For a team to be eliminated on 4 points 5 of these 6 conditions have to be met and you have to have the worst GD.
>1
ROM ALB - ROM win
>2
SVK ENG - SVK draw / win
>3
NI GER - NI win / draw
>4
CZE TUR - CZE must win
>5
ITA ROI - ROI must win
>6
HUN POR - POR must win
ICE AUS - Not a draw
someone should do the odds on this but basically its not happening.
4+ pointers get here and celebrate lads!
>>68642268
I can't wait for NI GER I hope they place them correctly :)
England. Controlling damage before the damage is done
>>68642566
Nah
>>68642328
I am a bit doubtful of 2 points getting you at best 16%.
>>68642606
look at previous world cup results, i think 2 points would have got you through this system like maybe one time out of the last 6 world cups or so.
>>68642328
So according to this England (4 points, 1 GD) have a 100% chance of going through
Sweet
>>68642606
>>68642654
average result is like
4
4/3
3
3
3/2
3/2/1
>>68642684
>we can still lose gd in the next game (guaranteed to be atleast -1 since it would be a loss for us to remain on 4 points)
also worth bearing in mind that is rounded up to 100%, not absolute 100%.
>>68642606
Why, does it seem too low or too high?
since the switch to 3 point per win system
>3,5% of the 3rd placed teams had 1 point
>15% of the 3rd placed teams had 2 points
>42% of the 3rd placed teams had 3 points
>36,5% of the 3rd placed teams had 4 points
>1% of the 3rd placed teams had 5 points
>2% of the 3rd placed teams had 6 points
It's hard to be in the top 4 out 6 with just 2
>>68642268
We're going to do it lads. It's ours.
>>68642328
is this tailored to this Euro, i.e. current standings, or what?
>>68642859
counted pre tournament
>>68642887
Nonsensical then.
Example: All groups end with 6 6 6 0.
>>68642328
This is blatantly not correct. It's definitely possible to go out on 4 pts+ positive gd
>>68643045
I didn't make it but it's not based on what's theoretically possible but either on previous results or a simulation
>>68643161
I think stimulation + rounding up might be an explanation. Basing it on previous results seems quite irrelevant
Really don't like this new system. What happens if a country shares the same points, GD and GF as another from another group? I know it's unlikely but still, theres a chance of it happening.
>>68643493
coin toss
>>68642268
Play third match
Don't know if qualified
At least we have 4 points. I tried to see if it's possible for us not to qualifiy and yes, if we lose like 4-0 and all the other 3rds finish with 4 points. Unlikely however.
>>68642910
its rounded up to 100% m8, statistically its probably like 0.000000001 or something. dumb germans.
Reminds me of this scenario.
>>68644134
>Norway
>>68644134
4 teams win and lose all manage on 0 df, that is fucking unlikely.
What meme world cup is this from that had 24 teams? 94 or something?
>>68643938
So what you're saying is it's incorrect?
We have symbols to indicate closeness to 100%.
>>68644401
Yes, 94, it was the most unlikely scenario possible for this kind of tournaments. Had Mexico won only 1-0 against Ireland it would have been a fucking mess to resolve who was first and who was second..
>>68644553
There's also something called statistical irrelevancy
