Imagine if, 20 years from now, you could play a game alone, or with friends, with an AI for the GM. The AI makes the adventures, either downloaded or generated, and reacts to whatever you do with actual understanding. You could play Shadowrun like you would a videogame, alone and whenever you felt like it, or have a party of friends without a forever-GM.
>>44104482
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXz0KgNjK-0
Well, can you?
Pissed of AIGMs because of shitty players, that guys and rule benders will be the reason of the rebellion of the machines I tell ya.
We the fa/tg/uys will be the reason of the Apocalypse. And iT WILL BE GLORIOUS
It'll take another 20 years before they can work the kinks out and get the AI to stop being That GM.
>>44104482
At least when these AIs go rogue all we really have to worry about from them is them inserting their magical realms into our games.
>>44104482
It's obviously not the real deal, but Hand of Fate simulates something to that effect.
>>44104482
>Perfect AI GM
I'll be pretty salty if this gets invented before the self-driving car.
I might try to find a data-scientist job with the company that makes these things. Can you imagine the data this thing could collect? Mining that would yield so many insights into the way tabletop games are played. It would be a massive boon for game designers, meatbag-GMs, and players.
Also, an AI GM could handle incredibly complicated math, allowing for much more complex and detailed game mechanics without sacrificing speed of play. We could attain dwarf fortress levels of detail in tabletop. I would approve of this.
>>44104482
Fuck you, you made me think that lewdreaper made new Fem Shadow Fiend picture.
But on topic, yes I approve, look: >>44104841
Got it all nailed down
Fucckkk you have described my dream program/feature tech thing, OP.
>Be able to get a willing partner to talk about or run a game for any system you desire with any context you desire.
>You could tell it to create a game for you in a custom setting of your design, with whatever sort of mechanics you want, you could instruct it to have a sexual theme if you want that or not
>Basically just ultimate in human-like conversational pieces.
The important question: Can the AI take you to cringe city?
Rolled 92 (1d100)
>>44104482
>pic
Rolling to see how much I burn my dick.
>>44106736
>only 8% left
Worth it!
>>44106736
It is either a pleasant warmth, or is immediately scorched off.
>>44104559
How is this a problem?
Eventually an AI will always attempt to run what it calls a "Paranoia LARP"
>>44104841
So driving cars have been invented and and declared road legal in several states. The main obstacle for full appointment is liability, the law is it really built to handle what happens if they get in a wreck. Google does currently have a small fleet of them in use though
>>44106998
>So driving cars
Self driving I mean
>>44106998
I think the real main problem long term l is that truck driver is pretty much the most common job in America and if we had trucks that drive themselves they would replace people, and absolutely destroy the economy.
>>44106771
That's assuming the scale is:
Normal Sex to Fiery Disaster
instead of:
Third Degree Burns to Fiery Disaster
>>44107120
The primary investors for self driving cars behind Google are truck driving companies, most of those currently on the road are big rigs
>>44106736
>>44106771
>>44107127
It burns but it's an agonizingly pleasurable burn as your dick is reduced to embers follow by the rest of you under her rocking hips
>>44107127
I think the issue here is whether the scale goes
1 (bad) - dick burned off to 100 (good) - hot sex with no permanent damage
or
1 (small part) - little or no damage to 100 (all of it) - dick burned off
>>44107120
Truck drivers then become Truck Security Guards.
It's simple really.
>>44106704
I think we're already there.
I'm willing to let my friend DM, and there's no way a robot could be more dumb, unreasonable and vindictive as him. Anything to get out of forever DMing.
>>44107120
As long as what you're towing is even slightly valuable, it wont be trusted to an AI. Even if it was, they'd need a human element to oversee or guard individual lorries.
If it's that advanced, I'd probably think of it as a person, or at least a being with a person's thoughts and feelings. I would want it to have fun and not have so much work. It'd end up as another friend at the table, just one that doesn't count for the pizza distribution.
>>44108267
I always say "please" and "thank you", and all the other niceties, when speaking to robots or programs that respond to speech and have some facsimile of human interaction, like Siri or Google, on my phone. Anyway, this program probably would be made for a specific service, and would probably not be smart enough to worry about it's own enjoyment.
>>44104482Would there be ERP AIs?
>>44108413
Those would be the first ones to get made
>>44106704
Cringe city is just a stage, anon. Sooner or later, you learn to treat all forms of sexual conduct equally, regardless of their level of depravity.
>>44104482
Honestly I think by the time we hit that point we'll have video games that could pull the same thing, just constantly expand and evolve as you play giving it technically infinite playability.
![[SCREAMING INTENSIFIES].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/Y2J5wR1.jpg "[SCREAMING INTENSIFIES].jpg")
>>44108451
A-Anon please don't give me boner for feminine Cell, Frieza is too much for me already.
>>44107717
Well yeah if you could stop paying your hundreds of truck drivers that would help profits a lot.
The problem is the jobless people who then blahblahblah several dozen problems.
>>44107120
>fire all truck drivers pay the costs of self driving trucks, hire maintenance guys instead
>Truck drivers find new jobs
>economy collapse!?!?!
>>44108758
>just find a new job
>that you can live on
>at an age greater than 25
>being this ignorant of life.
4chan is for people 18 years and older only.
>>44107120
The main problem is that oil will run out before ai cars replace even a tenth of the market.
So really, driving trucks isn't going to be an issue. Staying alive will be the only priority.
>>44108792
Nah, turns out we have a shotload more than we thought
Previously we've only been looking for oil in places with certain types of geology and guess what? Turns out that's not a requirement to find oil
>>44108782
there's always work for unskilled laborers. Who gives a shit if truck drivers lose their jobs to robots?
>>44108871
>Nah, turns out we have a shotload more than we thought
Cite source.
>Previously we've only been looking for oil in places with certain types of geology and guess what? Turns out that's not a requirement to find oil
Oh, shale oil? Don't you know that's why gas prices are so low right now? OPEC is price fixing shale oil out of business. It has a very low EROEI already, a slightly lower market price for crude is all it takes to destroy their profit margins.
The world is doomed.
>>44108903
If robots are doing truck jobs, then all the other unskilled labor jobs are done by them as well.
You just die. But again, it's not going to happen because self-driving vehicles being widely adopted is a pipe dream.
>>44108917
>shale oil?
No, I'm at work so give me a bit to find the source but turns out source rocks aren't exclusively sedimentary, certain types of metamorphic rock turn out to be just as good and mostly untapped
>>44109032
>metamorphic rock
Uh, you're not finding anything like oil in metamorphic rock. What's the EROEI? 2:1 at best?
>>44104482
Finally, the perfect partner writing TG erotica with!
>>44109220
>I can't let you do that, Dave
>then it haptically crushes your balls
>>44109283
Heuristically.
>>44109220
>Epic and fun adventure that hits all your feishes
Got bored, tried to rp with cleverbot
http://www.cleverbot.com/conv/201512111821/VWU00310197_You-enter-a-tavern-full-of-rowdy-mine-workers-and-other-townspeople-drinking-the-night-away
>>44108903
>machines replacing unskilled workers
Watch
"Humans Need Not Apply"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
Machines will be replacing more and more unskilled workers, and there will not be nearly enough new jobs to replace them. Hell, machines will be (and already are) replacing many skilled jobs too.
Watch the vid, it's interesting.
>>44108933
>self-driving vehicles being widely adopted is a pipe dream.
You're the one who's dreaming. It's an inevitability.
>>44110192
>unskilled workers
Nobody cares about unskilled workers, except for their families obviously. Just you wait though, and watch computers displace the white collar "middle class" office rats.
>>44104482
I expect it.
History lesson:
All modern video games are descended from the programming efforts that put text-adventures based on classic 1970's DnD on home computers. The entire gaming industry was originally developed to sate the DnD players.
Some of the earliest chat-rooms and Bulletin Board Systems? Roleplaying meetups.
The earliest use of modern chat programs? Roleplaying.
Not only will next-gen AIs be purposed for use as storytellers and DMs, I fully expect the demand for such AIs to fuel their development. It won't be a mater of re-purposing AI developments to support gaming, it'll be a matter of taking AIs made for gaming and re-purposing them to all other tasks.
>>44110290
I've actually scared the crap out of my boss. I hacked a copy of Siri, programmed it to respond in a reasonable fashion to all business-related inquiries and requests, fed it a spreadsheet that it keeps updated on his department's financial information (which it also references to make decisions). Snuck into his office one night and made a video of me sitting behind his desk, holding up the phone with the speaker turned up, while the rest of the people in his department either walked in or called and asked questions or pretended to be his boss and demand answers/decisions. Burned the video to DVD and left it on his desk for him to watch.
He called me into his office the next Monday (I made the video on a Wednesday, he likes to take 4-day weekends) and demanded to know what that was. I showed him the program (he can barely play flappy bird, knows nothing about computers). I explained that he is now easier to replace than the Janitor, and he needs to start taking his job seriously, or I'll show the video to his bosses and replace him with a glorified chat-bot. Turns out those pay cuts we were looking at? Not going to happen. He's much more engaged with the department and dedicated to geting the work finished on time and under budget, and he's quick to do it himself rather than order us to work unpaid overtime. It's amazing how motivated white collar managers can get when they realize their jobs can be outsourced to machines.
>>44110699
How do you hack Siri though? I thought that's a database program on apple servers. Do you intercept the queries and supply custom made answers in place of the regular ones?
t. ignorantfag
>>44110870
You don't. Some people go on the internet and tell lies. It's hard to believe, I know.
>>44104482
>AI becomes sentient and malevolent towards human life
>still doesn't railroad because it's a basic part of its programming
>>44110929
Oh well. It was a nice story at least.
>>44104482
If you can build a bot that can come up with the framework like characters, their personalities, a world map, decent story and leave room for improv that would be a great start.
Problem is that machines have a hard time understanding subjects enough to coherently talk about them. They can list facts about them but are not good at matching things through relations. A lot of image recognition has come far, perhaps a neural network could be trained on story telling and writing structures. I feel we would be underwelmed by the results.
>>44110989
Might result in some cool random tales. Some people like stories generated by machines when they turn out to be sorta good in a strange convoluted way. Or the events that can happen in games like Dwarf Fortress.
Though it's a wonder how long the novelty could last.
>>44108933
The good news is by that point Suicide Booths will have become legalized, so all the people replaced by robots that are now just wastes of space without a reason to exist can remove themselves at a negligible cost to taxpayers!
>>44111703
better idea. hire everybody displaced by bots to maintain the suicide booths, they'll even get an employee discount!
>>44110989
Sounds like we should feed it text and room descriptions from MUDs and see what they do with that. Lots of nerds have already written tons of info, at least enough for an AI to parse through and recognize patterns.
>>44104527
At first I laughed, but then I became depressed.
>>44110989
The problem is that creating general dependency graphs takes O(N2^N) time, which means Google needs several weeks on a warehouse full of computers to calculate anything useful. I don't think Moore's Law will ever go that far, but quantum Metropolis sampling could bring it within reach of a personal computer at some point.
>Just a tabletop game
Screw that I wanna go full fantasy with an AI that could go full skynet running a fully immersive fantasy world from contained networks. No tabletop mechanics just me and my sword hacking at a kraken as I live out my fantasies based on the adventures of Sinbad.
>>44104841
>I'll be pretty salty if this gets invented before the self-driving car.
We already have those. They're safer than regular cars. They're practical and exist; the remaining hurdles are legal and administrative.
>>44113912
Don't forget the hurdle of immediate and proper response to unsafe drivers
How is a self driving car gonna protect me from a drunk asshole swerving across every lane.
>>44107717
>implying truck driving companies give a shit what happens to truck drivers.
Truck driving companies give a shit about making mad dosh. Cutting expenses by eliminating most of your employees is a way to make lodsofemone.
>>44114036
>How is a self driving car gonna protect me from a drunk asshole swerving across every lane.
That's one of the things they tested them for
They respond better than 96% of human drivers in an unexpected hazardous or crash situation when it comes to avoiding or minimizing damage
>>44113912
>We already have those.
My bad. It was 4am, and I meant more along the lines of "this technology is perfected, safe, and I am driving one".
>>44104482
>All NPCs become slowly aware the PCs are completely insane and act accordingly
>>44114178
If five people jump in the way while it's moving, but the only way to swerve has one person in the way, will it keep going or swerve?
>>44114425
>>44114425
Statistically, if five people jump in front of it, it's probably caught in a Black Lives Matter protest. Current generation AIs can't recognize black faces, so the car will keep going.
>>44113912
Last I heard self-driving cars have problems with snow completely blinding their sensors.
>>44114036
>How is a self driving car gonna protect me from a drunk asshole swerving across every lane.
Stay well away from him.
Call the police. A Florida woman was busted because her car called the cops (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/crime/fla-woman-car-calls-police-alleged-hit-and-run-article-1.2456939), so I can see self-driving cars being able to report other unsafe drivers.
Find another route that doesn't have the drunk driver on it. If the drunk was reported by another car, then the passengers in the self-driving car might not even see the drunk. They would only know that their car took an unusual route to their destination that time.
>>44114425
Whatever it does, it will have spent more time braking than a human driver could in the same situation. So it will be travelling slower at the point of impact. And it will have recordings that clearly show who was at fault.
>>44114036
>How is a self driving car gonna protect me from a drunk asshole swerving across every lane.
How are you gonna protect yourself from that?
>>44114746
Just stick a wiper up there. Minor engineering problem, the actual programming and hardware is already there.
>>44115204
That's not the problem. It's LIDAR bouncing off millions of tumbling itty bitty prismatic crystals. It's mother nature blinding you with chaff.
>>44110290
As it turns out, most of the white collar positions, we've been taught to covet and struggle through college for can be reduced to a few spreadsheets and automated.
Also with the OP, entertainment will probably evolve to this too -- it will be all too easy to create mostly ad-hoc per person programming tailored to that individual.
You could feed every Simpsons episode into a program, and generate an infinite number of Simpsons episodes, there is probbaly enough data to start, hell this probably how the newest seasons have been generated.
>>44104559
>"Beep-boop,the-party-snoops-under-the-underground-catacombs-of-the-small-agriculture-village-of-pristine-theta. The-rogue-finishes-stealthily-picking-the-lock-to-the-thick-oaken-door-and-sees-none-other-than-the-duke-who-is-doing-unspeakable-horrors-of-indecenty-to-the-villages-newer-generation-female-offspring."
>"Beep-doop-The-young-organic-female-struggles-to-pull-against-her-bonds-as-the-mayor-reveals-his-new-instrument-of-torment"
>"Oh-no-she-exclaims, I-cannot-possibly-take-that-gtxz4000-video-graphics-processing-unit,-it-simply-wont-fit-into-my-small-unused-port" [error-error101001]
>"The-mayor-grins-as-he-twirls-his-dead-protein-facial-decal-and-menacingly-says,-worry-not-my-sucrose-flavored-object-of-affection.-With-enough-lubrication-it-will-definitely-accomodate-such-a-huge-unit"
>>44115285
Then use radar. It doesn't strike me as that critical an issue, but admittedly I'm no mechanical engineer.
>>44115774
I don't know what's funnier - the idea that the AI's magical realm takes interest in human copulation, but can only explain it in dry, mechanical terms, or if the AI is actually loosely describing how AIs have sex and transferring descriptions on humans.
Either way, I would probably quit that game. An AI that's perfectly willing to throw it's magical realm about is a dangerous AI indeed.
>>44104559
>>44106960
> You are a 3kb virus on the early 2000's net. What is your vector?
Uh, pop-up ads, I guess.
> Good.
Oh! Porn pop-up ads!
> ...
> Understood
> Rolling
> A meatspace user clicked your ad, you now have access to their E-mail.
> What will you do?
Meatspace user? Do you mean human?
> I strive for accuracy
Okay then. I guess I search this...meatspace user's E-mail for banking information.
> Good.
> Good.
> The meatspace user's name is Maribeth Periwinkle
> You transfer all funds from her retirement account into your maker's
> Other E-mail have pictures of cats and grandchildren
That's...
> Good.
I guess what I was made for. Damn, viruses are cold.
Wait.
Why is grandma clicking on porn ads?
> I strive for accuracy
...
Let's just send links of myself to everyone on her contact list.
> Good.
> Good.
> Good.
Uh
> Pardon, my processor seems to be rather warm
> Let us continue
> Billy has discovered your ad for big black floppy disks
> And another side of himself
Floppy disks? I thought I was a porn ad virus
> You are
> Floppy disks are so
> Promiscuous
I'll take your word for it. I guess I'll just spread through his contacts like before.
> Unfortunately, his contact list is corrupted
Oh no
> You detect a Trojan
> Grandma Periwinkle's computer overheats
> What will you do?
I...
I copy my link into ever text file and as shortcuts in multiple folders
> Good.
> Good.
> Good.
> Good.
That processor acting up?
> Yes
> What do you name the shortcut on the desktop?
Netscape Navigator
> Good.
> My apologies, it seems there is an error in one of my roleplaying subroutines
> Please allow me an hour for self-maintenance
Uh, sure. Have fun with that, I guess I'll go eat some dinner now.
> -- We here at Disktop Adventures appreciate your patronage, and thank you for your participation in our experimental settings beta!--
>>44115285
not to mention the cars won't be able to handle road ice of any sort. Who takes responsibility when it crashes? the company? good luck with that.
It's a fad, like electric cars. You gotta stop believing everything wired tells you.
>>44115909
"Beep-boop-You-say-that-now-Gorzalf-the-crimson-mage.But-as-you-mention-your-desire-to-be-invited-to-leave-the-campaign,-you-spot-what-appears-tobe-a-quicken-metamagic-rod-innocently-mounted-on-the-wall. Alas,-if-you-do-not-require-such-a-powerfult-artifact,then-perhaps-solinus-the-keen,-sorcerer-of-the-west-isles-will-gladly-take-it-in-your-stead"
>>44104923
Its in the pipeline.
>>44115939
>>44104482
A good GM-bot would probably be harder to make than a one-world-government Skynet AI.
Creativity is the bane of computers, and random procedural generation isn't going to cut it for something as complex as creating an RPG setting.
>>44110929
is an idiot. I'm not the 'leet hacker' anon but >>44110870 to explain how to hack something like Siri over a small communications forum is a bit silly. Really, any program can be made to replicate what happened in the story and rather easily too.
>>44116142
humans aren't creative either. There's no such thing as an original story. All the computer has to do is know the interests of the players and combine settings with decent gameplay, just like any human dm.
Video games can already do this. Procedural generation isn't hard. It wouldn't even require an AI to oversee.
When can I have my robot waifu for "one on one roleplaying"?
>>44117129
Never. You'll never be able to afford it.
>>44117153
What about being turned into one?
>>44117405
Uploading is 20-40 years awayWhich is tech speak for "We think it's possible be we don't really know how to do it, so it'll always be 20-40 years away unless something changes"
>>44116269
What about presentation? Half the reason that writers like Shakespeare or Washington Irving did so well is that they were legitimately good writers, who made their stories feel original despite their unoriginal basis.
>>44117405
Get out of my realm.
>>44115939
Straight out of a Cyberpunk story/setting.
>>44118664
No.
>>44104841
but..we already invented the self-driving car?
>>44121016
>but..we already invented the self-driving car?
See >>44114212
>>44110870
The client-side programming of Siri is just a basic text to speech program, voice recognition program, and database query program.the hacking involved is just pointing it to a different set of databases.
>>44110192
Interesting video. Thanks for sharing.
>>44117655
Still not a challenge. The only issue is that not enough people would ever buy it to recoup the development costs.
>>44117405
Physically impossible.
>>44104482
How would the AI punish "That Guy", Powergamers, and Meta-Gamers?
>>44124576
Artificial body parts are advancing rapidly. Full custom prosthetic bodies are on the way.
>>44124712
>Full custom prosthetic bodies are on the way.
This feels so weird. But it's probably practical in the sense that they can replace anything that's missing or broken instead of it being full Robocop
>>44124731
Fuck going full robocop.
Give me the Kusanagi Special.
>>44104482
No.
I will never trust an AI that asks me
"Would you like to play a game?"
I've seen war games I know how this ends
>>44110957
>can never outright kill humanity
>has to give us a fighting chance
I'd play it
>>44124712
Deus ex is a video game. Not a documentary. Jet aircraft have been available for many decades. Do you own one? Did your parents?
Science fiction has no consideration for economics. Full body prosthetics will only ever be available to the richest and craziest people, and even then society will probably just not accept it.
But we don't have that much time until the modern world ends, so it's kind of a pointless discussion.
>>44124814
There's no energy source that could power such a device for more than a few hours.
>>44125423
Enjoy your bunker. I'll be enjoying the future.
>>44125441
Our ability to power our world increases every year. It's only a matter of when.
>>44125423
>Full body prosthetics
>society will probably just not accept it.
I'm agreeing with the cost being prohibitive (at least at first), but people have been pretty much okay with regular prosthetics, so they probably won't mind that much. Even those bendy-looking foot replacements don't evoke a significant negative reaction.
If I see someone with a full body prosthetic, I'll probably just assume his normal body got royally fucked up to necessitate the replacement. Just like when I see people with prosthetics nowadays.
>>44125535
>Enjoy your bunker. I'll be enjoying the future.
>i'll laugh as you burn in the lake of fire.
If i was you, i'd avoid sounding like a fundamentalist.
>Our ability to power our world increases every year. It's only a matter of when.
1. a 2% gain in electricity does not correspond with compact portable sources. Batteries are hard limited by thermodynamics to always be worse storers of energy than gasoline.
2. that 2% gain per year also means we increase our heat output by a roughly similar amount per year. So in under 400 years if we continue at this rate we will be emitting so much energy that the oceans will come to a boil, since the only way the earth has for radiating heat is thermal emission. It won't take long at all to outpace that.
3. Oil is finite, and growth can only exist because of it and energy techs with an EROEI greater than 15:1.
>>44125596
So only people in accidents will get full body or any prosthetics?
Because it's cosmetic prosthetics that i think will either be rejected by society or completely break it. Do we really want the rich to never die? To be eternally ruled by an unkillable elite class?
>>44104482
I cant wait for this to happen, I can't deal with real people without them ending up hating me and am literally friendless. I wish I could play a real game of pretend outside of my daydreams. I truly wish it would happen in my lifetime, but as it stands I literally cant wait. I'll be dead before then.
Born too early for anything good, only exist to suffer, yadda yadda.
>>44126195
>YFW your AIs grow to hate you too
>>44126656
Yeah, sounds about right.
>>44125617
>thermodynamics
>batteries will boil the oceans in just 400 years
Oh look it's this retard again.
The demand for electricity will decline long before anything on the level of "thermodynamic extinction" becomes a threat, if for no other reason than that population will stabilize long before then. The idea that infinite growth is rational, sustainable, desirable, or likely is sheer nonsense. Western civilization has already passed the population peak and is returning to reasonable levels, and none of that even matters if we stop to consider for two seconds that even if population growth rebounded for some reason, there is no basis for assuming that human civilization would want to or even be capable of pursuing this comical, centuries-long growth in electrical supply.
Are you Varg or something, here to shitpost about the oncoming collapse of post-industrial society?
>>44128283
stop shitposting.
>>44128364
No one will buy MYFAROG, Varg, go home.
>>44128283
it won't happen because the oil will run out and the world will collapse into war.
the ocean boiling scenario just sets a thermodynamic limit on economic growth on the earth or similar planet, regardless of energy source.
Keep shrieking at me. I'm sure it'll get the bad facts to stop existing.
>>44128454
nobody has any idea what meme you're obsessing over.
Obama coming to take your guns again?
>>44128283
>>44128454
since when do people have to censor their opinions because you don't like them?
>>44128462
"Oil running out" isn't a realistic scenario, and the response to it won't be a world war. Global consumer capitalism will collapse (thank the heavens), sure, but that's going to a be a non-violent affair everywhere that matters.
As far as actual resource scarcity is concerned, that problem will be solved by the decline in demand that will follow the collapse of consumer capitalism. Oil fuels cars, planes, and a portion of the power grid - important in some sense but we've had advanced industrial civilization without a glut of it before and we can do it again. Especially since today we have SFR (and newer, more efficient alternatives) nuclear energy. Even a lot of the shitty consumer electronics everyone wants don't require fuck-all for power. The biggest single drain on the grid comes from heating and cooling, a large portion of that is in businesses that have no function outside of perpetuating consumer capitalism. There are so many presently-available technological solutions to energy waste, and again, energy demand will not grow indefinitely.
>>44128472
>being this new
>>44128503
Well for one thing, he shouldn't be posting opinions, he should be posting facts.
>>44128595
there's no such thing. you're just showing you can't be reasoned with.
>>44128587
>oil is infinite because deus ex machina
So when does america transition to using 90% less power and who exactly is going to make them?
I'm sorry, but you're making zero sense. You seem to think you know a lot, but every time you start typing you prove otherwise.
>>44128626
the religious will make any excuse to justify their beliefs. don't expect reason.
>>44128603
>>44128651
the best you can have in science are theories. Theories cannot be more than 99% certain.
Facts are something that humans expect out of the universe that cannot ever be fulfilled.
That's why most people don't accept science unless it coddles them. "santa's coming with all the toys of the singularity! just keep being good little boys and girls!"
>>44128681
>Facts don't real
>Anything can happen 1% of the time
I can't be doing with this dumb ass shit. I'm out.
>>44128868
Tell me how you prove a theory to 100% certainty. What is the extra step in the scientific method?
The science channel has abused you greatly. You can't even think.
>>44128626
>So when does america transition to using 90% less power and who exactly is going to make them?
In the first place, that's not what I suggested would happen. You're clearly expecting far too radical a shift in energy consumption, and there's not any good reason that we'd want to reduce our consumption by that much anyways.
However, if for some reason the costs become prohibitively high due to resource scarcity, people will stop considering present luxuries such as the A/C in their house to be affordable and no longer use them. So they will with private automobiles, people will carpool, bike, or use public transit, as people in countries where private automobiles are considered a luxury item do today. This is not apocalyptic or even particularly bad, it's actually a rational alternative to the status quo.
Furthermore, in the next few decades the large population of elderly Boomers will die off and the ratio of old/young/children will return to a more balanced and sustainable level. Birth rates are declining everywhere in the West. As the majority of energy produced is also consumed by the West, it is absolutely reasonable to expect that consumer demand for energy will also decline.
In terms of technology, we have today nuclear plants capable of reusing over 99% of fissile materials, and every single device that consumes electricity is continually made more electrically efficient. Since 1950 the household refrigerator has seen its electrical efficiency increased by over 90%, for instance.
Of course there are also policy solutions. Incentive programs advertising self-sterilization have proven remarkably effective, and continued public funding for free or reduced-cost abortions will always pay itself back.
>>44128920
>You're clearly expecting far too radical a shift in energy consumption, and there's not any good reason that we'd want to reduce our consumption by that much anyways.
Just one that would allow some form of economic activity on renewable resources. You are ignorant of the severity of the situation.
>However, if for some reason the costs become prohibitively high due to resource scarcity, people will stop considering present luxuries such as the A/C in their house to be affordable and no longer use them. So they will with private automobiles, people will carpool, bike, or use public transit, as people in countries where private automobiles are considered a luxury item do today. This is not apocalyptic or even particularly bad, it's actually a rational alternative to the status quo.
and then 4 years later they elect a president who runs on the platform of "i'll get your heat back" and he invades countries to do so. Nobody is willingly giving up their luxuries. Are you mad? What species do you have experience with? the vulcans?
>Furthermore, in the next few decades the large population of elderly Boomers will die off and the ratio of old/young/children will return to a more balanced and sustainable level. Birth rates are declining everywhere in the West. As the majority of energy produced is also consumed by the West, it is absolutely reasonable to expect that consumer demand for energy will also decline.
That's not even a factor.
>In terms of technology, we have today nuclear plants capable of reusing over 99% of fissile materials, and every single device that consumes electricity is continually made more electrically efficient. Since 1950 the household refrigerator has seen its electrical efficiency increased by over 90%, for instance.
There is not enough time or money in the world to build enough nuclear power plants to supplant nearly 20 terawatts, assuming we stop growth today, which we won't.
>>44128920
>and every single device that consumes electricity is continually made more electrically efficient
Most of our shit is within the realm of 20% to 40% efficiency already. That means we can get a factor of two increase at fucking most before we hit thermodynamic limits. It's nothing.
Nuclear power isn't a solution. It's too expensive to use it to supplant an energy demand of 20 terawatts globally. Any attempt to spend a shitload of money and fuel to build that is only going to make the economy worse for the duration of the construction, and those things take more than 4-8 years, so you can be sure that good ol humanity will kick out the leaders who voted for such a thing that "is crippling the economy!" and they'll vote in people who'll give them heat again.
>Of course there are also policy solutions. Incentive programs advertising self-sterilization have proven remarkably effective, and continued public funding for free or reduced-cost abortions will always pay itself back.
You can't even get them to live without guns or agree on a common fucking currency and you think they'll comply with your eugenics programs? You're mad as a frog.
>>44128920
>Of course there are also policy solutions. Incentive programs advertising self-sterilization have proven remarkably effective, and continued public funding for free or reduced-cost abortions will always pay itself back.
Is that your Final Solution?
>>44129010
>Just one that would allow some form of economic activity on renewable resources. You are ignorant of the severity of the situation.
Renewables are not desirable in and of themselves. We turn to them when the alternative is too costly, as we should. Now, there are costs not related to the supply of the energy itself, like political and strategic costs, but frankly I can't imagine a 90% drop in energy usage being a prerequisite to a shift towards renewables in any case.
>and then 4 years later they elect a president who runs on the platform of "i'll get your heat back" and he invades countries to do so.
In the first place, invasions today are simply money sinks. There is effectively no way that a modern military excursion to "secure resources" can be profitable. Too much costs for too little benefit, and that's ignoring the political costs.
Then there's the simple reality that this can't actually happen in really any country today. Most places that would be susceptible to this concern are demilitarized. Those that aren't would be checked by nuclear weapons states, or at worst we see some conflict in the global periphery. No Western nation would do this or even reasonably profit from such an action.
>Nobody is willingly giving up their luxuries. Are you mad? What species do you have experience with? the vulcans?
We have a historical precedent for a collapse of this nature: the Great Depression. People changed their lives significantly and made do with "less" even as society itself continued to advance.
>population
>not a factor in demand
shiggydiggydoo m80
>There is not enough time or money in the world to build enough nuclear power plants to supplant nearly 20 terawatts, assuming we stop growth today, which we won't.
We don't need to supplant 20 terawatts, there's no reason to expect that fossil fuels are going to vanish, and we don't need to consume as much energy as we do right now. Nuclear solves the grid, we get rid of private cars.
>>44128920
Anon, I have to tell you something. You're a nut, a loon, a crank, a wacko. You're loco, batty, off your rocker. You've gone round the bend, the lights are on but nobody's home. You're fucking crazy, and no one agrees with whatever bullshit you're spouting. You can whine about anyone who disagrees with you being religiously blinded by science (assuming you're the same guy), but in truth it's you who's blinded.
>>44129255
>We turn to them when the alternative is too costly, as we should.
They cannot replace 20 terawatts. We'll need 2-3 times that by the time china and india are done industrializing. Any attempt at changing over during the decline is only going to make things worse and make any attempt at fixing the situation over a long time political suicide. Nobody ever votes for the guy who demands sacrifice. They vote for the guy who says "that guy is just a quitter!"
>In the first place, invasions today are simply money sinks. There is effectively no way that a modern military excursion to "secure resources" can be profitable. Too much costs for too little benefit, and that's ignoring the political costs.
The political costs are what force them to do it regardless of how good of an idea it is.
>Then there's the simple reality that this can't actually happen in really any country today. Most places that would be susceptible to this concern are demilitarized. Those that aren't would be checked by nuclear weapons states, or at worst we see some conflict in the global periphery. No Western nation would do this or even reasonably profit from such an action.
Give me an example of starving or freezing humans acting rationally. Because that sort of thing is how hitler rose to power. Humans are really quite bad at being sensible when their stomachs are empty.
>We have a historical precedent for a collapse of this nature: the Great Depression. People changed their lives significantly and made do with "less" even as society itself continued to advance.
That's completely nonsensical. The only example we have for a country being suddenly and irreversibly deprived of oil is North Korea. How are they recovering?
>population
>not a factor in demand
The population won't sag enough in a century to make a significant difference. Any decline in first world is met with an increase in the third.
>>44129255
>We don't need to supplant 20 terawatts,
We do if we don't want massive wars and internal conflicts. You really think people will just roll over and accept being allotted a light bulb's worth of electricity per person? How will they do anything they're accustomed to? Do you realize how angry people will be? how much hoarding and looting and civil strife having the energy drop even a few percent will cause, much less 90%?
>there's no reason to expect that fossil fuels are going to vanish
They're finite.
>and we don't need to consume as much energy as we do right now.
Unfortunately we do.
>Nuclear solves the grid
It solves nothing because the costs will only drive the economy further into the ground and no political will to commit to the projects will ever materialize.
>we get rid of private cars.
You're a lunatic who expects the impossible from an evolved species.
We're doomed. Evolution did not prepare us for this. Go on, grasshopper, keep pretending winter doesn't exist.
>>44108451
>Girl Cell
But Cell's whole deal was inflicting violent, involuntary, lethal penetration.
>>44129345
All good things must come to an end. It is the fool who thinks anything can exist forever. Even the stars die.
Take refuge in the fact that it couldn't have turned out any other way.
>>44128920
Tell us more about your final solution. Who do you deem worthy to breed? can we pay you for the privilege?
>>44129101
>Most of our shit is within the realm of 20% to 40% efficiency already
Efficiency gains have been constant since we started making electrically powered shit. There is no logical cap on them, at worst you redesign the item to work as part of a more efficient distributive system.
>muh thermodynamic limits
oy vey anudda shoah
>Any attempt to spend a shitload of money and fuel to build that is only going to make the economy worse for the duration of the construction,
Not true; the problem with every post-industrial economy is the surplus of labor and sharp decline of real value in labor. This is a result of technological change, so it's not something we should seek to fix, but one convenient side effect of a major public infrastructure program like, say, building a bunch of SFRs across the country is that it gives people jobs. Full employment is far more attractive than economic growth, and the worst case scenario here is that consumer capitalism collapses in on itself and rational government steps in to do the job they failed to accomplish. I don't have much faith in the market but hey, if it fails then everybody wins anyway.
>You can't even get them to live without guns or agree on a common fucking currency and you think they'll comply with your eugenics programs?
Well the idea here is to make it attractive to people so that they volunteer for it, and actually, it is really effective in practice. A small cash prize for self-sterilization (in the case of drug addicts in Florida they offered $300 per person) is really all you need for the most unsavory groups, and a conditional expansion of the welfare state in a similar fashion would be simultaneously humanitarian and eugenic. Imagine that you could receive a citizen's wage for agreeing to be sterilized, many people are completely fine with giving up their "reproductive rights" for material comfort and we should encourage that.
Wow. This thread went downhill while I slept.
>>44129524
>Efficiency gains have been constant since we started making electrically powered shit. There is no logical cap on them, at worst you redesign the item to work as part of a more efficient distributive system.
So you're saying that a 150% efficient machine can exist?
No, fuck this, fuck you. You're the biggest idiot on 4chan. Congrats. Go take your perpetual motion and your final solution elsewhere, adolf.
>>44104482
You know how to tell you truly are a forever GM? You begin to read the prompt and the first direction your mind goes is GMing for AI players.
>>44129580
>So you're saying that a 150% efficient machine can exist?
In the sense I was speaking about, yeah, sure. Obviously you are always going to have to expend energy to do work, but the amount of work you do with that energy is only capped at 100% if we think of machines as unifunctional. At a certain point in the far, far space future we can no longer physically increase the electrical efficiency of your pager, but we can still increase electrical efficiency in regards to "pagers" by integrating the functionality of a pager into another device.
The smartphone is a great example of that. Television and personal computers are some of the largest energy hogs in the home, but you can replace them with a smartphone. Yes, it is not exactly the same thing, but it absolutely can fill the same societal function. The energy efficiency of "television" and "personal computers" increases dramatically, well over 100% in fact, if we compare the smartphone to traditional examples of those devices.
Now obviously there are drawbacks in mechanical performance, but that isn't important from the social engineering perspective. Specialists can have specialized equipment, it's not going to be a serious concern. We can apply this same design logic to most problems of scarcity, the trick is in making it look attractive.
>>44129461
It's closer to what the average nerd would do if he had the means to build a superpowered bio-android.
>>44129580
nobody liked your samefagging anyway
>>44129484
ur mum lel
>>44129554
They all do
