Who is gonna win?
>inb4 "trump because I really would like that to happen"
Your objective opinion.
http://www.strawpoll.me/10071766
Or maby it will be some third party?
Vote n' shiet for what you think.
trump is gaining more every poll, and if you take into consideration that a lot of bernie supporters straightup won't vote, i'd say trump
>>72321128
Trump will lose where he can't afford to. It's sad, but I don't see him winning Ohio. He's got no chance of flipping Pennsylvania. The fact that Hillary is even competitive in Mississippi is not good.
I'd love to be wrong, though. Thank God we at least won't be stuck with Sanders. I can't afford the tax increase he'd saddle me with.
>>72321128
Trump has most of the moderate blocs and some of the republician bloc since the GOP would rather support Hillary. Hillary has the liberals and progressive bloc.
The bloc that will decide whoever wins is the Bernie supporters. And they are more likely to Hillary than Trump. At least to me
>>72322209
>they are more likely to Hillary than Trump
You're retarded.
Hilary. Too many Anyone-But-Trump voters will show up in November.
>>72322336
This
>>72322209
They're more likely to want mean gramma than rich uncle?
>>72321213
You're adorable. You remind me of berniekeks from 5 months ago.
Hillary. Trump lost the moderates. The moderates don't really like Hillary either, but she seems safer than Trump. Trump also lost women and minorities.
He's beating Cruz, but, let's be honest - Cruz is incredibly unlikable and comes off extremely slimy. As far as appealing to minorities and moderates, he isn't much better than Trump.
Since I dont even follow this shit:
What is the date when you know for sure who wins?
>>72322986
November 8th
>>72323058
But I'll guess you'll know by mid/end-summer or something if it isn't 50/50?
>>72321128
I think if the media and left keeps viewing Trump's voter base with the level of contempt they have until now then Trump will surprise them. If they actually stop up and listen and are able to form coherent arguments from 'cool' people then Clinton will win.
Either way I feel it's going to be close.
>>72323392
Unless something drastically changes, it won't be close.
Best numbers to go off of historically aren't the polls, but rather betting odds. Here is a good source:
https://electionbettingodds.com/
It's strongly in her favor. There is still time for him to change that, but, I don't think he can recover with women and minorities. He has a long shot with moderates, but, I think that's pretty hopeless too.
I think Trump is going to win.
Lots of people hate Hillary, and it will be very interesting to watch him debate her.
I reckon a lot of the Bernie supporters will support Trump as he is anti establishment, and self funded. I also can't see Cruz / Kasich voters voting for Hillary to spite Trump.
Hillary will play the woman card, but she has a lot of dirty laundry. Plus Trump is changing his image to something a bit more palatable for the general public, I think it will happen.
>>72323739
>Plus Trump is changing his image to something a bit more palatable for the general public, I think it will happen.
I think he needed to do this 3-4 months ago to actually win.
I hope hillary get's indicted or something during the general
the aftermath would be glorious :^)
>>72324016
it won't happen.
it's pretty amazing too because a very high ranking general just got nailed for mishandling classified data, yet hillary isn't getting held accountable at all.
>>72323738
Betting odds didn't predict Trump winning the nomination. Shove it.
>>72322336
This
Hillary is going to win. Any Republican candidate has an uphill battle because of the electoral map. But Trump would have to win both Florida and Ohio plus at least 5 swing states that all have been leaning blue for years to win the election.
Was going to vote Bernie (for healthcare policies, not free stuff) and Trump should hillary get the nomination. Seems that's whats going to happen. Fuck that sow and the system.
Given that, There's going to be a lot doing the same thing.
>>72324259
What is this bullshit everyone keeps spouting? Republicans control both houses, most governorships, and Bush was elected twice, but according to you nerds it's impossible for a republican to win.
>>72324178
He hasn't won yet and they are predicting him winning the nomination by quite a bit.
>>72324002
Possibly, but look at all the stuff he has come out with that would be career ending for anyone else.
The whole Trump thing is a fascinating phenomenon. The American public must be seriously pissed off at the establishment, thats why I think a good amount of Sanders voters will vote Trump.
>don't look but there's the guy!
>he actually thinks trump has a chance!
>you better not invite him to your party this weekend
>lol never!
>>72324381
Yeah, NOW when it's obvious. How about a few months ago when the odds were still heavily against? Betting markets don't know shit.
I think Trump will, but it won't be easy and it won't be more obvious until we get to the election itself.
This guy has been outmaneuvering everyone from day one. He was a joke when he first announced, now he's on track to win the nomination, good chance he might do so outright. As months go on, Clinton's unfavorability will rise and Trump's unfavorability will drop. Currently it's only a 14 point difference, it's quite possible for his to go down 7 points and hers to go up 8 points.
>>72321128
Believe me or not but even though it may not matter since I'm Indian but I wholeheartedly supported Trump. I still do but after watching him speak on AIPAC where he lambasted Iran for all the misery in middle East I'm in dilemma. IMHO Bernie, Cruz and Hillary are career politicians and they would keep the endless cycle of corruption and cheating going on, however I also support Russia and Iran. Even though Trump did not say anything against Russia but he lambasted Iran pretty hard for Israel. I have no interest in Muslims since I'm Hindu but Trump gouldve said something against Saudi Arabia too since they R one of the major factors of chaos in middle East today but Trump did not utter one single word against Saudi Arabia or Turkey. I never expected candidate such as Trump to be a lapdog for Israel.
>>72324380
Bush was elected a long time ago. Things have changed. You won't see another Republican get nominated for a very long time, if ever.
My actual prediction is that the two big parties will be the Democrats and a new Democratic Socialist party. It will be more like Germany where their (large enough to matter) "ring wing" party is more like our "left wing"
>>72324475
For the election outcome they have been consistently Hillary. The betting odds aren't perfect certainly, but they are a few notches above the polls since people put their money where their mouth is.
It's not good for small stuff, it's only good for a larger snapshot. Trump has been the frontrunner in the betting odds since mid January with one short dip.
>>72324417
tfw this literally happened to me.
Anyone else lose a bunch of friends you had from highschool because of this election cycle?
>>72324625
>a new Democratic Socialist party.
Highly improbable. Sanders does not have enough support to do that.
>>72324691
Pretty sure a couple people I was in the Marine Corps with blocked me on Facebook, because they either posted out and out lies about how great Sander's policies would be and how easily they'd be enacted or when I was asked who I was supporting, I said Trump and backed it up with facts.
>>72324728
I'm not saying next election cycle, but I'm saying within the next three or four cycles. It's headed that way. Again, just a prediction and I hope I'm wrong.
My feeling why it is going this way is because of the decrease in the number of white people compared to minorities. Within the next two or three election cycles I forget the numbers but there is something like 10% more voting minorities. The "silent majority" is becoming the "silent minority"
>>72324595
That's wrong. He lambasted Saudi Arabia for swimming in oil money while doing jack shit about the rapefugees. He's going to make them pay for rapefugee safe zones in the middle east.
Hillary will probably win by a lot but all the current measures of who would win are super fucked by the media.
>>72324380
Changing demographics in big states. If Senators or governors had representatives based on population(several governors or more senators for more populated states), and if congressional mapping weren't gerrymandered in the way they are, Democrats would be in complete control of the united states.
In that same regards, if every state had an equal amount of electoral votes, Republicans would win the presidency every election. However, by default, this is what you're going to be looking at. And based on demographics and registered voters, almost all of those states have been leaning blue for nearly 10 years.
>>72323739
>Lots of people hate Hillary, and it will be very interesting to watch him debate her.
One of the reasons Bernie couldn't win is he refused to attack Clintons record of dishonesty. Wouldnt attack her even when she was going after him.
Trump will not make that mistake and there is lots of ammunition.
>>72324839
>the decrease in the number of white people compared to minorities.
Except Sanders failed to gain any real support with minorities. I just don't see that happening. I do see the Republican party fracturing, if it doesn't embrace the change that's happening.
>>72322300
>You're retarded.
And what's your reasoning? Following your logic, all the republicans that say in polls that they wouldn't elect trump in the general would also vote for hillary, but you calculate with those numbers for Trump. I'm a Trump supporter but at least don't pretend like it's all gonna be easy.
>>72324971
>
as someone whol lives in va im telling you rn it is 100% going blue
>>72321128
Does pol really actually truely believe trump will win? Or is this all wishful thinking?
>>72324839
I suppose it's possible though.
>>72324924
I saw his speech on Saudi Arabia but I'm specifically talking abt his speech at AIPAC conference. His speech in concern to Saudi Arabia was pretty tame in comparison to what he said against Iran on behalf of Israel. Look I still support Trump but I only wish he softens his Rance against Iran and see the truth of who is actually exporting terrorism I.e. Saudis, Turks, Qatar etc.
Link to the AIPAC video I'm talking about: https://youtu.be/fQgDgMGuDI0
PS: I liked his foreign policy speech. It was solid
>>72325156
Wishful thinking. It was the same way during the Romney blowout. /pol/ was convinced that Romney won for months after Obama was elected.
>>72325156
I think he will, but I don't think it's going to be easy or apparent until it is.
I don't think many outsiders understand how incredibly despised Hillary Clinton is in our country. Sure Trump has had an uphill battle, but he is gaining lots of momentum. His popularity will only surge, it will take some some potent Clinton black magick to neutralize the Trump threat. They've proved themselves over the years, so it is quite possible.
Even though Trump is exactly what this country needs right now, I'm convinced Shillary has so much support by globalist elitists that even though Trump is likely to get the popular vote, I think they'll find a way to rig the system against him, just like they've done with every anti-establishment candidate in the last 50 years.
I could be wrong though. It's obvious that Trump has put a great deal of thought into this election and being that rich he definitely knows alot more of the 1% Jew shenanigans that are going on right now than anyone on /pol/, so mabey he has a plan for them too. I doubt he would have even considered running without taking the establishment resistance into consideration.
Either way I'm trying not to get my hopes up, I mean it is only the presidency so it only matters about 15% as much as mainstream media makes it out to be. It's unclear whether or not the US will wake up and take a stand against globalism, but this election will be a clear indicator of public opinion and the future of the world.
>>72321128
i would prefer Trump to win.
he's a blithering idiot but at least he's not a cold blooded warmonger.
Hillary is the easiest target in the world, she can't withstand Donald's savage banter
>>72325015
>>72325179
Yeah, I think the candidates in the Democratic Socialist party would have Bernie ideas but he niggers and spics.. and women.
>>72321128
Trump of course. How could she stand a chance against him?
>>72321128
Once Hernie Panders becomes Shillary's running mate, she's gonna have the white, middle class, 18-22 yr old Bernout voters to give her a big boost.
>>72325068
Yeah, probably. NV, CO, IA, WI, and VA are all blue leaning states. NC is red leaning, and OH, FL, and NH are all true toss-ups. With that being said, even if Trump won NC, OH, FL, and NH, if Hilary won all those other states she'd still win. And every one of those swing states except for NC went to Obama the last two elections.
tpday i will remind them
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fgcd1ghag5Y
I think Trump will be able to capitalize on the email scandal to great effect.
i honestly don't know. most of the world hates trump because hes said some genuinely stupid things and theres know way to tell what he will actually be like but clinton is a known warmonger and advocate for mass incarceration and is in bed with people who are comic book villain levels of evil. goven the current pop culture it might swing towards hillairy desu senpai
>>72321128
Hillary has openly admitted to committing treason by spreading the highest tier of top secret viewable by only a few people on the entire planet over unsecured channels she knew were being monitored by intelligence agencies across the planet.
So either she
>should be shot for treason
or
>is so dangerously incompetent she should not be allowed near any government function, even basic ones that pertain sensitive information of citizens such as giving out licenses at the DMV
Yeah, I'll go with the guy with over 500 businesses.
Well again, one of the things we bring up often is how Trump is causing Republican voter turnout the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time. I'm one of them. I gave zero fucks about which kike shill got into office last election, but this time I'll be voting for Trump
Hillary's voters are not anywhere near as motivated as Trump's are. A lot of them probably don't give a shit if he wins and probably won't make a special effort to get to the ballot. And this is before they've even had a real debate.
>>72325686
>most of the world hates trump
Most of the world is irrelevant.
>>72325766
Pretty much this. I was in A-school for the 2008 election and the was just about out of the Corps in 2012 and didn't care for anyone running.
>>72321128
I kinda wish they'd let Obama run again as a caretaker, because both these options are fucking dire
>>72326024
>Obama run again as a caretaker
Oh fuck right off.
>>72326024
Everyone please ignore this shit
>>72326075
Nah, fuck you son. Either Trump or Hillary would be the best of a bad choice. Your country needs candidates with experience, not Trump (with no political experience) or Hillary (token minority the left can feel good about voting for)
>>72326254
We've been electing president with political experience for a while... To the same fucking effect.
Fuck that shit, time for something new. The only right things Obama has done is open relations with Iran and Cuba and there's no telling how that will actually play out in the future.
>>72321128
Trump's unfavorables are too massive. HRC will win and the Democrats will take back the Senate. I'd say I'm 80% confident in this prediction, 90% confident in HRC win but not taking the Senate.
>>72326541
Trump's unfavorability mirrors Reagan's and is only marginally higher than Clinton's... And we're still over two months from the START of the general.
>>72325038
Anyone who is seriously "NEVER EVER EVER EVER TRUMP" is going to absolutely crumble and vote for him in the booth in November.
Honestly the biggest thing this election is I think Hillary bases her entire fucking campaign on minority voters. She'll pander like nothing else. If she can get minorities to turn out like Obama, she'll win unless Trump can cause a tsunami of White voters.
>>72322209
>hillary shafts Bernie supporters by using the DNC super delegates to shaft the campaign before it is out of the gates
>hacks his stuff, locking him out of his voter data
I'm sure the Bernie fans love Hillary
>>72326774
>she can get minorities to turn out like Obama, she'll win
Young voters madd Obama, they hate Clinton. Sadly, they also hate Trump(I fucking hate my generation sometimes). I don't think Clinton will drive voter turnout like Trump will...
Conversely though, they'll both drive some negative voters(people hate them one of them enough to vote for the other out of spite).
>>72322647
Why didn't anyone vote for the other candidates then? How did Trump win such massive landslide victories last Tuesday? I don't think you're quite in touch with reality.
Unless you seriously believe single black welfare queens and gang niggas are going to outvote working Americans, I don't see how he can lose. Everyone normal sees SJWs as psychotic.
Trump has been hugely underestimated and basically shaw shanked his way through 16 candidates.
But some things like the abortion gaff make me think he is almost unrecoverable when it comes to women, and Hillary to going to go maximum overdrive with the pandering.
If Cruz and Kasich would just fuck off and let him go general election he'd be able to start mending those bridges but these fuckers are going to the bitter end and might even try to fuck him at the convention with rules or some shit.
Problem is with Trump's current campaign style, I think he has a huge following that isn't to be underlooked but Hillary is going to try and turn out the minorities like nothing else and the abortion bullshit is going to be shilled to death to make him unfavorable to women.
He might not be able to make the inroads to win.
A lot can happen between now and Nov.
Lets not forget about Trump's ability to switch gears when needed and the debates to come. If Hillary gets slaughtered it could give him enough votes, and considering Hillary's unavailability that shouldn't be too difficult. The real question is, considering most independents are learning Trump, the moderate vote will be biggest factor, at the moment I'd say Shillary has the advantage at a factor of 1.5, however depending on how the next 6 months ago, it could shift. Bernie Sander's will most likely get behind Hillary which'll piss off at least half of his base, who half of that half would go to Trump instead as 2nd choice. Another question is what will happen internationally and nationally in the next 6 months? If ISIS cranks up it's attacks worldwide and especially on the home ground more moderates might see Trump as the stronger candidate
>>72326993
Honestly the election is completely fucky because you are talking about two deeply despised candidates but after 2 terms of a Democrat president who is mediocre at best (inb4 that canadian talking about how Obama is the greatest) I don't see Hillary's case being made.
So really this whole election will be about mobilizing voters. My fear is no matter how hard he can destroy her at the debates potentially, she just keeps saying "TRUMP IS HITLER HITLER HITLER" to get niggers to flood the polls
>>72327078
>But some things like the abortion gaff make me think he is almost unrecoverable when it comes to women
Except he responded to those complaints from women and changed. I think it did hurt him, but his response helped. The comparisons to Hitler dropped down dramatically (for a time) when he did that.
>>72327211
Agreed.
>>72327078
Women don't give a fuck about women's issues when their finances are in danger.
>>72325264
>Shillary has so much support by globalist elitists
I know the elites create public perception, but I wouldn't consider it farfetched that Hillary would have support in the American populus regardless.
>>72327091
Bernie already said he'd support Hillary if he isn't nominated, which reveals he was a DNC puppet all along
>>72327248
If you don't think Hillary isn't already having her people make the ads you are sadly mistaken. There are actually a lot of things said at rallies that will be taken massively out of context and put into ads.
She might not say "HITLER HITLER HITLER" but I bet you anything David Duke will make a reappearance. Like I said, this WHOLE election will hinge on Hillary's ability to mobilize minority voters because she is going to depend on them to win. She'll just say "TRUMP WANTS TO GAS LATINOS" to get the latinos to flood the polls.
One thing I also fear is Trump might stump himself, it's only going to take one time.
I'm not one to say he'll never win, I certainly give him much better odds than betting sites or the current polls but I feel like it's going to be crazy.
Also Trump himself is a moderate, but people see him as literally hitler for some fucking reason so he might need a moderate on the ticket even though he is one himself.
I think that Hillary will win, but it will be closer than most people think. Probably the closest election since 2000. What it's really going to come down to is whether or not Hillary can convince the Bernie Bros to vote for her instead of Trump.
>>72321128
Trump has already won, he just needs the votes.
What I mean by that it's he's got people talking about shit that was never on the table. Trade, illegal immigration (amnesty doesn't count), foreign allies, money in politics, etc.
No matter who wins these are all now issues back in the public forum.
>>72327614
Oh I'm not saying it's going to be easy, but he's already working on her. Even if feminists think it's sexist to call Clinton "shrill", she fucking is shrill. I don't know anyone that can stand listening to her. Every time she seems unwell, people are going to remember how Trump said she's unhealthy and lacks stamina. He's getting in her head too, one of her mottos literally said " Love trumps hate."
>Love Trump
Check out Scott Adam's blog.
>>72327025
Those "working class American Republicans" are now less than 30% of the total vote. Sure they can cause a landslide on the Republican primaries, but they don't in the general election where you have liberals, niggers, and spics in increasing numbers.
>>72326774
Anyone who is seriously "NEVER EVER EVER EVER HILLARY" (aka the bernie supporters you count for Trump) is going to absolutely crumble and vote for Hillary in November. There is absolutely zero reason not to apply the same logic you use for republicans to the democrats.
>>72328151
Hillary is going to be the ultimate opponent, I actually think Trump can speak directly to the voter but I just fear the left basically churning out minority turnout and basically saying "HURRRRR DRUMPF IS HITLER" like every fucking day, you know damn well John Oliver and every cuck late night talk show host is going to shill against Trump every night.
Basically I think what happens is the airwaves gets absolutely flooded with anti-Trump garbage. They are going to pull all stops.
I think Trump can win if he plays his cards right but he has some obstacles to overcome
>>72328527
I also think they're going to play every hand... To diminishing returns and eventually overplay it. Manipulation works best when it's just under the surface, they're going to get too obvious about it, and it'll play right into Trump's narrative of the elites being stacked against him.
