Every election since 1992 has had mostly the same common factors. I've been studying which states were won by who in all elections since '92, and it seems the determining factor as to who gets the magic 270 required electoral votes this year will likely come down to getting both Ohio AND Florida.
Unless Lord Trump can pull a Reagan and summon a landslide, or even just somehow win New York, I fear for the worst.
My guesses could be totally wrong though, so let's get others to give more personal insight and see if we can figure out what states matter and who will likely get what.
Map generator: http://www.270towin.com/
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1992
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1996
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008
>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012
None of this matter.
The FBI is going to fucked her over so hard the Democrats will concede. You can't run for the Presidency if you're literally indicted by the Justice Department of the US Government.
>>73008870
>New Mexico
>red
>>73008870
>>73008993
desu Hill dog probably bribed thee FBI
>>73008870
This election has been out of the ordinary, lets just realize that the voter turnout is larger and that it is very possible Trump will win
>>73009005
>Texas
>Blue
u wot m8
>>73009005
>Arizona
>blue
>>73008870
>New Mexico
>Colorado
>red
Big manufacturing states might go red because of muh jobs. Iowa, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, etc.
>>73009127
Border state
Surely they have problems with spics?
>>73008993
And then what? They'll let Trump have a freebee? No. They'll put someone who is much more like able than Hillary who will most likely defeat Trump. I don't think we should actually wish for an indictment until after the election.
>>73009005
>fish_bait_picturething.bat
>>73010051
They are the spics.
tell me why im retarded fampai
>>73010051
They have more spics than Arizona, but that's because they love spics, and we in Arizona hate them, that's why we are red and they are blue.
>>73010051
New Mexico is all spics dude.
But if Trump makes Martinez his VP then he can most definitely nab NM.
>>73010051
New Mexico is like majority hispanic, a lot of them have been there for 150 years too.
>>73010286
The Southwest looks right, and that's the region i'm most familiar with. The north east might need some touching up from someone who knows it better though.
>>73010286
I don't think PA or FL are going red this election.
>>73009793
Thing is, Pennsylvania is always blue, so I don't know how likely that is. Only reason Trump MAY be able to pull of New York is because he's popular there and has been there his whole life. Shillary has a lot of past in NY too though
>>73010464
Trump has a huge base in FL, my home state. I think he can swing PA by bashing hilldawg on trade agreements
>>73008870
Take everything you know about "conventional electoral strategies" and throw it out the fucking window.
Trump is going to take the traditional playbook and throw it out the fucking window. This isn't going to come down to Ohio and Florida - Trump is going to try and turn Democratic strongholds into swing states.
>>73010286
Trump is up big in west virgina, among other things
>>73010286
Michigan going red actually isn't that unlikely. Trump actually has quite a support base here.
Here's my prediction.
>>73010737
Arizona is a definite red m8. It's my home state, we are pretty damn red.
>>73008870
You're confusing necessary for sufficient conditions.
>>73010829
Georgia going blue? Why is that?
New Mexico aside, because no matter who gets it, it won't be a big player. You can give Trump over half the states and it stil come down to those few key states that determines the end
>>73010320
Picking her is one out of his only few options, while he may need Pankasich for Ohio win, or Lubio for Florida and Hispanics
>>73010829
dont be bias bro this is how it will go
>>73010858
I just made this off of all the RCP projections. I think Trump can certainly pull Arizona but he needs to pay some attention there to ensure that the dems dont take it
>>73008870
ftfy
>>73011044
We aren't going red this election.
>>73010829
>Georgia
>NC
>Missouri
outside of that, I totally agree, but the niggers in the cities aren't enough to throw it off in those states. That's still not enough to win, though.
Trump could pander to the Jefferson niggers to turn Cali red desu
>>73011026
That might be a little optimistic for the republicans t.bh
Trump is stumped
>>73011004
People think the nogs in Atlanta will swing the state. They did not do it for obama, they won't do it for anyone.
This is my prediction.
>>73011555
They thought it would be in play in 2008, and it was, but GA was solid red in 2012.
Also, nice trips...
>>73011094
that's the map when Hillary gets locked up
>>73008870
It will be this
>>73009793
>Pennsylvania
>Going red
Why do people keep desperately trying to force this meme? PA is in the fucking liberal Northeast.
PA. IS. NOT. GOING. RED. IN. NOVEMBER.
>>73011814
trade deals and muh jobs fampai
based on turnout for swing states only
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_2zR7LlDVUpVs1WM5S_bzeuooOvlVPvJVsEj4MXCOa4/edit#gid=0
>>73008870
>things dont change
>patterns go on forever indefinitely
wew lad
>>73011814
>Trump won't run
>Trump won't win any states
>Trump is stumped
>Trump won't win the nomination
This isn't a conventional election, faggot.
>>73011928
It's not going to happen you fucking faggot
>>73011803
Best case scenario for the Dems might I add
NY, MN, IA, MI are all in play for Trump as apposed to a regular republican
>>73010746
>throw out conventional strategies
>it comes down to Ohio and Florida
oh so, like the last 4 elections.
>>73010829
>utah will go blue for Hilldog
fucking retarded meme.
>>73010746
>Trump is going to take the traditional playbook and throw it out the fucking window.
Being a colossal asshole most of the country hates is certainly un0traditional.
>This isn't going to come down to Ohio and Florida - Trump is going to try and turn Democratic strongholds into swing states.
Cool story, bro.
>>73011814
PA is the definition of Trumps campaign
There is no way he can lose it
>>73011592
>1
>>73011803
>>73011933
I see all these as plausible.
>>73012303
If the dems think like you right now then they already lost. It's like Jeb 2.0
>>73010746
>muh feels
Every time
Trump will win in a landslide. White Christian American is under threat and the silent majority will force a paradigm shift.
>>73011803
>>73012120
Screencapped
You fags are delusional
>>73011814
Pennsylvania is the least cucked state north of the Mason Dixon, we'd be red until the end of days if Philadelphia lost about 20%of its turnout. We're always marginally blue, it's only a few % every year. Trump motivates people to get out and vote, Hillary doesn't. Assuming just 50% of the bernouts got salty and stayed home, or better yet, Trumpvoted, it'd be a fucking landslide. Philadelphia holds us hostage, however, there are 11 fucking million other people outside that city, myself included. If Trump plays his cards right here, it's his golden ticket.
my prediction
>>73008993
I'm hoping this is the case. It actually seems like it could happen, and I think they are just waiting for Obama to leave office so he can't immediately pardon her.
>>73012938
Iowa will go red long before NH.
>>73011933
Prirmary turnout means fucking nothing for the actual election
>mfw
Does anyone have a map that goes off the votes cast in the primaries?
>>73009793
Illinois, however small, has a chance. The city has host so much jobs to mexicans and all that the whitey there will vote trump.
>>73011814
Let me tell you about Pennsylvania.
We might be stuck here, but we are not 'in' the liberal northeast. Haven't you ever heard us called Pennsyltucky? Yes, Pitt and Philly are democrat hellholes, but not so liberal as you think. They are working democrats; italian bakers and polish laborers and irish cops. They've voted democrat and they are democrats in the same way Kennedy and Johnson were democrats. They are conservative democrats who believe in hard work and industry.
And sandwiched in between those urban bookends are republicans because they are conservative, and conservative democrat farmers and conservative democrat hunters, and conservative democrat coal and steel towns that have been ghost towns. Pennsylvanians love their guns, their country, and their rights, and they are intensely patriotic.
FIRST and foremost in Pennsylvania minds is jobs. Being conservative democrats they fit in the big bell curve bulge of 'moderates', that huge group of american majority that both 'sides' forgets about. They went red for Reagan twice and then George H. But George H. failed them, so they went for Clinton then twice, because they did see jobs and the economy prosper under Clinton. They squeaked by for Al Gore and then Kerry because they didn't want George W. (George H failed them, remember?) They feel Obama failed them as well.
You can win PA with jobs, that's all it takes. This will be a Reagan-esque result in PA.
>>73014469
You summed it up better than I ever could. Not to mention that or job market is at the worst it's ever been under the control of none other than; guess who, DEMOCRATS! Obama did exactly nothing to help us out. We got stuck with that faggot Tom Wolf because out former governer, who WAS conservative, Corbett, was a corrupt slime ball who sucked the dick of every facing company, thinking it would create jobs, when it only sapped them off. He also fucked our education. Now that Wolf has proven himself as just as big a fucking cunt, we're in a Conservative mood. PA is literally bipolar disorder- The state.
>>73014469
Thanks for the insight and optimism to help ease my doubts.
>>73015300
*fracking company
>>73008870
IA, WI, MI, OH, FL, NH and ME had more republican turnout in their primaries than democrat turnout. those states are already re.
trump has also said he can turn NY, MA, NJ and CA
in short, you're factually wrong, dumb shit shill. fuck off.
Find a flaw
>>73009005
>texas
>blue
>>73010286
Switch Arkansas, West Virginia, Iowa, and New Hampshire to red and Pennsylvania to blue and I think you're good
/pol/ was delusional about Mitt Romney and they are again about Trump
His support base is niche and he will lose badly in the GE
>>73015656
Redpill me on New Hampshire, please.
>>73015300
>PA is literally bipolar disorder- The state.
You made the TLDR
>>73015875
>Niche
Nice meme term, How much does Clinton pay her Digital media specialists anyhow?
>>73008870
She won't win Iowa, as an Iowa fag I can confirm this. Republicans are PISSED at her and once Brandstead, longest serving governor in US history, says "vote Trump," people will vote Trump
>>73015625
Does primary turnout actually have any correlation to GE turnout? I keep seeing shills say it doesn't but I haven't seen sources either way.
>>73015875
Every statement that you just made is factually incorrect.
>>73015875
Most people here hated mitt Romney and said he would lose badly
>>73008870
So for a candidate who has shocked everyone by succeeding by PURPOSEFULLY AND DELIBERATELY going against the grain and throwing out all of the rules that work for and against other politicians, from how to talk, what to talk about, how to game the system and how to manipulate everything
We have to treat him and his presidential campaign like exactly all of the people he not only beat just eviscerated, and all the generations they emulated and the politics they formed
To see how many delegates he gets.
Sometimes, /pol/ is extremely retarded, and despite getting on the Trump Train, is still thinking in 2D politics instead of 3D persuasion.
Sad.
Stereotypes and trends are 100% legitimate until they aren't, and the clock has run out on this establishment politics.
Also pandering picks for VP never fucking win jesus christ stop being dumb
>>73008870
We crushed it here when it was still a four man race. We will deliver like we did in the primary but even more now. Shillary will be BTFO in Florida.
>>73012854
It's not just Philly, bro, it's Pittsburgh too. You get this feeling that almost everyone here is conservatively inclined at least to some degree. That is, if they're not some IUP, Pitt, Penn State, or worst of all, a CMU student/graduate/other Alumni. The unions basically dangle people's feet over the fire when it comes to politics. My dad, who's one of the most conservative people you'll ever meet, but is a registered Democrat because the unions would constantly be prodding him over it.
>>73012211
>you
>reading
pick one
>>73015875
>>73015875
>/pol/ is one person
>>73016190
This /pol/ was still pretty salty over Doompaul getting jewed out, Romney and Obama were literally highlighting everything wrong with both parties, they were both caricatures of their party, which led to not many people feeling strongly about it.
>>73016190
Ron Paul 2012 you only had to listen.
>>73008870
I think almost everyone has this thing all wrong, by assuming that Trump is going to run a very typical campaign in the general election by focusing on the few traditional swing states. What I see Trump doing is going all out across the rust belt and other regions with large numbers of working class democrats, that have been fucked over relentlessly by the party establishment. By focusing on jobs and the economy white maintaining his position as a social moderate, along with a well executed smear campaign against Clinton, I think he could pull it off.
>>73015656
NV
CO
NH
PA
OH
MI
WI
IA
FL
:^)
We'll get through it by the skin of our teeth.
Can NY go red?
That's Trump's home turf more-so than it is Hillarys
>>73017789
Sadly, probably not.
>>73017698
Imagine the political nightmare if that actually happened. Holy shit.
![22-donald-trump-rudy-giuliani.w529.h352[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/oV98HPv.jpg "22-donald-trump-rudy-giuliani.w529.h352[1].jpg")
>>73017878
What if he brought in pic related as VP?
>>73017789
I think it has the potential to be close, depending on how each campaign plays out. If Clinton assumes NY is safe and doesn't campaign there at all, Trump could manage a steal I think.
>>73017789
Not a chance
>>73017886
No this would be a nightmare.
Also this means depending on the makeup of the next Congress there is the possibility of the president and vice being from different parties.
>>73017886
House and Senate both have Republican majorities...doubtful it'd go to Clinton.
>>73009005
>texas
>blue
Nigga I live in Texas and I have seen plenty of people wearing MAGA hats. There's no way in fuck we're going blue.
>>73019952
Actually because of Section 2 of the 20th amendment, if the Electoral College fails to resolve who will be the president or vice president, the incoming Congress, as opposed to the outgoing one, would choose who would occupy the unresolved office or offices.
>>73019627
Wouldn't it be the current Congress that would get to vote on this disaster?
Someone wake me up when all the #BernVictims get BTFO.
I'm in MN and this shit is getting unbearable.
>>73016097
>I keep seeing shills say it doesn't
that should let you know that the answer is 'yes'.
>>73008870
>since 92
Woah buddy thats like 4 presidents. Some sample size ya got there. Didn't even read the rest of your post because you're a dumbass
