What are some games where your side loses in the end, no matter what you do?
>>319902391
All of them, since you lose for wasting your time on nonsense.
The Monty Hall image is sure to keep this thread on topic.
>>319902391
always switch the door, yada yada.
pic is more interesting than the thread
>>319902391
It's not better to switch doors, just to make your choice randomly from those two.
Wind Waker. Instead of saving Hyrule, you destroy it.
Stay fags are retards.
This is mathematically proven and commonly accepted game theory. It's like how the final round had RSTLNE preselected, because that used to be the set of letters everyone picked.
Try using a deck of cards and play with a friend. Switch will mathematically prove itself.
>>319902391
XCOM: Enemy Unknown
Life is strange.
you always switch
i'll take my car now
>>319902391
What the fuck OP. Don't post using such images. You derail the thread into a 1/2 and 2/3 argument. I suppose the damage is already done now.
>>319902391
Couldnt you just pick the door with the goat behind it?
They showed you where the goat is.
Are they switching doors between rounds?
Seems pretty unfair.
>>319902391
emily is away
>>319903069
>because that used to be the set of letters everyone picked
They're the most common letters used in the English language, anon.
>>319902391
I choose to kick the host in the dick, open both doors, fuck one of the goats, then take the unused goat into the car and drive off with it for future fucking, running over half of the studio audience and playing 'Hotel California' on the radio as I go.
>>319903273
there's 2 goats retard
>>319902818
You're a retard, you ALWAYS switch doors.
>>319903536
Why?
>>319902391
I switch door to the one with a goat.
>>319903597
blah blah initial door is still 33% while other door is 50% something something google it
>>319903597
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0
>>319903385
that's wrong though.
>>319903447
Did you screen cap this for r/4chan, or should I?
>>319902391
i like how this problem effectively trolled the entire academic community
>not picking the goat
there's some good meat on that goat.
amnesia the dark descent
FFTA
Silent Hill 2
>>319903385
Yes, just saying the rules changed around basic game theory
>>319903597
Believe it or not, there's actually a 33% chance that the door you picked has it, and a 66% chance that it's behind the one you didn't pick
Imagine the same thing with 100 doors and one car. When you pick one, the host reveals 98 of the doors that don't have the car behind them
The chance that the door you picked is the right one is 1 out of 100. The host has manually selected which ones do not have it, so it's almost certain that the door he did not reveal has the car behind it
>>319903385
Most common are vowels, not including U, and the letter T
>>319903871
You don't actually get to keep zonks on let's make a deal
>>319903763
outside of L those are the most common consonants and E is the most common vowel.
>>319904072
That's bullshit, I won that goat fair and square.
Why is it always goats behind the door.
I've seen this 'puzzle' presented so many times and it's always goats.
League of Legends
Dota
Smite
etc
>>319902391
You always have a 50% chance. One goat will always be revealed so your second choice is actually the only choice. The first is irrelevant since no matter what you will be down to door with goat or door with car.
This plays on a mental fallacy that your odds increase as options are removed. That would only be true if a random door was opened after your 1st choice. Could start with 1000 doors. Doesn't matter. If the last 2 still are car/goat, you always had 50%
>>319904107
That makes them not the most common letters in the English language now, doesn't it? Even if you're only wanting 1 vowel.
>>319904147
Why do you want a goat so badly?
>>319902391
Dwarf Fortress
>>319904296
What fucking logic are you working under
Read my post, it actually makes a lot of sense when you increase the amount of doors >>319904028
Don't change, since you obviously picked the right door. It's the only reason he's even giving you the choice in the first place. If you picked wrong, he'd just tell you "Oh shit nigger you fucked up, go home."
I won't fall for your tricks Bob Barker.
>>319904028
This guy gets it.
Also Starlancer. Though it's only revealed in the sequel, so I'm not sure if it counts.
>>319904296
It is never 1/2 unless you start the game with 2 doors. We are starting with 3 doors here.
>>319902391Divinity: Ego Draconis
You've been helping the bad guy become immortal for the entire game.The voice in your head is the bad guy's wife.
>>319902391
Halo Reach.
Enslaved
Dreamfall
Limbo (actually, I'm not 100% on this one)
Conker: Bad Fur Day
>>319904028
tell me how the fuck that works
other than via the mind game that he can't open your door, and he can't open a door with a car behind it.
if he's opened 98 of them, why can't you discount those 98 and have it 50/50 either way? whether i decide to stay, or swap, 98 of those doors are now irrelevant to me.
>>319904430
Because they're useful.
You can ride them. Milk them. Stare at them. Pet them. Use them as guard goats.
Goats are like the swiss knife of the animal kingdom.
>>319903597
1/3 chance to initially pick correct door, 2/3 to initially pick wrong door. Showing one wrong and swapping to the other lets you switch to 2/3's chance of winning.
Say the car is always behind 3.
Pick #1, shows #2, person who switches gets car, person who stays gets goat. (1/3)
Pick #2, shows #1, person who switches gets car, person who stays gets goat. (1/3)
Pick #3, shows #1(1/6) or #2 (1/6), person who switches gets goat, person who stays gets car.
Unless the host has the option to show a goat or not and is incentivized to try to trick you into getting goat, you switch.
life, you will end dead as stone
>>319904296
>100 doors
>1 car, 99 goats
>you pick a single door
>host reveals 98 goats
>the chance you picked a on your first attempt is 99 out of 100
>the chance you picked a car on your first attempt is 1 out of 100
Why would you not switch? You are more than likely going to stay on a goat, and more than likely going to switch to a car
>>319904210
It's a ruse. They think you're being given a useless goat, but in reality you're being given the Game Of All Time, which if you reproduce would be worth far more than the shitty '73 Austin Allegro actually waiting behind the door.
>>319904724
then you're actually retarded.
>>319903597
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zr_xWfThjJ0
>>319904898
no, explain that shit.
when i make my first choice, the chance is 1/100
once you eliminate 98 of them, the choice becomes a second 50/50 choice because 98 of those doors are now irrelevant. both 'stay' and 'go' are choices in this second 2 door attempt.
explain how the fuck this is wrong you cunt.
>>319903753
I want to fuck the old lady.
>>319904724
Okay. There is a 99% chance of you picking a goat. 98 goats are eliminated, and only one goat and the car are left. If you switch and had a goat, you now have a car. If you switch and had the car, you now have a goat. Thus, switching gives you a 99% chance to get a car in this case
>>319904724
If you just wandered onto the set and they had already eliminated 98 doors and there were two left, yes the chances would be 50/50
But the fact that one of the remaining doors was randomly selected and the other (assuming the contestant didn't somehow randomly select the correct door) was manually selected because it is the correct one is what alters the chances so drastically.
>>319904296
>I cant do elementary school math
Man, NEETS sure live in wonderland
>>319904724
Pick a door
99% percent of the time there is no car behind the door
99% of the time if you open that door, there is a goat on the other side
99% of the time if you press your ear to the door you can hear "baaaa"
99% of the time this door is a bad door
99% of the time you don't want this door
99% of the time you lose if you open the door
100% of the time, these odds don't change
>>319904724
All doors are relevant because you started picking before you knew anything about what was behind what door.
If there are n doors and there is only one car behind a door, the chance I choose the car is 1/n. The fact that the host opens up all the other doors but 1 does not change this fact. Therefore, the chance the remaining unopened door has a car behind it is 1-1/n.
>>319905057
see >>319905090
(btw anon thanks for explaining this so clearly)
>>319904296
This is correct and you're a fool if you can't see it.
If you do anything other than demand a goat, you're playing this game wrong.
Any host playing this shitty game is a cunt and should be forced at gunpoint to fuck every goat they have.
>>319905359
SEE >>319905090
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE ACTUALLY
YOU CAN PROVE THIS AT HOME
>>319905359
Nice bait.
>>319903753
Is this a joke?
When you have only 2 doors to choose from you have a 1 in 2 chance no matter which one you pick
>>319905446
You are wrong.
But don't feel stupid, tons of math masters around the world also were.
You can test at home.
>>319902391
Why don't you just get two doors to start with if you end up with two doors anyways?
>>319905446
Except there aren't only 2 doors. There are 3 doors when you pick.
>>319902391
if you're re-doing this infinitely, the host always picking a door that doesn't have a car behind it reduces it to a 1/2 chance.
it's only 1/3 if done once, because you can't be sure he'd do that every time.
>>319905260
>assuming choosing to stay is not the same as choosing to swap
Either wah you make a 50/50 choice
The 100 doors is red herring
>>319905446
http://www.stayorswitch.com/
simulate it a bunch of times
switching should have you win around 66% of the time
>>319905446
Suppose you have 2 doors to start with, one green and one red
The host tells you that the green door has the car behind it, and the red door has the goat behind it
Is it 50/50 then? 2 doors, that means 50/50
>>319905602
Only if you decide by flipping a coin.
>>319904028
Yeah it makes sense ty
>>319904724
>he can't open your door, and he can't open a door with a car behind it
That's exactly how it works, retard.
>>319905554
Because the point is that most people will want to stick with their gut, not aware that they have a better chance when they switch
That's how the show would make its money
>>319905554
[Spoiler]you do, thats what swapfags dont understand[/spoiler]
STUPID FUCKING BASTARDS
There are actually 4 doors. You needed to come in a door - now, if you came in past the goats, or past the car, it wouldn't be much of a choice. Plus, it would be unwieldy to get a live studio audience past goats or a car. Furthermore, you would need an additional exit even if this inefficient door set up was chosen because there would need to be a fire-exit.
THE CHANCE IS 1/4, THEY ACTUALLY PUT THE CAR BEHIND THE SET.
It's a test to make you think outside the box.
Enjoy your goats, you stupid statistician fuckheads.
>>319905665
Wrong
Fucking retards. You do realize that the second half of the goat is in the middle door, right?
You fucking stay on the left door
>>319905602
Except you are forgetting there were 3 doors to choose at the start. Your logic is as flawed and is basically as follows:
>What is the chance I win the lottery?
>I either win or I don't so 1/2
>>319905719
then it's nothing but a stupid mind game
if i pick the door with the car, he can open all 99 goat doors and give me my god damn automobile.
>>319905602
It's not, anon
It is not.
Serously.
Grab a friend.
Get a deck of cards.
Choose a card that will be the winner.
Try it your self, half the time sticking with the one you chose, half the time choosing the one your friend doesn't reveal.
There is no point debating when this has been proven, can be proven, and will be proven again
>>319902391
what type of car or goat would I be getting?
Depending on what they are I think I might actually want to have a goat
If the car only has 3 doors, I don't want it.
I have to ask this, every time I hover a image I see a weird blue button. Did I just get a virus or is the jap moot testing something?
Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders - The most famous of which is "never get involved in a land war in Asia" - but only slightly less well-known is this: "Never start a thread with an image more interesting than the topic"! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! Ha ha ha...
>>319902391
>>319906060
What's the difference between those two options
>>319905876
Youre saying the choice to swap is 50%.
The choice to not swap is also 50%.
Otherwise you're arguing that by opening both there is only an 83% chance of finding a goat.
See the problem?
>>319906065
Are you kidding? It's the same guy who always posts a similar image and just wants to create a debate around that image. He's done this with Monty Hall most of the time, but he's also done it with the parrots and other bullshit.
>>319905905
>half the time sticking with the one you chose, half the time choosing the one your friend doesn't reveal.
but then your probability of getting a car would only be 24%
>>319906156
Car, not goat, sorry
>>319902391
Hold up hold up
OP's image has been edited
It's not 1 car 2 goats anymore, it's "there may be 1 car, there may be 2 cars, there may be 3 cars or no cars at all"
So it literally doesn't matter anymore since you don't know
So does this mean that a mathematician would win big in Deal or no Deal every time?
>>319906171
I know, it's still a relevant reply.
>>319902391
I hate this thing. I just don't get it. I can accept its right since Im not really a math person and I know smarter people than myself have looked at it.
But it just makes no goddamn sense to me
>>319905893
>there are people on /v/ right now who are THIS stupid
>>319906374
Just fucking try it yourself.
>>319906156
I have no idea where you are pulling 83% from.
The chance I choose a car is 1/3. If I switch, the chance is 2/3. It's as simple as that. It is irrelevant the host opens a door.
>>319906352
With normally distributed random selections probably, but that's impossible to predict
>>319905625
I remember there was a site that would run it a few hundred times or so and you could see it would eventually land at 70% and 30%
>>319906156
The door you didn't pick has a 66% chance of having the car. The door you did pick has a 33% chance.
>>319906352
No you idiot.
>>319906418
whether i stay or go, the choice is always either 1/100 [even if 98 of that 100 are irrelevant] or 1/2.
>>319906352
Statistically, he'd do better on average, but there's no way to win big every time in something truly random.
>>319906352
Being a mathematician doesn't help. Banker always lowballs you, ideally the best move is to always say no deal. But that's just getting the highest expected profit, if you're not a mathematician you still have some sort of risk appetite and you make your decisions based off of that. There's really very little math involved, it's just your personal opinions on what you're willing to risk.
>>319906352
You don't need to be a mathematician to calculate expected value. Also, in practice, people have very different beta values when it comes to risk tolerance.
If there was 1 dollar and a million dollars left, statistically I will average 500k, but if you offered me 400k not to have to risk it, I'd take the 400k in a heartbeat
>>319906279
I'm talking about going through two separate tests using two different approaches
You can do it with three cards, or if you want to exaggerate the phenomenon and do it with an entire deck
http://www.stayorswitch.com/
>>319906453
I mean Ive thought it over, I kinda understand the logic behind the reasoning for it. But at the same time I just don't see why it is how it is. As far as I can tell, once the first door is removed, its a 50/50 chance that you get the goat after that regardless of whether you switch or not.
>>319906374
It's normal. Human "logic" or "common sense" is not really logical at all. Russel already pointed that out a century ago.
You can always test for yourself.
>ITT gamblers fallacy
Wish it would have stayed ot, interesting topic
>>319906374
Think there are 3 diferent universes where the car is always in the same place, the only diference in each universe is that you pick a diferent door in each one. After the reveal, if yoy swap in 2 out of 3 universes you win, if you dont yoy win in just 1 universe, hence the 2/3 chance that gives you swaping
>>319906667
WE VIDYA NOW
>figuring it out with mathematics when there are always other forces at work to jew you out of your win in a game show
>>319906675
The door being removed is irrelevant. You had a 1/3 chance to choose the car. Removing any doors does not change this chance.
>>319904028
How does that work for 3 doors though? No matter which door you pick initially, he will always pick a single door, because there will always be two goats and one car. Even if you land on the car on your first guess he will still reveal a goat, so how does switching doors help your chances any?
How does the process of elimination work here when the process plays out exactly the same no matter what?
>>319902818
>just to make your choice randomly from those two
Yeah, instead of making a random choice out of THREE doors. 1/2 is better than 1/3
>the choice isn't 50% even when you know one goat will be revealed
lmao
>>319906861
>>319906675
"100 Doors! – Solution #2 to the Monty Hall Problem
Imagine that instead of 3 doors, there are 100. All of them have goats except one, which has the car. You choose a door, say, door number 23. At this point, Monty Hall opens all of the other doors except one and gives you the offer to switch to the other door. Would you switch? Now you may arrogantly think, “Well, maybe I actually picked the correct door on my first guess.” But what’s the probability that that happened? 1/100. There’s a 99% chance that the car isn’t behind the door that you picked. And if it’s not behind the door that you picked, it must be behind the last door that Monty left for you. In other words, Monty has helped you by leaving one door for you to switch to, that has a 99% chance of having the car behind it. So in this case, if you were to switch, you would have a 99% chance of winning the car."
>>319906534
No. The probability that switching will get you the car is ALWAYS 99/100. If you don't understand why after a bunch of people have explained it very well ITT, just give up on ever understanding it and accept that the people who aren't dribbling retards are right.
>>319902391
All Metal Gear games except maybe 4
>>319906675
Rather than thinking about it as removing a door, think about it as switching prizes
At the outset, you have a 2/3 chance of getting a goat and a 1/3 chance of getting a car
If you decide to switch prizes, the odds are reversed, and you now have a 2/3 chance to get a car and a 1/3 chance to get a goat
>>319902391
What if I re-select the same door after one is shown. Doesn't that still make it a 50% chance?
>>319905057
Your initial chance of winning always stays the same if you don't switch. You had a 1/100 chance of winning on your first choice. It doesn't matter if the host opens 50 doors, 1 door or 98 doors, your chance of winning will still be 1/100.
>>319906667
>>319906794
VIIIDDEEEOOO GAMES.
MY FUCKING WIN RATE IS OUT OF THIS WORLD THANKS TO SWITCHING HOLY SWITCH IM SO FUCKING GOOD AT THIS GAME
>>319906861
then you still have a 2/3 chance of choosing a goat. a door being removed to reveal a goat doesn't chance this chance - technically speaking you could pick the open door.
>>319906970
No. Only if you don't know which door was originally choosen. If you know which door you choose first, switching is alwasy advantageous.
>>319906374
I'm going to try to reason it out without looking it up.
The issue is that people assume all events are independent. This is incorrect, however.
There are two possibilities in picking:
1. you pick a goat -> guy shows a goat (2/3)
2. you pick the car -> guy shows a goat (1/3)
The catch is that the guy always shows a goat. Chances are that you picked a goat as well (2/3). Which means that chances are that the car is in the door you did not pick.
Now time to look this up as see how fucking dumb I am
>>319906374
>>319906453
This. Do it yourself. Get a six sided die. Pick a door, then roll the die. 1-2 = Car in 1, 3-4 = car in 2, 5-6 = car in 3. 'Reveal' one of the goat doors that you didn't pick. Keep track of who would have won, a switcher or a keeper. Do this 10-20 times. Statistically a switcher will win ~66% of the time, and a keeper ~33%.
>>319906970
No. Your door has a 33% chance of having the car, the other door has a 66% chance of having the car
>>319906876
With 100 doors you are less likely to pick a car the first time.
With 3 doors, you are 33 percent likely to pick a car the first time.
It just scales down the chances that switching wins you the car from 99% to 66% because you are eliminating less options.
There is mathmatical formulas for this shit if you really wanna dive that deep.
Fuck this dumb shit, I'll just go jack a car.
>>319906753
This is the easiest explanation you will get without actual math, draw it you still dont get it and it will make sense
>>319906950
No shit. Why did you quote >>319906861? I make it obvious that you should switch.
>>319902391
All three doors have goats.
Goat simulator master race reporting i n
>>319906675
List out all the possible situations that may occur if you dont switch. Count the ones were you get the car and the ones were you dont. Divide the two numbers. After that, do the same for switching. You get 1/3 and 2/3.
>>319907060
Yeah, you got it.
>>319906876
It's the same effect, just at a smaller scale
One door was chosen randomly, and the other (assuming the contestant didn't pick correctly, which will happen 1/3 of the time) was selected manually BECAUSE it does not hold the prize, the chance of either one of the unpicked doors being the correct one (66%) is carried over to the remaining one
>>319904028
>The host has manually selected which ones do not have it, so it's almost certain that the door he did not reveal has the car behind it
That's a big assumption, what if it's a blind pick where the hose doesn't actually know
or what if he knows you know and he's just fucking with you
>>319907223
>>319907280
Video games aren't allowed here. This is reddit discussion territory, lads.
Mathematics is bullshit, fuck this
>>319907087
Why does the other inherit all of the "lost" probability from the other door?
>>319907374
Are you asking what if the host removed the door with the car and made it so there's no way to get a car? then it's not the monty hall problem
>>319907427
SHUT THE FUCK UP WE VIDYA
>>319906667
>>319906667
>>319906667
>>319907223
I don't fucking think so, punk!
>>319902391
The first Half Life and its expansions
Earth gets fucked over by the Combine and Black Mesa gets nuked.
>>319907049
To clarify, the host opening a door is irrelevant to the fact you had a 1/3 chance of choosing the car.
When the host opens a door, you now have these two options
Your door : 1/3
Other door : 2/3
The other door is 2/3 because 1-1/3 = 2/3. So you switch.
>>319907565
VIDYA AS FUCK
http://www.math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
>>319907362
Oh neat. I was starting to doubt myself hardcore there.
>>319907574
Tommy Vercetti doesn't even own a gun!
>>319902391
The positive door isn't weighted at the reveal; the negative door is. When you make the initial pick it's a 2/3 chance of being a goat door; when the time comes to switch it is STILL a 2/3 chance of being a goat door. The door you switch to only has a 1/3 chance of being a car door but when you make the pick it also only has a 1/3 chance of being a goat door while your initial pick retains it's probability.
It makes no sense, but it works.
>>319907538
Nowhere in my post does it say the car is removed from the equation
I swear to god /v/, I swear to fucking god
>>319907374
That defeats the entire purpose
Not sure what your question is trying to prove
>>319902391
>meme science
The problem only works if the original door is assumed wrong
y'all are fucking retards for believing this
>>319907670
FUCKING STAY FAGS BTFO BY VIDEO GAMES HOLY SHIT
http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm
>>319907689
Well shit, looks like I might have to enter that stupid gameshow to get a car after all.
>>319904821
This is fucking wrong though. As the host reveals each of the 98 goats, the probability is shifted EVENLY between the two last doors. That means your first attempt is now 50/100, and the other remaining door is also 50/100. i.e. 1:2
Saying it's 1/100 vs 99/100 is fucking stupid
>>319907374
If the host *has* to show a goatdoor after you pick, you switch.
If the host *can* show you a goatdoor after you pick, and is incentivized to get you a goat, you stay. Because you basically remove the "you picked a goat heres another goat" possibility. But this adds a bunch of extra variables of motivation and intent, not included in the Monty Hall problem.
>>319907789
OH DEAR LORD LOOK AT ALL THIS MONTY HALLF VIDYA
http://www.to14.com/game.php?id=4d486a4bd2405
![yyhikvg[1].png](https://i.imgur.com/ABvyiad.png "yyhikvg[1].png")
The explanation cannot possibly get simpler than this. If you still don't get it, consider suicide.
>>319907707
I'm asking what the fuck you're asking because your questions make no sense.
>DURR WHAT IF HES FUCKING WITH YOU
what does that even mean
>>319907927
no question was made, do you have reading comprehension problems?
>>319907773
No it doesn't, the image is just really ambiguously worded
The Monty Hall problem doesn't claim that switching will be correct every single time. It only claims that you have a better chance if you switch, and to give yourself the best chance, you should always do so, even if a third of the time it won't work out for you
>>319907803
Forget about that dumb shit Tommy, take Quentin's ride.
>>319907895
HOLY SHIT MY CAR WINNINGS ARE FUCKING INVINCIBLE
http://www.kongregate.com/games/blueangel911/monty-hall
>>319908014
>what if it's a blind pick where the hose doesn't actually know
>or what if he knows you know and he's just fucking with you
>>319907819
I T I S N ' T
I don't know if you're trying to rustle my feathers or what, but please please try to understand that there is a difference between the two methods used for selecting each door
Read this>>319905090
>>319907909
that's assuming the goat does not change doors
>>319907087
wrongo; your initial pick has a 33% chance of having the car and a 66% chance of having the goat; the other door has a 50/50 chance (1/3 v 1/3 really) for either. Only the door you initially pick is weighted in probability. 1/3rd of the probability exists on one side of the pick but is projected onto the other side. It doesn't make sense but this is why it confuses both sides of the argument.
Splatoon.
>tfw Cat/Water Slide/Hot Dog/Autobot/Science/Plane/Ninja/Pizza
>>319907819
Look at this: >>319907909
It is the best explanation for the paradox because it shows you what is really happening.
>>319908014
>>319907927
>>319907374
You need to take a moment and get your shit together, friend.
>>319908227
The configuration of what's behind each door is irrelevant.
CGG=GCG=GGC
>>319908127
Those aren't questions, those are assumptions, as presented in the original question. Which is why this shit is debated to death.
>WHAT IF THE HOST SHOWED YOU THE WRONG LE DOOR HURR DURR
yeah, sure, and what if he didn't. What if I had X-ray vision and I blew past this bullshit
>>319907909
this is based on the assumption the host will always pick a goat, and not a door at random
>>319908227
You dont get it. It shows you all the possible outcomes of one games, not three different games.
>>319908137
looking at this just re-enforces my belief it's always 50/50
pick 1: pick 1/3
one of the goats is now eliminated
you're now either on a goat or a car, switching will either give you a car or a goat, but there's no chance of swapping a goat for a goat.
>>319908351
Yes, because the host does always pick a goat. That's how the game works.
>>319903597
https://www.khanacademy.org/computer-programming/monty-hall-simulation/1121357698
https://www.khanacademy.org/computer-programming/monty-hall-simulation/1121357698
https://www.khanacademy.org/computer-programming/monty-hall-simulation/1121357698
>tfw an amateur teen programmer can figure this out and model it but you can't even comprehend it
>there are people ITT at this very moment who don't understand the Monty Hall problem
I guess it's okay if you didn't figure it out on your own, but if you are given the logic and still think it's 50/50, you should be culled. At least never state your opinion ever again, as you're clearly not suited for the responsibility.
>>319908351
>Then, the host will open one of the doors you did not select to reveal a goat
it's right there in the puzzle
>>319908351
Thats part of the monthy hall problem. Otherwise you would have to account for the host accidentally revealing the car.
>>319908371
But it works in exactly the same way, you double nigger. do you really need someone to move the doors around to show it to you?
>>319908351
If the host picks the car door, and you can't switch to the car door, then switching or staying doesn't matter because you can't win at that point.
Also it says right in the image that he opens a door that A) you didn't pick & B) has a goat.
"You blew it, and you blew it big! Since you seem to have difficulty grasping the basic principle at work here, I'll explain. After the host reveals a goat, you now have a one-in-two chance of being correct. Whether you change your selection or not, the odds are the same. There is enough mathematical illiteracy in this country, and we don't need the world's highest IQ propagating more. Shame!"
If you pick the right door first and switch, you'll always lose. There's a 1/3 chance of picking the correct door.
If you pick the wrong door first and switch, you'll always win. There's a 2/3 chance of picking the wrong door.
Thus, switching is the better choice.
Wouldn't each door have both a goat and car behind it until revealed otherwise?
>>319902391
Convoy has a random event that gives you this scenario. I've won every time by switching.
>>319908445
You don't need to understand why the problem works to program it, you realize that right?
>>319908731
If you're really going to bring quantum mechanics into this, even that's wrong because the tv show producers have observed which is which
>>319908731
no because the host knows
Fuck this shit, I'm calling the Animal Liberation Front to liberate these goats. No longer will they labor under the oppression of the evil Monty Hall and his minions.
>>319908916
But how do we know? The tv show producers both have seen what's behind the door and haven't until revealed otherwise
>>319908916
Not even that, the goats themselves have observed themselves
>>319909012
woah...
mind=blown bro
>>319905602
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4vRTzsv4os&list=PLt5AfwLFPxWLzNG4Ttv9-qZj86xt-J9_W&index=3
>>319909054
I don't speak goat so they don't count
>>319908416
You jump the odds to 1/2 for no reason. Just because there are 2 doors to switch between does not mean the odds are 1/2.
Your logic is as flawed as this:
>If I have 9 green jelly beans and 1 red jelly bean then what are the odds I choose the red jelly bean?
>you either pull green or red so 1/2
The fact the host opens a door doesn't change your chance of picking the car which was 1/3
>>319908336
The word you're looking for is rhetorical question, not assumption. An assumption would be straight up assuming something (hence ASSUMption).
Assumption: The host doesn't know what door the car is behind.
Rhetorical Question: But what if the host doesn't know what door the car is behind?
And yes, rhetorical questions are still questions.
Semantics aside your initial is still completely dumb and this the Monty Hall problem isn't debated in anything other than message boards because its already been proven better to switch doors.
>>319909198
So what if the game show producers don't speak English?
>>319909203
you miss a step.
i have 9 green jelly beans and 1 red jelly bean
i throw 8 of the green ones on the floor
you now either pick red or green, so 1/2
>>319906374
>>319909153
Watch this video. Didn't get it intuitively until I saw this.
>>319908351
It's called the Monty Hall problem because it's based off a real gameshow, you fucking idiot
>>319909321
I'd wonder why the host is screaming in spanish and opening up a door with a goat behind it.
what if the host is lying
>>319909501
then it's not the monty hall problem
>>319909342
Here you go, anon. Not sure why I need to keep linking to this but go ahead and take a look>>319905090
>>319902521
isn't it all nonsense, anon?
>>319909342
No. You chose the jelly bean BEFORE the other 8 were thrown out, so the odds you picked a red one is still 1/10 regardless.
>>319908261
> paradox
This is not a paradox, it's a normal probability problem.
>>319909472
Host speaks English, but hasn't observed where the car is
Producers don't speak English but they have
>>319909342
You missed a step.
I have 9 green jelly beans and 1 red jelly bean.
You are colorblind and see in black and white. You point at one jelly bean. You have a 1/10 chance of knowing it's the right jelly bean it was.
That's one jelly bean. There are 9 left. If I told you "You can play the game like this, you either can stick with your jelly bean, or you get to pick the other 9 jelly beans and if one of them is red you win, which one do you pick?"
That is the problem at hand.
>>319908731
Even if that was the case it wouldnt affect the probabilities because the car's squared wave function would have a value of 1/3 on each box after, and after you opened the door with it, it would change to 1 to that and 0 for the others.
>>319909561
my first choice becomes irrelevant because i subsequently get another choice, which is the important 1/2 choice.
>>319909342
For the love of Christ, the jelly bean thing was just an example to show that just because there are only 2 outcomes doesn't mean the outcomes happen equally.
>>319909745
No. It would only be 1/2 if you didn't have the knowledge of both your first choice and that the host only ever throws out green jelly beans.
>>319909840
which was a misrepresentation of my position.
>>319909623
your retarded just pick the one thats a slightly different shade of gray
>>319903812
i gocha senpai
>>319909880
>and that the host only ever throws out green jelly beans.
the host only throws out goats in the monty hall problem.
>>319909958
Epic. Just epic.
>>319909954
>Different colors can't be the same value
Spotted the retard who never painted a picture in his life.
you're*
>>319909958
>iphone
i hope that was on purpose and you're not ACTUALLY a mobileposter
>>319902391
>>319909881
Wait what? If I made the mistake of replying to a 1/3 2/3 anon then I apologize. I thought I was talking to a 1/2er.
>>319909964
Yes, which is why switching is always beneficial.
>>319904028
>33% chance
Nah senpai it's a 33.3333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333...% chance actually.
>>319909745
>go for 66% chance
>you still got a goat
>because of chance
lmao'ing@math majors
>>319904430
The only way to get into the goat tower is to save and befriend a goat.
>>319910157
you are talking to a 1/2er
in a situation where no jelly beans are thrown out, to say the chance is 1/2 is absurd, in a situation where all but 2 jelly beans are thrown out - well, draw your own conclusions as to what my position was, and how it differs from the position i stated was absurd.
>>319910075
no your still retarded because who would even want a red jelly bean when green is better?
it's 50%
>>319904758
Abdul pls
>>319910094
Considering that he tried to use the filtered F-word...
>>319902391
Literally doesn't make a difference. It's 50:50, you dumb fucks, you fucking retards. What are you, a fucking moron, you stupid piece of shit? What a fucking idiot. Christ, just kill yourself.
It's 50:50. It doesn't matter if you switch or not, you stupid fuck. lol These fucking MORONS. How fucking stupid can you even be?
>>319910094
nAw i get mad reddit gold with shit from here
>>319910290
>he doesn't like sour red apple
You are the cancer that will destroy this brave nation
>>319910172
but anon, 33.333...=33.4
>>319910394
possibly the worst bait I've ever tasted
>>319910482
>Rounding a 3 up
what?
>>319907819
Why you are wrong is very simple.
When you picked the doors were closed.
If you walked up and all the doors but 2 were open you would be right.
The issue however is that you cannot think of numbers in a set.
Stop thinking about it in terms of the individual doors. If you can't manage that, I'm sorry you are retarded.
The door you picked is set one. Every other door is set two. Your set is 1/100. The other set is 99/100. Taking the probabilities that means your set is a 1% chance. The other set is a 99% chance.
If you can't understand it after this you are just a little special. Don't go for a career that needs math.
>>319910212
>>319910212
thanks for just proving my point dumbass
>>319909342
>I have 10 jelly beans in a bag
>I tell you to pick one at random without looking at it
>You had a 1 in 10 chance when you picked your jelly bean of getting the right red one
>The bag has a 9 in 10 chance of containing the correct jellybean.
Now I take 8 of the incorrect green jellybeans out of the bag, leaving only the one in your hand, or the one in the bag being correct.
The one you picked was still picked with a 1 in 10 chance of being correct. It STILL has a 1 in 10 chance of being the red jellybean because that was the chance when you made the choice.
JUST LIKE THE ONE IN YOUR HAND STILL HAS A 1 IN 10 CHANCE OF BEING RIGHT, the bag still has a 9 in 10 chance of containing the correct jellybean.
There's only one right and one wrong answer, and the odds that either of them being correct has to add up to 100%, since if you were to choose both you would have a 100% chance of getting a red jellybean. The chance of the one being correct in your hand is still 10%. That mean the other 90% must belong to the bag.
>>319910573
>Your set is 1/100. The other set is 99/100.
If you open each door then it turns into 98/100, 97/100, etc. until you reach 1/100
so now you have 1/100 vs 1/100
it blows my mind that people still try to say you shouldn't switch
mathematical geniuses will tell you to switch
>>319910482
Anon I'm sorry to say you are retarded but you are retarded.
.9.. rounds up because there is no number between it and 1. There is an infinite amount of numbers however between .3 repeating and .4.
>>319910792
>mathematical geniuses will tell you to switch
many of them disputed this when the idea was first raised, it's completely reasonable that laymen would disagree.
>>319910880
if any did then they're retarded
>>319910880
That's very true, I'm just baffled at how hard they are pushing back when I've plotted it out in the most basic terms imaginable
I was introduced to this when I was a snot-nosed 13 year old and I still understood it after some explanation
>>319910276
This thread has gone on for too long. Like I keep saying, just because there are two options left does not mean the answer is 50:50. The Monty Hall problem is THE example of this.
