What if the Confederate Army successfully rolled into Washington DC, how would it change the war?
>>1101648
When?
>>1101648
>Successfully rolling into DC
You make it sound so easy. DC was essentially a quasi police state at the time with curfews and troops fucking everywhere.
Depends on context.
Did they get in after highly unlikely continuous routes of Union armies, or a mass defection?
Then maybe they can win.
Seems more likely that it'd leave them on over stretched supply lines in most cases. The Union wouldn't have surrendered, and being stuck in a hostile city that you can't give up because of "muh symbolism," can often become a Pyrrhic victory.
>>1101670
After first Bull Run, destruction or crippling of the AoP, or at any point between the Wilderness and Early's unsuccessful valley campaign, a concentrated Army of Northern Virginia could have taken DC. Not easily, perhaps, but not with great difficulty either. Washington's defenses were too static to deal with the kind of highly mobile warfare being used by the Confederates.
As to OP's question, it's likely that in a scenario in which the South takes DC (and almost certainly Baltimore and Maryland with it), France and England would be highly likely to offer official diplomatic recognition of the Confederacy, and they would likely attempt to broker a peace between the USA and CSA. Public outcry against the war was actually pretty fucking huge in the North (right up until Sherman takes Atlanta in 1864 anyways), and Lincoln was severely unpopular in his early first term. If England and France try to mediate in this situation and Lincoln says "No peace without Union," than Lincoln would be literally throwing away the next election to the Peace Democrats.
We'll never know for sure, but IF the CSA had managed to take DC prior to 1864, and IF the European nations recognized the Confederacy, and IF the CSA had managed to hold off Union advances for another year until November of 1864, and IF the Democrats win the Presidency, and IF the Democrats were willing to give independence to the South, than MAYBE the South would have won, at least temporarily.
It's all a total long shot though, and even Davis knew it was the South's only hope and said so repeatedly right up until it was clear that it wasn't going to happen.
Even if the South had won it's independence, any future conflict with the Union would be just as brutal, long, and difficult, for the South.
>>1102208
Good post anon. Do you know why the CSA didn't press their advance and take Washington DC? Were they afraid of being cut off from supplies or something else?
>>1102254
WHEN? These questions mean nothing without context.
>>1102280
Sorry, i should have clarified. I meant after the first Battle of the Bull Run.
>>1102254
After First Bull Run?
The troops were undisciplined and started ignoring orders to advance so they could loot the Union camps looking for food and plunder. A few Southern brigades were disciplined enough to continue pursuit but they weren't strong enough to overcome the handful of organized Union units posted as a rear guard. Eventually Beauregard managed to get his army under control again and they swept aside the rear guard but Washington was too well fortified to attack at that point, and Beauregard's army only had a handful of under-powered field pieces not enough ammo to even use them all.
Basically, the armies that fought at Bull Run were made up of green volunteers and both sides were crippled by undisciplined troops breaking rank to run or loot at will, and the small window of opportunity in which Beauregard could have sacked DC was sufficient for the Union to reinforce and prepare to check the Southern advance.
tl;dr First Bull Run/Mananas was a cluster-fuck of epic proportions for both sides.
![sneden_movements[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/a4HBmri.jpg "sneden_movements[1].jpg")
>>1102295
Because the battle left them very disorganized and exhausted. It was the first combat for the vast majority of their soldiers. Command and control was very shaky - discipline too. Took them a while to regroup after the battle. Remember, they were just a bunch of farmboys with little to no training in organized warfare.
But, if they could have gotten organized, they could have waltzed into DC.
After that, the best opportunity was Early's raid in 1864. Grant's bloody campaign bled the AoP dry, so they stripped DC forts for men, and Early could have actually taken DC if he had known how weak they were. But he wouldn't have been able to hold it, just raid it. It would, however, force the recall of the AoP from the Overland Campaign.
Second Manssas could have given them a shot at DC if they managed to cut the Union army off after the battle, which they almost did (Battle of Chantilly) but Lee just didn't have the fresh forces necessary. Needed to get ahead of the retreating Union army and cut off modern-day Route 29. If you're familiar with the area, the battle was fought basically where Fair Oaks Mall is. Pic related. Jackson was racing down 50, while the Union retreated on 29.
Other than that...if Lee had managed to destroy/rout the AoP in the Antietam campaign, maybe they had a shot.
That was about it though.
>>1102332
Just drew this to illustrate the post-Second Manassas situation, since it's not very well-known.
Jackson's route to 50 isn't accurate, just drew a line, I forget which actual roads/trails they used. Probably up Bull Run Post Office Road or Pleasant Valley.
>>1102380
Cool, kinda hard to imagine that back then such devastating shit was going on in the area i live lol.
>>1102396
Where do you live?
Also, Pope was ordered to attack Lee and was preparing to when he received word at the last minute that Jackson was spotted marching east on 50, so he ordered an immediate retreat. If Pope had attacked Longstreet (who was holding the battlefield around Bull Run) sooner, Jackson would have crashed into his rear and cut the only road connections to Washington, thus perhaps capturing a large portion of the Union army.
>>1102403
Alright. I live in Howard County, MD. If they would have captured them, would ny area be confederate?
>>1102380
>>1102332
Thanks anon, i was always under the impression that the battle at Gettysburg and the first battle of Bull Run were the closest the CSA ever got to taking Washington. Strange to think they had more than a few chances. Do you think that if the CSA ever took Washington DC it would meant the end of the war? Or would it have hardened the Unions resolve to win? I know someone else in this thread mentioned that the English or French may have brokered for peace, but i don't know how realistic that is.
![defenses-of-washington-925[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/bJzQ5fC.jpg "defenses-of-washington-925[1].jpg")
>>1102419
Ah, gotcha.
It's hard to say. Pope's army was just the Army of Virginia with some pieces of the Army of the Potomac, which was in the process of being shipped back to DC from the peninsula by Richmond. So, there were plenty of Union forces remaining in the area. I don't think Lee could have taken Washington, but it would have certainly been a huge blow for the Union if the Army of Virginia was partially or totally captured. Really hard to say what the outcome would be though.
There was quite a bit of fighting in MD though, you should check out the battlefields. Antietam, Monocacy, others. In 1864 Early actually made it into DC, up to Fort Stevens (Lincoln personally saw the battle, that's how close they were - pic related).
>>1102428
Yeah there were chances, but none of them were that great. They really just didn't have the men, and DC was usually well-defended. Lincoln was actually obsessed/paranoid with defense of the capital, for better or worse. For example, he randomly withheld 35,000 troops from McClellan's 1862 peninsula campaign (who had been specially trained for amphibious operations) and kept them for DC defense.
But, like I said above, even if Jackson is successful and Pope is cut off after Second Manassas, I don't think they could have taken DC. It was very well-defended with forts, plus attacking from the VA side meant crossing the Potomac. To attack, you'd have to cross the Potomac north and attack from the MD side.
If they captured it? Even harder to say. Pre-emancipation proclamation, quite possible that England/France would grant recognition. But Lincoln may have just doubled down, moved the capital to Philadelphia, and continued the war. I don't know, it's all speculative.
The best chance for the CSA, IMO, was to have Lincoln lose the 1864 election and get a peace candidate in the White House.
