Doing a Futuristic setting. How many presidents should I say have came and gone into office in 500 years? We've had 45 president so far, soon to be 46, in just 240 years so how many presidents would you say they'll be five hundred years from now? Would making him the 100th president improbable even when taking one term, 2 term, and assassinations into account?
>>47458102
The way things are going I'll be surprised if it gets to 60.
>>47458102
>America as a country and a political entity
>lasting 500 more years
One day Timur was in the mood for teasing Nasreddin Hodja.
- `Hodja,' he asked, `can you teach your donkey how to read?
- `Yes I can Great Timur.'
- `Come now Hodja! How can you teach a donkey to read?'
- `If you give me three years time and 3000 gold coins, then I can teach my donkey how to read.' the Hodja was adamant.
- `But if in three years time, your donkey cannot read, then I will punish you most severely for trying to mock the Great Timur.'
Nasreddin Hodja and Timur agreed on the terms, the Hodja took the 3000 gold coins and left Timur's luxurious tent. Hodja's friends who witnessed the deal were incredulous.
- `Hodja Effendi, what did you do? You know you can't teach a donkey anything other than braying. Three years later Timur will have your head chopped off!' However, Nasreddin Hodja was not worried.
- `My dear fellows,' he said calmly, `before three years are up, either I will die or Timur will die. Or, the donkey will die!'
>>47458102
You've had 43.
Well, figure that each president averages six years (I'm sure this is oversimplified), and one out of every 15 gets assassinated, that means about 83 more presidents, of which about five get capped before leaving office.
The next one will be the last.
>>47458276
Republic dissolved, God Emperor confirmed.
>>47458102
46. MAYBE 47 but the 47th will be widely regarded as having been illegitimate.
>>47458294It's Obama
It's not gonna be number under 60, quite possibly under 50, and only history autists will know or care what it is.
Sure are a lot of pessimists in this thread.
>>47458598
Not really, the samefag counter is fairly high already.
On average, a president sits for 5.5 years. I've taken time off for assassinations and impeachments, as well as more rare things like resignations (looking at you LBJ) but biased it towards two terms, because that's more likely than not IIRC.
Add our current number to 230/5.5
Let's assume USA as a nation exists in similar form as it does today. Let us also assume the institute of presidency continues largely unchanged. You'll have AT LEAST 83 presidents between now and then, assuming no assassinations and every president serves full two terms. The only way 100th president would be in office is if the institute undergoes some radical changes, like removing the term limit entirely.
>>47458700
Additionally, you can make it 6 if you think things will get more stable in general, and 5 if you think things will get less stable.
>>47458704
That should be 63, not 83. Still more than 100 total.
>>47458565
>his smirk when Trumpfall
The fire rises, Brother.
>>47458721
106 total. Factor in a foreign occupation or desolation of government and you get 100.
>>47459147
Factor in that not every president is going to serve full two terms and you still get more than 100.
>>47458177
> Seeing a Nasreddin Hodja story on /tg/
Holy fuck, talk about things I didn't think would ever happen.
>>47459181
True, but depending on how long it takes (dictator takes over for 40 years) it could cancel out.
>>47458102
There would be somewhere between 125 (500/4) and 63 (500/8, last guy is halfway through his first term) presidents in that time, assuming no assassinations.
62+46=108 presidents minimum, assuming they all serve two full terms.
It is impossible for the President 500 years from today to be the 100th leader of the nation, unless the term limit were repealed.
>>47459194
A magical place.
>>47459648
>>47459194
>>47458177
I enjoyed this.
>>47458598
pessimists? 500 years ago the middle ages was ending, thinking America will exist in any shape or form in 500 years is sheer lunacy.
America is gonna be here next week?
>>47458598
>Thinking anything lasts forever.
The sun never sets on the british empire right?
>>47459540
The 100th president could be the current president if OP writes in nonconsecutive terms.
>>47461066
Technically still true.
More to the point, Britain does still EXIST, even if its territorial holdings are much less (mostly through peaceful negotiation)
The president will never ever be assassinated again. It's possible, probable even, we'll eventually have a president die of sickness or old age in the white house, but the president will never be murdered again, short of a nuclear weapon
>>47459988
It's a very common proverb; I had heard it previously as a story about teaching a horse to sing. It seems rather excessive to call it remarkable.
>>47461348
How do you figure? They are public figures, they don't have a pope mobile when they go out there it is their own flesh and blood.
Now no one will probably ever get away with assassinating a president but there is no real ground to stand on to say it is impossible, and believing it is impossible is the first step to laxing enough to make it probable.
>>47458102
So in the span of 260 years you would have a minimum of 26 presidents, maximum of how ever many you want, a president can only be in office for ten years or two terms, provided there are no new amendments/ that amendment is not repealed in that span of time. So if they some how figured out how to reliably get ten years out of each president (Which is very unlikely) You would only see 26 more, now then with 260 years that is 65 terms, let's assume we have 25 two term presidents, and no one dies in office without someone who gets relected taking their place.
That would be 40 more presidents.
But you can write it how you want, a lot can happen in the span of 260 years.
>>47461348
Is this what americans are taught or do you just like writing america fanfiction?
>>47462251
Actually I am expecting a president to be assassinated within my lifetime, people are getting crazier all the time. And hell you had the cartel lord that threatened to have one of the candidates killed.
>>47461314
>Britain still exists
>Not the British Empire in any meaningful way
>So the sun has set on it
>And now the former colonies and subjugated peoples are invading Britain and turning it into Bongistan
>>47462338
Britain is in a better place then Prussia.
>>47458102
Under the current rules, there would be an absolute minimum of 63 different presidents in a 500 year period. Adding that to the current list puts you over 100.
Of course the rules aren't set in stone. They've been changed before and could be changed again. FDR had just started his fourth term when he died in office.
>>47460964
Many of the major powers from the 16th century are still fairly wealthy/powerful nations today.
>>47458102
>Doing a Futuristic setting. How many presidents should I say have came and gone into office in 500 years
Assuming Eight years for each president (which is how things usually go), roughly sixty two.
More if you get some presidents who's administration is cut short or they decide to not run for re-election, less if there's a serious change in precedent for terms.
>>47461646
It's also at the end of 'The Mote in God's eye', the singing horse version that is.
The singing horse version there and the one I've heard elsewhere ends slightly differently, as the thief does say that maybe he will die, or the king will die, or the horse will die, but also that maybe, just maybe, the horse will sing.
>>47462338
>A fraction of 800,000 refugees will have any noticeable impact on the demographics of a country of 64 million
>>47458102
Does it need to be 500 years? Couldn't you just go by the average term of 5.45 years (we've had 44 presidents, by the way) and, from that, determine that roughly 295 years will pass before we inaugurate our 100th president? That seems like plenty of time for a futuristic setting.
>>47465778
>A large number of highly fertile, young, reproductive age migrants will have any noticeable impact on the demographics of an aging society where the minority of reproductive age rarely have more than 1 child (which leads to the population roughly halving with each generation)
Yes. Considering migration is literally the only source of net population increase in the UK. You also have to throw those rapefugees on top of the pile of already existing migrants.
Just keep this in mind: London is a city governed by a Muslim, where white Britons are now the minority. A mere two decades ago you'd probably be arguing that this would never be possible.
Post-60s has already affected the British gene pool more than the Anglo-Saxon invasion, and will continue to do so.
>>47462280
In all fairness that candidate is literally Rich Hitler, except Hitler could patch a goddamn economy.
In the past 227 years there have been 44 presidencies. Thats about 5.16 years per presidency.
We can safely assume that x÷5.16=p where x=years and p=presidencies.
727÷5.16=141
There will have been about 141 presidencies in 500 years, but assuming that a president serves a non-consecutive term (like Grover Cleveland), it's -1 president for every 227 years.
So we come to the conclusion that in 2516, the U.S. will have it's 138th president.Mr. Donald J. Trump XCV
>>47461003
I hope so, I haven't finalized my "Gather friends and family and collectively fuck off to Europe when Trump gets elected" plan.
>>47464424
True, although most if not all of them of them have gone through various political reforms and revolutions. There might very well be an United States in 500 years, but whether they still have presidents is another thing entirely.
For all we know it might be ruled by a royal family of Trumps in the future.
>>47465897
>the minority
If you haven't already figured out you don't really know enough about statistics to make statements like the ones you're making, I hope you figure it out soon. Considering you don't know the word "plurality".
>>47466659
>If you haven't already figured out you don't really know enough about statistics to make statements like the ones you're making
Are you implying that those of optimal reproductive age aren't the minority of the population? Consider that the average age for the British citizen is 40, whereas the average age for the Pakistani citizen is about half that.
My point is that with demographics, especially when talking about highly fertile immigrants, you need to look at age brackets. Pretty much anything above the age of 35 could be left out of consideration when looking at their impact on the future generations through reproduction. And in Britain, those below 35 are indeed the minority.
