Honest question: why don't American football teams just do a Hail Mary on literally every play?
>>69489250
it has a low probability of working
>>69489250
because they must respect the muslim players
>>69489277
Any actual stats to back this up?
>>69489335
no because they're not dumb enough to try it.
>>69489349
You're making your judgement based off of emotions, not logic or reason.
>>69489335
why do you think people remember the hail maries that actually work? it's a desperation play designed to be used only when there is literally no better option and you need to score
>>69489335
We don't call it a 'hail mary' because it's a high percentage play.
In my head this was about 20% of all attacks in handegg.
>>69489456
It can be.
>>69489250
AKA my strategy in Madden/NCAA Football
If it was used more often the refs would end up calling PI evry time like they could on most but since it is used so infrequently they tend to look away unless it is wildly aggresive
>>69489250
Before I make a very detailed post on why a Hail Mary every play wouldn't work can you tell me why you think it would work
>>69489712
Not OP but I would like to see your very detailed explanation, I don't know shit about football tactics, I think it would work cause shit one pass would be pretty much a touchdown, put a strong receiver and a accurate passer and that's it..
Tbh I just want to learn football tactics so please explain
>>69489861
Well a receiver's gonna get winded sprinting 50 yards down the field on every single play
>>69489250
The chances of being intercepted are way higher on a Hail Mary play. It's not just about successing or missing, if you get intercepted you lose posession.
>>69489861
A hail mary is easier to defend than most passes because:
1. The other team knows it is coming
2. The ball has to travel a long way so defenders have more time to position themselves
3. The distance also makes it a low percentage throw
Most hail marys are end of half or regulation, so the turnover doesn't really matter as much. In the middle of the game that pick could change a lot of things.
Plus nobody can throw it 80 to 100 yards in the air every play and receivers would have a hard time staying fresh.
>>69489861
Honestly, there are some teams where this attempt is more viable than others. The Vikings in the early 00s had Randy Moss in his prime. Cullpepper wasn't super accurate but he could just lob the ball downfield. DBs are shorter than receivers and Moss would just go up and get the ball. It was super frustrating.
>>69489390
That play was awesome. The Lions had a huge lead in the half and dominated the Packers only to lose it at the very last play. Toppest of kek
>>69489250
Imagine playing on the defense of a team who's offense spends 2 minutes and 30 seconds on the field per half.
Assuming throwing bombs worked even 50%, it would be hard to outscore a team with a traditional offense in the 4th quarter.
>>69491176
It was the second most lions way to lose. The first is to get your best player thrown out for really egregious personal fouls
I will do a quick run down of why it won't work.
To win a football game you need to score over 2 points a possession on average.
To break it down to a nice even mark on 7 possessions you should net over 14 points to win consistently... Meaning you score a TD on 2 possessions out of 7 possessions.
Assuming if you hit a hail mary it means you score a TD you need to need to hit on average 2 every 7 possession (assuming 3 downs that is 2 in 21 tries (assuming you punt on 4th).
About a 1 in 10 chance for a Hail Mary seems about right. However you are also more likely to be intercepted than score a TD if a team knows you are doing it. And an Int ends a drive instantly.
I will not do out all the math being even assuming a hail mary gives you a TD (which it probably won't if you toss them up at the 20 yards line which you would do most of the time). You still overall are stastically below your 2 points per possession needed.
Also as an added statistical side effect using this strategy extends games which makes your loss more likely as you get into the statistical long run.
>>69489712
Profit: Touchdown or Redzone
Risk: Turnover in non-dangerous territory unless returned properly or loss of down
>>69491389
On a side note giving a hail mary a 1 in 10 chance is probably being generous.
Several hail marys are attempted each season. There have been maybe 5 or 6 competed hail marys in the last 10 years
>>69489437
We call it a 'hail mary' because it is the most graceful play in football
>>69491414
>turnover in non-dangerous territory
That's not how a turnover on downs works
>>69489972
the corners and safeties will get tired too
just load up on speed demons and sub them out. rotate every other play.
nfl teams don't use unlimited subs to their advantage enough. it's an exploit that can win the league.
>>69489250
Aaron Rodgers is one of the few qbs who can chuck the ball extra far and still retain accuracy. Also hes lucky
>>69491633
>on downs
I thought we were talking 1st to 3rd down hail maries
>>69489250
If you got to be an adult male knowing this little about football, your father was a failure. Or wasn't around.
>>69491690
Or wasn't an alcoholic factory worker
>>69491668
Teams are making subs every couple plays
>>69490065
this is why. if you look closely at most hail mary passes, there either a massive crowd of opposing players milling about where the ball goes or at the very least an equal number to the intended recievers
>>69489250
There will be a day when we wont be able to see this fanny bandit drop 60+ yard bombs on people, and that makes me sad.
And that's coming from dem Boys for life
>>69489250
Not everyone has Aaron Rodgers as a quarterback
>>69491846
But any NFL QB/Backup QB can huck a football 70 yards.
>>69491902
with the same accuracy, or last long enough in/outside the pocket for the target to get down field?
Its like soccer teams sending the keeper on the last play of the game.
>>69489861
Coverages change. You throw a Hail Mary consecutively the defense is going to bring a blitz that will get to the QB before he throws the ball
Hail Marys suck
>>69489280
underrated
>>69491624
Underated top kek
red pill me on handegg
>>69489250
>Why don't offensive coordinators chuck the ball up into a hodgepodge of 3 DBs and 2 WRs on every play where it's more or less chance as to who catches it?
>>69489861
>the blitz
If you send everyone downfield you run out of potential blockers.
>jump ball
A real hail mary is essential a jump ball, there are no routes to keep running. It's almost 50/50 to who jumps highest or gets the tip.
Are there many high-flying, knees on shoulders catches in NFL? Is it viable?
Seems to be plenty of them in AFL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_OZrZbQV3o
Same reason the hockey goalie isn't replaced with an extra attacker for the entire game.
>>69492169
mexico gets it
you're basically exposing yourself to an interception on every play
