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>Down sums in the last 2 days editions
All in on Linlithgow Rose sub-edition
Previous thread >>64392277
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LAY LVG HE WON'T BE SACKED
1st for virgin click
Reminder that Utah State -6.5 and Temple -2 are the plays today.
Reminder I'm due to get BTFO too
Reminder
>>64402889
Bovada has -7 @1.83, took that and the special teams/defense prop.
>>64402889
think o50 is the play in the temple toledo game
Just put a curse on Trouville sub sub edition
>>64402889
Any basketball?
>>64402899
Both teams are actually decent defensively, so I'm not touching it, but if I had to I'd take the unders.
>>64402904
Let me check. Just woke up
Cancelling Christmas after the way today has gone tbqhwy
>you will never be an indoor soccer JUDGE
>>64402904
youd have to be a madman to take his basketball tips
>>64402889
would you take -7.5 and -2.5
w i n d f o
>>64402904
>prestaking hoop
Loads of college basketball tonight. Any of you lids have any good tips?
>>64402960
I'd buy a half a point on the -7.5. -2.5 should be fine
>>64402981
>>64402904
On Auburn +4 here in ten minutes, but not terribly confident on it. Just going small
>>64402856
Solid Wick team desu. Not missing as many players as expected
https://twitter.com/lucas1official/status/679372733004832768
>prestaking
>>64403035
So he got on at 2.4 and now it's 2.75, how the fuck can he cash out for more?
>>64403027
Any + or dnb would have been nice. Even with F A T I T G U E think there's no longer a bet anymore. Although hearing rumours the bus had hardly any leg room and Sean in nets is really tired.
>>64403067
Where is it 2.75? Superlenny?
>>64402985
wouldn't it be better to buy a whole point so utah st only needs a TD to win instead of pushing?
>>64403027
All. In.
>>64403085
I mean you can, but I doubt the price would be worth it
>>64403092
Andy Robson Tips @AndyRobsonTips 37 secs38 seconds ago
BET 1:
Over 0.5 first half goals in the Linlithgow v Wick match when odds hit 1.30.
Match is in the Scottish Cup and about to KO!
Too many birds these days
>>64403084
>>64403082
Had a mare, thought he was saying it was 2.75 now (had to convert from meme fractions)
Taking everything desu. It all wins.
>>64403035
Who is this guy?
>>64402889
I'm on Utah State but I took Toledo +3. Sagarin rankings actually have them as a slight (0.38 to 0.12) favorite in a neutral stadium with a very similar strength of schedule (within 10 places o eachother). Temple has lost to 2 top 30 teams (one of them being top 10 though) while Toledo beat 1 top 3 team. My other elo resources pretty much agree it's as close to a coin flip as you're going to get so I'll take the plus. Toledo being solid for me all year does factor in too though.
I always dislike going against >Ameribets on college football but I I'm about 50% when I do anway
on +1 large
>>64403137
Don't know, looks like a muggy cunt who needs his chin testing desu.
>>64403144
Toledo beat a top 30* team
>>64403085
>wouldn't it be better to buy a whole point so utah st only needs a TD to win instead of pushing?
you would probably lower the payout to the point that the bet was actually -EV if you did.
DAC
Excellent, now I can reback
Head's gone
1111111111111111111111111
Today bb
Atenas - Tabare: Atenas SW or small minus. Tabare has lost every single match and is looking like they will lose all the rest. Atenas despite being the second worst team is still with hopes of escaping relegation, and in good form after winning the derby against Aguada
Larre - Bigua: Bigua is crashing with no survivors but they shouldn't lose by a lot, I think match is close and +13.5 on them will suffice. They may even win so don't get on Larre minus (minuses are almost never value in this league due to the way bookies price and underdogs fucking shit up)
Olimpia - Urunday: Olimpia won't play at home due to a sanction. Both teams have the top ppg foreigners, their shooting guards. This means that the match can really go either way depending on who's on good form. Even though Olimpia has a good streak, I see Urunday as the favorite, and if they get ahead they can btfo Olimpia. If for some chance of destiny there's a +8.5 for Urunday I think it's good. Same as +15.5 for Olimpia. Though both are unlikely, or happening very late in which case they won't be value. Also I think the match will be closer than that, but I always expect big pluses to be safe instead of small ones (like yesterday) to end up sweating. Even though lower pluses are value I preffer to be more certain of winning. Rambling so much about the match with the least value shaking my head
Aguada - Bohemios: Due to the way both teams play a +10.5 on any of them is good, as it'll be close, I don't see more than 12-13 points of difference. If you see said handi wait for it to increase, and when it starts to bounce back jump on it.
Starts in 4 and half
hahahahahaha
>trusting virgins with my money
Love it when everyone gets on a secret bet then it loses.
Just counted up and if Linlithgow don't win I'm down 5.2k today.
Rebacked HUGE
Walking the dog
>>64403196
>secret bet
Wut?
>>64403196
>in the OP
>secret
pick 1 lad
>>64403216
This scottish cup game. I mean I know what the bet is, but it was only pseudo-tipped.
>>64403147
huuuuup
Pretty happy we've conceded. Wick WILL tire late on. Just means I'll win more later in the game.
This cant go on
>>64403196
>secret
It is LITERALLY the OP.
Cant stop re-backing
>>64403104
>>64403172
it changes from -110 to -125, doesn't seem that big change to me while only needing a one TD differential is huge
Just topped up again
Top me up me mama. Top me mama. Top up when we concede first.
Fucking little pisstakers couldn't do this in the first game could they?
Are you lads getting on SW or -1?
>>64403256
rebacking +1.25 med
Crying. Can't win a bet. Done the year's profit so far this month. All that hard work. Down the. Drain.
>muh odds movement
>muh distance
People are just memeing aren't they? Nobody is actually on Linlithgow are they?
>>64403085
>>64403172
Bovada doesn't let you buy a whole point on that game but even if you buy a half point you've shifted the odds such that Utah State has to have at least a 72% chance of winning by 7 or more in order for the bet to be +EV. A $10 dollar bet in that case would be worth $10.16 in the long run.
Tears. Wick flew over earlier today you mongo's, they're as fresh as a daisy and eying up that juicy match v Forfar.
In too deep tbqh nothing to do but keep topping up
>>64403271
>Aftertiming
zzz
Anything above evens was value. Just because it's losing doesn't make it a bad bet/meme.
>>64403226
>pseudo-tipped
You're making big sense there pal. It has been discussed quite clearly in the thread. Do you want Euan to wipe your arse for you too as well as spoonfeed every tip?
>>64403301
>aftertiming
It's 14 minutes in and I was asking a question you dull little fuck
>tfw missed this bet
on -1 from now though, they'll have a comeback right
>>64403316
Funny you ask it after we've conceded you scruffy meff.
Going in for another nibble
>>64403335
>we've
You playing today mate?
why is this tipped? rball is pretty even
>>64403246
>>64403274
I'm just giving you the numbers m8, use them as you will. I'm on at -7 -115 and that's a +2% better in terms of the chance of the event happening. Doesn't sound like much but as a sports bettor you live and die in a margin of about 4%. Use the info as you will lad.
>>64403360
Euan is shitposting as anon to get a better price on the +. He is known for doing this.
>>64403144
>Toledo beat an Arkansas that lost to Tech and A&M
All of yesterdays winnings on Temple tbqh. Saw enough in the Notre Dame game to believe they won't let Toledo run all over them.
>>64403349
pmsl
dafc
>>64403358
Listen buddy, I know the Lithlithgow team like the back of my hand, watch them week in/week out. And yeah I did have trials there as a kid, problem?
>Imagine not being on the minus
HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP HUP
L I N L I T H G O W R O S E
>>64403374
I'm only on Toledo small and may very well end up reversing my position in play, I just thought that +3 offered value.
GOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAL
>imagine not being able to suck your own dick
-ev tbqh
>>64403389
>aftertiming
thought you were above that desu mate, lost respect
Greece BTFO lmfao HUP
>>64403412
Do people now have to announce every time they take someone elses tip?
>Deleting post
>>64403412
>Wanting me to tip a tip that was already tipped.
Plus I staked about 2 minutes before they scored.
>>64403412
He always aftertimes, worst for it.
>>64403399
From what I've seen over the years, teams with coaches leaving for other jobs typically don't do well in bowl games
>bovada will never offer in-play on the games that /bet/ is on
LAND
RED GOING TO BE UP BRAINS LMAO
IMAGINE getting a red whilst I was rebacking. Not sure how to feel about it now
>>64403428
Would have been nice to see you mention you were on before that's all. I consider you quite the judge and would have helped me make a decision.
WICK LOSING THEIR MINDS
Big central midfielder just pulled out a 2x4 and hit the ref. Shouting some nonsense about his wife leaving him PMSL
Wick are going to be so TIRED. Chasing the game with only TEN men. Doing so after being sat on a rusty bus with no leg room for well over FIVE hours. IMAGINE being on the +. I'm laughing at the thought.
>He didnt PEPPER all the -s before the goal
P M S L
>>64403451
>Me
>Judging British football
Nah mate. Probably the competitions I lose the most on.
>>64403374
>>64403399
to add to that my use of sagarin rankings are at about 62% correct for ncaaf but on the other hand my algorithm would actually spit out a DNB for this game, if only marginally. Bowl games are more tightly priced as well though, the algorithm hasn't been through a bowl season yet
WICK ACADEMY HEAD HAS GONE
PMSL just spoke to a mate at the game. The red card was because their left back was SO TIRED, he took a quick nap, problem is he was SLEEPTALKING. He only went and told the REF to "eff of" in his SLEEP. Ref had no option. Unbelievable scenes.
>>64402889
>>64403365
>>64403144
Akron is going to win... You're on the wrong side of the line. Abandon ship or Abandon all hope
Do we dare on a cheeky LR HT result?
>not actually all in on Linlithgow
>>64403485
I love this gimmick desu. Honestly makes me laugh every time.
Just been catching up with the /bet/ ! seen a bit of banter from the lads interesting
>>64403481
Curious about betting algorithms, I have a few friends studying probability. What can you consider meaningful data? And what distributions do you use?
WICK asking for a 'timeout'. Think they've got the wrong sport. Heads are well and truly GONE. BIG NO.9 GARY WEIR just lying in the penalty area. pmsl laughing
>>64403486
Akron winning is a possibility, but it would be a statistical anomaly considering they've beaten 0 (zero) teams with a winning record this year
22222222222222222222222222222
DOING LAPS AROUND THE FLAT CELEBRATING
22222222222
4 Linlthgow players fast asleep.
>>64403502
>actually bottled getting on this
S U M S
U
M
S
The Wick players are FUMING. It's well past their bed time. They are so CRANKY.
rebacking every goal LARGE
>tfw responsible for at least a third of Linlithgow posts but don't have a penny on.
>>64403545
M A R E
A
R
E
>>64403545
>Linlthgow players
Wick player posting from the bench detected. IMAGINE being so tired and F A T I G U E D you can't even get the team right
Imagine not being on up so much
Ref thinking about calling it off lads, GARY WEIR just got out his inflatable bed. Set it up just outside the penalty area. TIRED
>>64403562
Im not on either. Can never tell if people are being serious when they shitpost this intensely.
3333333333333333333
INSANE MONEY
333333333333333
>>64403592
I think Euan is on but pretty sure it's only 2 or 3 people on pmsl.
Conso @conanm123 2 mins2 minutes ago
Whoever is on Linlithgow go collect ur winnings !!! Wick players have given up here ... goalie is asking for a pillow and a blanket !!!
>>64403517
>Curious about betting algorithms, I have a few friends studying probability. What can you consider meaningful data? And what distributions do you use?
I honestly just track how various elo systems perform against the spread. when x elo system says the spread should be -Z for the home team and it's actually less than that, by how much, is it different when it predicts a +/- for a home team vs an away team? what numbers do you do then? that kind of thing.
I doubled in physics and math so I want to get a LOT more sophisticated by I also have a big boy job and travel full time for work so it's tough. Just enterimg the data is at least 90 minutes a week. And that doesnt count evaluating results/writing and implementing better code (those twords being the hard part). Being 28 sucks.
need 2 more Linlithgow goals like A I R
>>64403612
I'm this >>64403027 guy. I'm on and I should have probably made it clearer that it was still a bet. Just annoyed I didn't get more on desu
No excuse not to be up 4 figures from this. None.
bubblegum babbies zzzzzzzz
>>64403666
Was wondering how long it would take for you to post that
Just told the kids we're having M&S turkey this year, they're gathered round the fireplace singing christmas carols.
>>64403666
>he didn't max stake 3 times on Pinny
>>64403674
muh teamsheet bet that's only winning because of a red card zzzz sending me to sleep with the wick players
-1AH?
Will pay a yuro to set up a 365 for me, make me an offer I can't refuse
>>64403517
>Curious about betting algorithms, I have a few friends studying probability. What can you consider meaningful data? And what distributions do you use?
Also, DVOA is really good for the NFL but it's proprietary and complicated, difficult as hell to even derive what they use which is hard enough with simple Elo systems.
Main stream specials do exist though they're usually tied to injury. For example the Seahawks were -11 against the Ravens with Pickles Clausen starting at QB. But the thing was, when you plugged in DVOA of mostly Flacco games and 1 Matt Schaub game the Seahawks were only -8.5 point favorites by my model (which is usually annoyingly close to vegas lines). Meaning the Market was essentially pricing a step down from Flacco to Clausen as only a 3-4 point difference. IN what UNIVERSE is Clausen only 4 points per game worse than Flacco? No universe. Not to mention the fact that the Hawks were red hot coming off a Steelers win and had blanked Clausen earlier in the season. I shilled that one to high heaven but I don't trip so meh.
>>64403710
500 for a losing one lad
>>64403710
are the euros still accepting refugees? could I slip in with the syrians?
>>64403697
>thinking its just a teamsheet bet
>can't research himself
zzzzz
Sums. Absolute sums.
>>64403710
will also accept 500 for a losing one
down £2k overall, even after making £500 from this match
>>64403740
Alright chill out mate, anyone would think this is your first ever winning bet.
HELLO WHATS THE BET
>>64403761
Honestly lad, where are you from? Would love to fight you.
>>64403766
Utah state handis, 8 bings left.
>>64403770
Are you the lad from Surrey?
>>64403816
Nope, Southend mate. Come down for a scrap, if you beat me fair enough. We'll have a pint afterwards.
Luxton aftertiming again.
>>64403848
I actually have a mate in Southend. Wonder if it's you.
>>64403848
Going to the derby on boxing day lid?
>>64403886
I'm a Leyton Orient fan lid.
Is this the future of betting?
>cryptic tips
>aftertiming
>fabricating the truth
>gloating
>revelling in others misfortune
Stop this world - I want to get off
>>64403900
>>64403900
Tempted to start going to the O's next season as it's my local club now and tickets are pretty cheap.
>the banter chants at guys watching the game from their flats behind the corner flags
Terrific stuff
>>64403910
You seem salty lid?
just realized ive left my new star wars battlefront game at the till in asda
TEARS
>>64403930
Yea, get yourself down their lid. We'll meet up for a pint pre game. Have a burger (voted the worst in England).. Test some cunts chins if need be. Rite laff tbqh
>>64403910
zzz
wah wah go go ga ga. Sick of spoonfeeding limp wristed, leftie student cunts like you.
>All this blue
4444444444444444
>didn't reback
Who's up for one more reback then lads?
No excuses to not be up four, pushing five figures on this game. Looking like it's going to a be a world christmas now lids
>>64404050
I took it
up so much from this game
>>64404064
>>64404050
Aye I'm with ya. -0.75
Fatigue should be kicking in HARD
Akron SURREAL
>>64404093
2nd red lmao
>>64402928
>>64402856
reminder that following any tips other than metaKnight tips is -ev
RED CARD
E
D
C
A
R
D
>wick trying to get men sent off so it can be abandoned
Havent been up so much for quite some time
>>64404093
I got on -1.25 and -1 for above evens btw
>And lucky to still have 10 as cld easily had another couple off! This is the best we have played this season. Exposing their full backs at every opportunity.
Was in the process of posting this before actually rebacking myself
Wick's heads gone.
Difference between a brit and an American tip.
AMERICAN: >>64402889
Wick players truly out of control here. Davie Allan just gave the ref a PEDIGREE. Wouldn't be surprised if they get this CALLED OFF. Well and truly LOST their HEADS. Absolute farce.
>>64404137
thanks for this Euan, btw
>this Christmas capcha
up insane.
>>64404145
kek, here's your (You)
BRIT: >>64402856
>>64404145
>football games are 4 and half minutes long
Anyone missed this ?
Bet of the day desu
>>64404145
Your point is? Wick scored first too you clown.
Euan so lucky. No edge to the bet, if Wick players kept their cool it would be a close game. What was his info anyway? M-muh journey, worse than Mackers ffs.
>>64404169
Nah they're usually 11 mins long with 4 hours of hotdog breaks.
Would love to test your Chinchinnati, cunt.
Wick 9 men. Second booking for blatant dive in box !!!!
It wasn't a dive he was just SO tired.
>>64404145
Was hoping for at least a seething little slug desu
>>64404185
pmsl
Great punt for Utah State. Hope you lads are ready for a pick 6 :)
>>64404190
>implying a weak wristed could handle a 6'2" 200 pound slav
you saw me coming down an alley you'd be going the other way m8
>>64404185
>claims it was no edge
>what was the info
Tears desu. I found the info in the same place as I found this >>64404136 if you want to go find it yourself
>>64404218
Hard to get a pick 6 when they run the ball every play ;)
Dizzy at the amounts I'm up here.
>>64404232
>slav
MUH ERRYTIJ
-1 @ 2 was a gift
>>64404235
>Long journey
Nothing else to it.
>>64404240
That's ok. Utah State is blending in with the field because of their uniforms. Akron is going to get cheeky and try a long pass right into the hands of a camouflaged defender. Tears if you aren't on the field color fix.
555555555555
LOVING EVERY LAUGH
ok, one more reback?
Wick players YAWNING. They just want to get this over and done with and go HOME already.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
pseudos out in force tonight
if you're up from this game you're a bad gambler
value was on the +
>>64404264
Sure. Ok.
>>64404293
This. Lucky red cards, lucky mugs. I'm sure their winnings will be gone by the new year though.
>>64404293
Love this gimmick tbf
>>64404293
lmfao
>>64404293
MARK???
cant stop rebacking
>>64404319
Hey Euan. I have the scores to the three Israeli slags games today, as a bit of fun guess them. No checking either ;)
> 1) Bnot Sakhnin v Maccabi Kishronot
> 2) Academy v Tivka
> 3) Beer Sheva v Kiryat Gat
One more goal from the Rose for equations tbqhwy
>>64404360
0-0
0-0
0-1
>>64404348
neither desu, unhealthy amounts
Need 1 more goal or I'm down from the game. Been pretty much martingaling since the red. Disgusted with myself but stopping when they score the next goal, will be up stupidly big sums, most profitable game of all time.
1 more pls.
5-2
REBACKERS BTFO
>everyone missing the tasty -handis on Macclesfield
Anyone on the college hoops tonight?
>>64404360
1-8
2-4
0-11
Would have taken minus in any game
one more pls
>>64404411
0-6
1-0
0-20
Think Academy won 1-0 could have lost though.
>>64404375
same situation
sweating so hard
>>64404411
Just checked. Feel unbelievably ill that they werent carried.
Anyone else flip their position on this akron game?
Going to be down on the game now zzz
>>64404427
>Academy beating HPT
I dont believe it. Source on that one?
>>64404434
from recent games, they have low scoring first quarters barring the game vs boise state
no idea why they can't get a first down though
if they don't get anything running by mid quarter, i'll personally just lump on akron ml
>>64404431
desu the academy mixup would probably stop me going too far up from the games, I would've gone large at 1-0
Even for the day because I level staked with College handegg shite. Kill me.
There are people in this thread not on the virgins fix UTTER
Coral have voided the Linlthgow game... WHAT
>>64404506
what is THE virgin click fix of the day?
I saw the funniest bet365 trap the other day on dota, did anyone fall into it?
>>64404533
Yellow Submarine about to put money in my pocket lid
>>64404533
YES
cheeky gift wrap captcha PMSL
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/35158436
>Women in charge of fixing
>>64404549
shame we couldn't reback after house problems desu
DAFC
>>64404557
>$9
Up silly
>>64404557
>An Australian cricketer has received a two-year suspended sentence for bets totalling Aus $9 (£4.36) during the 2015 Cricket World Cup.
>Ruining your career over the equivalent of 2 quality hamburgers
>>64404557
>penny punting slags
>>64404498
Pretty sure that us 1-0 HPT famalam. Hebrew is right to left. Would have been down if they were on a -1.5. Might have squeezed a -1 based on last season still. Rest would have certainly covered whatever line they got. Praying Thursdays game is carried. Probably last potential misprice after they chose to shit it on these games.
>>64404586
Top post
these offenses are shit and this game is shit
>>64404549
which tournament was it? marsTV?
>>64404593
Yeah reckon you're right, will find out for sure tomorrow morning anyway
>>64404626
Hitbox Elite Cup
Utah getting refballed
Whatever happened to
>muh laying
Does nobody lay anymore these days?
>teenagers in charge of doing anything on a football field.
Absolute trash, that was a touchdown.
What a bet
What a day
What a month
What a year
Good night and god bless
