What would happen if the US left nato?
>>29998846
Russia envelops Eastern Europe and America stops being a superpower.
I can write actual volumes about this shit, the history of the countries involved, the political realities of a heavily unipolar world, the political climate of the nation's involved and their respective ethnic groups, and why all this random shit matters.
That being said, if I spent hours and hours telling everyone why all this shit matters and why it's vital for America to cooperate with locals and NATO all that's going to happen is a fuck ton of "TRUMP 2016" spam and "RUSSIA STRONK" bullshit.
I remember when having geopolitical discussion on /k/ was actually fun and I could both teach and learn to and from a large number of people from different backgrounds and educations, now it's "my dad can beat your dad up!"
It's all fucking sideways and I hate you for making me nostalgic.
>>29998891
I, for one, would welcome that lecture.
However I am at work, in break, and won't be able to spend time conversing until likely after the thread died.
It would fuck up all the political friendliness we had with Europe, and Russia would pop a chubby and rub it all over their neighbors. Political isolation would not be fun.
>>29998846
A new golden age for America.
NATO is an extension of US military industrial complex in Europe. 90% of NATO combat power is the US. Americans 'leaving' it pretty much equals dissolution of the alliance.
>>29998846
It would be extremely painful
>>29998846
Nothing other than budget cuts to joint projects.
All NATO facilities are based in Europe, top positions are given to US servicemen as a sign of respect for their contribution but they can all be replaced without any loss.
The C&C chain is all multinational and non us controlled and would not be affected - unless all us service personnel suddenly vanished. Which if (for arguments sake) Trump decided to leave NATO, there would be months maybe years of scale down rather than a door slam.
The deterrence of NATO would remain, however there would be less reason for the European nations to stretch resources to North America (Canada).
Europe still has the force projection to mount operations like we have seen in recent years and even something on the Scale of Gulf war 1 / 2 if there was political consensus.
BMD defence would be effected in the short and maybe medium term as the BMD Aster 30 is not yet ready for deployment - however it is still reasonable to assume that the US would still sell weapons to NATO so organically funded and operated SM-3 is not too difficult to imagine.
Tl;dr - gaps left by the US can be filled. Europe (NATO) without the US is a strong enough force to fulfil its goals.
Pic vaguely related.
>>29998846
90% of the funiding would be gone and even less would get done, which is really saying something for NATO.
>>29998891
First post, best post.
>>29998912
The time has long since passed that we need to be europes babbysitter. We should dump NATO and go into agreement with a scant few eastern european countries - Poland, Czech, Slovaks, Romania and Bulgies. Leave western europe to drown in its own shit
It reforms as a functional european alliance, pulls out of most foreign committments and life goes on - with the US enjoying a hell of a lot less leverage and influence over the first world.
Russia is still unlikely to get much out of it except more freedom in terms of what they can do about the Ukraine - anything west of that gets the EU involved and that's not a fight Russia can win.
>>29998929
For EU
>>29998891
You know, I actually don't mind that happening. What will happen to Europe's leftists that neutered their armies once Uncle Sam leaves them? Will they experience a shift to the right and increase military/defence spendings like Poland and the Eastern Europeans due to Russian pressure?
>>29998922
>90% of NATO combat power is the US
If you were to look at US military assets on paper and compare them to NATO assets you would not reach 9X the number of forces.
In reality the number assets the US can actually provide to Europe without jeopardizing the US' other commitments makes that number even lower.
NATO is perfectly capable of operating independently of the US as we saw in mali and the early days of Libya.
>>29998891
TELL US ANYWAY
For >>29998929
Eastern Europe would start shitting its pants a bit and some other euro nations might start matching France/UK on the 2% thing
>>29998943
You're answering not even half the qiestion. America leaving NATO is more than Europe losing American military capabilities, it's a complete about face of American political agenda and the end of the American superpower as we know it.
The immediate political climate of Europe would be so drastically different it would be difficult to imagine.
I personally believe that a tripolar Europe would be created, Russia would do Russia things, there would be a Franco-German centric alliance with Germany essentially bankrolling French military might at least in the interim, and a Poland centric sphere dedicated to keeping Russia out and creating a massive conventional and (possibly) nuclear deterrent.
The Franco-German sphere would basically leave democratic Eastern Europe to die on the vine while trying to maximize their markets and reach as they already are, counting on Eastern Europe to do the defending and at least be a good speed bump for Russia. Russia would try to puppet or annex surrounding areas such as the rest of Ukraine, the Baltic States, and maybe some smaller Eastern European nations.
Poland would dig in its heels and absorb the military budgets of the smaller nations around it while also creating a massive army and stationing troops in these nations. They would grow to despise the Western Europeans and their apathy for the potential loss of European democracy and eventually surpass them in first military, and then economic might as America and its allies start to prefer to do business with them over the Franco-German sphere. This all but destroys the Eurozone, Turkey starts several ground wars in the ME and goes full authoritarian to control the protesting masses as they attempt to basically reform the Ottoman Empire and exterminate the Kurds.
Russia and Turkey get into a war over Azerbaijan and Armenia, which softens up Russian might in the west, leading to the Polish invasion of Ukraine and Belorus.
>>29998846
Russia would probably try to invade Europe. Might get pretty far, I'd say nearly until Berlin and that's when they're advance falters and halts. Most of NATO's EU garrisons and forces would've mobilized to counter the Russian(soviet) advance and it'll be a Land brawl.
NATO would definitely rule the seas, since the Russian Navy is a fucking joke. Bongs would most definitely rule the European seas and the construction of the two new QE's would rapidly increase. France would most likely control the pacific side, along with what assets Spain could give. Australia and NZ might join the brawl since they're commonwealth members. And maybe India.
Canada and Denmark would probably control the North Pole and surrounding areas.
Turkey would, hopefully, control their side and counter the Russian advances, assisted by Greece, Italy and the RAF garrisons in RAF Akrotiri, Cyprus.
Russia would probably flex their wings a bit more and might annex Alaska, asking China to join the frey. Unlikely, however. If Europe does fall and the Siege of Britain 2.0 occurs, Russia would definitely invade the US, starting from Alaska and the East coast.
This is all implying if ICBMs and other Nuclear assets weren't launched when Russia initially invaded\started to get their shit pushed in hard
>>29999103
Russia, not wanting to fight a war on two fronts and balking at the Polish show of force and superior Polish (see: American) equipment, cede control of Belorus and Ukraine and pledge to not interfere in the internal affairs of nations in the Polish sphere.
Turkey eventually grinds the Russians down but Azerbaijan is fully occupied by Armenian and Russian forces, Russia and Turkey carve off chunks of the Middle East in the peace deal.
Western Europe all but collapses, and is bailed out by Polish and American investors, basically creating a client state subject to an emerging Polish-American alliance.
Iran, backed by Russia, invades and occupies Iraq, the United States enters a war with Iran, and Russia, while never deploying troops to fight America, supplies the Iranian military. Iran has its government toppled. Not wanting to repeat past mistakes and sensing an increasing tension with Turkey, America withdraws and the power vacuum leads to the creation of several states inside of what was formally Iraq and Iran, including an independent Kurdistan backed by the United States.
Kurdistan gets into a conflict with Turkey, leading to a ground war with the United States and Poland on one side, as they lopsidedly curbstomp Turkey into submission.
>>29998994
See >>29999103
>>29999220
That's what I see within 50 years of a total American abandonment of NATO.
>>29998846
Nothing we invented it. Same thing about UN. It's a tool to influence other Nations to conform to our will.
You'd think the rest of the world would know how big America's dick is since we constantly fuck them with it.
Lay down and shut up. Here comes AMERICA!!!!
>>29999103
>>29999220
PIDF pls go
Stop pushing "Poland stronk!", Bartek. Your nation is a fucking joke
>>29999258
Que? I'm an American?
In the event of America leaving NATO, a US backed Poland is the most serious military player in Europe.
>>29999274
Sure thing, buddy. Anything you say. Polan stronk
>>29999274
>a US backed Poland is the most serious military player in Europe.
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
>>29999274
>thinking Poland is relevant
>implying they wouldn't be one of the worst off when the US leaves
Now this is being delusional
>>29998891
I'm down, Anon. Let's go.
>Russia envelops Eastern Europe and America stops being a superpower.
In what time frame?
The US leaves NATO, but let's say on their departure they broker a succession plan for NATO to basically just cover Europe. Obvious options of NATO leads are Germany or France.
Assuming no other members leave then Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are still part of a defensive collective. They desperately still need the support of Western EU nations in the event of conflict.
The US leaves NATO and Russia does aggress, but who and for what reasons?
I'm not arguing with you. I think Western Europe doesn't have the constitution nor capability to confront Russia in the next 5-10 years if Russia starts shoving around neighbors. Even lesser so if Russia does something that is very fast and sudden.
What would be the first likely targets? Estonia and Georgia?
In the scenario where the US is out of the picture and Russia says that Estonia is now Russia in, say, 2020 do the remaining NATO members have the constitution to come together in defense of Estonia? Maybe the threat of a general war with Russia not deemed "worth it" for NATO. If Russia moves too fast they will guarantee a response, I think. If they just edge out territory over a 5 year span then I think under leadership like Germany other countries would start re-arming, but not to go to immediate war.
It's a fun scenario to think about. This generation has enjoyed such considerable peace that nobody thinks aggression is possible anymore. It's like we've forgotten what human nature means.
A very scary prospect, indeed. I think if Russia was careful enough they could get away with a lot with little threat of military response. Much of the EU seems to have no stomach for a confrontation and would rather sacrifice an alliance so long as they aren't bothered with a war.
I think a strong NATO is possible without the US leading it, but it would require some great initiative.
>>29998988
And why would that be necessary? The current standing forces of them combined are already more than enough to deal with theoretical russian aggression and that's on top of the French and Brits providing a nuclear deterrent.
>>29999205
>Russia would probably flex their wings a bit more and might annex Alaska, asking China to join the frey.
Why would Russia pull the US into a war?
I don't think Russia needs nor wants to conquer and control the whole of Europe crashing the global economy in doing so. They can get more with sacrificing much, much less. Eating bits of territory at a time while remaining uncontested.
>>29998846
It would crumble without the US funding it.
>>29998846
Nothing. The NATO is fucking useless.
>>29998846
Nobody would care. The world would keep turning. Russia might posture slightly more freely.
>>29999220
>Russia, not wanting to fight a war on two fronts and balking at the Polish show of force and superior Polish (see: American) equipment, cede control of Belorus and Ukraine and pledge to not interfere in the internal affairs of nations in the Polish sphere.
Ahahaha, sure. Is that before or after they turn Poland into a glass parking lot? And invasion of Belarus and the Ukraine as you describe in that idiotic wank fantasy of yours would constitute nothing hsort of a direct threat against what russia perceives as its vital interests. And nuclear powers react to that kind of thing very badly indeed, which is exactly why nobody sane even thinks about doing it.
>>29999205
The Russian Army right now is outnumbered by the armies of the various EU members as is. and in the long run, the EU has more than four times the population and ten times the economy. Russia ain't starting a war with that unless pushed to the wall.
Also
>if Europe falls
Yeah, let's say a combination of aliens and Putin getting Baba Yaga conscripted actually made that happen, there'd still remain the little problem that one russian soldier crossing the Rhine means the Frenchies nuke Moscow.
>>29999292
>>29999304
>>29999347
This is exactly the shit I was talking about.
>>29999358
I think Brussels and other European leadership is completely content with letting Eastern Europe go back to Russia, buy I seriously doubt anyone in those countries are okay with that. I don't think that the US leaving will immediately provoke an attack from Russia, and I think that Eastern European states will significantly up their military budget, spending at much as 8-10% of GDP on military modernization and procurement.
No joke I honestly think that Poland and it's Eastern European allies will band together to create a sizeable and deadly force.
I think Ukraine will be lost entirely, but will be retaken later, along with Belorus. I think Georgia just gets absorbed by Russia, but I don't see the Baltic States falling, I think that Poland and its allies will provide enough of a deterrent, especially if they develop nuclear weapons.
>>29999027
> might start matching France/UK on the 2% thing
Except France doesn't spend 2%.
Only the US, UK, Poland, Greece and Estonia do.
>>29999507
Re-read >>29999205
>This is all implying if ICBMs and other Nuclear assets weren't launched when Russia initially invaded\started to get their shit pushed in hard
>>29999445
>a country unpuppeting your puppet states means you nuke them
Kinda like how America glassed Iran in '79?
That's not how nuclear game theory works, especially if Poland develops a nuke program.
People with no understanding of geopolitics need not apply.
NATO is the US' foot-in-the-door in Europe so NATO would lose its reason to exist.
If no war with Russia: slow drift into oblivion.
If war with Russia: The EU would inherit the infrastructure with Germans frantically doing all it can to mobilize other western armies onto the eastern front, with the following reactions:
Nordic countries except Finland: lolno, economic reasons
France, Spain, Italy: lolno, political reasons
UK: might go either way
Benelux: haha, but seriously
I think that's all of them. War might go either way, probably a permanent frozen conflict in all that's between Germany and Russia, armament companies stock prices soar, everyone goes home happy, except eastern european civvies, who don't count against tallies anyway.
>>29999530
Nuclear game theory is an extremely important part of international politics, you can still have two nuclear powers go at it and not use nukes.
>>29999358
>Obvious options of NATO leads are Germany or France.
If the US wasn't present it'd fall to the UK, they're currently the ones bearing most of the command network infrastructure and have the rotation of joint operations control bound to them.
It rotates every so often in order to spread the training (It's been through Germany and Netherlands too, never France due to their shenanigans) but right now it's settled in the UK deployment plan.
>>29999274
Uh huh. Suuuuure.
Also I love how apparrently western Europe collapses for no goddamn reason whatsoever and then supposedly gets bailed out by polish investors - despite the fact that the fallout from such a collapse of westenr Europe would be nothing short of an economic apocalypse for eastern Europe.
>US leaves NATO
>forms separate alliance w/ countries that actually pull own weight
>EU's influence drops w/ out NATO
>Turkey quits saber rattling
>finally peace achieved
this desu
>>29999358
>Much of the EU seems to have no stomach for a confrontation
No stomach for confrontation over minor bullshit or controversive issues. Defending other EU members against naked aggression is neither.
>>29999585
There's a lot of reasons.
Poland and Eastern Europe have room to expand economically, whereas Western Europe doesn't. Without Eastern Europe there is nowhere for European businesses and markets to expand to, and that combined with an aging populace and upside down population pyramid the weakened economies of Western Europe simply couldn't handle the strain without a large amount of foreign cash being pumped into it.
>>29998976
10/10
>>29999616
>Yugoslavia was minor bullshit
They let a war and genocide go on literally on their border for years until America did something.
>>29999627
>Yugo had 5th largest army in Europe
>"rebels" wanted to break up country
>funded and armed by Ger and Aus
>after war Balkans in chaos, EU moves in and establishes influence
>>29998929
>>29998976
topkeks
>>29999550
Russia considers Belarus and Ukraine vital interests and barely tolerates mild political meddling from western polities there. An open invasion of either means all-out war to the hilt.
>>29999550
Does Iran directly border the US? Does the US have a strategic situation like that of Russia? No? Well then it seems that your analogy is fucking retarded.
>People with no understanding of geopolitics need not apply.
Sure. Given you've just demonstrated that this describes you, you'll now of course tkae your own advice and leave.
>If Poland develops a nuke program
That's a very big "IF". And without the EU or NATO intervening, Russia actually letting them is an even bigger one.
>>29998846
There's a lot of misunderstanding in this thread of what OP has actually said and people are projecting their fanfiction fantasies in the gaps.
Over what time frame is the US leaving?
Is the US no longer planning to co-operate with any European partners?
Will the US be replacing parts of the NATO treaty with smaller defence agreements?
Does this mean that current joint defence projects will be scrapped / recalled?
What will happen to key US technology that has been transferred over to European partners?
Will the US ask the UK for the return of Trident missile?
If so, will the UK have enough time to develop an alternative to Trident?
Has the US removed all economic ties with Europe?
Does the US government believe that in the unlikely event of aggression by Russia on Europe, it will have zero impact on the US?
Likely: NATO will be reformed, lead by a joint UK-committed NATO nation member rotation, UK would reach out to France for a joint SLBM, strengthening in eastern front land/air forces.
Unlikely: Russian invasion.
>>29999617
Wow, you have literally no fucking clue what you're talking about. No, actually, it's evne worse than that - you think you know something, but it's all complete nonsense.
>>29999627
Shockingly enough, yes, Yugoslavia was minor bullshit compared to an open attack on a EU member.
>>29998956
Ivan, shitpost is shitpost
Please go BTFO.
>>29998846
NATO as we know it would cease to exist. Most of the member countries don't pay their dues to begin with and without the US throwing money and manpower at problems the organization would become useless. To compensate, Britain and German would form a loose military alliance and militarize the EU. The process would be pretty hard on Europe as they don't exactly have the money to match Russia head on.
There's a chance that Putin would use this as a chance to march in but since Britain has nukes he might not. Hard to say with Putin.
>>29999358
I agree with most of what you said. If the US leaves and Russia starts throwing its weight around, I'd imagine most of the European nations would frown and maybe pass sanctions; but other than that I doubt any major power would intervene and protect a much smaller power if it meant war with Russia.
I'd like to think war would start when Russia would "cross the line". What that line would be, Idk.
Maybe it'd be like that situation in Ukraine.
>>29999249
>>29999220
This is a lot of faith to put in Poland.
>>29998988
>Will they experience a shift to the right and increase military/defence spendings like Poland and the Eastern Europeans due to Russian pressure?
Not until Poland and the Baltics actually fall, and by then it's already far too late.
>>29998964
They don't have to; France and Germany will sell out every country east of them, and then it's too late.
>>29999570
and how exactly can you prove this? there has never been an actual war between two nuclear-capable superpowers.
>>29999507
>Putin getting Baba Haha conscripted
kek, now there's a compelling image... the Hut on Fowl's Legs... Weaponized!
She make stew of filthy capitalist running dogs!
>>29999519
>Except France doesn't spend 2%.
Yeah it does.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS
>>29999508
>No joke I honestly think that Poland and it's Eastern European allies will band together to create a sizeable and deadly force.
People are making fun of you for this, but I agree. Poland is one nation that isn't going to be bullied around by Russia. Even without military parity they at least have the will.
>I think Ukraine will be lost entirely, but will be retaken later, along with Belorus.
I'm not so certain if as much land as you believe will change hands. I guess maybe over a long time frame. While limited war is possible I do think any sort of escalation will always be backed by the fear of nuclear retaliation.
