elite v People that hate political elite, there is NO historical reference for this.
>>73036132
No, I can guarantee one thing, trump will either win by 6 college votes or less, or lose the whole shebang in a massive pornstar butthole sized blow-out.
If he loses, it will be a big loss, and trigglypuffs across the nation will be trying to run salt in our wounds for a decade.
If he wins, make sure you've got a loaded gun, though. There gone be riots and not enough rooftop Koreans to protect us all.
>>73032537
Colorado-fag voting for Trump
>>73036137
Cool! :)
LOL DRUMPFAGS BTFO
>>73035319
>t. increasingly nervous Nate Silver
I think a lot of people don't even consider or overlook the two biggest factors in motivating the moderates/independents (biggest voting bloc) which are:
Economy and national security.
Trump has both down in spades.
>>73036066
>Northern Virginia (DC suburbs) have seen a huge population boom, comprised mainly of liberals and people with college degrees.
No shit, Virginia was always blue, I never argued that.
t. Georgetown
>Cubans in Florida have shifted to the left as the younger generation starts to outnumber and outvote the older generation
Which is why I said that that shift matters you autist.
>Oh, and the overall national electorate gets less white every election.
Depends on who turns out to vote. Turnout has always been more important than ethnicity you goddamn faggot.
>>73036649
>>73036364
Infact no sorry the voter turnout has only been 57.5 % in 2012 and 62% in 2008
This is the most important graph. It shows the untapped potential that trump could tap into.
The fact that trump has received the most votes ever of any GOP candidate even before primaries in California and other states, and the fact that we have been receiving reports throughout this season that state republican primaries have seen votes cast increase by 40% and other huge %s compared with 2012 is hopeful evidence that he might be able to energise those millions of voters who never normally turnout.
He needs to keep making believe that this matters
That he is on their side
That he will make this country on their side again
Keep being high energy
>>73036450
>If he loses, it will be a big loss, and trigglypuffs across the nation will be trying to run salt in our wounds for a decade.
>If he wins, make sure you've got a loaded gun, though. There gone be riots and not enough rooftop Koreans to protect us all.
Actually both will happen if he loses. All this Soros/Obama "uprisings" will intensify under Clinton while she targets anyone connected to Trump to seek her revenge. Guns for self-protection will also be outlawed by the time the first of her SCOTUS picks are seated. There are always cases in the hopper ready to be fast-tracked through Obama's network of Federal Court and Appeals Court judges sympathetic to the cause.
If Trump wins there is no predicting what will happen. We can only predict outcomes of the continuation of Democrat rule.
>>73036649
>"Măi, turcule" (You, Turk) or "a fi turc" (to be a Turk) is an expression used to address or to refer to a person who fails to comprehend, is ignorant, stubborn or narrow-minded
>>73036862
>We can only predict outcomes of the continuation of Democrat rule.
And no matter what any shills, Trump or otherwise say, this is really what it boils down to.
>>73034592
New Mexico and Colorado are guaranteed blue?
>>73036890
A fitting expression for you not comprehending my sarcasm.
Oh for fuck sakes. Honestly, why is nobody mentioning how retarded politics have gotten that your two choices are Trump and Hillary? Democracy made a fascist out of me. It's crazy to me that people will not concede their views no matter what evidence you might have. I used to believe in the wisdom of the mass, but honestly we're just a bunch of fucking animals who'll believe whatever makes us comfortable. I guess you always gotta have a Nixon every once in a while.
>>73035922
No they didn't, the non-citizen licenses specify that the individual can't vote.
>>73037152
Essentially yes. New Mexico eternally, Colorado definitely unless there's an Old Testament-tier happening
>>73033213
he actually will build the wall
>>73037245
>I used to believe in the wisdom of the mass
Wake up leaf. The masses are group think idiots that lack anything remotely resembling wisdom. Human nature hasn't changed at all since the beginning of recorded history.
> Honestly, why is nobody mentioning how retarded politics have gotten that your two choices are Trump and Hillary?
Well you just did, and I couldn't agree more. the lesser of two evils is a horrible spot to be in as a voter.
>>73034384
6 means a 12 point swing, which is decent
>>73037277
Why did internet media lie to me anon? ;__;
>>73036862
Yeah, man, but I mean an immediate category 5 chimp out.
Chicago and LA on fire, Obama on live tv saying he's disappointed with the process while govenors call in the national guard.
We're talking 1960s style 3-day long insanity with dozens dead.
If you aren't armed on nov. 7, you'll be hiding in your closet wishing you were and gun sales will reach new recorda that holiday season.
If Clinton wins it'll be your standard cat. 2 chimpout, as if the Lakers win the championship or whatever, and we won't see a real SHTF so much as slow creep.
>>73037681
>chimp out.
Trump's going to get the black vote though.
>>73037755
Somebody tell this guy. I don't want to break his heart.
>>73037866
:^)
>>73037755
Blacks will vote for whomever Obama tells them to vote for, who tossed SNAP cards at them like chocolate at a parade.
Clinton is the embodiment of the democratic-plantation owner.
Hello (anon),
This is your automated daily reminder from your friendly election-bot that this is, statistically and mathematically, the predictable outcome as of now for the 2016 election, (Trump) VS. (Clinton).
Thank you, have a nice day.
>>73036649
quit appropriating our culture with that username you fucking roach
>>73038010
I know anon, I was memeing.
(Though actually tbqh I think they'll skip the voting part and settle on the chimping, which could be good and bad.)
>>73038075
>PA
>Not grey
>>73038075
>Red PA
>Philadelphia
>Pittsburgh
>>73038010
I'm voting for Hillary because I want my EBT to keep coming in
>>73038010
I hear ya and i'm not optimistic about the black vote either. If blacks could step out of their mindset of Democrats being the go to party and objectively analyze the situation they would find the following:
"The data is going to indicate sadly that when the Obama administration is over, black people will have lost ground in every single leading economic indicator category,"
The poverty rate for blacks sharply increased, rising from 12 percent in 2008 to 16.1 percent Wednesday. Median income declined by 3.6 percent for white households to $58,000, but fell 10.9 percent to $33,500 for black households, Census Bureau figures show.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/obama-blacks-poverty-education/2014/01/08/id/545866/
Here are two facts that may surprise many people.
1. Black misery has been growing since 2009 under President Obama’s economic and job creation policies. Black folks participation in the labor market has been steadily moving DOWNWARD during the Obama presidency – since 2009 when he was first inaugurated.
2. ALL other major racial groups have moved up, albeit moderately, since 2009! Blacks are the only group that has taken a definitive step BACKWARDS since then. Why? This article will argue that it is because for the past 4 years, until last week, Obama has declined to even put forth the idea that "low income Black people need targeted help too!!! Needless to say, has not designed any job creation strategies or policies that would do something for the Blacks who supported him the most.
http://www.blackagendareport.com/content/expansion-black-american-misery-under-barack-obama%E2%80%99s-watch
This all I can fit in one post, there is plenty more data to confirm this.
>>73038210
I expect a strong wave of chimping in July around the conventions.
They could easily chimp more or less non stop into november.
Heavy chimpenings before or even on election day could very likely backfire.
I expect significant examples of voter obstruction.
Like the Pocahontas who chained herself to a can to barricade a road to a rally, except people blocking polling stations, violence outside polling stations.
Pre-election chimpers will all benefit trump, as voters are more likely to be kissed off into voting than they are scared away from voting.
I'm taking the election day off with some redneck buddies and trying to observe and record such shenannigans.
>>73038451
>Romney not being 5 points within victory against Obama
>Trump not being an east coast ex-liberal
>Trump not being aggressively pro-coal
It's a shoe in senpai.
>>73039069
>anyone wanting coal
>>73039342
Be thankful, that's how you were born
>>73033279
Cubans are butthurt over Rubio losing and half of Puerto Rico has moved to the state in the past decade. He's probably fucked
>>73033213
he's going to build the wall. If Trump does nothing else he will build that fucking wall. It has literally been the defining aspect of his platform
Hell get PA too, any mining state is his. Also, watch Oregon go red. Screen cap this.
>>73039723
..so far. Of his platform.. so far.
No wall coming, I'm afraid. He's a developer, he knows it's a boondoggle.
